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- Published on Tuesday, 31 January 2017 23:03
Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana
Valencia, Spain
1st-5th February 2017
The Dubai Tour isn't the only race on this week, as the cycling season starts to well and truly get under way. The Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana gives rider who haven't taken part in the TDU or have headed to Dubai a good way to start their season with an interesting course to tackle
Woet Poels took this race in 2016, by first dominating the opening time trial and then winning solo on the Queen Stage to Xorret del Cati. Luis Leon Sanchez was 2nd, following his fine 2nd in the TT, and the other mountain stage was won in fine style by Dan Martin, his first victory in his new Quickstep colours.
Due to financial difficulties the race had not been held since 2008, when Ruben Plaza was the last victor, but the race seems to be on a relatively strong footing now and has attracted a very strong field this year. Nairo Quintana, fresh from having some fun in Majorca, Dan Martin, Woet Poels, Tony Martin, Philippe Gilbert, Michal Kwiatkowski, Greg Van Avermaet, Ilnur Zakarin, Thibaut Pinot, Nacer Bouhanni and Bryan Coquard are amongst a star-studded lineup that will battle it out over the five stages.
The race starts in a most unusual way, a 37.9km team time trial over quite lumpy terrain, that even sees them crest a Cat 3 summit. Stage 2 is a lumpy affair over 178kms, which has no fewer than 5 Cat 3 climbs along the way, including one just 6kms from the finish on the Alto de Montgo (which they climb twice on a finishing circuit. Stage 3 should be one for the sprinters, unless a break makes it but it has a hill to get over about half way and the finish is an uphill sprint. Stage 4 is one that will probably decide the GC, with a 180km route that takes them over a Cat 3, two Cat 2s and two Cat 1s, including the summit finish at Llucena. Stage 5 sees them go over a Cat 3 climb with just 52kms gone, but from there on it's downhill and a flat run for 60kms, so should end in a bunch sprint.
It's a far stronger looking race than the sprint-in-the-sand-fest that is the Dubai Tour, but that opening TTT is going to be something else.. For the vast majority of these guys, the first time they are pinning on a race number this year sees them facing a 38km team time trial over a number of hills. 38kms?! There are going to be some huge gaps already after only the first stage, and we could see a situation where if you are not in the first two or three teams home then your race might be over already. It could then lend itself to lots of attacks for the rest of the week though, which isn't a bad thing either..
I'll try to do as much as I can in this preview this week, but with the Dubai Tour going on too and a busy working week ahead of me, it may not be over-elaborate..!
The Route
Stage 1
Orihuela (Playa La Glea) - Orihuela
Wednesday 1st February, 37.8kms
A Team Time Trial over nearly 38kms.. there haven't been many TTTs longer than this in quite a while, save for the World Championships, so this is going to be a huge shock to the system on the very first stage. If you are not feeling great, if your team is not feeling great, then it could be all over after the first stage. The winning team will fill the top 5 slots on the GC, the second team the next 5 and the winner of the race may well come from these two teams, unless the gaps between say the first three or four teams isn't that great.
The road climbs for more or less the whole first 11kms, until they crest the Cat 3 climb of the San Miguel de Salinas, then rolls along for the next 20kms with a few little pinches thrown in along the way. The last 5kms are downhill and it's where the powerful teams who have kept something in reserve will really need to push on to make the timegaps that might make all the difference.
Contenders
Movistar look to have a seriously strong TTT team here, with Andrey Amador, Jonathan Castroviejo, the two Herradas, Dani Moreno and even Nairo Quintana, who isn't a bad time triallist at all in his own right. Amador and Castroviejo will be the engines in the team, Nairo, Dayer and the Herradas will be pulling on the climbs. It is a great opportunity for Quintana to take a lead over his rivals after just the first stage, and if the margin of victory is big enough, this race could be all over after just one day.
BMC are always going to be a danger in TTTs though of course, and they too have a strong squad here that will be fighting for victory. Dethroned as World Champions by Quickstep last season, the BMC boys will mean to start this season well and this looks like a course that will suit their squad too. Quinziato, Kung, Bohli, Van Avermaet and Hermans are the engines in the team, Roche, De Marchi and Schar will be doing the pulling on the hills.. If anyone can serve it up to Movistar, it's these guys.
Quickstep are World Champions in the TTT as I just mentioned, and they'll be looking to get the race off to a good start for their GC man Dan Martin. And it's a seriously powerful squad he has here to help him, let's hope he can keep up with them.. Niki Terpstra, Iljo Keisse, Yves Lampaert, Zdenek Stybar, Laurens de Plus and Philippe Gilbert all have massive engines. Not brilliant time triallists on their own, and theywill of course miss the power and presence of Tony Martin, who is now with Katusha of course (I'm still getting used to that change.. ) but together they are a very powerful bunch of guys.
Whether they will be able to hold their own up the opening 11kms to the climb in order to give themselves a chance of victory over the remaining 24kms remains to be seen, but if they are in with a shout at the summit then they have a big chance.
Team LottoNL-Jumbo have a decent looking team here on paper too, with Jos Van Emden, Primus Roglic, Stef Clement, Martijn Keizer and Steven Kruijswijk among their numbers. Roglic and Kruijswijk are both in with chances in the GC, but it will depend on just how well they do in this TT I think. If they can be in the top 3 here, with a 30" plus lead over some of their rivals they could be in the hunt for the win alright.
Katusha have the power of Tony Martin now in their ranks and Ilnur Zakarin will be hoping to go well here this week. They are aided by Maxime Belkov, Mamykin, Losada and Kuznetsov, but I think Tony will not be enough to pull them on to a top 3 placing.
Team Sky will be looking to get Wout Poels off to a good start in the defence of his title, and he has a reasonably strong squad here to support him. Vasily Kiryienka had a disappointing year by his standards in the rainbow jersey, but he is still a force to be reckoned with in these kinds of time trials. Michal Kwiatkowski, Nicholas Roche, Pete Kennaugh, Philip Deignan and the rest will put in a good performance I think, but they might have to settle for 4th to 6th.
And that's about it for the contenders I think, Orica-Scott could go well, but the other teams look too light to me to make an impact, Cannondale, AG2R, FDJ, Cofidis, Direct Energie and the rest will be looking to just limit their losses so their GC men are not minutes behind starting stage two.
Unfortunately, we have had another shit-show from the bookies with this race, with not one of them pricing up this stage, and only Skybet pricing up the overall GC market, so there are no bets to be had for tomorrow's stage.
Just for shits and giggles, here are my top 3:
BMC
Movistar
Quickstep
Route Map
Profile
Stage 2
Alicante - Denia, 178.6kms
Thursday 2nd February
So one day down, and it already looks over in the GC for most - BMC and Sky totally destroyed the rest of the peloton, BMC winning by 20" from Sky, who were in turn 28" ahead of Quickstep. Movistar were the big disappointment of the day, particularly for those that took the 5/6 on Nairo Quintana to win this race, they lost 1'02" to BMC and 41" to Sky. It all but finishes their chances in this race, and whether the organisers still think it was a good idea to open the race with a 38km TTT remains to be seen - there are only a handful of riders left in contention, from two, maybe three teams, but it could also mean we see more attacking racing over the coming days.
But the gamble may have backfired, in that we might get two teams now who will just control the race for the next few days until it can be decided on the Queen stage, and we might see a lot of the GC men who are out of contention treat the rest of the race like a training ride and not waste unnecessary energy.
Woet Poels has now taken over favouritism at evens, from 9/4 pre-race, and he does look to be in a good position to ride in to the lead on stage 4. He will have stiff opposition from BMC though, and possibly not just on the Queen stage. Ben Hermans is 10/1, he too will have chances this week, to nick bonus seconds along the way, or even to attack on the other stages rather than waiting for the Queen stage. This will force Sky to chase and it can play in to the hands of the other BMC men like Roche or Van Avermaet.
Dan Martin isn't out of it either as he is just 49" behind, a good attack by him on the summit finish of stage 4 and he could find himself in the top 3. David Lopez isn't out of it yet either, nor is Nairo Quintana who is now 12/1 from the 5/6 he was pre-race.
A day for the sprinters, or a day for the break? Or a day for a late attack over that climb of the Alto de Montgo which comes just 6kms from the finish. The route takes them north and away from Alicante in to the hills that run parallel to the coast and they spend the majority of the day heading in a north-east direction heading towards Denia.
After 140kms they reach the outskirts of Denia and start on the circuit that takes them up over the Alto de Montgo for the first time with 33kms to go, then descend for 5kms before looping around and tackling the climb for a second time. They may not go too fast up it the first time, but they will be going flat out up it the second time in an effort to shake out the sprinters.
But the two top sprinters here are pretty good at getting themselves over little climbs like this, so we could well still see Nacer Bouhannia and Bryan Coquard fighting it out at the finish. If I had to pick one of the two, Cofidis looks to have the stronger team, as Bouhanni has a number of his regular leadout, including Julien Simon, Geoffrey Soupe, Stephan Rosetto and Cyril Lemoine, and Jonas Van Genechten is a strong addition to that leadout, a fine sprinter in his own right, he recently took 2nd in the Trofeo Porreras in the Mallorca Challenge.
So who's it going to be then? An all-day break has a chance, so the likes of Jens Keukeleire, Oliver Naesen, Ben Hermans, Pim Ligthart and the like might try to get up the road. Late puncheurs like Philippe Gilbert, Zdenek Stybar and Michal Kwiatkowski might try to get away on the final circuit, but it is most likely to come down to a sprint.
And that sprint will probably be fought out amongst the top two in the betting, Nacer Bouhannia and Bryan Coquard are both 7/2 with Kirolbet, the only bookie that has priced up the stage. Greg Van Avermaet is 11/2 and Magnus Cort Neilsen is 7/1. They are the main guys for the sprint, Philippe Gilbert, Michael Albasini are 24/1 for the late attacks, but the other guy that caught my eye at a big price is Pim Ligthart, he goes well at the start of the season (former winner of the GP Marsellaise) and he could well try a late attack, or even if they make it a hard run-in to try to shake off the top sprinters, he might be able to hang in there and fight out the finish.
So no odds again from the supposed biggest bookies in the business, Kirolbet have odds though for those of you who can get on. Bouhanni is my favourite though, but Ligthart may get in the mix at 40/1.
As for the GC, not sure tomorrow's stage will make any difference to the overall, so I think I'll wait a day or so before making any decisions on what to do with any other GC bets.
Recommendations:
2pts win on Nacer Bouhanni at 7/2
0.25pts each-way on Pim Ligthart at 40/1
Route Map
Profile
Stage 3
Canals - Riba-roja de Túria 163kms
Friday 3rd February
Mmmmm - so I picked out a 40/1 placed rider today, but hadn't a penny on him.. how annoying! Pim Ligthart did great to get up to 'win' the sprint at the end of a pretty wild finish, but Tony Martin was just too smart and too good for them all today. What a superb win for Martin though to kick off his season in his new Katusha jersey, that still takes a bit of getting used to.
It was incredibly impressive though to see him not only hang on on a climb that they took at a pretty fast clip, but he then still had the strength to attack repeatedly while still climbing to first go with De La Cruz and a little group, and then to attack again and get away from them. When Tony got in to TT mode, no one was going to catch him.
The rest of the peloton was scattered all over the place, that final climb caused a lot more damage than was expected, there were no sprinters left at the front at the finish, Bouhanni finished with the grupetto, some 20 minutes down. Nairo Quintana was awake to the moves though and was in the first chase group after Martin, he managed to finish just 11" down, with a group just 8" behind that included Gilbert, Van Avermaet and Dan Martin, but Nico Roche lost 56" to Martin. GVA is the new race leader but he's on the same time as Senni and Hermans, his two team-mates. David Lopez is only 21" back now though and is a big danger, Roche is 37" down, Dan Martin is 49" back and Quintana is 54" down. Still all to play for!
A pretty non-descript stage that takes them north from Canals to Riba Roja de Túria, which, even though they have to climb over a climb that goes on for some 40kms midway, it should still end in a bunch sprint at the finish. The climb that they crest after 80kms is uncategorised, but rises to nearly 400m, but that sort of easy gradients shouldn't see too many getting shelled out the back. The sprint is uphill though, which might bring a few other sprinters like Philippe Gilbert, Magnus Cort Neilsen or GVA in to the equation.
No odds again available for this stage, so I'm not going to bother going through all their chances, Kirolbet have made Bouhanni and Coquard joint 5/4 favourites and that's just ridiculous, no interest in trying to pick one of those at 5/4, but I stick with my view that Cofidis has the better team here. I'd rather be on Ligthart again at 50/1.
Route Map
Profile
Stage 4
Segorbe - Lucena del Cid "Mas de la Costa", 180.9kms
Saturday February 4th
A good win by Magnus Cort Neilsen today, the Orica man stomped his way to victory, beating Bouhanni by a tyre-width. It was a pretty messy sprint, but Neilsen's brute strength saw him win it. Van Avermaet was right up there protecting his yellow jersey, but Dan Martin, Nico Roche and several others lost 7" or more due to splits in the run in to the finish. Still all to play for in the GC, Van Avermaet holds a narrow lead over Hermans and Senni, with Lopez just 28" behind.
And we're on to the Queen stage before you know it.. It's reasonably long at 180kms as it loops northward and in to Aragon and then east, south, west and back north again to the finish in Lucena del Cid. So if it's a windy day they will be getting it from all sides making it a difficult day to control.
There are six hills in total to get over in the first 94kms, three of which are categorised, with two Cat 2s and a Cat 1, the Alto de Puertomingalvo. They then descend for more or less the next 50kms, interrupted along the way with a Cat 3 climb after 126kms. They then descend down towards Costur and run along a flat section along the river valley until they reach the foot of the final climb.
The climb up to Camins del Penyagolosa was used in the Vuelta last year on stage 17, a stage that saw riders literally scattered all over the mountain and coming in in ones and twos. Matthias Frank hung on from the break that day, from Leopold Konig and Robert Gesink, with Contador, Froome and Quintana coming in together 3'27" down.
The final climb is only 4kms, but it averages 12.4%, hitting gradients of 19, 20 and 22%, with some seriously steep parts. The climb tops out with 300m to go, although it's unlikely we will see a sprint finish of any sort as it's likely we will see them come in in single file again. The pace running in to the climb is sure to be fast and furious and we will get to see who really has come out of the pre-season best with such a brutal test so early in the season.
Hard to know how this will go so early in the season, and there are no odds available with the UK/Irish bookies again, which is pretty shit given that his is probably the best stage of all the races held this week. Quintana should be right up there, he has some good racing in his legs and has looked lively this week chasing after Tony Martin. Dan Martin might go well too but it might be a bit steep for him and he has been caught out a few times this week in splits. Greg Van Avermaet will find it really hard to hang on to the best climbers here, but Ben Hermans or Nico Roche might be able to keep BMC in the top 3.
David Lopez might be the one to take advantage tomorrow, he might be able to stay with the likes of Quintana and ride in to the leader's jersey. David De La Cruz has been lively this week too and can climb, he might be capable of a top 10 here too. Jesus Herrada, Adam and Simon Yates, Ilnur Zakarin, Thibaut Pinot - there are plenty of decent climbers here, so we could be in for a real battle. Woet Poels has to go on the attack tomorrow if he's going to retain his crown, but will he ride for Lopez who has a 30" advantage over him?
Really hard to call it - Kirol bet are the only bookie offering odds on the best stage of the week, they make Nairo the 5/4 favourite with Dan Martin 5/2, Woet Poels 13/2. De La Cruz, Thibaut Pinot and Michele Scarponi are all 17/1 and Zakarin and Fuglsang are 19/1. Adam Yates, Dani Navarro and Sergio Pardilla are all 50/1 and they might be involved too.
It's likely to be the Nairo show though and he could well leave them all behind on this brute of a climb. Pelle Bilbao was 4th on this climb in the Vuelta last year, he could go well too at 50/1. We may not be able to bet on it, but it should be a good watch.
Route Map
Profile
Stage 5
Paterna - Valencia, 130kms
Sunday February 5th
A Cat 3 climb to get over ater 52kms, but after that it's a flat run to a finishing circuit in Valencia which they do 7 laps of, and it's almost certain to end in a sprint finish.
Route Map
Profile
Overall Contenders and Favourites
Two stages will decide this race - the TTT and the fourth stage with the summit finish on the Mas de La Costa. Skybet are the only bookies to have put up prices for this race, and they are only after pricing the overall, not the first stage odds. But it's more than the other useless, lazy dicks have done - surely this race is a far more interesting prospect than pricing up Marcel Kittel's odds-on sprint stage in Dubai?!?
Skybet have made Nairo Quintana favourite and it looks the right call, he will get a good start with Movistar in the TTT and should go well on the Queen stage. He warmed up for this with plenty of attacking in the two races in the Mallorca challenge in the last week, at one point on one of the climbs he rode away from everyone else and had a gap of 30", only to be pulled back on the flatter sections later. He should be one of the first of the GC men home on the 4th stage, and together with a good TTT, it might be enough to win it for him. But 5/6? In a race that anything can happen, it's just too short.
Wout Poels is 2nd favourite at 9/4, and it may come down to just how much time his Sky team ships to Movistar in the TT, as Nairo should be able to stay pretty close to him on the Queen stage. Poels hasn't raced yet this year, so it's hard to know what sort of form he has, but he disappointed to me far too much last season to be trusting him at just 9/4 here.
Ilnur Zakarin can go well too, but he might find himself with quite a gap to make up after the TTT. Thibaut Pinot might be in an even worse situation, and I honestly can't see him riding away from the three riders named above, so the 9/1 on him is not of interest either.
Steven Kruijswijk and Primus Roglic can go well as they should be in the top 3 or 4 of the TTT and may be able to slip away on stage 4 when the others are watching each other too closely. Kruijswijk would be my pick out of the two of them though if there was a match bet on them.
Dan Martin looks a big price as he should get a good start with Quickstep and he tends to go well early in the season too, as we've seen in this race 12 months ago, when he took the second stage in fine style. He had lost over a minute though in the ITT on the day before, so his chances of a good GC placing was gone before he landed his stage win. There is no ITT this year of course, and he could go well on the st 4 final climb, but he may find 4kms at that sort of gradient a little too much. But of the riders I've named so far, I'd rather be on him at 16/1.
Adam and Simon Yates could go well on the Queen stage, but I fear they will have a different mountain to climb after the TTT, I think they could lose 30" plus to the likes of Quintana and that will be insurmountable I think. Nicholas Roche could be there or thereabouts too though as BMC should do well in the TTT, but Skybet haven't bothered to include him in the betting.
After that you are hoping for some riders to go on the break and stay away, someone like Greg Van Avermaet, Stef Clement, Matvey Mamikin or David de la Cruz, but with there being only one summit finish in the week, and with it being the stage that should decide the overall, I think that it will be unlikely that they will get too much of a gap. There may be some of these who manage to attack a reduced group on the final climb as the likes of Poels and Nairo watch each other, but it's hard to make a solid case for any of them given how little we know about their form.
So, not a lot to go on, not a lot of value with just one bookie, maybe later in the week some other bookies will price up the Queen stage and the GC, which should be still up for grabs, but right now, Dan Martin at 16/1 is the only one that appeals to me a little, and it's just a little, as he could well struggle on those steep slopes.
Recommendation:
0.75pt each-way on Dan Martin at 16/1 with Skybet