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Published on Saturday, 12 September 2015 16:38

Vuelta Stage 21

Alcalá de Henares to Madrid

Sat 12th Sept, 97.8kms 

So Astana did it, Aru did it. A brilliant bit of tactical racing on the penultimate climb finally blew Dumoulin and he finally was dropped. Well done to Aru, we'll take the 8/1 winner on him, but I'd have been far happier seeing Dumoulin win the race. So on to the final stage, a ridiculously short stage at just 97.8kms that finishes with 10 laps of a 5.8km circuit.

So a nice way to finish the race with a fantastic 66/1 winner in Ruben Plaza. I was a bit worried when I saw him going with, what, 110kms to go, but boy, what an amazing ride. Sean said he hadn't a chance, Carlton said he was struggling with 60kms to go but I was quietly confident. He was still powering away in the big ring while the bunch behind were going nowhere.

I kept the faith and was trying to lay him at 4/1 as I had also backed him at 75s on Betfair, but then the gap dropped around the 60km to go mark and people were laying him at 16/1. So I went back in again for another point at 16s and then laid out at evens about an hour later! Added to that, De Marchi also did the business to land place money at 100/1, although as was pointed out to me this afternoon I had put win only on the tip. Hopefully some of you backed him each-way at prices around 66/1 or 50/1. 

A short preview today as I am out tonight, celebrating a friend's 40th and a very big win today!.

The Route

A westerly run for 40kms and then a 5.8kms circuit around Madrid, not much more to say about it! It's almost completely flat with three 180° bends and a pretty long straight finish for over 1km. 

Contenders and Favourites

No prices out at time of publishing, I'll try to add something tomorrow on the prices that are available in the morning. There aren't many sprinters in the race though, so you'd have to look at the likes of Degenkolb, Van der Sande, Drucker, Gerrans, Impey. I would imagine Degenkolb will be pretty short, but the mood in the Giant-Alpecin camp will be pretty low tonight after Dumoulin blowing up today and losing out on even a podium spot, something he had traded at 1/50 for. They will be desperate to make amends though and take something out of the race, they have missed out on several stages that they should have won. I think they will be tired tomorrow, and if Degenkolb is around evens I might leave it, 2/1 or so will get me interested.

Instead, I will look at some prices later and try to pick out a value bet instead. Stay tuned, but it could be lunchtime tomorrow! I'm off to watch the TOB in London then though so will be out all afternoon. Enjoy the last stage, really pleased to have finished the race with a nice winner, hopefully this week with Schleck and Bodnar too, you guys got a lot of the cash back from what had been a pretty tough race to find winners from.. 

EDIT: 11.45am. 

So the price on Degenkolb is even shorter than I expected, best price 4/6. An interesting fact on this race is that out of the five sprints we've had, there have been five different winners, and Degenkolb hasn't been one of them.. He clearly has the  best lead-out train at the race, and on paper he is by far and away the best sprinter in the race. He was superb on the stage to Avila, chasing down Valverde and then leading Dumoulin in the cobbles to help him get away from Aru. He looked very strong that day and he should be too strong for these guys if he gets it right today.

But what's the moral like this morning in the camp? I'd say pretty low, I can't imagine it was a very lively breakfast table this morning and was pretty quiet I'd say. Will they be able to pick themselves up after such a blow yesterday, to not only lose the race but a podium spot too? I think that the mood will be low, but the motivation to go out on a high will be huge. Degenkolb needs a win, Giant need a win, Dumoulin needs to be part of the win to lift themselves off the floor. Once they get on the bikes I think their desire to win the stage will come through and yesterday will be forgotten about. I think they will be there en masse at the front coming to the last 5kms and I wouldn't be surprised to see Tom Dum taking some huge pulls at the front to try to pay the team back for all the work they put in over the last three weeks. 

Will they get help though if a break goes? It's a short stage and it's going to be really fast once they get on to that circuit in Madrid, it will become a big crit race for the last 50kms. A strong break with guys like Cummings, Bodnar, Oliveira could build up a big lead and G-A might not get a whole lot of help. MTN should help for Sbaragli and Trk should for Van Poppel, so they should be able to keep the break on a tight enough leash. But as we saw in the Giro, a strong break can win these sorts of stages if the bunch dithers and dallies too much. 

Sbaragli was impressive when he won his sprint, can he repeat? I didn't think so in the sprint that followed his stage victory, and he finished something like 7th on that day. The 18/1 on him is a bit attractive, but I am not all that confident that he'll podium today. Danny Van Poppel was very impressive with his stage win too, he showed he has a really fast top gear once he got going, and Trek did a great job towards the end of the stage to put him in the right position. I think he is capable of a podium spot again but 5/1 is a bit tight.

The man that nearly won the stage that day though, Daryl Impey, looks a bit more attractive at 25/1 with some bookies, but those that are going 25/1 are only paying 1/5 the odds for a place, those that are going 1/4 the odds are only 20/1, so the same thing basically if he places, better return if he wins on the 25/1 obviously! I think he could be up there again today, he has been looking strong and OGE have some decent engines left in this race to bring him to the front in the last 3kms. He is a wily old boy who knows his way around a messy finish, which I expect it to be, and he could pounce for a place at least. 

Van Asbroeck, Drucker and Richeze are all going to be involved too but I think they are 4th to 10th place riders. Alejandro Valverde is sure to be sprinting though as the Points Jersey is still up for grabs, he is only 2pts off the lead and there are points awarded all the way down to 15th place. All he needs to do is finish in 13th place or better with Rodriguez out of the picture and he wins the jersey. He has done this before to Purito, it could be another case of Deja Vu for him. Movistar are sure to rally around him and the likes of Amador and Visconti will deliver him with a chance of a top 10 finish I reckon. 

So Degenkolb is the most likely winner, 4/6 is a bit short, but if you want to play up winnings from yesterday, he's a pretty safe bet I think. What I am going to do though for a bit of fun is to double him up with Viviani in the Tour of Britain stage today. I thought he was unlucky yesterday, He looked faster than Greipel at the end and it was only a brilliant bike lunge from Greipel won him the stage. Viviani could be faster today and Sky will be fired up to win the final stage to cap a great week for them. the double pays 4.85/1, it's getting 2pts from me. On the match bets, Impey to beat Maes should work at 4/6 and Van der Sande to beat Rojas should land as well, Rojas will probably be helping Valverde get the points he needs and may not be involved in the finish, VDS should be.  

Recommendations -

Degenkolb and Viviani double - 2pts at 4.85/1

Daryl Impey - 0.5pts each-way at 25/1 with Coral 

Matchbets

3pts on Van der Sande to beat Rojas at 8/13

2pts on Impey to beat Maes at 4/6