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Published on Friday, 02 August 2013 23:12

Tour of Poland Stage 7: 

Tarnów to Katowice - 231.5km

Darwin Atapuma won a hectic day in the Tour of Poland as breakaway after breakaway tried to get away and win a lumpy stage made for a rider like Atapuma. I thought Henao would be the man for the stage but it was his fellow Colombian Atapuma who got revenge for being bullied out of the break on stage 6.

For a while I got a bit excited as Santaromita, one of my picks at 50/1 was in a break of 9 that built up a lead of over 1'30". That break was pulled back though and eventually Atapuma attacked and got clear but was joined by Riblon inside the final 2kms. As Riblon was fighting for GC time Atapuma left him do all the work and then nipped away with 500m to go to win team Colombia's first race of the year.

Henao finished in the group just 22" back in 8th place, with my other picks Santaromita in 8th and Pozzovivo in 17th place. Riblon's efforts paid off though as he moved in to the yellow jersey with just one stage to go. He is now the 4/9 favourite to win the overall. One interesting point to note about today's stage is that many have decided to pack their bags before the final time trial, with no fewer than 16 not finishing the stage and Morajko got himself DQ'ed for some reason...

 Stage 7 Profile 

Stage 7 is a 37km Individual Time Trial from Wielickza to Kraków. The rolling profile makes it tough at the start for the true Time Triallists but the last 22km are mostly downhill so it should make for a very fast run in. 

The bookies have priced it up as a 4-horse race basically, with Wiggins the hot favourite, followed by Cancellara, Phinney and Kangert. 

Ordinarily I would be all over the 5/4 on offer for Wiggins to win a time trial like this. But there are as many doubts and questions about Wiggins as there is about Cancellara! Neither of them have covered themselves in glory in the TDP with Wiggins losing time hand over fist every day nearly. Cancellara has also been anonymous and his form has to be questioned before you can back him at 4 or even 3/1. 

So with Wiggins and Cancellara questionable favourites, then the next in line looks a far better option to me - Taylor Phinney at 6/1 is a far, far better bet and I think will be a very likely top 3 finisher. He has been riding very powerfully this week, capped off by his stunning stage win when he displayed outrageous power for the final 8kms.

Unfortunately the bookies are once again displaying dreadful value and choice with only Paddy Power offering each way betting and even then they are only paying out 1/3 the odds for the first 2!! 2??? In a time trial of over 110 runners?! Appalling service, but it just shows, most bookies don't really know what they are doing with cycling and try to avoid laying any decent bets. 

Maybe BetVictor or someone else might open up with better prices and each way terms tomorrow, but in the meantime I would rather be a layer of Wiggins at 5/4 and a backer of Phinney at 6/1, but the fact Paddy Power are only paying 1st two each way makes me a little reluctant for now. I do think though that one of Wiggins or Cancellara are in for a 5th or 6th place kind of ride, which would probably leave Phinney still a likely top 2.

Kangert is a superb time trialist too but I don't think he is as good value at the same price as Phinney so I am not backing him. It is 25/1 Nibali but I am not interested in that with Nibali's TDP so far, I would be further up the GC than him at this stage. It's 40/1 bar those  but only LL Sanchez at a big 150/1 remotely interests me. A top timetriallist too, he will be eager I think to make a mark on this last stage. 

So it is a bit of a conundrum then tomorrow's stage, will Wiggins show the form that should see him stroll it? Will Cancellara put in a big ride despite his anonymous tour so far? Can Phinney sustain his massive 10m power he displayed Wednesday for 37km? Can anyone else muscle in?

My recommendation is a small e/w bet on Phinney at 6/1 and I will update tomorrow if any price changes appeal or if I see match bets that interest me also.