Tour of Poland Stage 5: 

Nowy Targ to Zakopane, 160.5kms

The headline maker of the day was of course Taylor Phinney, who stormed to a stunning victory in the 4th Stage of the Tour of Poland. He jumped with 7km to go after getting the go-ahead from Baldato in the team car, and hung on by the skin of his teeth on the line.

It was a stunning piece of riding by the very popular American - Baldato was screaming at him apparently in his ear-piece to treat it like a prologue and go full gas and not look back. Phinney generated massive power, and aided by a downhill last kilometer stayed in front of the marauding pack. Phinney is a favourite rider of mine, having met him after the Olympics TT in Hampton Court last year. My son waited about an hour for him to come, we met Davis Phinney and his mom, and then Taylor appeared and dashed past us with his large suitcase. I asked was there any chance of a photo with the boy and he smiled and said 'of course, no problem'. He then said 'nice bike dude' to my 8yr old which made his day. A top guy and something my son will never forget. That's what I love about cycling. 

The other big news on the day was of course another winning cycling betting tip selection for me, albeit for the place money, as Steele Van Hoff justified my faith in him and 'won' the bunch sprint for 2nd. At 9/1 each way as recommended that bet would have paid 2.25/1 on the place stake. Unfortunately Renshaw was way back in 20th place, will have to scour the stories later to figure out what happened to him. Hopefully some of you who had maybe thought of backing Hushovd steered clear, his chance was blown when Phinney went up the road (or maybe he wasn't feeling 100% anyway and that was why Phinney was let go?). Hutarovich pulled off a far better result today to take 3rd, might be one to keep onside for the next sprint now.

Stage 5 Profile

If the stages so far have been pretty hard to call, then tomorrow's is nearly impossible!! A jagged, lumpy profile which takes in two laps of a 40.5km course after 80km sees the riders climb a Cat I climb of the Glodowka twice before a 10km run up a Cat II climb to the finish. They are ranked as Is and IIs but they really don't look all that tough compared to proper Cat I and II climbs! It looks like a day made for breakaways, but will it be one for the rank outsiders to give it a go or will we see some of the GC boys attacking early and trying gain time?

Bet365 are once again the only bookie offering odds on the stage at the moment, showing just how hard it is to price up a stage like this. They have installed Henao as the 4/1 favourite, followed by Ulissi at 15/2 and Majka and LL Sanchez at 9/1. 

Ulissi of course won Stage 1, outsprinting his breakaway rivals at the finish. But then he went and lost 29 minutes the very next day. Depending on his recovery rate over the last three days, he could well be right up there again tomorrow, but I think that if you lose 29 minutes on a stage like Sunday's then I want to swerve him at just 15/2. Henao will be a marked man and I can't see him getting away on his own and would be outsprinted probably by most in the run to the line.. 

Sanchez is a little more interesting, and I would like to keep the faith with him even though he hasn't done so well for me so far in the TDP! As he is over 10 minutes down he is not a threat on GC anymore so may get in an early break that forms going over the first three climbs of the day in the first 60km. 9/1 is still very short though, would like something like 16/1 - maybe a few more bookies will price up the stage in the morning. 

Working down the list, Riblon is interesting at 28/1 but whether he has another stage like this still in his legs after his exploits of the last two weeks I'm not sure.. Tiralongo is a nice price at 40/1 - a dual stage winner in the Giro, the diminutive Italian (5'6", 56kgs!) has had a poor year by his standards with no top 10 places at all this year. At 36 he is getting on, but he may well get involved tomorrow in a stage that would suit him and surely he is needing to put in a big performance soon.. 

Thor Hushovd is one I am thinking a lot about too - he rode in with Phinney and Pinotti in the Autobus on Stage 1 and 2 but obviously now those guys had bigger plans than killing themselves on the opening stages. With two superb stages under their belts now, confidence will be sky high and we may see Hushovd put in a big ride tomorrow. The climbs aren't that tough (averaging around 4 or 5% for 6 or 8kms, and he may hang in there - he didn't have to work very hard today after all as Phinney shot off the front. If it comes to the finish with a reduced peloton then watch out for the God of Thunder! His price again is a little bit skinny at 18/1 but if you can get 25/1 maybe or bigger tomorrow morning he may be an interesting runner tomorrow. 

So as I said from the outset, it is a very hard stage to call and any one of about 50 riders could win this stage. But if you are really looking for a bet on the Tour of Poland tomorrow, for small stakes, I recommend a little interest in Sanchez@ 16/1 or at least a bit bigger than 9/1, an little bet each way on Tiralongo at 40/1 and a small win only bet on Hushovd at 25/1 or bigger if possible (win only, as he is either there at the finish and wins, or he isn't there!)

Update: Incredibly by 1am Bet365 had cut Hushovd from 18/1 to 6/1 joint favourite now with Ben Swift, who had also been 17/1. Looks like they must be reading my blog/following me on twitter as I had a discussion with @caferoubaix about how the stage wasn't as difficult as it looks (a very similar route last year was won by Ben Swift..) Looks like they have caught up... Either that or some of you guys have steamed in to the 18/1 Hushovd and they are diving for cover! No value there any more now.