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Published on Tuesday, 01 September 2015 17:20

Vuelta Stage 11

Andorra la Vella to Cortals d´Encamp

Wednesday 2nd September, 138kms 

Here we go then, the test to see who really has the credentials to win the Vuelta a Espana. Tom Dumoulin has looked imperious so far, winning on mountains ahead of Chris Froome, Joaquim Rodriguez and Nairo Quintana, and chasing down every attack on Monday to set up Degenkolb for a go at the sprint. 

Some GC men seem to have been holding something back, others have been going all out early and could pay for those efforts in the coming weeks. It's a stage that could see a dramatic change in the GC picture come Wednesday night and if Tom Dumoulin is still up there near the top of the GC then it's really time to start taking his challenge seriously. But there are some really tough stages still to come, but if he can limit losses on those stages, he could pull himself back up on to the podium with the time trial on stage 17. 

Froome looked out of it, traded out to something like 12/1 on Betfair, but is now back to being the 5/2 second favourite. Was that a sign of things to come from Froome or just a flash in the pan on a climb where he was just able to pace himself while all the others were jumping all over the place, using up all their energy? Quintana and Rodriguez looked ok, but faded towards the top a little, but we know Quintana gets better as these races go on. Rafal Majka could still be a big danger, he will probably go close to winning a stage yet in this race. It will be interesting to see how Chaves reacts to getting dropped on Sunday, will he be able to bounce back or will he suffer badly on such a challenging stage? Whatever happens, this Vuelta is far from over and we should be in for a treat over the next two weeks. It has been a good race so far, it's only going to get better. 

I said earlier how that Dumoulin chased down everything at the end of stage 10 in order to set up Dumoulin for the sprint, and it looked like they had done a brilliant job as a group of only about 60 riders approached the finish and Degenkolb was practically the only 'recognised' sprinter in the group. But after doing loads of work to set him up out on the road, it fell apart for Giant-Alpecin in the last kilometre as suddenly Degenkolb found himself swamped and having to dig himself out of a deep hole with just 200m to go. Although he finished like a train, it was too late as a brilliant sprint by Sbaragli netted him and MTN's first win of the Vuelta to go along with their TDF stage win with Cummings. 

It was a very strange stage though, it took ages for a break to go, and when it did go it had 40 riders in it, including one from every single team, so you'd think they might be left stay away. But the presence of Henao in the break scuppered their chances, as he was pretty high up on GC. Maybe it was a clever tactic by Sky to do it, to make G-A chase more than maybe they had expected to, in an effort to tire them out ahead of the big stages to come. Henao had a disaster though later on, a crash saw him lose nearly 11 minutes and with it probably all chances of a good GC finish. Roche also hit the dirt and limped back to his bike but says he's ok. We had Ruben Plaza in the break, and later both Hansen and Visconti tried their hands at breaking away inside the last 3kms, but never got far as Dumoulin chased them down again..  

The Route

The stage is short - that's one of the first things that jumps out at you about this stage - at only 138kms, it's the shortest stage of the race, excluding the TT and the final stage to Madrid. It may be short, but it will be brutal - four Cat 1 climbs, a Cat 2 climb and an Especiale climb are crammed in to those 138kms. The stage is held entirely inside the independent principality of Andorra, and over a very small geographical footprint, but as they zig-zag up and down the climbs they rack up the 138kms, of which barely a metre is on flat roads.

They start in the centre of Andorrro more or less in Andorra la Vella and head north east before starting on the Collada de Beixalis after just 3.3kms, although they will have been climbing right from the start. The Collada is 6.5kms long at an average of 8.7%, a nasty start to the day, but a warning of what's to come. It starts off around 6% but after 2kms it kicks up to around 10% for the next kilometre or so, before it kicks up again to over 14%, before easing back to closer to 6% for the last 2kms. There should be guys all over the road with just 10kms gone once they go over the top and there should be a furious fight to try to get in the break of the day as there are loads of KOM points up for grabs today.

Once over the top they descend for 10kms before the road starts to climb again for 3kms, before they start on the next Cat 1, the Coll d'Ordino. This one is longer at 9,9kms, but slightly easier at 7%, topping out at nearly 2,000m. It's a far steadier climb though, mostly around 7-8%. 

The descent off the Ordino is the longest of the day at 26kms as they head back down south and past the start town of Andorra la Vella, and at the 58km point they start climbing again on the Coll de la Rabassa. The Rabassa is the longest climb of the day at 13.8kms, but the easiest average gradient at 6.6%. This one starts hard with sections up to 12%, but gets easier towards the top. 13kms of a very twisty and dangerous descent later takes them to the south-west corner of the stage and the climb of the Collada de la Gallina. This climb is 11.7kms long at 8.5% average, but it's quite an irregular climb that has a kilometre of flat at the 2km point on the climb, with other parts of the climb quite steep, hitting 11, 12, 13% in several places along the climb. Once over the top there are 100kms gone so there are going to be some very tired legs at this stage. 

A quick 7km descent takes them back north west to a short 4km drag at an easy gradient up to the foot of the small Cat 2 Alto de la Comella. It may be short at just 4kms, but it averages a very tough 9.5% as they by-pass the start town in the hills to the south of the town. The intermediate sprint comes with 127.8kms gone and with 129kms gone they start on the final challenge of the day, the summit finish to Alto Els Cortals d'Encamp. This final climb to the finish line rises 800m over 8.7kms, averaging 9.1%, and it starts hardwith sections of 9, 10, 11% but eases back to a steady gradient around 8% for the final 5kms of the stage. There are seven hairpin bends inside the last 5kms, the last one coming just 200m from the line. It's unlikely we will see a small group come to the line, more likely a single rider, but that left hander could be important if there is more than one rider coming to the line.  

One point to note, and it's an important one - the weather is forecast to be pretty awful tomorrow, with rain forecast for all day, and temperatures around 18°. It will make a difficult day even more difficult, it's going to be one of those epic stages. There is also a mild wind of around 10kmph will be on their backs all the way back from the Gallina, over the Comella and the final climb to the finish too, it will help lone breakaway riders just a little.

Contenders and Favourites

So a short but brutal stage welcomes them back from their rest day, with no fewer than six big climbs and one little, but steep one. Nearly 5,000m of climbing and nearly 4,000m of descending will test them on the way up and on the way down, and there's barely any flat roads in between for them to get their breath back. It's going to be action packed and pivotal to the outcome of this race. 

Nairo Quintana - will we finally see the little man show his hand? So far he has been probing and testing, but without much conviction or success. He attacked on the very first climb and it got me just a little excited as I thought he might be sending out a crushing message to his rivals on the first road stage of the race, but in the end he was dropped by Roche and Dumoulin.. mixed signals there then. He has not been dropped really by a lot on any of the climbs, but on Sunday when Froome and Dumoulin started duking it out he was unable to go with Froome's surge inside the last kilometre and lost 18" to him. 

Of course these are not Nairo's kind of climbs nor Nairo's kind of stages, a fast flat day with a wall at the finish is not his thing. He is far more at home in a day like Tuesdays' stage around Andorra. The stage should be blown apart early and we are sure to see a strong break of stage hopefuls and KOM chasers go up the road on the first climb, but I think that Movistar will look to make this a really hard stage for the peloton and will try to keep a tight reign on the break as there could well be a stage win for Nairo at the end of today. I think they'll get help from Sky and Tinkoff-Saxo too as they will have their eyes on the stage too, so I think the break has only a slim chance of making it.

I think they will ride a strong tempo for the first two climbs, but once they get to the Rabassa near half way I think they will really put the hammer down and try to thin down the peloton to less than 40 riders or so. There is a possibility that Nairo could go long on the Gallina, he likes to go long on stages sometimes, it all depends on what he's got left in the tank, he's been complaining today about how he's not at his sharpest as he is still tired from having to go so hard at the Tour. There's 40kms still to go from the top though and with a tricky descent and the not too inconsiderable obstacle of the very steep Cat 2 Alto de la Comella to overcome before the final climb of the day, he might wait. We saw in the TDF how he waited too long on La Toussuire and went a little earlier on Alpe d'Huez, he'll have to time it right tomorrow too..

I think he'll wait for the final climb, but go early on it - the steep slopes around 10-11% in the first four kilometres are perfect for a Nairo attack, if he can be delivered to the bottom at the front by Valverde and whoever is left for Movistar then he could just accelerate away. The climb is quite similar to Alpe d'Huez with gradients around 10% at the bottom, easing to an average closer to 8%. If he can do what he did on the Alpe, he could put 1-2 minutes in to a lot of these by the top. He looks the most likely winner on paper but he hasn't displayed a great deal so far to be calling for a big bet on him at just 5/2, it might be worth waiting until in-play to see if you can get bigger prices on him if the break is strong.

Fabio Aru is second favourite at 5/1, twice the price of Nairo, he is a puzzling one too on a stage like this. He too has looked good and not so good, attacking away at the finish of stage 7 to La Alpujarra, and although he failed to stay with Dumoulin and Froome on Stage 9 he still finished 4th, ahead of Majka and Quintana. Like Quintana, he will have been waiting for this stage and Astana have said they plan to be aggressive. He could well go on the attack on the last climb also. Astana have a few cards to play, but not as many as they had a week ago with Nibali and Tiralongo gone home. Landa and LL Sanchez could try something a little earlier, but neither look like they would be able to ride away from Movistar, Sky and Tinkoff for very long, and I don't think they'd be too worried about them, at first anyway. If they start to build up a big lead and no one is willing to take up the chase then they could just nick the stage.

As it is though, I think they will be relying on Aru to attack on the final climb, so it is up to Movistar and T-S to put him under pressure I think earlier in the stage - he could well find himself on his own with 40kms to go. If he can hang in there until the final climb and neither Nairo or Froome make a move, then he is likely to. I am not sure he's a great bet though at 9/2.. 

Chris Froome is more or less the same price, but is as large as 6/1 in places - Sky had their ambitions dented with the crashes for Roche and Henao, they could both be sore tomorrow and in survival mode on such a brutally hard and wet stage. We saw Froome struggle at the end of the Tour when Valverde and Nairo attacked him repeatedly, we'll probably see the same tomorrow. Thomas doesn't seem to have his Tour climbing legs here yet, Nieve has been sort of in the background but not doing too badly and Knees, Boswell and Kiryienka will be burnt out long before the final climb here. Froome could well find himself isolated and struggling again on the final climb. The wet conditions aren't going to be to his liking either and I have a funny feeling Froome could have a bad day tomorrow (that means he's going to win eh.....)

Rafal Majka could be a big danger on this stage, but like Froome I think he could be on his own a long way from home. T-S haven't really got a squad built to cope with these sorts of stages. He didn't have the best of TDFs, but he has started well in the Vuelta and has two 5th and two 8th places to his name on some of the hillier stages and sits in 9th place, 30" behind Froome and Quintana. I think that his best chance is a long range attack, possibly off the Gallina, and hope that there is a bit of a stand-off between Sky and Movistar for a while which might give him a big enough gap going on to the final climb. It will be really hard for him though to hold off these guys so I'm not sure that will work. If Quintana or Froome attacks on the final climb I think he will find it very hard to stay with them. No bet at 14/1.

Purito Rodriguez apparently helped design this stage, as he is a resident of Andorra and they organisers asked him for his local knowledge and input. He says he has been training on the roads and he has also said that the three times he has ridden the stage he has been completely 'cascao' or cracked. It's very hard. He also said that he reckons the winner will only come from a select group of Froome, Quintana, Aru, Landa, Valverde and himself. "There will be no surprises" is what he says.

He sits in 2nd place overall and has gone a little under the radar because of all the attention being lavished upon Chaves and Dumoulin and he's probably delighted with that, less pressure on him. He has ridden pretty well so far and looked the winner with about 200m to go on Sunday, but tied up badly and was passed by Froome and Dumoulin. That is one thing I worry about - as I keep saying, I don't think Purito has his legs of old and he has a tough Tour in them now as well. If Movistar really make the day hard and then Nairo or Froome kicks in the last climb he could struggle. But on the other hand, he knows these climbs better than anyone and has trained numberous times on the route, so he could have a big day tomorrow. He could well be the one to snag 2nd or 3rd on the stage just based on local knowledge and being spurred on by the possibility of taking over the race lead if he can pull off a big ride. 

As much as I'd like to see it, I don't think Dumoulin will pull off a miracle tomorrow and finish within a couple of minutes of the leaders. He has been brilliant, but this is different league now. If he does stay with them though I will be jumping straight on to the bookies and having a few quid each-way on him for next year's Tour at 66/1 (he as 250/1 a week ago and 500/1 in July!)

Esteban Chaves has been a brilliant story, but he started to pay for his efforts to date on Sunday's stage 9, he couldn't stay with the attacks that were coming thick and fast inside the last 2kms. He lost 59" on the stage, and with it the red jersey, but he's still not out of it, sitting just 59" down in 3rd place. As I say though, this is different league altogether and I can't imagine many OGE boys will be with him coming towards the final climb. I think he can ride a respectable stage tomorrow but will not be challenging for the win - a top 6 place is achievable and should be something he now works towards. 

Valverde is as big as 25/1 and I guess that's because 1) he will be working for Quintana, doing the old 1-2 in the last few climbs, Movistar should have Valverde and possibly one or two others to help Quintana when most other GC men will be on their own. 2) he hasn't looked great on the climbs and was dropped Sunday quite early in the climb after putting in an early attack. And 3) he crashed a few days ago too. Quintana said today that they were both tired after the TDF, so I can't see him winning unless Quintana has a bad day. 

Domenico Pozzovivo will probably find other stages more to his liking, I think he will be just hanging on tomorrow in an attempt to just move up the GC and then maybe strike for a stage win on a stage more suited to him later in the race. Pierre Rolland may try the break, but he has looked tired and uninterested to me, he has his contract for next year sorted. His team-mates Romain Sicard and Cyril Gautier probably have a better chance at bigger odds. 

And of course, we will get our break of the day - there are loads of KOM points up for grabs but the GC men won't be going in the break to go get them, so a strong break should take most of them. I tipped up Rodolfo Torres for the KOM at the start of the race at 33/1, he is now around the 14/1 mark despite we not really seeing anything from him. There was a good reason for that though, he has been suffering from a fever. He is feeling a lot better though and that was evidenced by he getting in the big break of 40 on Monday but that break came to nothing. He has said that he will be going for the KOM this week so I think he is a very likely break candidate for tomorrow. He could be a 'back to lay' bet, or a cashout bet if he does get in the break and they get a good lead. 

Others for the break? Kenny Ellisonde has been active and has looked strong, he could well try to get away tomorrow again. Caja Rural are sure to have someone in the break, possibly Txurruka, but he's never good enough to hold on for the win. It will more than likely be Fraile though as he bids to keep his KOM jersey. I don't know if he's good enough for a day like this though.. Ruben Plaza could try again, as could someone like Jo Dombrowski for Cannondale-Garmin, he is big at 100/1. He is fired up for a big ride at some point in this race, tomorrow could be a day to try he took a great stage win on the big stage in the Tour of Utah recently, gaining him enough time to win the overall.

Jurgen Van den Broeck is 125/1 and he could well fancy a day like this, he doesn't mind the rain and the epic stages, he rode himself on to the podium on a day like this in the Dauphiné last year. His team-mate Bart de Clercq could also try, he's also 125/1. Finally, you could have the likes of Gio Visconti go up the road in the break to help Nairo later on, if they stay away he could take the stage. He's as short as 50/1 but as big as 200/1 on Betfair. Darwin Atapuma could also try to get up the road on this savage day of climbing.

So, it's an incredibly difficult stage they will face tomorrow and a very hard task to try to pick the winner too. I'm going to plump for Quintana though as I think the stage will suit him perfectly and he should have the best team support to tee him up for a big attack on the lower slopes of the final climb. Rodriguez and Pozzovivo could go well but I can't trust them to back them, instead I am going to scatter around a few small long-shot bets.  

Recommendations -

2pts win on  Nairo Quintana at 11/4 with 888Sport or 5/2 with others. (actually if you can Betfair, take the 7/2 there)

0.2pts each-way on Rodolfo Torres at 33/1 with various

0.3pts win on Gio Visconti at 200/1 on Betfair

0.2pts win on Jo Dombrowski at 100/1

0.2pts win on Jurgen Van den Broeck at 125/1 with Ladbrokes

0.2pts win on Bart de Clercq at 125/1 with various

Matchbets

De Clerq to beat Brambilla and Pozzovivo to beat Meintjes - 2pts on the double at 6/5 with Bet365

Dombrowski to beat Duarte - 1.2pts at 5/4

Torres to beat Schleck - 3.3pts at 8/11

Van den Broeck to beat Plaza - 1.5pts at evens