Who will win Stage 4 of the Tour of Poland

Details: Published on Tuesday, 30 July 2013 23:24

Tour of Poland Stage 4:

Tarnów to Katowice - 231.5km

Another day, another winner! Thor Hushovd stormed to a great win after sterling work from his BMC team-mates.

"A man of his experience and power should be able to bully his way in to a top 3 placing - he too has a pretty strong looking lead out with Matthias Frank, Phinney, Pinotti and Santaromito to help get him in the right spot."

And so it was - Phinney and Pinotti took some massive turns at the front to reel in the breakaway, who were more than 10 minutes up at one point. Belkin took it up in the last few kms but when it really mattered in the last kilometer Phinney once again set a furious pace to string it out and set up Hushovd who passed Renshaw in the last 100m. Ben Swift was disappointing in 9th, but so also was the favourite for the stage Hutarovich who I said avoid - he finished 8th.

Tomorrow is a similar stage and will also more than likely end in a sprint finish. The profile is nothing that will worry the sprinters, even with the little lump about half way through the stage. The course enters a final circuit of 12km which they do 4 times before the finish. I fully expect another sprint finish, the question is, will the same protagonists be involved or will there be a re-ordering tomorrow?!

Thor Hushovd has been installed as the favourite, but his price ranges from 5/2 to 9/2, with Mezgec 4/1 to 6/1 and Renshaw 5/1-6/1. Steele Van Hoff has suddenly appeared in the betting for tomorrow at 9/1 having finished a very impressive 2nd place today. Swift is 8/1, Howard 10/1 and Hutarovich is 8/1. Again though I want to swerve Hutarovich at that price and I think I will leave Swift as well too - his team is now missing Luke Rowe who had to go home with a stomach problem and the Sky 'leadout' today was pretty disorganised to say the least. Both Hutarovich and Swift seemed to throw in the towel when they knew they were not going to win today, rolling over for the last 50m or so. I know how that feels but it showed to me that they didn't have the legs to trouble the top 5. Mezgec never got in a blow, I will want to see some sign of form from him before I consider backing him I think.

Renshaw is one I want to have on-side tomorrow - I think he was a bit unlucky today and will have learned from it. When Phinney pulled off with about 250m to go Renshaw was forced to take up the sprint a little earlier than he probably wanted to and was passed by Hushovd in the last 100m. I think tomorrow he will look to get his team to protect him a little better and try to mug Hushovd instead. I think Hushovd will be there or thereabouts again but I'd rather back Renshaw each-way at 6/1 than Hushovd at 9/2.

I was impressed with Van Hoff and Garmin today - they clearly had faith in him as they did a lot of work towards the end and he was very clever and mature in the sprint to track Hushovd and was closing on him at the line. I think he will put in another big showing tomorrow and a little each way bet at 9/1 with Bet365 is recommended.