Stage 2 

Stage 2 - Mataro to Olot

Tuesday March 22nd, 178.7km

The early breaks went, De Gendt was in one, but exactly like last year they didn't want to let him go so he was reeled in again. Then another break went with Luis Mas Bonet, one I nodded to at 200/1 and that break stuck, building a lead of around 6 minutes at one point. They didn't make it though and in the run in in to Callela with 5kms to go Nico Roche took a flyer off the front with a seriously impressive attack, only to be reeled in with less than 2kms to go. In a messy sprint, Bouhanni easily took the win to rub it in to us following his incident with the race at his mercy on Saturday. 

Backers of Simon Gerrans were left seething with OGE as they switched him to lead-out man for Impey, but Impey was unable to finish off the work done by Gerro as Swift and Bouhanni swept past him. I did sound a note of caution last night re. the fact that Impey was so short with Bet365, looks like they took a bet from someone in the know on him last night. And just tonight OGE have said in their race report that they decided to let Impey sprint today to pay him back for all the work he does for the team at other times, leading out Matthews, leading out Gerro etc. With Impey in 3rd, the matchbet double landed at least, with Barbero coming close to a podium spot in 6th, he just doesn't have the speed to beat the likes of Bouhanni and Swift.

Meersman surprisingly lost 6'43" today, finishing way down the field, so that matchbet with Gerro won as well, almost putting us flat on the day. I say surprisingly lost that much time, but apparently he spent all of yesterday in an airport waiting for a delayed flight.. If I'd known that I'd have gone a lot bigger..! 

Meersman wasn't the only one who lost a lot of time today, Miguel-Angel Lopez, Tom Dumoulin, Ryder Hesjedal, Jonas Van Genechten and Rohan Dennis all lost lots of time, they must have got caught on the wrong side of splits on one of the last two climbs. Also, I did highlight this last night that some riders have had a nightmare getting to Girona, with delays to planes and trains and TVDS and TomDum tweeted to that effect today saying how long it took them to get there. We all know how exhausting it can be to be delayed on public transport, must be even worse for these guys not being able to rest and breathing in all sorts of germs and nasties from the great unwashed..  

None of the GC favourites suffered any delays today though, but it was interesting to see Dan Martin sprint to 17th place, while Fabio Aru was way down in 79th place, just two places behind Pozzovivo.. a small split could have been costly as they were so strung out. 

Stage 2 then - a stage that starts and finishes in the same towns as stage two last year. It looks flat enough on the profile but has plenty of hills along the way. They hit an uncategorised lump after just 5kms, and 10kms later start on the Cat 3 Alt de Can Bordoi (2.4kms at 6%) which they also climbed early in the stage last year. Then it's 70kms of flat roads as they approach Girona. They turn right and go up and over the Alt de Els Angels to the east of Girona, a Cat 1 climb that averages 3.8% over 10kms, but that's deceptive as there is a downhill section in the middle, otherwise the gradient would be closer to 7-8% average.

They didn't climb this climb on this stage last year though, but instead they climbed it twice on stage 3 the next day. On the climb that day, the second time up, a very select group had detached themselves off the front that included Contador, Porte, Aru, Martin, Uran and Pozzovivo, while behind Valverde, Froome and the race leader Pierre Rolland were left floundering down the road.

A quick descent and with less than 60kms to go the road starts to rise again, rising all the way to the finish line. but it's quite a gentle rise, it looks steeper on the profile below than in real life. When they approach the town though the road kicks up at 3.9% for 3kms, then there's a short descent for a kilometre, before a drag up to the finish, with a final kick up to the line for the last 500m. There is a loop they do with just over a kilometre to go, where they almost do a full 360 to take them on to the final straight kilometre up the hill to the line.

You can see the last 15kms of the rainy stage from last year in the video below, including seeing the strange finish where Valverde won the stage but it almost looked like JJ Rojas actually thought he had won it as he put his hands in the air.. maybe he was told he was going for the stage that day but Valverde decided he was going to take it at the end of the stage..     

 

With the Alt de Els Angels coming so far from the finish (70kms) it may not have such a big outcome on the result of this stage. The uphill run to the line for the last 50kms or so will be tough though, we could see some sprinters shed along the way. The question again is, will Bouhanni and Swift make it? Both are well able to sprint after a tough day of climbing as we know, they showed that today they are both in exceptional form, not that we needed reminding of that when they were in the top four at MSR.

We also need to look to the punchier guys on a stage like this, the guys like Valverde and Rojas who were 1st and 2nd last year.. In fact, there were no sprinters anywhere to be seen in the result last year, Caleb Ewan was dead last on the stage, 18 minutes down, Peulcchi lost 6 mins, Coquard and Van der Sande 3 minutes and so on. It's a tough run in that if a team like Sky, Astana or BMC ride at full gas we will see the peloton strung out from a long way out and guys dropping off the back all the way to the finish.

In Valverde's absence, Simon Gerrans looks a perfect pick for this, he can climb, he will be able to hang in there at the front when the pace is really up, and OGE have some superb finishers in Impey, Howson and Meier to lead him in to a winning position in the last 500m. OGE like to mix things up and share opportunities amongst their key men, and I think the plan here was that Gerro supported Impey on today's stage and then Impey will pay him back tomorrow on the uphill finish, leading him out. They both opened at 9/1 with PP just before 5pm and I took the 9/1 on Gerro. They have since cut him to 6/1 with Impey out at 12/1. 

BMC have a few cards to play in the run-in, Ben Hermans could take a flyer off the front in an effort to surprise the peloton, especially if they are concerned with watching the likes of Gilbert and Gerrans. It would also force the others to chase earlier than necessary and maybe burn out their leadout trains a little. If that happens, Philippe Gilbert could be waiting in the wings to pounce in the sprint. Gilbert is coming back from an illness that laid him up for a while, but says he is feeling much better and looks to be back on track. He could be a big danger in a reduced sprint with an uphill finish like this.

If Ben Swift and Nacer Bouhanni can get to the finish with the leaders then it may come down to a duel between the two of them, with Swift probably having the best chance of a good leadout, with Thomas, Kiryienka, Poels, Roche and Boswell here to drag him up the hill. Bouhanni had a good leadout today from Soupe, Soupe showing Bouhanni he can be every bit as valuable to him as his new-found-love Laporte. Bouhanni is 11/4 for tomorrow, if it was a flat sprint he'd have been 4/11 I think.. The question is can he get up that tough finishing hill and sprint at the end of it? That's why you're getting 11/4 and not 4/11. He has come in for sustained support this evening though and is in to 2/1 (7/4 with Bet365) and that's too short for me, if like today he is near the front with 5kms to go you will probably be able to back him around evens, might be worth waiting for that instead in case a break makes it or he gets dropped.

I think though that the sprinters will have their work cut out and others that could have a chance on a finish like this would include Julian Alaphilippe, Jarlinson Pantano (sprinted to 12th today), Enrico Gasparotto (finished a very impressive 4th) and Georg Preidler of Giant-Alpecin who finished 10th today. 

Kiel Reijnen of Trek-Segafredo is another rider I had on my radar for this stage - a resident of Girona (along with Stetina and Hesjedal), Reijnen is a good sprinter after a hard day's climbing, as is evident from his Palmares, taking some great top 6 placings on tough stages of the Tour of Utah and the USA Pro Challenge. Trek will be looking for a stage win for their local boys and you can be sure they will have reconned this stage numerous times in the past few months. I was hoping he wouldn't do too well today so he wouldn't kill his price for tomorrow and it was perfect really - 11th so just off the radar a little, but good enough to show he's sprinting ok. I was hoping for 40/1 or better, PP opened at 66/1 and took that, they've slashed him to just 25/1 now. You might be able to get bigger with someone else later. (He's 66/1 with Bet365 now)

Cannondale have a number of men who could go well here with Alex Howes, Michael Woods or even Rigo Uran who doesn't have a bad kick on him after a tough day, as we saw last year when winning the bunch sprints behind the winners in stages 2 and 5 and taking 7th in the sprint on the final day.

Martin Elmiger for IAM could like this finish too, as could Daniel Navarro from a late attack off the front of the peloton. I'm going to give Carlos Barbero another go though, he did well today in finishing 6th, there's a possibility that he will have less competition on a tough finish like this tomorrow and his confidence should be up after coming so close today. Caja Rural will have a number of men to help him at the finish of a stage like this, and at 33/1 with PP when they opened he was worth another shot. Bouhanni may well win, look to back him in play with 5-10kms to go if it's looking likely, but I'm just a little bit concerned that after MSR, the travelling and a tough stage yesterday he might be getting a little fatigued.. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Simon Gerrans at 9/1 with PP (see if you can get bigger than 6/1 with others, otherwise take 6/1 now)

0.5pts each-way on Kiel Reijnen at 66/1 with PP (try to get bigger than 25/1 elsewhere now)

0.3pts each-way on Carlos Barbero at 33/1 with Bet465

 

Matchbets

Gilbert to beat Vakoc - 2pts at 4/6 with bet365

Reijnen to beat Van Der Lijke and Pantano to beat Preidler - 2pts at 5/4

 

 

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Stage 3 

Stage 3 -  Girona to La Molina

Wednesday March 23rd, 172.1kms

What a strange stage we had today in Catalunya though, an absolute snoozefest for all but the last 5kms, and even then the peloton barely came to life. No teams looking to make it hard on the run-in to town for Cofidis and Bouhanni, and no late attacks whatsoever. Nothing. They just rolled along the highway and towed Bouhanni to an easy win. Bouhanni had even gone back to the medical car in the first hour of racing complaining of stomach problems, but it didn't stop him blasting his way to victory after another quality leadout from Cofidis.

Maybe teams are too worried about the next two days racing to have gone full gas today, Tinkoff, Sky, BMC, Astana all seemed happy to just roll along and Cofidis were only too happy to let them take it easy. 

It was pretty pathetic from Sky and OGE, they both came towards the front in the last 4kms and then disappeared. Sky's train was such a mess that Froome and Thomas actually finished in front of Swift, and Gerrans finished down in 31st with Impey in 13th. Barbero and Reijnen were unlucky, the two of them came pretty close, finishing in 5th and 6th respectively. Meersman seems to have recovered from his jour-sans yesterday, he took 2nd, just ahead of Gilbert who seemed to impede Tsatsevich in the closing metres.

Pantano lost the match-bet double for us by just 5 places, probably a bike length, but as he was down in 63rd place I can only think he got impeded by Arredondo's crash in the last  5kms. He might have lost position and slipped back through the field. Gilbert's mb won at least softening the loss a small bit. 

 

Stage 3 is a seriously difficult stage and will be the first day where we will get to see who is hot and who is not. You may not win the race on this stage, but you could certainly lose it. The stage is uphill from the start and they are climbing right to the end of the stage..  Last year they left from Tona to the south-west on the way to La Molina, this year they leave from Girona and take on some roads that are very familiar to all the riders who live in the area around Girona.

A gently-rising, rolling start for 50kms and they arrive at the foot of the Alt de Coubet with 52kms gone. The climb is 10kms long at an average of 5.5%, hitting a max of 10%, so if you're on a bad day, you could be in trouble pretty early on in this stage. After 110kms they start the Alt de Tose, another Cat 1 climb that averages 7% for 6.3kms. A fast, tricky descent for 20kms and it's straight on to another Cat 1 climb, the first of two times they take on the Cat 1 Alt de La Mollina, the second time is the finish of the stage. They climb for 10kms at an average of 4.5%, but the climb does actually peak out a few kilometres before the KOM point as you can see below, making the actual climbing itself average 6.5% for 8kms. It does kick up a little again in the last 500m, which isn't too important the first time up but will be important on the second ascent as they are sprinting to the line.

On this climb last year on stage 4, Tejay Van Garderen took a superb win, attacking away from the Contador/Porte group, bridging to Kiryienka and then dropping him. Behind, Contador, Porte and Atapuma came in chase, but couldn't catch him, although Richie Porte accelerated impressively away from Contador to come after and almost catch Van Garderen. In 2014 it came down to a reduced group hitting the last kilometre, Froome attacked, Rodriguez went after him and then sprinted away from him for the win.   

We should see the usual suspects up here again, but as it's such a serious test of endurance over the last 100kms, with three Cat 1 climbs straight after each other, anyone who isn't 100% will be found out. Alberto Contador looks in good form, has been dancing on the pedals already this year, winning stages in the Algarve and blowing things apart on the Col d'Eze. He doesn't look to have his max power though to me, Porte rode up to him pretty easily in PN I thought - after his initial burst he was a little one-paced, allowing Thomas to limit his losses. He will also miss Rafal Majka big time here, Majka was a big asset to him in P-N.

Chris Froome? Who knows how he'll go, but it's unlikely he will be disappointing here, he won't be lacking in training and fitness. His poor performances last year can be attributed to the fact he was coming here on the back of an illness, if he comes in better shape he could well blast all of these guys out of the water. Sky have a strong team to put the whole peloton under pressure over the previous two Cat 1 climbs and we might have just 20 riders or less when it comes to the business end of the stage on La Molina. Froome could attack on the steeper parts that hit 8-9% with 3-4kms to go and then time-trial to the finish like Van Garderen did last year. He has been saying that he's only here to get some good racing in and to see how he gets on, but that's hardly the real situation now is it.

BMC have an interesting dilemma here, who is it that has the best chance for them on the stage and overall? It's the first time that Tejay Van Garderen and Richie Porte have raced in the same race going for the GC, so it will be interesting to see who gets the nod to be support/leader or if they both are going to be going for it as joint leaders. They also have Darwin Atapuma, Brent Bookwalter and Samu Sanchez here, it's a seriously strong squad they have. They also could be looking to shred the peloton and test Froome's fitness over the previous two climbs.

They could try the 1-2 with Van Garderen going first like he did last year, and Porte pouncing late if TVG is reeled in in the last 2kms. In fact, it could be that we see Porte going for this one, as it's a punchier sort of finish, and maybe then Van Garderen gives it a go on the longer Port Aine tomorrow.  

And then there's Nairo Quintana - climber extraordinaire that could tear these guys to pieces, but more so if it was late in the summer I think. He could well ride away from them all with 3-4kms to go, he may even attack from the bottom of the climb with 10kms to go or even on the previous climb with 35kms to go.. you wouldn't put it past the little Colombian. But I think he might sit in today though, feel how the legs are going, eye up the opposition and bide his time for Port Aine, a climb much more suited to his abilities. At 14/1 though he looks very big, but I think that's because the bookies are thinking along the same lines as me.

Dan Martin could be a dark horse here too, not that he is an outsider or anything like that, he's a former winner of this race after all, but if Froome, Contador, Quintana, Porte and Van Garderen all start watching each other, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Etixx man light it up, attacking with 2-3kms to go. Fabio Aru likewise, he could be on the fringes here, and with a relatively lightweight team here with him, he may only have Lopez with him for company on the final climb. He could attack as well, but also I think he may just sit in and ride to the finish watching Contador, Froome and company if they are not after sprinting up the hill away from him. 

Ilnur Zakarin and Joaquim Rodriguez could well be there at the finish too and Rodriguez won on this climb two years ago, with an attack that left Froome and Contador floundering behind him. I don't think Purito has that sort of kick left in him any more, but then again I did think that last year too in the TDF before he sprinted up the Mur de Huy to victory! At just 9/2 I'm not interested though. Zakarin might give it a go, but they are wary of him now I think, he will no longer have the element of surprise as he would have in the past I think and 14/1 is a little short I think.

Esteban Chaves and Romain Bardet are similar prices and both could go well on a good day, but I think they will be happy to sit in and ride to the finish in the top 10. Michael Woods will be an interesting one to watch, this is a big step up from Willunga Hill in the TDU though, I might watch tomorrow to see about backing him some time in the future. Rigo Uran, Miguel Angel 'Superman' Lopez and Pozzovivo are all around 40/1, but I think 5th to 10th at best for them, unless something happens to Aru, whereby Lopez might be given free reign to attack. 

Outsiders at big prices include Davide Formolo at 150/1, Joe Dombrowski at 250/1 and Merhawi Kudus at 200/1. Also, Omar Fraile has lost time two days running, has almost been last both days.. so either he's not in good shape or he has been deliberately losing time for the last two days and saving his legs for a long-range attack, at 150/1 he could be worth a tiny bet. 

I think though we could see a GC battle here inside the last 5kms, I don't give a break much chance of making it. I think Sky hold the key to the race and will drill it up the Molina first time around to lighten up the peloton and second time around to test the legs of some of the weaker links left in. Thomas or Poels or even Roche could attack, Roche seems to have good legs, and if so, Froome could get an easy ride. It will force Contador and the others to chase them down. Froome could then attack away at the finish.

Contador could attack but I think he'll be reeled in and there could be a bit of a stall and stalemate as they look at each other where someone like Dan Martin or Richie Porte could try their luck. Tomorrow could be a chance for Martin, as the top GC favourites might be waiting until the next stage to really go for it. If the others are watching Van Garderen, Porte might go in the last kilometre with his punchy attack that nearly caught Van Garderen last year. I don't think Quintana, Pozzovivo or 

 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Dan Martin at 11/1 with Bet365

0.75pts each-way on Richie Porte at 14/1 with Ladbrokes 

0.15pts each-way on Omar Fraile at 150/1 with Ladbrokes

 

MatchBets

Porte to beat Quintana - 2pts at evens with Ladbrokes

TVG to beat Pozzovivo and Contador to beat Quintana - 2pts at 1.3/1 with Bet365 

 

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Stage 4 

Stage 4 - Bagà to Port Ainé

Thursday March 24th, 172.2kms

Well that was a cracking day on the Volta! Nearly 17pts profit thanks to a to-the-script finish by Richie Porte and Dan Martin, Martin taking another superb win for Dan Martin on his home training roads. Porte indeed gave it a go, but faded unfortunately out of the top three, but only just, but was good enough to land his matchbet with Quintana by just one place. All matchbets landed, which is a great feeling and we even got losing stakes back on Fraile as he didn't start due to illness. Contador tried, but just couldn't make it stick as I predicted, but held on for an excellent 2nd place. Froome just couldn't go with the leaders when the attacks came. Rodriguez didn't have the kick either and it was a brilliant ride by both Bardet to finish 3rd and Davide Formolo in 7th who I highlighted at 150/1. 

It was a small winning day too over in Dwar Doors thanks to almost a clean sweep of matchbets, Gatto in 7th was the closest we got to a winner, it looked more promising at some points along the way though with Gatto, Benoot and Senechal all featuring towards the front. The day wasn't hard enough though and it ended up being a sprinters finish, with Debuscherre just pipping a very unlucky Bryan Coquard on the line. Theuns with another great result here in 3rd after his 2nd last year, Pozzato a spectacular 4th and Gaviria back in 10th. 

So where does this leave the GC in Catalunya? Well Dan Martin, who was 28/1 last night, and I came oh-so-close to backing him, now leads by 6" from Contador, with Bardet 2" further back in 3rd. Van Garderen is 4th +12" and Quintana is 5th, +19", with Froome and Zakarin sitting 22" down on Martin. So all to play for ahead of the Queen stage. 

Another climbing stage, another familiar and well-used finish to Alt de Port Ainé. The stage starts with a bang with the Cat 3 climb of the Tunel del Cadli starting straight from km 0 and climbing 5.4kms at an average of 6%. Expect to see some strong climbers down the GC look to get away early on this climb as they could build up a big lead pretty quickly in the first 75kms of the stage. Once over the top it's downhill for nearly 80kms until they reach the first Especiale climb of the race, the Port del Canto.

The Port del Canto is a really long climb at 24.3kms, averaging 4.5%, hitting a max of 12% - it isn't so steep for the first 15kms or so, but gets steeper for the last 9kms. There's less than 64kms left in the stage once over the top, so we are bound to see some of the favourites looking to put on the hurt early on to try to drop some of their rivals, Sky in particular. After a very fast descent for 20kms as there are just they hit the Alt d'Enviny. This is a lot shorter at 8kms, but steeper at an average of 6.8%, so we could see some more attacks here as riders look to try to get away ahead of the final climb of the day, as there's just 35kms to go. A short plateau after the top is then followed by a descent to the bottom of the final climb to the summit finish at Alt de Port Ainé.

The Alt de Port Ainé is another Especiale climb and a real back-breaker - 18.5kms at an average of 6.8%, with max gradients hitting 12%. It's a very steady climb though that twists and winds its way up the mountain with multiple switchbacks and tight bends. The start of the climb is hard, averaging 8.4% for the first 3kms, then eases back a little. The section from 2km to 1km to go averages 9%, with parts hitting 11%, then the last 900m are at an average of 5.4%, but there is a section at 10% just before it eases back a little to a flatter run to the line. With 2kms to go they take a left-hand switch-back and it's almost straight for the last 2kms, in a south-easterly direction, before a final tight left-hander with 50m to go.

The weather should be good, but with a slight north-easterly wind, meaning they will have a head-wind for most of the last 50kms, but more of a cross-wind for the last 2kms. I don't think it will affect the outcome much though. 

So what did we learn from today's action? Not a great deal I think.. Martin did exactly as I thought he might, take advantage of a slight stall from the favourites as they all looked at each other when Quintana attacked with 500m to go. He was just too punchy for them on a climb he knows well, he went at just the right time to ride up to, and blast right past Quintana's weak attack. In fact Quintana attacked twice in the last kilometre, neither of which really got anywhere, but you don't know if he was playing games a little today, or if he really wasn't feeling great.

Tejay seemed to be looking pretty good, came to the front strongly and rode after Martin with Contador on his wheel, but when Dan kicked again with 250m to go he had no answer and Contador had to ride around him and go after Martin. Alberto Contador was clearly best of the rest then after Martin on a finish that didn't really suit him, he should be much more suited to tomorrow's stage. He did claim afterwards, backed up by DS Sean Yates, that he didn't have great legs today and that he didn't feel great all day, only feeling a bit better right at the end when it all kicked off. He's 9/4 to win tomorrow, but only 11/10 to win the overall, I guess he could lose tomorrow to an outsider down the GC but finish ahead of his GC rivals and thus win the overall - I don't think the GC will change much after tomorrow's stage. 

Chris Froome was disappointing today, but then again so were the whole Sky team. I did hint earlier that Froome has been saying he is here to break himself in to racing, his main objective of course comes in July. At the same time, he normally rides to win, and he sounded disappointed with his ride after today's stage, but reiterated that he is just coming back to racing and that today didn't really suit him, that tomorrow was a different type of stage. Poels faded quickly after his brief attack with 2kms to go and Nieve and Thomas both disappeared as well at the finish. I'm not sure we'll see them spending so much time at the front tomorrow and will save themselves for later in the climb. I'm not holding my breath as to what they can do though.

Nairo Quintana said he wasn't feeling great either today, but still attacked a few times in the last 2kms, and at one point, just before he attacked after Poels he seemed to bump in to someone and did well to keep himself upright on the bike. He attacked first, was not much, they all rolled up to him easily. When he attacked the second time he strung it out a bit more and got a gap, but the ease with which Martin raced past him must be taken as a bit of a warning sign, there wasn't much left in his legs. 

BMC still have two riders in with big chances here, with both Tejay and Dickie Doors in the top 6, within 19" of Martin. They both looked strong today and Porte's attack was the most impressive bar Martin's, he looked strong in stringing them all out. Tejay looked comfortable enough too, but said afterwards that he wished he had a bit more response in his legs when Martin went, but had to claw his way back and that cost him energy.. He added though ominously 'Tomorrow, it'll be a big stage, that's all I can say".....

Richie Porte is looking strong enough to stay with the leading climbers here and we could well see him sprint away from them in the last kilometre if they watch Tejay. I like Porte for tomorrow at a decent price (16/1) but as I'm on him for the overall I think I'll just cheer him on with that ticket. Tejay could attack and try to solo to victory like on La Molina last year, he too looks to be strong and will need to get away solo to win the race, he won't win a sprint finish amongst GC guys and he needs time on Contador. 

Everyone is ruling Dan Martin out it seems, he won't stay with the best climbers here, he is never good on long climbs like this etc.. Well, yes, that is indeed often the case, but I think he has a big chance of hanging in there tomorrow and if he does, he could even be a big danger to win the stage, he showed today he is the most explosive of them all over the last 500m of a climb. He has a very strong team here with him and he sounds very happy and very confident that he can put in a big ride tomorrow.

He won on this climb in 2014 on his way to overall victory, a win though that was helped by the fact that Valverde crashed and Movistar knocked back the chase. Regardless of that fact, Martin knows the climb well, knows what it takes to ride up it full gas and I would think that he has trained on it multiple times over the winter. If he can just stay within 5-10 seconds of the winner he may well land a podium spot at worst, and the 28/1 I took on him each-way last night (and completely forgot I did) might just pay out a few quid. It will be up to Etixx to try to control the race tomorrow, but also they may be happy to let a strong break of riders way down the GC fight out the finish tomorrow and take any bonus seconds away.. that way Martin can hold on to his jersey by just finishing in the same time or within a few seconds of the first GC favourites home. 

Joaquim Rodriguez was disappointing today, but don't say I didn't warn you. One I did warn to watch out for from a positive stance was Davide Formolo and he defied odds of 150/1 to finish 7th, just 11" down. He has said tonight that he is going to try something tomorrow, so his odds of 66/1 with 365 were worth a nibble. Hugh Carthy was impressive today finishing 10th with Rigo Uran, an impressive ride by the young Brit. A good showing tomorrow should secure him a top 10 overall which would be a great result. Lopez and Aru both lost time today and I don't know if they have the legs to be doing anything tomorrow either. Domenico Pozzovivo was very disappointing too today, he said he just didn't have good legs and finished 28" down. Aru could win his matchbet with Pozzo tomorrow I think.. 

Ilnur Zakarin looked strong with 2kms to go, closing down Porte's attack, but as he admitted afterwards, he just didn't have the speed to go with Martin in the last 500m. He could be a big danger tomorrow on a more steady, longer climb, I think he may well hang in there with the main GC men to the finish, and he could sprint to a good placing. Finally, Romain Bardet did another stealth ride, slipping in to 3rd place on the stage almost un-noticed, and in to 3rd in the GC too. He has been a little hit and miss with his climbing this year, with a great performance like on Green Mountain to finish 2nd to Nibali followed by losing 30" to Zakarin, Thomas and Contador on Madone d'Utelle in P-N. He was not able to go with the best guys that day in the last kilometre, can he turn that form around tomorrow and ride away from Contador and Porte? I'm not sure. He could well finish on the podium though. 

Finally, a few longshots for the break, as there are some riders who may have come here with just this stage in mind and lost lots of time today.. Riders like Ryder Hesjedal might want to get up the road, he's nearly 29 minutes down on GC. He could be a carrot for Formolo to try something later on. Mickael Cherel at 200/1 could try to get in the break too, as could Ruben Plaza, it's a kind of stage he'll like and he looked big to me at 200/1. Warren Barguil and Winner Anacona were two other riders I was thinking of backing for this stage, but they are not too far off in the GC at all, not enough to be given too much freedom, so I don't think they'll be left stay away. Adding Ricardo Zoidl too at 200/1 with Bet365, he is over 11 minutes down and could well try to go in the break of the day today too. Georg Preidler is another that might get up the road too at 200/1 and I just saw Cherel on rollers this morning warming up ahead of the stage, he must be keen to get in the break, but no one is offering odds at the moment.. I've put in a request.. 

As it is though, a lot of the riders complained of not having great legs, and it certainly looked like that for some at the finish today, and that was on a stage that many also described as not being too hard. Tomorrow is going to be hard and if it is that some like Contador, Froome and Quintana are not in the best of shape it might be a slog to the top of the mountain, and that could play in to Martin's hands for the GC, and possibly even the stage. I think the BMC boys will look to blow it up tomorrow and I'm hoping Richie rides on to a podium spot, but he might have to sacrifice it for Tejay if Tejay's going well. Of course if could all have been bluffs and games today and the likes of Froome and Quintana turn up tomorrow and go at it hammer and tongs, they are well able to recover from poor days with massive rides, we saw that from Froome in the Ruta del Sol last year. 

With Martin, Porte and Zakarin still in with good chances of good GC placings, I'm not going to go mad with bets for tomorrow on the favourites, it could be a surprise winner, or even a break could make it. I wouldn't be surprised though if Martin hung in there and even managed to nick the stage at the end too, he looked strong and comfortable today, easily riding up to and away from the front of the peloton. Bet365 pushed him out to 20/1 from 18s and I thought that was worth reinvesting some of today's winnings on. If there is one rider who is likely to ride off the front though it's probably Contador, but I'm not that tempted by the 9/4 on offer, I think he might find one or two too good for him again.

 

Recommendations:

0.3pts each-way on Davide Formolo at 66/1 with Bet365

0.2pts each-way on Ruben Plaza at 200/1

0.5pts each-way on Dan Martin at 20/1 with Bet365 

0.2pts each-way on Riccardo Zoidl at 200/1 with Bet365

 

Matchbets:

Uran to beat Rodriguez - 2.5pts at 4/5 with 365

Formolo to beat Navarro - 2pts at 5/6

Aru to beat Pozzovivo, Contador to beat Froome - 2pts on the double at 1.9/1

De Clerq to beat Degand & Aru to beat Pozzovivo - 2pts at 11/10

 

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Stage 5 

Stage 5 - Rialp to Valls

Friday March 25th, 187.2km  

An interesting stage today, stolen from Peter Weening by 200/1 man Thomas de Gendt. Our 200/1 man Ruben Plaza gave us a run for our money too though, being in the break of the day, but despite trading down to 7/2 favourite at one point, he faded badly as soon as they started the final climb and disappeared from the action. Quintana exploded in to life to take the stage in fine style and move in to the lead overall, with Contador finding one or two too good for him as I said might happen.. Dan Martin did great to almost hang on to a top three spot, that place was taken by Richie Porte who has moved on to the podium for us, and sits just 17" off Quintana. Martin isn't out of it yet with three stages to go, he's just 24" down or 7" off the podium. 

As for Sky? What is going on there.. I didn't expect much from them today, but that was a crazy stage by them. Ben Swift in the break on a mountain stage, Woet Poels attacking from far out but not really getting very far despite the assistance of Swift and Froome had no answer for Quintana or Contador when they kicked off and finished 37" behind Quintana and now sits in 8th place overall with little chance of even making the podium now. Thomas is even worse, he finished more than 14 minutes down. You'd be pretty disappointed if you had backed either of them to win the race. 

+4pts on the day thanks to the match bets, Uran easily dispatching Rodriguez and Aru and De Clerq also doing the business. Only Formolo let us down for the cleansweep again, he finished 13" behind Navarro. Porte has moved in to the money for us too at 14/1 for the overall, but it will take illness or accident I think for him to win it and for Dan to move on to the podium. But stranger things have happened, and there's still only 46" between the first eight riders. You'd never know though, Dan Martin could pull another surprise out of the bag tomorrow and nick another stage win.. 

A day that could be for the break, a day after the really tough stage to Port Aine. A tired peloton might be willing to let a break go on a rolling course. It starts with 60kms of a descent before a climb up to the Cat 2 Port d'Ager, a 9km climb that averages 5% over 9.6kms, and we could see a strong break try to get away on the run up to the climb - it could be a very fast start to the stage and we mightn't see the break get established for maybe 40-50kms. Once over the Port d'Ager there's still 112kms to go so plenty of timefor the peloton to get organised and chase them down, but I wouldn't be surprised if the break built up a lead of over 10 minutes on a stage like this. 

From the 100km point the road rises up again, climbing for nearly 60kms until they pass over the uncategorised climb just after the Conca de Barbera. A fast 20km descent and they are on the final challenge of the day, the Alt de Lilla, a Cat 2 climb of 4.1kms at a 4.8% average, so nothing too difficult. But with the top of the hill coming just 10.6kms from the finish it should be raced extremely fast in an effort to strip the sprinters out of it. It is just about obvious in the profile below, but the road rises up in two little kicks inside the last 2kms, first an 800m stretch at 5%, then a little dip for 300m before the last 700m to the line rises up at 2.9% average. 

If a break has made it with enough time on that last climb expect attacks galore and we may see a solo winner. If the peloton reel them in there should also be attacks from the puncheurs but we could see a reduced bunch sprint that will suit those who like an uphill sprint finish. 

With Nacer Bouhanni gone home now, suffering form the stomach problems that he was feeling on stage 2, there aren't many sprinters left in the race. Will there be any left at all at the end of the stage with the Cat 2 climb so close to the finish? Possibly not.. but then again, the types of sprinters who did come here knew what they were getting themselves in for and most of them are able to deal with the smaller climbs like this. 

But that is if they even get a chance to contest a sprint - I said at the outset of the race when first looking at the stage that it could be one for the break and I haven't changed my mind on that. Picking some lottery tickets for the break though is almost impossible, but a few guesses would be Vasil Kiryienka at 150/1 (Sky's chance of a top finish are now gone), Cam Meyer at 150/1 and Paolo Tiralongo for Astana at 80/1 with Bet365. Tiralongo didn't do too badly today, finished 12 minutes down, so the legs aren't that bad, and Astana don't have anyone challenging for the GC now either so me might be given some freedom. 

Other than that, I thought about Gilbert for this finish, but then he did that stupid attack attack today on a stage for climbers and expended quite a bit of energy, maybe he doesn't fancy it tomorrow or something. Simon Gerrans could be up there, or will it be Impey? I think no matter who we pick they'll let us down, the OGE guys are not going great in Catalunya from what I can see. Meersman could be up there, he seems to have recovered from his day spent in the airport that saw him struggle on Stage 1, taking a good 3rd place on stage 2. 9/1 is ok for an each-way maybe. Ben Swift is too short I think at 11/2 (way too short at 9/2 with PP), I couldn't trust Sky to lead him to the startline let alone to the front for the sprint. 

My picks from before are tempting me again, Barbero and Reijnen finished 5th and 6th last time out, Barbero looks to be lacking the killer kick I think but Reijnen seems to be getting better and is worth another shot at 80/1, it's too big. It really could be anything tomorrow and it's a day to play it small.

Recommendations

0.3pts each-way on Kiel Reijnen at 80/1 with Bet365

0.25pts each-way on Vasil Kiryienka at 150/1 with Bet365

0.25pts each-way on Cameron Meyer at 150/1 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way on Paolo Tiralongo at 80/1 with Bet365 

 

 

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Stage 6 

Stage 6 - Sant Joan Despi to Vilanova i la Geltru

Saturday March 26th, 197.2kms 

A stage that should be for the sprinters, with a few lumps along what is an untypically flat stage for Catalunya. There is a little lump 5kms from the finish that you can barely see on the profile below that could see some late attacks ahead of a likely sprint finish. 

 

CLICK HERE FOR THE STAGE PREVIEW, SITE IS ACTING FUNNY TONIGHT AND I CAN'T SAVE MY PREVIEW HERE FOR SOME REASON, BUT I WAS ABLE TO CREATE A NEW PAGE AND PUBLISH IT THERE.. 

Recommendations: 

 

 

Matchbets

 

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Stage 7 

Stage 7 - Barcelona to Barcelona

Sunday March 27th, 136.4km

The final stage, the customary run around Barcelona ending with eight laps around the city taking in eight ascents of the Alt de Montjuic. It can end in a sprint finish like last year when Valverde beat Bryan Coquard or it can end with a break winning, like when Lieuwe Westra won in torrential rain in 2014.

Recommendations: 

 

Matchbets:

 

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Alt de Monjuic