Stage 2

 

Stage 2

04.08.2014 | Toruń - Warszawa | 226 km

Stage one turned in to carnage with storms, hailstones, fallen trees, slippery roads and crashes galore. At one point the break almost came to a standstill as they tackled hurricane like winds and heavy hailstones, with the winds bringing down large and small trees, leaves, branches and caused more crashes. Then as they were on the finishing circuit, as they took a left hand bend all 5 members of the break went down! (right)

In the end, a really messy sprint saw a tiring Peter Velits from BMC, who had tried a late break, fall back in to the middle of the sprint which was in full flow and caused Mezgec to have to break hard and he ended up crashing in to the barriers and coming down. Yauheni Hutarovich was the surprise winner of the sprint from two more complete outsiders in Roman Maikin of RusVelo and Manuele Mori of Lampre-Merida. Hutarovich was around 50/1 I think but I doubt the 2nd and 3rd were even listed in the bookies odds they were such outsiders. 

The good news from the ante-post bets is that Davide Formolo is up for it and going well,  he sprinted to a 9th place finish. Add in the fact that Cataldo, Jungels and Aru all lost time he has been slashed to 10/1 3rd favourite. Aru had a nightmare, losing more than 10 minutes because of a crash. Majka is still 11/4 favourite with Weening 4/1 (from the 13/2 I backed him at).

On to stage two then and it's probably going to be more of the same with regards to how the stage will pan out. A long break gets pulled back inside the last 10kms and it ends up in another big sprint. 

It's a straight run along very flat terrain between Torun and Warsaw, but it is 226km long so it's going to be another long day in the saddle. As they arrive in to Warsaw they take in three laps of a 4.8km circuit which has lots of long straight sections, but with exactly 2km to go they take a left at a big roundabout and then they have a long straight of about 1.6kms. Then with just 400m to go they take a hard left turn and on to the short finishing straight. Positioning in to that last left hand bend is going to be crucial so the lead-out trains will have a real battle on their hands over that long straight in the last 2kms.  

There really isn't much to go on after today's result, it was a chaotic stage with a false result because of the conditions, so it's hard to predict how it's going to go tomorrow. Hutarovich showed today that he is in great shape though and the Belarusian Champion was very strong on the pull up to the line. Tomorrow's finish looks like it is uphill again so we could see him well to the fore once more. 

With Mezgec crashing today we'll have to wait for updates on any injuries or bruises to see what sort of chance he has tomorrow. In fact as I just wrote this I saw on Twitter that Giant-Shimano tweeted that he has come away with just bruising. I can't have faith in him though as he will be sore after that kind of spill, and also he looked beaten to me at the time, I don't think he'd have been able to get near the front guys he was coming from so far back. 

Other than that, I don't think you can put the sorts of guys like Maikin, Mori, Bovin and Haller in the top 5 again, you would think that unless the weather gods intervene again then the sprint result should be a little bit more normal! At 9pm though there are no prices out from any bookie so I am guessing they are having as tough a time trying to predict what will happen tomorrow as I am, so I think unless something jumps out at me in the prices when they do come out, it could be a 'no bet' day for me tomorrow. 

Prices have come out now from Paddies and Bet365 and there are lots of big discrepancies in the prices - for example Modolo - 8/1 and 4/1, Matthews - 23/1 and 9/1, Swift - 20/1 and 12/1 etc. Mezgec is the 4/1 favourite for the stage, but after crashing today (and several of his team-mates too), I'm not backing him at that price. Swift apparently hurt his shoulder in a crash today so I'm not touching him either tomorrow.

Belkin were all over the place today trying to set up Bos, and his team-mates seemed to be looking for him constantly on the run-in. It turns out that because of an incident he was at the back starting the final laps and it took him until the final lap to get back to the front and was too tired to sprint. Maybe they'll have better luck tomorrow. I'm really struggling to make a strong case for any of these, Matthews maybe is a big price at 22/1 but he lost over 7 minutes today. Modolo is still only coming back form illness so I'm not sure what sort of form he really is in, we didn't get a chance to look at him properly today as he crashed too. 

I picked Tyler Farrar for Stage 1 and he crashed (again!) today and didn't get a chance to sprint but maybe he is worth giving another try - there's nothing worse than picking someone one day and then he wins the next day when you leave him alone. 

Recommendations:

It's almost a day for a 'no-bet' but a small 0.5pts each-way on Farrar at 16/1 with Paddies might give us a return. 

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Stage 3

Stage 3

05.08.2014 | Kielce - Rzeszów | 174 km

Stage 2 was a bit chaotic once again as Petr Vakoc escaped from the break of the day after more than 200kms out front. The pack seemed to be oblivious to the fact that he was after crossing the line already as Michael Matthews celebrated the 'win' for second place. 

Some interesting pointers came out of today's stage though.. Matthews is clearly back in good form having won the sprint and is sure to go very close again tomorrow. Belkin have revealed that they are not interested in sprints and are there for Gesink's GC ambitions - Bos didn't sprint today and came 50th, their Sports Director Michiel Elijzen said this evening that they will not be contesting the sprint tomorrow - jump on that 11/10 for JJ Lobata to beat Theo Bos with Paddy Power! 

Marco Haller took another top 10 placing today with 7th but revealed after that he was 'not so fresh' after two long days. He may be down the placings again tomorrow if he's feeling it. Giant-Shimano changed sprinter today as Mezgac wasn't 100% after his crash, with Sinkeldam sprinting to 4th place... having said that, Mezgec still managed to sprint to 9th place on the day!

Stage 3 is another flat stage but this time at least it's 50kms less than the previous day at a much more pleasant 174kms. They have moved to the southern part of Poland for this one and although it's pretty flat it is not as flat as stage 2 with a number of rolling hills along the way. Once they get to the city of Rseszów they start on a finishing circuit again of 2 laps of a 6km loop.

There are a number of tight bends on the finishing circuit, with the two key ones to watch out for are firstly a sharp left with 1500m to go and then a sharp right with about 800m to go after a bit of a zig-zag chicane around the 1km to go mark. With just about 400m to go the road arcs around to the right and the finishing 'straight' is only about 300m long. Again, like on stage 2, positioning is going to be vital and a good lead-out train will make all the difference.  

To me, Matthews is a very strong favourite for tomorrow after that 'win' today - he is a top level sprinter among 2nd division scrappers. His injury was nasty but he has clearly recovered well and was by far the fastest at the finish today. The bookies can't split him and Mezgec, as they are both around 4/1, but to me as a match bet you have to side with Matthews because of Mezgec's crash and Matthews performance today. OGE has also said this afternoon that now that they know Matthews is in such good shape they will take more responsibility tomorrow and if it looks like being a sprint they will work to set Bling up. So at 4/1 I think he is worth backing, even if it's not a great price. 

There's one rider at a massive price that could be worth taking a chance on for fun is Fabio Silvestre of Trek Factory racing. The young neo-pro is Trek's sprinter for the week and although they didn't really go for it today he finished 12th. Trek have said they will take more of an interest tomorrow and that he will take his chance again - at 200/1 he could be a wildcard for a bit of fun tomorrow. There are a number of match bets that interest me based on the various news bits I mention above and the results to date.. Formolo finished well up again today, taking 17th place and I fancy him to be well up again tomorrow. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Michael Matthews at 4/1 with Bet365

4pts win on Lobato to beat Bos at 11/10 with Paddy Power (11:00 Hedged 1pt back with Bet365 at 7/4 this morning as per twitter tweet)

1pt win on Matthews to beat Hutarovich at 8/11 with Bet365

0.5pt on Formolo to beat Gasparotto at 6/5

0.5pt win on Vallée to beat Boivin at 4/6

1pt on Silvestre to beat Stepniak at 8/13

1pt win on an acca with Matthews, Lobato, Formolo, Vallée and Silvestre at 15.5/1 with Bet365

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Stage 4

Stage 4

06.08.2014 | Tarnów Gemini Park - Katowice | 236 km 

Well that sucked big time. Bos, who was supposed to not be sprinting today wins, busting the match bet gamble. Their boss said that he wasn't going to sprint. Their PR man said that he wasn't in good enough form to compete. He says in an interview after the stage that he was supposed to be leading out Barry Markus who was supposed to sprint today but when he went looking for him, he was nowhere to be seen. Add to that the fact that Lobato crashed in to the last kilometre and it added up to a disaster. Sorry to those of you who followed me in, that was just the worst possible outcome.  

And just about sums up this race and my last few days - it is chaotic, no one is able to control it, there are crashes galore and you have no clue who is going to go for it from one day to the next. So much so that I am not going to bother trying to predict what is going to happen tomorrow.. Luca Mezgec came close today but apparently he couldn't get in to his 11 tooth cog as someone had hit his derailleur in the crash, so expect him to do better tomorrow. Matthews was trapped in by Bos expertly today and didn't have the track skills of Bos to negotiate that tricky finish. Hushovd and Farrar got closer today taking 5th and 6th place so that shows you how crazy this race has become!

And anyway, at 10pm there isn't any bookie with prices out, not even Bet365 who are always the first out. Time to take a day off tomorrow. Here's the course preview for those of you who want to have a go..

Stage 4 is another flat run from Tarnów to Katowice but again it's over a massive 236kms as they head west. It is a little bit more lumpy than the previous stages though with an uncategorised col to get over after about 100kms and then a small Cat 3 climb they go over twice on the finishing circuit.

The finishing circuit this time is 4 laps of a 12.3kms and again there are a number of tricky bends to negotiate, not least the large roundabout that they loop around and double back on themselves with just 1km to go. That final kilometre is dead straight and slightly downhill, which should make for a very fast finish.

I can't see it being anything other than a sprint finish again but it really could be any one of Mezgec, Mathews, Bos, Hutarovich, Swift, Vallée, Modolo, Hushovd, Farrar or Ferrari.... 

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Stage 5

Stage 5

Things get serious now after four stages on the flat as they head in to the hills for the first real shake-up in the GC. It's a long-ish stage at 190kms that loops in a horse shoe shape that heads west and then back east and in to Slovakia. There are five climbs in total to get over on this stage including a Cat III, a Cat II and three times up the Cat I climb to Štrbské Pleso. 

The first 45kms are downhill to the foot of the first climb of the day, a 22km drag up to the Cat II climb at Huty which is followed by a 12kms descent down to the valley and the shores of Liptovska Mara. They follow the river Vah for a while before starting the climb up to the finishing circuit around Štrbské Pleso. The 10km Cat I climb is climbed three times in total as they take in 2 laps of a 25.4kms circuit, the first two times they don't quite go all the way to the top but the third time up they carry on for a further 1.5kms to the finish. 

The climb averages around 4.3% for the 12kms but once they go towards the finish and the last 1.5kms it steepens up to 6.2% average, with a section at 16% just 200m from the line. 

There are really only two chances in this race for the climbers to take any time from the time triallists and as stage 6 isn't that likely to create big time gaps this is going to be a hotly contested finish amongst those with GC ambitions. The climb up to the final 1.5kms isn't that tough with averages only around 4-5% so we should expect to possibly see a good sized group come to the last few kilometres together and it will be a big charge to the line for the last kilometre.  

Rafal Majka is the favourite for the stage at 10/3 but coming off of a hard Tour that looks a bit short to me. He may well be one of the best climbers here and he did excellent in the last week of the TDF but he had to dig deep at times and may well suffer a bit of a come-down after it. He will be very closely marked tomorrow and will not be given much lee-way. 

Julian Arredondo is second favourite and although the Team are claiming he is ready for the mountains I have doubts about his fitness. He has had a disaster so far and is out of the GC reckoning as he is already over 10 minutes down, losing another minute and a half today. He hasn't raced since the Giro over two months ago and may be a bit rusty on the climbs, especially against those who are carrying good fitness in to the race. At 9/2 I think I'll leave him too. 

Fabio Aru will be fancied for tomorrow's stage too following his superb showing in the Giro. He climbed well and more importantly, started the race well with a number of top 20 finishes inside the first 9 stages. One of those finishes was to stage 9 where he finished 12th, finishing with the main group 1'08" behind Weening. On stage 8 to Montecopiolo he finished 9th on a similar sort of stage to tomorrow's, but lost some time in the run in to the likes of Uran, Evans and Quintana. I think it could be similar tomorrow, he should be top 10 but could find a few too fast for him. 

There could be any number of ways that this could be won, including a long breakaway (but won't even think about trying to name them..), It could come down to a late solo attack like Riblon last year or Weening in the Giro or it could come down to a small group sprint among the GC favourites and mountain goats.

If it does come down to a strong man's grinding finish the likes of Velits, Preidler, Poels and Gesink should be close. If it comes to late attacks, look out for Davide Formolo - he has carried some good form in to this race and has looked sharp, staying near the front and out of trouble. He was 2nd in the GP Industria & Artigianato recently, just beaten in a sprint by Adam Yates, but after a battle up a tough climb before a fast descent to the finish. He was also the only one able to stay with Nibali in the Italian Nationals, taking 2nd place behind him with a very impressive ride on a tough rolling course. If he can carry that sort of form in here he is sure to go close - at 16/1 he is tempting, but as I have him at 66/1 for the overall I am reluctant to 'double up' on him tomorrow. Still, I think he could be worth a small e/w just in case. 

A team-mate of his, Damiano Caruso could be a dark horse tomorrow for this. They could play the 1-2 with Formolo attacking with a few kms to go and if he is reeled back Caruso has a go - he will not be marked as closely as the other GC contenders and could be let get a gap. He's in good form too - 5th, not far behind Formolo in the Nationals, he took 3rd in the GC at the Tour of Austria after three top 4 finishes, including an impressive 2nd place behind Dayer Quintana (Nairo's younger brother) on the tough climb up to the Kitzbuheler Horn, a HC finish. That sort of form makes him interesting to me at 33/1 with Paddy Power. He is bigger with BetVictor, but don't bet with them, they are a typical cowardly bookmaker who shuts you down if you try to be 'clever' with them. Take a small e/w bet at 33/1 with Paddies instead. 

It will be interesting to see too how Warren Barguil fares, we haven't see much at all out of him at all this year. And what about Michael Matthews? Could he hang in there and sprint to victory at the end? It's possible as there are no major engines like Froome, Contador, Nibali or Quintana to rip things to pieces, but I think he might find it a bit tough. Samuel Sanchez has yet to really find his feet at BMC, he hasn't really come close to winning a race since he joined them. It will be interesting to see if he finds some form ahead of the Vuelta. Niemiec, Izaguirre, Cataldo, Henao, Deignan and Hesjedal are others to watch tomorrow on what could be a fascinating battle. Deignan in particular interests me again as he has been named on the provisional squad for the Vuelta and will surely be out to try to impress and get selected, this is probably his best chance of a good result in the TDP. This sort of climb suits him well and he was in great form earlier in the year. At 66/1 he was worth an e/w punt.

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Davide Formolo at 16/1 with Paddy Power

0.5pts each-way on Damiano Caruso at 33/1 with Paddy Power

0.3pts each-way on Philip Deignan at 66/1 with Bet365

 

Deignan to beat Henao (8/13), Weening to beat G Caruso (2/5) and Velits to beat Riblon (4/9) - 1pt treble - pays 9/4 with Bet365. 

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Stage 6

Stage 6

A small loss on today's stage as the 9/4 on the match bet treble almost made up for the loss on the stage winner picks. Davide Formolo came closest for us in 7th place, not far behind the winner Majka, but just didn't have the kick of the Pole in the final 200m. Majka was impressive though, clearly has carried great legs in to the race. It was a funny finish though as it turned in to a grinding, slog sprint as I thought it might with quite a lot in contention coming to the last kilometre. Arredondo couldn't handle the sprint at the finish, but Pieter Weening tried to get away in the closing stages, showing his legs are good, as even though he was caught he finished in 14th place. Warren Barguil and Samuel Sanchez impressed, taking 5th and 6th place on the stage. 

Movistar blew it today as they had about 5 guys in contention at the 1km to go mark, but as they couldn't organise themselves to try to engineer a win they finished in 2nd, 3rd, 9th and 15th. Philip Deignan was unlucky in that he slipped and fell with about 25kms to go and had to get up and chase back on, he finished in 31st, just 17" down. The most significant thing though was that there were no time gaps between the main GC men today, on a stage where some time gaps might have been expected, so it's still all to play for with only 11" seperating the first 19 on the GC! 

Stage 6 is a tough stage though - it is up and down all day with hardly a flat piece of road on the whole 174kms of the race. It's a set of two loops, with the first part of the race heading to that loop in the south west corner of 5.3kms which they do 3 times, on two of the passages there are intermediate sprints at Zakopane. After 25kms or so they head on to the main circuit of the race, with 4 laps of a 38.4km circuit. On the circuit it is just climb after descent after climb after descent - they crest the climbs of Zab, Sciana Bukovina and Bukowina Tatrzanska four times in all.

The final climb to Bukowina Tatrzanska is only about 4kms long but from the 3km to go to the 2km to go mark it's quite steep, averaging 8.1%, hitting a max of 11.5%, but then it eases back to an average around 3.2% for the last 2kms. You will need to be able to sprint after hanging in there with the better climbers on the earlier part of the final climb so it could be won by a puncheur with a good sprint, or else by a longer breakaway from someone riding solo or in a small break.

After his finishing kick today you'd have to fancy Majka to take his second stage in as many days. He looked strong at the finish today, biding his time and then moving powerfully in to the front 10 with 1km to go. Tinkoff-Saxo looked strong at the business end of the stage too with Sutherland in particular putting in a big shift. But 11/8? That's very short. Anything could happen again tomorrow - maybe Movistar's director sportif will have a quite word with his riders who completely screwed up today's stage. They looked like they were rowing with each other and attacking each other inside that last kilometre, there was no plan, no cohesion and no team loyalty - it looked like every man for himself. If they can sort it out tomorrow and maybe Intxausti leads out Izagirre (or vice-versa) then they may be able to turn the tables on Majka. The problem is picking which one though as they are 16/1 and 18/1... 

Arredondo is 2nd favourite for the stage at 6/1 and I've no interest in that. He will not outsprint the guys who all finished ahead of him today and the climb isn't steep enough or long enough for him to get away from them. Warren Barguil did well today taking 5th place behind Brambilla and those two could be in the top 6 again tomorrow. Barguil had no match for Majka's burst though and I think he could be outsprinted again tomorrow. On this stage last year he finished 50" behind the likes of Majka, Weening and Izagirre.

There's very little actually appeals tomorrow, Samuel Sanchez did rather well at the finish today, coming from a long way back with a grinder of a sprint to take 5th place on the stage, and he could improve on that on a finish he should like tomorrow. But at just 18/1 I don't know if I want to trust him seeing as he hasn't won a race in so long, and he looked held today, he was never going to beat Majka. 

One that offers a little bit of interest to me though is Przemyslaw Niemiec who finished 10th on today's stage. 4th on this stage in 2011, 5th in 2012 the Lampre-Merida Pole will be looking for some glory of his own after Majka took it today. He can climb well, knows these roads very well and has a good grinder sprint on him among small groups. If he can get to the finish with a small break he could well take a top 3 placing, maybe even the stage. 

Nothing else really appeals to me, still happy with my two positions on Weening and Formolo going in to tomorrow and the TT, Weening looked very strong today, pulling at the front for a while and then attacking hard, but also having the strength and conditioning to hang in with the leaders instead of going out the back door once caught as can often happen. Formolo is still showing himself in all the right places, at the front and out of trouble. Both will need to make a little time tomorrow if they can, if not, it's all down to the TT on Saturday. 

Recommendation

0.75pts each-way on Przemyslaw Niemiec at 22/1 with Bet365

 

1pt on Formolo to beat Barguil at 5/6 with Bet365

3.5pts on Majka to beat Arredondo at 2/7 with Bet365

 

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Stage 7

Stage 7

The final stage then and unless something special happened in the finish of stage 6 it looks like the race is coming down to a head-to-head TT battle among up to 30 riders! I may not be able to add an update Friday night so I will give my thoughts here and try to update with a selection or two if I can either late Friday night or Saturday morning. 

The course is a flat out and back from Krakow over a 25km course, heading south-east for the first 12.6kms and then back north-west for the remaing 12.4kms. The forecast is for a very hot day with almost no wind so it doesn't look like the conditions are really going to affect any of the starters whether early or late. 

Favourites for the stage will be the likes of Malori of Movistar, Vandewalle of Trek Factory Racing, Siutsou of Sky, Poels of OPQS, Weening of OGE, Velits of BMC, Izagirre of Movistar and possibly Cattaneo of Lampre-Merida. But there are going to be two battles going on of course, for the stage and for the GC. I think Malori will have a great chance of winning this but Vandewalle could be a dark horse for this stage. Winner of the ITT over 24kms in the Tour of Austria, beating the likes of Sergent, Jungels and Siutsou, the Belgian national TT champion should like this course and should be capable of a top 3 at least.

I think Majka could find a few too fast for him in the TT and so I am not interested in him for the GC. Weening could well put in a big TT (I'm hoping so anyway) as could Izagirre and Intxausti, but so too could Velits or Formolo! It really is a conundrum and I'll try to have a go at figuring it out before they start on Saturday! 

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