Stage 2 

Stage 2 - Qatar University to Qatar University

Tuesday, February 9th,  135 km

Well, what an incredible start to the race then, with a super-powerful group of 21 riders getting away after only 50kms and staying away all the way to the finish. What was surprising and unusual about the break was that almost every one of the key sprinters that are in Qatar made the split - Cavendish, Kristoff, Bennett, Modolo and Guardini. BMC and Katusha were mob-handed, with Van Avermaet doing his GC chances a power of good by making the split while TTers like Van Emden and Gretsche lost lots of time.

Van Avermaet had Quinziato, Schar and Oss with him and together with four from Katusha and three from Dimension Data and Bora-Argon, they were able to keep a suberb 21-man team time trial going all the way to the finish, holding the gap at a pretty steady 1 minute for more or less the whole day. 

Behind there was carnage - the peloton was in several pieces, there were crashes and four DNFs, and some big time losses - Boom, Westra and Gretsche can say goodbye to their chances this week after losing over 7 minutes. Van Emden lost and it now looks like the race is between just a handful of riders after just the first stage. Kristoff failed to capitalise on the gift though and despite a good leadout from his team he just wasn't able to finish it off and finished a surprising 5th, losing out on the chance of bonus seconds. 

Cavendish played it very smart, he was 'struggling' at the back towards the end of the stage, lots of back stretching, anguished faces, skipping turns and then sat on Kristoff's wheel and blasted past him in the last 100m. Modolo sprinted well, Guardini was a little one-paced, but Bennett will probably be disappointed with his 4th place, he was in a terrible position as the sprint started, right at the back of the main contenders, after his leadout got a little lost while following the wrong Katusha wheel in to the last kilometre. He finished fast, but not fast enough, he passed Kristoff, but couldn't get past Guardini for the podium spot.

So the race is more or less over as regards a GC competition, it looks like it's between just six riders if the betting is to be believed, with only Cav (7/4), GVA (7/2), Kristoff (9/2), EBH (6/1), Quinziato (9/1) and Kragh Anderson (16/1) under 40/1. That is with Bet365 who have come out with prices, PP are still trying to figure it out at 7.15pm. It's a pity that they are going win-only though as I've no interest in backing Cav at 7/4 and am on Kristoff already. I'm annoyed with myself I didn't back Quinziato at 40s after bigging him up, he's only 9/1 now. 

This is a strange stage, the first time they have had a stage around the Qatar University to the north of Doha, but will be important as these are some of the roads that will be used in the World's in October. It's a short stage at 135kms, and although they venture out in to desert a little bit as they head out towards Rawdat Al Ajouz for the first sprint point, this is effectively a crit stage as they complete the stage with four laps around the winding, twisting roads past the Pearl Qatar and the West Bay Lagoon.

It wasn't supposed to be too windy today and the race was still blown apart all day. The wind tomorrow is going to be a bit stronger, gusting in to the twenties coming from the north-west. This means that the first 50kms or so will be interesting as the wind will be a cross/head-wind as they head out towards the intermediate sprint at Rawdat Al Ajouz and head back towards the Pearl. We may well see the same thing happen as today with the powerful teams look to split it up again. 

A lot of teams and riders were caught out today, sleeping when the move came. They will have got a bollicking from their DSs after the stage for missing out on the split so it will be different tomorrow I think. We will probably still see echelons and splits but I think the lead group will be bigger and we could get a larger group come to the finish tomorrow. 

Cav is evens favourite for tomorrow, and on today's showing, with possibly more of his leadout with him he deserves to be favourite, he was just too fast for the rest of them. Kristoff was slow today and said afterwards he just didn't have the acceleration or speed when he tried to sprint. It's hard to know whether he can improve in just one stage so I'm not touching him at 7/2 or so. Guardini looked held by Modolo and he may have to settle for the minor placings again at best. 

It was annoying to see Lotto-Jumbo say this morning that they were going to ride for Hofland this week and they were going to try to win a stage. He finished '2nd' in the bunch sprint for 18th place, easily landing the match-bet at least, but I wanted to give him another go tomorrow to see if LottoJumbo can keep him in the front of the race and he gets a chance to sprint. The other sprinters had a really hard day today in the wind out front so it may be that he will be a little bit fresher at the finish. He was 33/1 with Paddy Power when they opened so I hit that, they cut him to 20/1 and he's 20/1 in general now. I still think that's worth a punt. 

Sam Bennett was indeed disappointed with his result, he said afterwards that he just wasn't aggressive enough and he should have pushed himself in to a better position for the sprint. He was pleased, but a little surprised to be involved in the big move of the day, saying he only just made the split as he was dangling off the last wheel. He lacked the confidence today, but I don't think he lacks the speed and I think he should take confidence from his last 50m when he was faster than most of them. Paddy Power are taking him on again, their trader really doesn't rate him does he.. they are 17/2, and that is worth an interest each-way as he is bound to come good soon. Also, one other point, the two team-mates he had with him weren't the better leadout men on the team, and if he can have Thwaites and especially Archbold with him he should be pulled in to a better position in the last kilometre. 

We could get a break of a different sort tomorrow though with the lesser teams and riders trying to get away and get some exposure, but either way I can't see a group not including the sprinters fighting this one out. A little unimaginative with same selections again, but I'm happy to give them another go as the other prices don't appeal a great deal to me. The finish is going to be quite crazy and chaotic with all the bends and turns, so I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the sprinters get caught out in a crash or a split.

One match bet appealed to me and that was Zaeytens Vs Capiot - Zaeytens was in the break today and I commented at the time that he looked like he was really struggling. He was swinging off the back and looked to be really suffering.. sure enough, next time a big push came, he was gone. Capiot had it 'easier' rolling in with the Grupetto today. It's possible that Capiot will be towards the front trying to get a result for Topsport. 

Recommendations: 

0.5pts each-way on Moreno Hofland at 33/1 with Paddy Power (take the 20/1)

0.3pts each-way on Sam Bennett at 17/2 with PP

Matchbets

Amaury Capiot to beat Zico Waeytens at 10/11 with Bet365 - 2.5pts

 

Route Map

 

 

  

 

Stage 3 

Stage 3 - Lusail Circuit ITT

Wednesday February 10th, 10.9kms

Another day in Qatar, another reason to understand why the likes of Movistar, Etixx-QS, Team Sky, Cannondale and the rest decided not to bother going this year. The riders were really winding things up, probably doing 60kmph with 800m to go, when suddenly they were faced with a road that seemed to split in front of them, with no barriers or warning. Some riders went to the left, and effectively would have taken themselves out of the race as they would have been on the wrong side of the barriers a little further up. But they were lucky - others just bounced off the kerb at the edge of the central reservation and hit the tarmac. Sam Bennett came down, Kragh Andersen did, and about another 10 riders. Others like Moreno Hofland had to take evasive action and lost all chance.

In the end, it was pretty amazing to see Kristoff do what I thought he would do the day before and take up the sprint early and hold off all challengers. As it was, his only challenger was Cavendish, and if there was betting in running he probably would have been 1/100 to come past him with 100m to go.. But Kristoff valiantly held on, he must have had his weetabix or some other recreational pick-me-up this morning to find the speed he was lacking yesterday. With 3 bonus seconds snagged earlier in the day when their break was away, and 4 more seconds than Cav at the finish, Kristoff is now back in the driving seat for the GC, as he sits just 5" behind Cavendish - I expect him to beat Cav by at least 20" in the TT so with two sprint stages left he should possible do enough to land the GC and the money for us.

The match bet landed, which was nice, Waeytens said after that he didn't come down in the crash so it does look indeed like he might have been tailed off towards the end, he finished in 118th, Capiot in 106th! Hard to know if Bennett and Hofland would have been able to get up to Kristoff and Cav, they were probably in around 10th/11th place as the crash happened, but at least they were trying and up for it - both of them had been in the early break of the day with several team-mates, they had got me a bit excited. Unfortunately, unlike stage 1, they were not able to hold on and were reeled in. But the fact that Roy Jans and GVA were 3rd and 4th probably suggests they would have been close.. 

On to the crucial stage 3 time trial then, with the race up for grabs still. This is exactly the same stage as last year (and several other years), a 10.9km individual Time Trial on the Lusail Motor Circuit. It's a very unusual TT in that the riders have to ride their road bikes as TT bikes aren't allowed in an effort to make it fairer for smaller teams who can't bring their full TT setups over to Qatar. It's also very unusual in that it is comprised of effectively just seven bends in 11kms, with long, straight sections connecting them. As they go out and back on the same stretches of roads in all directions, winds come at them from all sides.

The wind is going to be a major factor again this year, as this is forecast to be one of the windiest days of the race, with winds reaching 18mph in the afternoon. It is going to be a north-westerly wind so it will be a head-wind up the finishing straight for the best part of the last 3kms.

Last year Nikki Terpstra used his immense power to destroy the sprinters and even took renowned time triallists like Cancellara, Wiggins and Bodnar apart. He beat Kristoff by 44", and that was good enough for him to just hang on to the lead, despite Kristoff winning three stages. Maceij Bodnar finished 4th on the stage and that was good enough to seal 2nd place in the GC, the third placed rider Bradley Wiggins had lost over nine minutes on stage 2 when the peloton split in the wind. Greg Van Avermaet did an excellent TT to finish 9th, it was good enough to secure 5th place for him.

There's none of the top seven from last year's TT here with Tinkoff, Sky, Etixx-QuickStep and Trek all skipping the race this year. Edvald Boasson Hagen is the highest placed finisher on the TT last year starting this year, but Greg Van Avermaet is also here. 

You can see highlights of the TT last year to get an idea of just how straight and exposed the course is in the video below. 

So now that the race has been well and truly shaken up, the TT has taken on a slightly different significance - there will be two races going on - one for the GC amongst about 6 riders, and one for the stage. First, looking at the stage - with none of the top time trialists from last year and none of the best time triallists here it will be wide open this year for the stage and we have to start looking deeper to try to see if there is any value to be had. 

Jos Van Emden on paper is the best time triallist here, with some decent results in 2015 including the TDF prologue 5th place and the win in the Eneco Tour time trial. He evolved in the last two years in to a better time triallist and goes in to this race with high hopes of a big showing. Given the opposition that's here, you'd have to think he would be one of the top 5 here and has a good chance of winning. It was quite blustery that day in the Eneco Tour when he won so it looks like he doesn't seem to mind the wind too much. But they are on road bikes, not TT bikes and I think that will be a great neutraliser like it was in this stage last year. At 7/4, he's like Cav today, he probably should win, but the odds are too short to get me interested..

Lars Boom - hard to know what to make of his chances. Lot's of guys fancied him for this TT last year, he was 6/1 despite losing 23 minutes the day before. He finished 30" behind Terpstra, finishing a disappointing 14th. The year before though, he almost won this TT, losing to Hepburn by just a half a second. He was 5 seconds faster than Cancellara and 7 seconds faster than Terpstra, but the big difference was that in the previous two stages he had finished with the main groups, even taking 9th place on the stage just before this one. So confidence and motivation would have been a lot higher, and to me Boom is a real confidence and motivation rider - when he doesn't seem up for it, it looks like he couldn't be bothered. This year, he is already out of the race again after finishing over seven minutes down on stage 1. He has been busy this year too with trips to Australia and then racing the World Cyclo-Cross Championships, so I think we could see a similar result to last year, the 9/2 on him doesn't interest me.

Greg Van Avermaet is a superb classics rider, but is also quite a decent time triallist. His immense power and willingness to race his bike sees him pull off 'surprise' results like taking 9th place last year, an improvement on his 17th placing the year before, but only 1" quicker, losing to Terpstra by 23". He is clearly in great shape as he was instrumental in the push by BMC to get away and stay away on stage 1, he was looking strong all day, and again today, he took 4th place in the sprint.. If you take away the 7 riders that were above him last year, who are not here this year, GVA would have finished 2nd on the stage.

Of course, I'm not saying that he will finish 2nd this year as there are other TTers who have stepped in to replace the Terpstras and the Cancellaras, but he is sure to put in a big time - motivation is certainly there, as a good TT could see him take the race lead off of Cavendish, I think he will take at least 30" off of Cav, he beat Sagan by 31" last year and I would rate Sagan better than Cav over this distance. 9/2 is a bit tight, but he could be in the top 3 here. 

Daniel Oss is the second of the BMC triumverate who I think could go well in this TT. He too made the break in stage 1 and worked his legs off to help keep the chasers at bay for Van Avermaet (and Quinziato's) benefit. He did get dropped towards the finish when the job was done, but he showed good power out on the road. He is a regular in the BMC team time trial squad and is a two-time World Champion with the team. He regularly features in the top 25 or so in individual tests over the years and he should be right up there in the top ten I think - that is if he isn't asked to spare himself to look after GVA and Quinzi in the coming days, which is entirely possible as they are in the hunt for the overall win. I wouldn't be surprised to see BMC look to try to split things up again a few times before this race is over.

Manuel Quinziato is still in the hunt for overall victory and is one of the better time triallists here. Again, like Oss, he's a multiple World Champion and has an immense engine on him. It was he who made the final big push when the wind changed direction towards the end of stage 1 to shed some of the group. He looks in great shape and a top placing on the GC is not out of his reach if he can do a good TT here. I think he could put 30"+ in to Cavendish and Kristoff and even more on the rest of the top sprinters in the GC, so he could find himself in the top 3 at the end of today's stage. That is sure to add a few watts to his output and he could be a real contender today.

Patrick Gretsche disappointingly lost a lot of time on stage 1, coming home nearly eight minutes down in the third group after getting caught out with the splits. I had high hopes for him in this race based on the TT so he still has to be part of my thoughts for potential winners of this stage. Gretsche is an improving TTer who had some good TT results last year, including a fine 5th in the Giro TT behind Kiryienka, Sanchez and Contador, but that was quite a hilly one as you can tell from the riders above him. He also had good results in the Tour du Poitou Charentes TT (5th) and Tour of Poland (6th). I was thinking he was some value at 28/1 but his better results seem to be over longer distances so I'm going to leave him.

Jesse Sergent was another rider who was a big disappointment on Monday, also losing loads of time in the splits. Sergent looked like he might become a real Time Trial specialist a few years back and had excellent TT results in 2013 and 2014, but 2015 was a bit of a disaster to say the least. Maybe he wasn't happy at Trek, maybe he wasn't getting the support he required, he left for AG2R in the close season. But looking at his recent results, the 18/1 is pricing him on his form of 2013/14 and not 2015. The fact he finished only 7th in the NZ time trial champs in January and got dropped for 19 minutes on stage 1 suggests it would be advisable to steer clear of the Sergent.

Edvald Boasson Hagen is 7/1 for tomorrow and he would have a good chance of a big time, especially as he is still very much in the running for the GC. He is pretty good at the shorter TTs, finishing 8th in this stage last year, 3" ahead of Van Avermaet. He also took 5th in the Denmark Tour TT, that was over 13.6kms. He also seems to be riding well, fighting all the way to the line today to take 4th.. Hopefully that effort won't have taken too much out of him. 

Three places above EBH in that Denmark TT was Soren Kragh Anderson, a fantastic ride by the young man, then 20 yrs old. I had him in my thoughts for this, but he was involved in the crash today and looked a bit shook up riding to the finish, so that has put me off him. Lieuwe Westra could go well, but I think 10th-20th for him.

Hugo Houle was one I was waiting for to see what sort of price he'd be, and as soon as PP opened and he was 150/1 I took as much as they would allow me on him, which unfortunately was just 0.21pts each-way! He has since been cut to 80/1 and 50/1. The Canadian TT champion riding for AG2R has a big engine on him also finished 3rd in the 17.3km TT in San Luis last year, just 5" behind Malori, and 11th in the ITT in the Etoile de Besseges so he goes well early season. He was a great price at 150/1 for a longshot, 50/1 is a lot tighter but Ladbrokes have gone 66/1 and that might be worth a few pennies each-way. 

Damien Gaudin, Gediminas Bagdonas,  Arnaud Gerard, Joey Roskopf, Daniel Eaton - they could also surprise at big prices. It's a hard TT to read with what has happened this week and the unique conditions of this TT, but I think Van Emden, Lars Boom, Kragh Anderson, Sergent and Westra are all a bit short and could well disappoint. Van Avermaet, Quinziato, Gretsche and Houle could go well and I'm just going to have a small interst in Houle at 150s and Quinziato at 9/1 with a 4-fold match bet based on my thoughts above. 

 

Recommendations:

Hugo Houle - 0.21pts each-way at 150/1 (take 66/1 with Ladbrokes) 

Manuel Quinziato - 0.5pts each-way at 9/1 with Bet365 

 

Match Bets

Quinziato to beat Kragh Anderson, Gretsche to beat Gaudin, Van Emden to beat Boom, Houle to beat Eaton - the four-fold pays 3.6/1 - 2pts win with Bet365

 

 

Route Map

 

  

Stage 4 

Stage 4 - Al Zubarah Fort to Madinat Al Shamal

Thursday February 11th, 189km

Well that TT provided a lot more drama and excitement than I, or I think anyone expected really! It started with my man Houle doing a good TT early on to go 2nd, gave us a little excitement for a while. But one by one the times just started getting better and better. When Jos Van Emden crossed the line 18" faster than the previous best time set by Lieuwe Westra, well we all must have thought that was that, the 6/4 favourite had it in the bag. Quinziato did a great time to take 2nd behind Van Emden and a podium spot looked on.

But then a shot of Eddie B just after the intermediate split showed that he was already 13" up on Van Emden and it was clear he was on a monster ride. But to win the TT by 25" was simply sensational. That time would have put him 37" ahead of Terpstra's time from last year and 1" faster than Hepburn's time of 2014, a stunning result. It also meant that he has more or less sewn up the GC as he leads now by 26" from his team-mate Cavendish, who also did a sensational time to finish 7th, 14" faster than Kristoff, something I did not see happening.

Quinziato now sits in 3rd place, just to wind me up that I should have backed him at 40/1 each way, but he's just 2" ahead of Van Avermaet who did an excellent TT, finishing only 3" off a top 3 spot. So the BMC boys are sure to try everything they can in the next two stages to overthrow Dimension Data.

So, I hope I put some of you off backing Van Emden, Sergent, Westra, Boom and Andersen, I leaned towards EBH but didn't want to commit at that price.. I really didn't expect that! Kragh Andersen did a superb ride though to finish 9th, as did Jordan Kerby to finish in 8th, having led the race for a while. There were also great rides by Gruzdev, Politt and Bystrom, and even Sam Bennett pulled off the TT of his life to finish 22nd, to move him in to 8th place, with 7th within reach if he can snag 5 bonus seconds in the last two stages. Quinziato landed the each-way money, but Gretsche bust the match-bet acca by losing to his team-mate Gaudin.

On to Stage 4 then, the penultiate stage before the criterium-like stage of the final day around Doha. Another flat stage that will almost certainly end in a sprint finish, but the wind could also play a part as they head inland and then back out to the coast again before finishing on four laps of a finishing circuit around Madinat Al Shamal.
This is almost an exact replica of stage 5 last year, but 36kms less, as they do a loop out almost to the east coast and four circuits around Madinat Al Shawal instead of two last year.

Last year, Alexander Kristoff won the sprint from Sagan and Nik Arndt of Giant-Alpecin, on a stage that saw Lars Boom disqualified. The race was once again blown apart in the wind with only 33 riders finishing in the sprint group and many riders losing minutes. It was a real power sprint out of Kristoff, he took it up early and it looked like he would be picked off by Sagan but he held on by inches. A bit reminiscent of his win in stage 2 versus Cavendish.

 

Stage 1 and 2 could not have been more different from Alexander Kristoff's point of view. On Stage 1 he was fed the stage on a plate and he just couldn't sprint fast enough at the finish to even finish in the top 3. It looked ominous for him and his GC chances, but then Katusha kicked in to action on stage 2 and did everything they could to drag him back in to the race on the day they got their laughable verdict on the potential suspension case. First, they split the peloton very early on with Cavendish left behind, so Kristoff picked up 3 bonus seconds at the intermediate.

They were reeled in eventually but as the sprint started to get up to warp speed in the last 800m they did whatever was necessary to keep Kristoff in a prime position. First, Greg Van Avermaet tried to come up and get on the wheels of the first Katusha men, but was violently shoved right by one of Kristoff's bouncers. Almost at the exact same time, another Katusha rider was headbutting Edvald Boassen Hagen as he had the temerity to try to stay near the front on the inside in an effort to lead out Cavendish.

All's fair in love and war, as they say, or in this case sprinting and war, but it showed just how determined they were to get a result on the day - nothing was going to get in their way. Seconds later, some riders got caught out by the split in the road and the crash happened. I'm not saying Katusha were entirely to blame for it, but those two actions in quick succession would have caused some riders to lose concentration or maybe take evasive action when the ripple came back through the group. In the end, Kristoff went in to beast mode and held off Cavendish by a few inches, it looked far closer on the first flash past the line.

Cavendish on the other hand looked to be struggling a little on stage 1 but then popped up and zoomed past the others at the finish. In stage 2, I commented that Cav was riding out in the wind near the front as they were around the 10km to go mark. He was riding 2nd wheel when there seemed to be no need to, some argued with me that he was just looking at testing his condition and pushing himself.. Maybe now in hindsight they knew that EBH was absolutely on fire and he was just looking after him ahead of the TT?! Either way, maybe that stint in the wind stunted his sprint a little as he just lost out to Kristoff. Kristoff also stuck well to the barriers on his left, forcing Cav to come out in to the cross/head-wind that was coming from their right and sheltered him a little. Small margins..

So looking at the betting, it's pretty much as you'd expect it - a 'pick-em' market with Paddy Power, 15/8 Cavendish, 2/1 Kristoff. Bet365 are a bit more in the Cav camp, going 6/4 with AK at 5/2. The situation is clouded a little bit more now with EBH in the leader's jersey - will they be concentrating on looking after him or looking to make sure Cav wins the sprint? The GC is more important, but I fully expect Katusha and BMC to be heavily on the offensive tomorrow looking to blow things apart like last year. Unfortunately for them the wind isn't going to be as strong this year as last, but there should still be opportunities out on the course to try something. It's possible that if things get really wild Cavendish could be dropped while EBH fights to stay out front.. unlikely, but possible.

It may mean though that Cav might be left with maybe just Mark Renshaw and one or two others to try to lead him out and he may have to try to hitch-hike on the Katusha train which looks much stronger and more dangerous. It's going to be a real battle, but you'd expect them to be 1-2, but hard to know in what order.

Sam Bennett - do we give him another chance? He is clearly very strong - he has made all the breaks so far, has been up there in the sprints, and did a phenomenal time trial today to show that he has serious power in the legs at the moment. But they need to sort their leadout out.. They look confused and messy and have made a real mess of the two leadouts they have tried so far. They seem to come there strongly with 3-4kms to go, the line of red helmets clearly visible, but then it all goes pear-shaped and they couldn't hold decent positions as the Katusha's and Dimension Datas etc come and swamp the front. This could be a more traditional type of sprint finish though if it does mostly stay together (hopefully no roads that split with 700m to go) and maybe they will get it right this time.

Bora-Argon may have messed up their sprints so far, but they still probably have better leadouts and better chances of putting Bennett in with a shot at the podium than Lampre-Merida for Modolo and Astana for Guardini. Both seem to be sprinting well but look like they are being left to their own devices in the last kilometre, it could be the same again tomorrow and I can't trust either of them.

Do we give Moreno Hofland another chance? Lotto-Jumbo were much more prominent on stage 2, getting men in the break (including Hofland) and were there in numbers as they hit the last 5kms. Like Bora-Argon though they seemed to screw it up just when it mattered most and were caught too far back when the crash happened. Although he had to come to an emergency stop more or less, Hofland didn't come down in the crash. Van Emden, Teunissen and Wynants rode good TTs today and even Hofland was in 33rd position. And now that the TT is out of the way, it's all for Hofland in the sprint now in an effort to make up for the disappointment of JVE losing out on the TT stage.

Roy Jans took 3rd on stage 2, but I can't see that happening again, he was the beneficiary of the crash aftermath I think. Greg Van Avermaet needs time to try to take a podium spot, but I can't see him sprinting to a podium spot unless there is a small group light on sprinters that come to the finish. Palini, Drucker, Kump, Andersen, they could all go well too, but it's likely to come down to a duel between the two best sprinters here, with a scrap for 3rd spot. At the prices, I'd rather be on Kristoff at 5/2 to power to another sprint win. Hofland at the price is worth another shot I think, I'll be kicking myself if he gets a result and I'm not on..

 

Recommendations:

1pt win on Alexander Kristoff at 5/2 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts each-way on Moreno Hofland at 25/1 with Paddy Power

 

Matchbets

Andrea Palini to beat Roy Jans and Haddi to beat Van Speybroeck - 1.5pts at 6/4 with 365

 

Route Map

 

Stage 5 

Stage 5 - Sealine Beach Resort to Doha Corniche

Friday February 12th, 114km

You can never try to out-guess this race. Edvald Boasson Hagen was 1/6 this morning to win the overall race, and it looked like it would take an incident or an accident to stop him.. But with just 10kms to go in the stage, and with his odds probably now about 1/20 to win the overall if there was in-play betting, we suddenly see him pull to the side of the road with a puncture. Cue the chaos as after a relatively quick change he is once again diving to the side of the road as there was a problem with his bike, or the spare wheel he had just recieved. He got a bike from a team-mate, Reguigui, but seeing as EBHis a giant of a man and 13cm taller than Reguigui, the bike was way too small for him. Try as he might to haul the chasing group he was in back to the leaders, he was never going to be able to catch a Katusha/BMC/Lotto driven peloton who were in search of stage victory. 

So he lost the lead to his team-mate Cavendish, who had managed to stay with the leaders. But Cavendish leads Van Avermaet by just 2", with Quinziato 6" back and Kristoff just 9" back. Alexander Kristoff landed the odds for us and did what I thought he might, out-boss and out-gun Cav and the DD boys at the finish, but it was because Cav had no team-mates with him, they were all looking after EBH. It now means that if Kristoff wins the final stage tomorrow and Cav finshes outside the top 3, Kristoff wins the overall. Here's hoping.. He's 4/1 to do it with Bet365.

But what can you say about Lotto-Jumbo and the total balls-up they made of that stage? They had seven men in the front group and looking in control in the last 10kms. They upped the pace, forced another split to reduce the numbers even further but when it came to the last kilometre they were a total and utter shambles.

They fell apart and came in in ones and twos, with Hofland taking 9th. Very, very disappointing as I was pretty confident with 4kms to go that they would at least put him in contention in the sprint. Greg Van Avermaet was awesome to sit on Kristoff's wheel and he nearly came around him for the win, he now sits in 2nd place on the GC. Sam Bennett also showed again what great shape he is in, just missing out again on a podium spot, as the  leaders stretched with 100m to go he was just caught a little far back, but hey, there was daylight after him, there were only 6 riders had made the split, two Katusha's, two BMC's Bennett and Cavendish. Bennett took Cavendish on the run to the line, but couldn't catch Guarnieri who was immensely powerful in leading out Kristoff. 

So that's three of the last three hot favourites turned over now in the last three stages, with Cavendish (evens), Van Emden (11/8) and Cavendish (15/8) all being beaten. It's been a wild few days in terms of results of stages and GC changes, and it may not be over yet!

This is almost the same stage as last year again, with the distance being just 1km longer, but they are doing 10 laps of a finishing circuit around Doha instead of going on a little loop north of the city and doing 6 laps of the final circuit last year. With the likes of Van Avermaet and Quinziato looking to splt the field to try to gain back time, the 10 final laps around the city isn't such great news. It is harder to try to split the field in a closing circuit than out on the open road. It's not impossible though, last year there were 59 riders in the front group, but due to a gap down the field the next group were 8" down, then a group at 12" and then ones and twos at varying time gaps up to over four minutes. 

Sam Bennett announced himself to the big time on this stage last year, as he pulled off a fantastic sprint to beat Bouhanni and Guardini, while Kristoff got lost and finished way down in 19th place. It'll probably end in a sprint again this year and it will be interesting to see if Bennett can finally get off the mark after a few disappointing stages. 

So once again we are faced with what should on paper be a showdown between Katusha and Dimension Data, Kristoff Vs Cav. Cavendish is 11/8, 6/4, 13/8 depending on who you bet with, Kristoff is 7/4 or 2/1. But who knows what can happen.. Kristoff was in a similar position last year where he could have won the stage on the final day but finished way down in 17th place. I can't see that happening here, his team look far too strong for that this year. It was a really messy sprint last year and it looked like Astana had done enough to land the stage for Guardini, but Bennett surfed the wheels brilliantly and made a dive from right to left with about 400m to go when the Astana train came through that basically won him the race. 

Kristoff looks strong again, he looks like he is really starting to motor, whereas Cav looked to be fading again today in the last 200m. But Cav only needs to finish in the top 3 to win overall and that might be in his mind when things get messy - for example, why stay with Kristoff, trying to scrap it out with him when maybe Dimension Data could take their train down the other side of the road and just make sure Cav finishes in the top 3? He could be picked off late on if he tries to take on Kristoff and the Katusha boys. 

Bennett should be starting to feel more and more confident despite his 4th places and his crash. He is making all the splits, he is going with the race deciding splits like at the finish today. He is beating Cavendish to 4th place. He won this stage last year. I wasn't keen on backing him today, but I am tempted to dip my toe in again tomorrow. His best leadout man, Shane Archbold just doesn't seem to be in great shape though at the moment, he finished in the Eddie B group today after getting caught out by the splits again. If he can stay towards the front and is produced for just the last kilometre tomorrow, he might repeat last year's win. 

Guardini continues to disappoint for me, not interested in backing him at 10/1 until I see some progress. Modolo was the sole Lampre rider to make the final selection today but he too ran out of gas in the last kilometre and finished 14th in the end. And that's his problem, his team are light and he looks like he's starting to fade too.

It's not often you see Greg Van Avermaet fifth favourite for a flat sprint stage, but the way he is riding I'd nearly rather be on him than the likes of Guardini, Modolo, Jans, Hutarovich or Palini. He looks very strong and I think he will have a great year this year. I really can't see anybody else getting involved though, it's unlikely we'll see a break stay away, it may even be that they reel them in early and the sprinters will be competing for the two intermediate sprints bonus seconds. As for Hofland, I've given up on him, Lotto-Jumbo are just incapable of putting him in with a chance of winning and he doesn't look to be fast enough to do it for himself.

Again, it looks like a coin toss, but I'm going to side with Kristoff again as I think he is looking more powerful and the Katusha sprint train just look better than all the others. I am also going to go back in for Sam Bennett, I think he will get a better shot at the sprint tomorrow and should be challenging for a podium spot. 

 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Alexander Kristoff at 2/1 with Ladbrokes

0.5pts each-way on Sam Bennett at 8/1 with Ladbrokes 

 

Matchbets

Modolo to beat Hofland and Bennett to beat Guardini - 2pts on the double at 1.4/1 with Bet365

 

Route Map