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Published on Wednesday, 19 August 2015 23:23

Vuelta a Espana 2015 Stage 1

Puerto Banús to Marbella

Saturday August 22nd, 7.4km

The Vuelta kicks off amongst the yachts and the supercars of the super-rich in the Costa del Sol with a short team time trial from Puerto Banús to Marbella. It may be short but it will need to be ridden at full gas so GC men don't lose valuable seconds on the very first day. 

It's a similar start to last year's Vuelta then with a TTT, but a lot shorter than last year's trip which was over 12.6kms. Last year it was Movistar who came out on top with a blistering time of 14'13", averaging over 53kmph. They beat Cannondale by just 6", who finished on the same time as Orica Greenedge. Nairo Quintana will be hoping for a repeat performance of last year's stage then, when he put 19" in to Froome and 27" in to Froome, not that it mattered in the end as he abandoned on stage 11 after crashing in the stage 10 time trial.

The Route

It's a totally flat course, there are not many profiles you will see that are as flat as the profile below, it's almost like it's a mistake the line is so flat. This makes it a course favoured by the teams with big diesel engines and it's interesting to see the teams that have brought some of their big engines in order to get a good start in the opening week. 

They start on the pier/breakwater that protects all the millionaires yachts on the Calle Ribera (right) and ride along the length of it before cutting on to the Paseo Alberto Vidiella Tudores and then just continue along the beachfront until they reach the finish in Marbella. I say along the beachfront, but in fact they actually go over part of the beach over a specially laid down road over the sand as you can see in the video on this link.

Just today (Thursday) some of the riders have been getting pretty excited about the state of the course, tweeting pictures of sand that they are riding across in their recon rides, Froome, Roche and Sutherland all posted pics slamming the organisers for the ridiculous course. I'm sure that it will be fine come Saturday afternoon though, if not, it should add to the excitement and drama!

Not much else to say about the route though, it's dead flat, it's mostly straight and it should be pretty straightforward, if it were not for the possible drama with the sand and the boardwalk!

Favourites and Contenders

Rather bizarrely, Paddy Power opened their betting on this TTT with Trek Factory Racing as the 4/9 favourites.. 4/9? absolutely insane. Even late last evening they were only 10/11 after correcting their market a little, but that too, to me, was a ridiculous price. Since then, the Kambi platforms of 888 etc have come out with 5/4 and even that looks short to me. 

Yes, ok, Trek have Fabian Cancellara, the master of these kinds of stages, but the man is coming back from a broken back?! How hard can he really go on his first race since his horrible crash in stage 4 of the Tour? And it's not exactly as if the rest of the team will be fighting for the win in the Individual TT that comes later in the race, hey are all pretty strong guys, but they're no Cancellaras. Zoidl, Popyvych and Stuyven are all strong guys, but nothing special when it comes to time trials. I may be proved completely wrong here and Cancellara might just pull them all behind him on his own to victory, but I can't have them at that price. Bet365 finally came out with prices tonight around 7.30pm and they went 2/1, better, but still not enough to get me interested. 

Movistar are the reigning champions of this event, beating Cannondale and OGE by 6" last year. Valverde, Quintana, Erviti and Moreno are here again from that team and are joined by Amador, Sutherland, Rojas and Visconti, strong guys who can move over a short TT like this. They are a well-oiled TTT machine and could well pull off a decent ride here. They will be very keen to keep Nairo as close as possible, if not ahead of some of his key rivals like in last year's opening TT. 

They are missing some of their best TTers though with Malori and Dowsett absent from the start list, so they might have to settle for a top 5 and not a podium spot, even it the 16/1 is tempting. 

Giant-Alpecin are a little like TFR in that they have their TT superstar in their lineup - Tom Dumoulin. Dumoulin is just getting better and better as a rider and could beat most of these teams on his own. He is backed up by what to me looks a stronger squad for this stage than Trek's, with strong lead-out types and fast sprinters here to support him. Koen de Kort, Luca Mezgec, John Degenkolb, Lawson Craddock and Tom Stamsnijder are all seriously strong and fast riders and they should do very well in this stage. 

On the downside for them, like with TFR, Dumoulin is coming back from an injury sustained in a crash in stage 3 of the Tour, the day before Cancellara's crash. He hasn't raced since so it's hard to know for sure how well he's going to go too. They are 11/2 with PP, 5/1 with Bet365, I think they are capable of a top 3 and are a better bet, to me, at 11/2 than Trek at 2/1.

Team Sky have been hit and miss in TTs this year, but they came agonisingly close to winning the TTT in the Tour, losing out by less than a second to BMC. They had been smashing it up all the way along, but as the team started to run out of gas in the latter stages, Nico Roche struggled the most and was only just able to hang on. They will be desperate to make amends and to get the win after that disappointment and they have a pretty decent lineup here to try to achieve that. 

Froome, of course, is one of the best time triallists, but the squad includes the likes of  Kiryienka, who landed a great win for us in the Giro TT at 22/1, and is a very strong rider. They also have Knees, Boswell and Thomas, but they also have passengers in Nieve, Henao, Puccio and possibly even Roche again, although I think he'll fare a lot better this time. They were doing plenty of moaning about the course today though, they were getting worried about the sand on the course!

BMC are the world TT champions, but that hasn't stopped some bookies pricing them up as outside the favourites, they are a big looking 14/1 with PP, twice the price that they are with 365. Ok, they are missing some of their best TT'ers in Dennis, Quinziato and Phinney, but they still have Van Garderen, Burghardt, Velits, Rosskopf and Drucker amongst a pretty decent looking lineup. Van Garderen tasted victory in the TDF TT, by the slimmest of margins, and I'm pretty sure he will want to get off to a great start like then, gaining time on some key rivals. They look slightly overpriced to me at 14s.

Astana have come here with one of the strongest squads to have graced a Grand Tour in quite a while, with three GC hopefuls in Aru, Nibs and Landa. Add to that Tiralongo, Sanchez and the rest and they are a powerful looking squad who should do well in the team classification. But in a flat TTT on the opening day? I'm not so sure. I think they will come in to their own as the road rises upwards in the next two weeks, but as long as they don't lose buckets of time to their main GC rivals, I think they'll be happy enough with a top 6 placing. Aru isn't the best against the clock, neither are Nibali or Landa, so I just can't see them breaking on to the podium, even at the big looking 22/1 with Bet365.

Cannondale caused a bit of a shock last year, almost winning this stage, but that was a completely different squad to who is starting this year - not one rider remains from that squad. Sagan, Bodnar, De Marchi, Bennett - they've all moved on this year. The replacements are just not in the same league though and I think they will struggle to finish in the top 6, let alone the podium. The  200/1 with 365 is about right, the 80/1 with PP is too short!

Orica Greenedge are always a danger in TTTs, but I think this squad is one of the weaker TTT squads I've seen from them at the start of a GT. Ok, the sqaud they had at the Tour TTT was poor, but that was a squad decimated by injuries after the crashes that had gone before! There are none of their big name time triallists, but they do have Docker, Hayman and Meyer, three strong guys against the clock. The rest of the squad are made up of guys more suited to the lumpy stages to come, with Chaves, Impey, Ewan, Gerrans and Keukeleire not exactly suited to riding 7kms flat out on a TT bike. They opened at something insane like 150/1 with PP, but have since tumbled all the way down to as low as 7/1. Now that's just way too short, a few half-decent triallists in the squad, but not good enough to trouble the podium I think, and that 10/1 doesn't intereet me at all. 

Tinkoff-Saxo look too lightweight to me, as do Lotto JumboNL, although at 200/1 with some they look overpriced, they are only 40/1 with 365. I really can't see any of the others troubling the podium though. 

This is a hard stage to call for sure, and added to the lottery that the stage already is, is the fact that they could be racing some of the stage over sand and wooden boards. Add to that the fact that the bookies are offering their usual crap offering for TTs and it makes it even harder. PP are win only, Bet365 and Ladbrokes are paying out on the first two home only and the rest haven't even bothered pricing it up yet.

Trek are too short, but keep drifting out in price, Giant-Alpecin and Sky look like they are the most likely to be challenging for the win but trying to pick value with a bookie that is paying out ew is difficult. Movistar could go close, but I'd like to have 3 places as well with them. I'll wait a little I think to see if any of the other bookies offer 3 places before making my final choice, but you have an idea of which way I'm leaning anyway by now. I have a few picks for matchbets I am happy to put up now though. 

The eagle-eyed of you who came early to the preview might notice it's slightly different now, I deleted the entire betting analysis section by accident and had to start all over with it tonight.. I think I got it more or less the same!

Edit - 21/08: There has been a major shift in the dynamics of this stage with the news today that the stage is going to be neutralised from a time point of view. This is a ludicrous situation that the organisers have got themselves in to that the UCI has had to intervene and tell these morons that it was a bad idea to have a team time trial over sand, rubber mats and temporary wooden pathway.

It is beyond belief that they got to this point on the Thursday before the race started without anyone thinking that this was a bad idea and maybe they should test it out first, or at least have a back-up plan. Instead, we are in a situation where the GC riders are just going to potter around for fear of anything happening, other teams who normally wouldn't have come in to the running can go full gas and take risks in the hope of winning the stage and it has had a material affect on the betting on the event. I'm glad now that I didn't make my final picks and didn't advise any bets on the likes of Sky, who have gone from 5/1 to 16/1 on the news, obviously Froome isn't going to take any risks.

On the flip side, the likes of Caja Rural, who have nothing to lose by going hard, have come in from 500/1 to 50/1 in places, but there's still some 100/1 with WillHill who are paying 3 places. That still doesn't interest me though. Orica Greenedge have also been smashed in to and those who got the massive prices during the week on them are sitting pretty now as they are as low as 4/1.

Giant Alpecin are rock solid though and in fact have come in half a point to 9/2, I think they now have a great chance of winning this. I think they will go full gas, they have no GC men to worry about and it could see them take the first stage and the first red jersey, as they are still awarding a stage winner and a leader's jersey, despite it being neutralised. They are my main pick, but it's up to you as to where and how you back them - they are 4/1 with Hill's who are paying 1/4 the odds for the first 3, or they are 9/2 with others who are paying 1/3 the odds for the first 2. Personally, I prefer the 4/1 with 3 places, I think it is a good bet to at least get your money back at worst, and it could well prove to be a winning 4/1 bet to start with. 

Of the others at bigger prices, it's hard to pick one now, a lot of the huge value is long gone - Lotto JumboNL have dived from 150/1 t0 18/1 with PP, I just can't bring myself to back any of these teams who hadn't a chance a day ago at prices like these. It really is a lottery and I think we'll save our bullets for another day. I am reasonably happy to stick with the matchbets, but the Sky to beat Movistar one might be a bit shaky now, they are now 5/4 from 8/11..  

One thing that struck me though with the abandonment of the timings tomorrow is that some guys who are going for the GC who are on poor TTT teams will be delighted to not have an immediate time loss to have to overcome. I was a bit worried for Pozzovivo, but I think this is great news for him and I thought he would have shortened up tonight, but he was still available at 25/1. I have recommended him in my overall preview as an each-way bet, I have added another half a point tonight to make it 1pt each-way on him in total now. 

Recommendations:

I recommend not staking too much on this lottery, but I am having a point each-way at 4/1 on Giant-Alpecin - they were the team I was most interested in before today's developments and I think the news has actually boosted their chances of winning. 

Matchbets

Cannondale Garmin to beat AG2R, BMC to beat Astana, MTN to beat FDJ and Katusha to beat Europcar - 1.5pts on the acca at 3.4/1 with Bet365. Add in Caja Rural to beat Colombia to make it a 5.1/1 acca - 1pt on that. 

Sky to beat Movistar - 2pts at 8/11