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Published on Friday, 11 September 2015 23:08

Vuelta Stage 20

San L. de El Escorial to Cercedilla

Sat 12th Sept, 175.8kms 

So it all comes down to this then, a long and hard day in the saddle that takes them over the same climbs twice, once from each side, on an out and back sort of route that should make for a fantastic climax to a brilliant Vuelta. 3,585m of climbing and 3,325m of descending will sap whatever strength is left in the riders legs after 3,250kms. 

It's extraordinary to think that after 19 stages and over 3,800kms (over 3,900 if you count the long neutralized zones!) that the top two in the GC are separated by just 6". It's been a great Vuelta, with superstars embellishing their already blossoming reputations - Chaves, Dumoulin, Aru and Meintjes, and some of the old guard showing they still have it - Schleck, Valverde, Rodriguez, Zubeldia and Roche. Omar Fraile has been a surprise winner of the KOM, I have no idea what price he was before the race, I don't think he was even listed. Torres unfortunately got a fever early in the race, but looks like he'll finish just outside the top 3, unless he gets in the break tomorrow..

The battle for the points jersey rages on though, there's still nothing in it and it could either way to Rodriguez or Valverde - I am of course hoping Valverde wins as it was one of the bets I liked the most at the start of the race, but even the abandonment of Sagan didn't look like it was going to save us as Rodriguez raced in to a lead.. But Valverde has battled back well and could do enough tomorrow, or even Sunday in the final stage like he did to Rodriguez in 2012..

A really strange stage today, the break went relatively early and a group of 24 quickly built a lead while the peloton took a day off for the first 150kms or so of the stage. Movistar had two men up there for the Team GC prize, Sky had one, Katusha had two. So none of those teams were going to chase, and neither were Giant-Alpecin, so that was that. 24 riders and none of mine, a shitty start to the day.. But it was a strange group that went up the road and it was a surprise winner in Gougeard - I'd say he must have been 200/1 or bigger. If anyone tells you they backed them, they're probably lying.. or it's Gougeard's dad. Oliveira and Monfort rewarded those that kept the faith with them and to wind me up after picking them several times before with no reward.

Behind, things were all getting a little silly - Valverde attacked repeatedly, for seemingly no particular reason, eventually getting off the front in a massive waste of energy, riding solo until they hit the cobbles with 2kms to go. I really can't understand what that was all about, all the points were taken by the breakaway, there was nothing to fight for. He'd have been better off saving his energy for tomorrow and a big attack on the descent off the final climb, or for the sprint where he could nab a lot of points if it comes to a GC sprint. Dumoulin showed again just how fantastic his legs are and suddenly, for the first time in ages, he had men with him at a finish - Craddock, and especially Degenkolb were fantastic in the closing stages, helping him pull away and put 3" more in to Aru. A total wipeout on our bets today which is very disappointing, hopefully we can recover tomorrow.  

The Route

They start in San Lorenzo de El Escorial and at least they get to spend the first 10kms warming up on flat roads, although I would think most will be warming up on rollers before they start this stage. Around 10kms in they start at the foot of the first climb of the day, the Puerto de Navacerrada. It's a Cat 1 climb, and although the official distance is given as 9.4kms, they will actually be climbing for more like 22kms from the base of the climb. 

The PDN averages 6.6%, but starts pretty easy and is almost flat for the last 500m, in between they hit sections of 9-11%, so a rude awakening at the start of a tough day. Once at the top they actually spend about 6.8kms riding along a plateau which then takes them through the summit marker for the Puerto de Cotos, which they climb on their way back in around 125kms time. They then descend for 15kms and pass through Rascafria, where the Intermediate sprint is located on their return leg.

Next up is the first passage of the Puerto de la Morcuera, coming from the north-east side. This is a Cat 1 climb that is 10.4kms long and averages 5.4%. It's a pretty steady climb, but for the most part is actually closer to 7% average, but the last 2.5kms are pretty easy, including a downhill section, thus pulling the average down to just 5.4%. That's followed by more or less 40kms of descending, with a little lump to get over at the south-eastern most point of the route before they start the return leg home. 

They first start the second climb of the Morcuera, this time from the south-eastern side, and although the Cat 1 section of the climb is 10.4kms, the climb is closer to 17kms if you include the climbing they are doing before the start. This is a slightly harder overall average gradient at 6.6%, but is a far steadier climb, with most parts around 7%, hitting a max around 9%. There's still almost 50kms to go once over the top of it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see someone from the GC group attack early on this climb to try to get away ahead of the final climb. 

Then it's down a fast and twisty 13km descent to Rascafria for what could prove to be a crucial intermediate sprint, if the GC men are fighting for it - 3pts from Valverde puts him in to the lead in the competition, if Rodriguez draws a blank, and Movistar are sure to try to get a few guys up with Valverde to take the other points, if they are at the front of the race. 

It's then on to the final climb of the day, and again, they are climbing for more than the official, categorised distance. They start climbing the road to the Puerto de Cotos with around 33kms to go, but the climb officially starts with 28.8kms to go. It's a Cat 1 climb of 11kms at an average speed of 5.3%, but the last 7kms of the climb are a pretty staeady 6.5% or so. At the top, they run along the plateau again for 6.8kms, go over the peak of the Navacerrada and start the descent to the finish. 

The descent is 11kms long and quite tricky. As they approach the last 5kms, they'll be descending at very high speed and there are a number of twisty, dangerous bends to negotiate. The road descends until the 1km to go mark and then with 800m to go it starts to climb again and with 200m to go it turns sharply right in to the final straight, which is only 200m long but is 10% gradient! It's a really tough finish to the stage and you will need to be positioned right coming in to that last right-hand bend if it comes down to a sprint finish. 

Contenders and Favourites

This is a ridiculously hard stage to predict. A long break has a big chance of making it, but you will need to be strong to survive today with four Cat 1 climbs. For this, I am looking at some usual candidates, guys who have shown themselves to be still strong and up for the fight. Alessandro De Marchi was 100/1 with Skybet while around 33/1-40/1 everywhere else, I had to take some of that. Rodolfo Torres must surely try to get up the road again tomorrow and put on a show, he came close to winning already and could finish 2nd in the KOM title to Fraile if he hoovers up lots of points on the Cat 1s, 40/1 with Ladbrokes is worth a small interest.. Others for the break? Fraile might go too, but he won't win, Roche could go, he seems to have really good legs at the moment. Frank Schleck was brilliant on stage 16, and a stage with long, easy climbs like this should suit him. Ruben Plaza has been active and looked strong, Oliveira worked hard today, I don't think he'll be able to go again tomorrow. And loads more to be honest, it's the last chance of a stage win for almost the entire peloton. 

The key to this stage though could be what the tactics of the GC teams are - Astana have to attack - they have to pile the pressure on Dumoulin and hope he cracks. But how will they manage it? Dumoulin looks the stronger of the two to me, especially on easier climbs like these, I just can't see Aru riding him off his wheel. He comfortably coverer Aru on Stage 18 and even rubbed it in with an attack later on and by putting him down in the post-race interviews, saying he knew he had him in his pocket after his first attack was so limp. And today again, Aru had problems, crashing earlier in the stage and then getting dropped by Dumoulin on the run in to the finish. Aru has possibly further problems ahead of him tomorrow morning, as it appears he got a hand-sling from LL Sanchez as he was being dropped, the jury looked at the video tonight but have decided to look at it again tomorrow morning. He could face a time penalty. 

One thing that they probably will try will be to send the likes of Landa or Cataldo up the road early on, awaiting Aru's attack if it comes. Landa owes Aru - if he had waited for him instead of riding on to the finish when he won stage 11, then Aru would probably be safe in the GC lead. So he could do that, and if the break gets a huge lead, he could have a chance of another stage win. They could also try attacking say on the 2nd or 3rd climb, even if they miss the break of the day, they will be riding their own battle - so Landa could attack at the bottom of the 2nd climb say and wait for Aru's attack near the top. If they can work together on the descent, Aru could have a 30" lead coming in to the final climb and could hold them off. But Aru looks weak to me and I don't think he is going to be capable of dropping Dumoulin or winning the stage.

Another scenario though of course is the GC teams really push hard all day for their own interests. Astana could look to push hard from the very first climb in an effort to wear him out. Movistar could push hard as Quintana and Valverde look up for a fight tomorrow. Valverde will be after the points in the intermediate sprint near the finish and the stage win, he can win the Points jersey if he can get a good results tomorrow. So the pace could be really high and the break could be reeled in before the finish. 

If that happens, there are again multiple ways that the stage could be won. A GC man like Quintana could go on the attack on the final climb, reel in the last of the break and solo away to victory. There could be attacks near the top in an attempt to get away on the descent, the likes of Valverde could try, but there's a long flat at the top of the climb before the descent starts, nearly 7kms, and that makes it hard to stay away with a bunch of guys chasing after you - it would be far easier to stay away if the road dropped straight away.

And if the GC men stay together to the finish, then it's a battle to the line. If that happens, Valverde is the obvious choice - there are few who are better at a finish like this than he is and he will be super motivated for the stage and the points jersey to rescue a disappointing race overall for Movistar. With a finish of 200m at 10%, Rodriguez is also a big danger, if he can steal a march on Valverde and get through that bend in front, he may not be caught. I don't think Aru can win on this climb, and as strong as Dumoulin is, I think it might be just a bit too hard for him too. Chaves or Moreno could also have big chances on this finish. 

Rafal Majka seems to be just below the level required to win the stage and the GC of course, he's over a minute off 3rd place. But Tinkoff-Saxo have started to look strong recently, Poljanski and Hansen could try to go up in the break to help a late attack from Majka. He is just over minute behind Rodriguez and it would be like something Tinkoff-Saxo to try to blow up the stage tomorrow in an attempt to get on the podium. If Rodriguez has a bad day and Dumoulin is just focused completely on Aru, he might let Majka go. Same could go for the likes of Pozzovivo, Chaves or Meintjes, there is nothing to lose really by being aggressive tomorrow and leaving it all out on the road.

It's going to be a treat, I hope... These stages can be either brilliant - and we get attacks all over the place with stage hunters going for it, GC men like Aru, Chaves and Quintana attacking from a long way out and Dumoulin working his ass off to hang on to his lead. Or, we could see a bit of a stalemate - Aru tries, but is too weak to get away and Dumoulin marks him and wins the race. Majka tries but gets pulled back by Katusha and Movistar and Valverde attacks relentlessly on the descent and the run to the finish but get caught. It could all come down to that last bend and the last 200m and then it is probably between Valverde and Rodriguez. 

In conclusion, Aru is too short, Quitana could do anything tomorrow, he could attack early on in an attempt to get on the podium, he's only a minute and a half off it and he's well capable of it on a good day. Dumoulin will probably just be happy to be Aru's shadow, but wouldn't be surprised to see him power away from them all in the final kilometre. Purito and Valverde are the likely winners from a GC men's sprint, with Valverde my favourite from the two of them. I have a few break hopefuls and will watch how it pans out in play, I'll be live tweeting. We could lay out of our Dumoulin bets now at 4/5, but I'm happy to keep it, I think he fights off Aru tomorrow and wins, if he doesn't we have Aru each-way at 8/1 from the start. 

Recommendations -

0.25pts each way on Rodolfo Torres at 40/1 with Ladbrokes 

0.3pts win on Alessandro de Marchi at 100/1 with Skybet

0.3pts each-way on Nicholas Roche at 66/1 with Various 

0.3pts each-way on Mikel Landa at 33/1 with Ladbrokes

0.2pts each-way on Ruben Plaza at 66/1 with Ladbrokes

Wait to back Valverde in play.. 

Matchbets

Schleck to beat Zubeldia - 2pts at 5/6 with Bet365

Dumoulin to beat Landa and Valverde to beat Moreno - 2pts on the double at 9/10 with Bet365