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- Published on Monday, 13 February 2017 15:53
Tour of Oman 2017
February 14th to 19th
In the last few years the Tour of Oman has been the final part in the middle-eastern desert trilogy. That isn't the case this year of course, as the Tour of Qatar disappeared from the race calendar, leaving a gap between Dubai and Oman.
This is the sixth running of the Tour of Oman, and every edition has been won more or less on Green Mountain. Vincenzo Nibali ('16), Rafael Valls ('15), Chris Froome ('14 & '13) and Peter Velits ('12) all have either won or finished 2nd on Green Mountain, with the 2010 edition the only time that they have not finished with a stage there, when Fabian Cancellara took the overall win, courtesy of the time trial.
Vincenzo Nibali defied his own utterances that he wasn't 100% last year, landing the odds at 5/1, thanks to a power show on Green Mountain, chasing down Romain Bardet's attack from the reduced group they were with in the last kilometre and overpowering him in the last 100m. They left Jacob Fuglsang and Tom Dumoulin behind, but they were good enough to secure 3rd and 4th in the GC. Seven of the top ten on Green Mountain finished in the top ten in the GC, showing again the importance of a good showing on this stage.
When they finished on GM in 2014, Chris Froome had bemoaned the fact that the stage hadn't actually finished at the top of the climb. Well, they took his feedback on board last year and added nearly two kilometres to the climb, finishing at 1435m, Strangely though they seem to have reverted back to the shorter version of the climb this year, cutting 2kms off the final climb to make it 5.7kms at 10.5%..
The race had been growing in popularity in recent years but it looks to be a pretty disappointing lineup this year, with no Nibali, Froome, Contador, Quintana, Dumoulin or any of the top real top GC riders.. But we do have last year's runner-up Romain Bardet, Fabio Aru, Rui Costa and last year's 3rd place finisher Jacob Fuglsang. The hilly nature of the course also means we have a dearth of pure sprinters here too, with only Alexander Kristoff, Sacha Modolo and Sonny Colbrelli you could class as pure sprinters, but we have a number of powerful one-day riders here too that can get in the mix like Tom Boonen, Greg Van Avermaet and Jempy Drucker.
2015 Podium
| Rider | Team | Classification | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vincenzo Nibali | Astana | 22h 25min 25s |
| 2 | Romain Bardet | AG2R | at 15s |
| 3 | Jacob Fuglsang | Astana | at 24s |
The Route
Like in Dubai, the route doesn't change much from year to year, but it's quite a varied route with something for many different types of riders. The terrain is also more varied with rolling hills and of course, the big challenge of Green Mountain. Being in the south-east of the Arabian Peninsula means that it is less windy than the other two races, but that's not to say the weather can't be a problem - in fact, in 2015 the riders staged a protest that got Eddie Merckx a little hot under the collar, the riders weren't that keen on riding in 40 degree heat on melting roads and eventually had the stage cancelled.
Stage 1 iis basically the same as last year with the finish in Nasseem Park, Stage 2 is similar to stage 1 of last year with the uphill finish in Al Bustan, but they start out in the desert hills of Nakhal instead of on the coast in the Oman Exhibition Centre. Stage 3 is almost the exact same as stage 2 last year, finishing in Quriyat with that tough pull up for the last 2.5kms at 6.7%. Stage 4 is the same as stage 5 last year with the three climbs of Bousher al Amarat, but it should end in a sprint finish.
The Queen stage to Green Mountain has been pushed back a day to stage 5 this year, last year it was a day earlier on stage 4. The route is 25kms shorter this year as they start in Sama'il in the desert, and more importantly the climb is 2kms shorter, they are not going all the way like they did last year. And the final stage is exactly the same as stage 6 last year, with the sprint finish at the Matrah Corniche.
It will all probably come down to Green Mountain again, but with it being the second to last stage this year and with the climb 2kms shorter, this year's race might be a bit more open than last year when Nibali stormed to victory.
There are bonus seconds available on all stages, 10", 6" and 4" for 1st, 2nd and 3rd on each stage and 3", 2" and 1" for the intermediate sprints. With what could be a very tight race, these bonus seconds could be vital.
Stage 1
Stage 1
Al Sawadi Beach to Naseem Park
Tuesday, February 14th, 176.5kms
This is exactly the same stage as stage 3 from 2016, starting in Al Sawadi Beach and finishing in Naseem Garden. The start and finish of this race are only about 25kms apart on the coast, but they go off on a 175km horse-shoe shaped route that takes them from Al Sawadi Beach south to Al Awabi and back to Naseem Garden.
After heading west for 20kms to Al Muladdah they turn south and start climbing. It's a gentle gradient that drags on for nearly 65kms but it shouldn't really trouble these guys too much and we are likely to see the stage ending in a bunch sprint. After they crest the climb after 85kms they descend for almost 90kms, so the end to the stage is sure to be extremely fast, but it looks like they might have a slight headwind on the way back to the coast, which may hinder any breaks attempts at trying to stay away.
Last year's stage finished in a bunch sprint, won by Alexander Kristoff from Moreno Hofland, and in 2014 it was also won in a sprint by André Greipel, Leigh Howard finished 2nd to him. And to be honest, I can't see Alexander Kristoff being beaten in this one either. 2nd to Arnaud Démare twice in Etoile de Besseges last week, plus a stage win for himself, he looks to be in good shape. I don't think there are any better sprinters than Démare here and he should have the beating of all these second division sprinters.
But most importantly, he has a beast of a team with him to control things and lead him out. Haller, Taaramae, Kuznetsov, Morkov, Pollitt and Hollenstein are all super strong and will just drag him to the last 300m. He will probably go early, like he tends to do, but should be strong enough to hold them all off. They may even be strong enough to try to force splits in the last 40kms and strip out some of his opposition.
Tom Boonen is probably his biggest danger, and Tornado Tom looks to be in great shape already this season as he builds up to his swansong at Paris-Roubaix. The Quickstep man retires after PR, so is in advanced stages of preparation in order to be as fit as possible for the Classics. A winner of a stage back in 2010, he also has seven other top 6 placings on stages, but has always gone well in the Tour of Qatar with an astonishing 22 stage wins.
He too has a super strong team with him with Iljo Keisse, Laurens de Plus, Nikki Terpstra, Yves Lampaert and Bob Jungels here to tow him in to position. It may be that they plough their own furrow rather than trying to get on Kristoff's wheel and we might have two separate, duelling leadouts in the last kilometre. I think Boonen is good enough for a top 3, and maybe if they get it absolutely right, he could take the stage, but he's too short at 7/2 to try the each-way.
The bookies have made Maximillian Walscheid their 8/1 third favourite, and if you're asking "Who?" you're probably not alone.. The young German Sunweb sprinter had a breakthrough race at the Tour of Hainan last year when he took 5 stages wins out of 9, with a 2nd and a 4th thrown in as well. Granted, that was a pretty awful field he was sprinting against, but he comes here as the lead sprinter for Sunweb, with a strong team backing him.
Roy Curvers, Bert de Backer, Mike Teunnisen, Zico Waeytens, Tom Stamsnijder, Roy Curvers and Ramon Sinkeldam are all very strong and experienced and they should be able to look after him very well in the last 10kms. Whether he has the speed to beat AK and TB is another question and I'm not willing to take a chance on that in his first real race in the big leagues, he was nowhere to be seen in the Arctic Tour of Norway last year when Kristoff was taking a 1st, 2nd and 6th.
After that there's a whole host of second division sprinters, and it really is a lottery ticket trying to pick a winner amongst them. Sacha Modolo does probably look 'best of the rest', he came pretty close in the Tour of Dubai, with a 5th, 5th and 6th place finish. He was no match for Kittel, Cav, Groenewegen and Degenkolb but was ahead of the likes of Viviani, Drucker and Blythe. He is capable of going close too and I'd rather be on him at 12/1 than take a chance with Walscheide.
Niccolo Bonifazio is becoming a favourite of mine, he's listed with all the bookies, but he's not on the startlist?! I don't know where they are getting their start lists from. Instead, Bahrain Merida will look to Sonny Colbrelli in the sprints. Colbrelli was unlucky in Dubai, coming off on an inoccuous roundabout with a few kilometres left, in stage 1 and puncturing in the last 10kms of stage 2, but when he got a clean run at it in stage 3 he took a superb 3rd at crazy odds like 100/1.
He showed there he has the speed, we know he has the guile and the nous for a tricky sprint finish, he will need to get on Katusha's train and try to come around Kristoff in the closing metres, but that's easier said than done.. At 50/1 though he'll have his backers, and I couldn't resist a bit of that, looks like the bookies haven't realised Bonifazio isn't doing it.
Jakub Marezcko, Kenny Dehaes, Roy Jans, Jempy Drucker, Adam Blythe and Marko Kump - all have chances, all are capable of a top ten, but it really is stick a pin in the page with them I think as to who may be the one to pull off a surprise podium. I can't see any of them winning it though. Jakub Marezcko took a fine 3rd in stage 2 of Dubai though, but he's too short to me at 11/1.
I think this looks a pretty straight-forward win for Kristoff, Boonen should be chasing him home though, and after that it's a bit of a lottery, but I like the price of Colbrelli at 50/1 and he's worth a small bet.
Recommendations:
4pts win on Alexander Kristoff at 5/4 with Paddy Power
0.5pts each-way on Sonny Colbrelli at 50/1 with Paddy Power
Matchbets
Jans to beat Blythe, Kristoff to beat Boonen, GVA to beat Pardini - 2pts on the treble at 2.37/1 with Bet365
Sonder Holst Enger to beat Drucker - 2pts at evens (Drucker might be asked to work for GVA in the sprint, Enger should have free reign to do his own thing in the sprint for now)
Route Map
Profile
Stage 2
Stage 2
Nakhal to Al Bustan
Wednesday, February 15th, 145.5km
Well that started well didn't it? Alexander Kristoff was indeed far too strong for this lot and the 5/4 looks a gift now eh.. And incredibly, despite a puncture inside the last 7kms, Sonny Colbrelli got up to land 3rd place for us at 50/1. So a great start there with the stage bets pocketing 10.75pts.
The matchbet treble came in too to add 4.74pts more, but incredibly, despite breaking a spoke in the last kilometres and suffering a brake rubbing against his wheel, Drucker still beat Enger.. I'll take 13.5pts profit on the first day of the race though.. Max Walscheid, the 8/1 second favourite was way down in 19th place, mad price for such an untested youngster. Great rides by Lasse Norman Hansen in 4th for AquaBlue, who now takes the White Young Riders jersey and also by Sebastian Hedao in 5th for United HealthCare.
The footage of the race was pretty awful, the 'live' coverage even managed to miss the finish, it's a sad state of affairs that we had to rely on mobile phone camera footage to try to make out what had happened and who had finished where.. And 90 mins after the end of the stage we still knew no more than who the top 4 were..
.@Kristoff87 wins again in Naseem Park #TOO2017 @katushacycling pic.twitter.com/KWhNHCtGkU
— Tour of Oman (@tourofoman) February 14, 2017
Tom Boonen was taken out of the sprint by a crash in the closing kilometres, he had ripped the back of his shirt and shorts but was able to ride back to his hotel afterwards, so can't have been badly injured it would seem. Quickstep announced later on that he will start tomorrow's stage though, to the delight of those that got him at 100/1 for tomorrow's stage in the early prices from Paddy Power.
This is similar to stage 1 of last year, well, the last 25kms of it are the same anyway on the run to the finish in Al Bustan. That stage last year was won in spectacular fashion by Bob Jungels, who soloed away from the remains of the peloton on the descent of the the Al Jissah climb which tops out with just 4kms to go.
This year the stage starts in the desert in Nakhal and even though the route is quite different, the distance is exactly the same as last year's stage, at 145.5kms. It's a far hillier route than last year's stage though, as they start climbing after 30kms and go over the first KOM of the race after 38kms, the climb of Fanja, which is just 1km, but averages 9.5%.
They roll along, heading east towards the coast, and after 96kms they go over the Bousher Al Amerat (3.4kms at 8.8%), a climb they went over 3 times in stage 5 last year. Shortly after that they get back on to the roads that finished stage 1 last year, climbing over the Al Hamriyah with just 22.5kms to go (800m at 9.8%).
At Al Jissah there's the 2nd intermediate sprint with just 9kms to go, and with 5.4kms to go they tackle the Al Jissah climb, which is 1.4kms at 9% average. It tops out with just 4kms to go, but it's an interesting last 4kms, as they dive down the hill at breakneck speed before the final pull up to the line for the last 400m (right). Last year this final climb blew things apart, with Jungels attacking solo and Serge Pauwels chasing him home, but there were only 14 riders in the first group that finished, with the rest of the filed scattered all over the place.
It's quite a lumpy course and may actually cause spilts and time losses that could shake things up quite a bit ahead of the main event on Green Mountain. Last year Romain Bardet led home the pack to take 3rd, he will be looking to do something similar this time, but maybe not let some breakaway guys take the stage ahead of him.
This is a tougher route than last years's and the race came home in pieces, with small groups scattered all over the road. They had a 120km run in to the first climb of the day last year, this year it comes after just 37kms. It is not going to cause splits that will last all the way to the finish, but it will start to put some under pressure early. The Bousher Al Amerat climb after 93kms could be a different matter though, at 3.4kms at 8.8%, it should shake things up quite a bit and probably will see stragglers go out the back and a smaller group of maybe 50 press on to the finish.
The Al Hamriyah is short at 800m, but is nearly 10%, expect a few more to maybe lose contact there, but it's on the Al Jissah that we can expect the GC teams to really crush it and blow things apart. Last year Daniel Oss went to the front and put them all under pressure, so much so that his team-mate, and one of the pre-race favourites Richie Porte went out the back door.. Astana took over and suddenly there were just 13 guys left at the front. Sepulveda crashed on the descent, while Jungels got in to a super tuck, pedalled like fury and suddenly he was away. On the run-in Pauwels attacked the group, as did Bardet, Bardet held on for 3rd even though he was given the same time as the chasers who just caught him on the line.
I think it will be the same scenario this year - only the strong and fit will be at the front cresting the Al Jissah, but they will be a bit more alert to the possibility of someone 'doing a Jungels again' and flying away on the descent.. so it could come down to an uphill sprint finish again. I am not sure that AG2R will try to blow it apart though, I think they'll keep their powder dry until the Queen stage. So it will be down to teams like BMC, Dimension Data or Astana I think to try to control it and push hard, but they can't push too hard as they could drop the likes of Van Avermaet and Haas who have chances on a finish like this.
Paddy Power made GVA their 4/1 favourite, and it looks quite short to me. Sure, he is great at an uphill sprint and he is in good shape as his 8th and 9th in two different types of stages in Valenciana showed. He won a number of races on uphill sprints last year, beating Sagan twice in Montreal and Tirreno, and should be able to hang in there unless the pace is brutally fast, which I don't think it will be.. but 4/1 doesn't offer a great deal of value, if he's not on a great day and some of the other teams really push it hard, he could be distanced a little on the climb and there isn't enough time to get back on before the finish.
Nathan Haas is second favourite, but he's similar to GVA - he may just be able to hang in there on the climb, and would have a chance on the uphill finish - look at his performances in the TDU where he finished 5th on the uphill to Paracombe, 2nd on Willunga Hill and 5th on the uphill finish in Campelltown. He followed that up with 7th in the sprint in the CEGORR, so he looks ready for a stage like this. Paddy Power opened at 6/1 though and there wasn't much value there, he's now out to 9/1 and looks a bit better. If you can get 10-12/1 he'd be worth an each-way shot.
Sonny Colbrelli almost landed the 50/1 for us today, he clearly has good legs too to be able to chase back after a puncture in the closing kilometres and still land 3rd. He will like the uphill finish part, but I worry about him staying with the climbers on Al Jissah, so the 8/1 he is now isn't great. I think he opened at 16/1, that was a bit more appealing, but I think I'll leave him for tomorrow, the 9/2 he is with 365 is just silly.
Romain Bardet is 11/1, but I think he will be outsprinted by faster guys, he was almost caught by the fast-finishing EBH last year. Simone Ponzi was one I was interested in though, he's a sprinter that may be able to hang in there over the climb, and will like the uphill sprint finish too. He didn't have a great 2016, but some good results on stages like this in 2015, if he can find those legs tomorrow he has a chance. He's just 12/1 now with Paddy Power (from 16/1) but he's 28/1 with Bet365 and that's worth a shot.
I don't think Bob Jungels will be given the freedom he got last year, the 14/1 is a terrible price on him, he was 66/1 for this stage last year and that is more like what he should be. Tom Boonen is going to start tomorrow despite his crash today, but he might be shook up after hitting the asphalt. He was 100/1 when PP opened, that was worth a small bet in case, but the 33/1 he is now is not appealing at all, seeing as he crashed, but also as the final hill might be too much for him.
Rui Costa doesn't have the sprint to win this, but he might escape on the final climb or descent, but is no bet for me at 16/1, Giovanni Visconti will also have better races to aim for. Jempy Drucker was one I liked though, I liken him to the likes of Tom Dumoulin and EBH in terms of stature and physique, he should be able to hang in there on the final climb and would have a chance in the uphill finish.
BMC's DS said that he touched wheels today in the last kilometre, broke a spoke and didn't sprint, but the plan had been for Oss to lead him out and for him to go for the sprint. Oss can look after him again tomorrow and maybe if it comes down to a small group with GVA in there as well they might decide to work for their sprinter instead of GVA, he was saved the exertion of energy in the sprint today too. I took the 33/1 with PP when they opened, he's now 18/1 but he's 50/1 with Bet365 now and that's worth a go.
Bet365 make Kristian Sbaragli and Alexander Kristoff quite short, but I'm not sure they will be there at the finish. Ben Hermans, Jakob Fuglsang, Tanel Kangert, Yves Lampaert, they should be in the front group, but I can't see them winning, but two others I liked at big prices were Grega Bole and Marco Canola.
Grega Bole likes a tough finish like this, can sprint a bit and looks to be going ok. He finished 1'39" down today, but that was because he was pulled back with Agnoli to pull Colbrelli back to the peloton after his flat, and they did a fantastic job, so he coasted home at his own pace. He was 100/1 with PP, I took that, he's 40/1 now, but 50/1 with Bet365.
Marco Canola can sprint, he can climb Iformer winner of the mountains jersey at the Criterium International) and he could well find himself at the front of this race coming to the last few kilometres.. he can sit at the back, hideaway, maybe with Arredondo or Santoramita and try to go for it in the sprint. Another long-shot outsider, but he has a chance at 40/1 with Bet365 (PP didn't even list him)
It's so hard to call how this stage is going to go, GVA may well win it, but he's too short for me. Haas has a great chance, the 9/1 is interesting, but I'm going to go for Drucker, Bole, Canola and Ponzi in small stakes in the hope that at least one of them makes it over the hill with the leaders and they can land us a place on the podium at the least. This is a tough uphill sprint, but I am not sure it's a finish for pure climbers, they can be outsprinted by punchy sprinters, that is, if they can hang in there on the climb!
Recommendations:
0.3pts each-way on Jempy Drucker at 50/1 with Bet365
0.25pts each-way on Grega Bole at 50/1 with Bet365
0.25pts each-way on Marco Canola at 40/1 with Bet365
0.25pts each-way on Simone Ponzi at 28/1 with Bet365
Matchbets
3pts on Jacob Fuglsang to beat Fabio Aru at 5/6 with 365
Visconti to beat Arredondo, Naesen to beat Marcato and Colbrelli to beat Pozzato - 2pts on the treble at 7/4 with 365
Kangert to beat Jungels - 2pts at 5/4 with 365
Canola to beat Pardini - 3pts at 4/6 with 365
Route Map
Profile
Stage 3
Stage 3
Sultan Qaboos University to Quriyat
Thursday February 16th, 162kms
Well that was an annoying bit of news to find out this morning about half way through the stage that the organisers had completely changed the finish, so instead of the 'Jungels descent' and then the uphill sprint, the stage finished at the top of the final climb, making it far more a climbers finish than it should have been. As a result, backers of Nathan Haas and Greg Van Avermaet will be furious, as the finished just behind the winners, and would almost certainly have been involved in the finish if it had been the original finish.
As it was though, Ben Hermans seems to have caught them unawares in the last kilometre and attacked away to win the stage from Rui Costa and Jacob Fuglsang, with Kudus in 4th, Haas in 5th and our GC boy De La Cruz in 6th (he said after he was annoyed that Hermans surprised them as he felt he had the legs to win it). All win bets went down the tubes, but thankfully stakes were small, and the matchbet treble and the Fuglsang matchbet won so we added another 3.4pts to the pot for Oman. Fuglsang is looking good too, on the podium at the moment, hopefully he can stay there.
Good rides by Costa and Kudus too, with Bardet just 7" behind in the first chase group. Hermans has the leader's jersey now, will he be able to hold off the other climbers on Green Mountain? It'll be a big ask, this was his sort of day, he said so himself afterwards, Green Mountain is a different matter entirely.
This is the exact same stage more or less as stage two last year, just starting in a slightly different starting point a tthe Sultan Qaboos University, but the rest of the course is the same, with the finish up the hill at Quriyat. It's a rolling course that sees them take on the climb of Bousher al Amerat after just 33kms, but the stage will be decided over the final 3kms on the climb up to Quriyat.
The climb starts with just 3kms to go and it's quite a nasty finish to the day. This is a tough finish to the stage in the mould of the Cauberg of the Amstel Gold race, that is 800m at 6.5%, this though is nearly 3kms at 6.5%.. It's a proper climb as you can see in the footage below from last year, the climbers all come to the fore and the race gets blown apart as the screw is turned by those at the front.
Last year we saw Dimension Data push really hard at the front in the last 1500m, then Pozzovivo attacked with about 800m to go and caused consternation, Nibali went with him, but so too did 'non-climbers' Greg Van Avermaet and Edvald Boasson Hagen, and EBH repaid the work of his team-mates by taking the sprint. For a moment, when Pozzovivo attacked, his team-mate Bardet was gapped as he had been caught too far back and the wheels in front of him were let go, but he battled back and finished with the leaders.
We will probably see something similar here this year, I don't think the break will stay away as the GC men know that the 10 bonus seconds on this finish could be vital ahead of the big one on Green Mountain.
Paddy Power were first out with the prices today and made GVA their 7/2 favourite.. Now ordinarily I think I'd be all over that, even if it is a bit short. He seems to be riding well and came very close last year in taking 3rd on this hill. Today saw him attack with 1.5kms to go, he was caught and passed by Kudus and then attacked again before Hermans took over and powered to the line. It looked like planned tactics that paid off for them.
But now Ben Hermans is in the leader's jersey, how do they ride tomorrow's stage? Will they try to defend and see if Hermans can hang in there on Green Mountain? Will GVA be given his turn to go for it and Hermans turns support rider? GVA has a big month coming up and it would be good to get him a good test and a confidence booster I think ahead of his Classics assault. If not, then of course Hermans has a chance again, but 7/1 to win the second stage in a row for someone like Ben Hermans is a crazy price.. The bookies have made GVA the favourite for the stage at 5/1, he may well win it, but at that price I'm not sure I'm willing to take the risk on him.
Nathan Haas came close again today to a big result, that's ten top 10s for him already this season, and once again he was ahead of a gaggle of so-called climbers. He is in such good form at the moment you ignore him at your peril, but again there is very little fat in him at just 6/1. He could be an each-way bet here though, he is sure to be very close again.
Merhawi Kudus seems to have a problem - he always seems to go too soon, he's still learning the art of attacking near the finish, he's no Alejandro Valverde.. He went after GVA today, blew up, but still held on for 4th place. Maybe if he can hang on a little longer tomorrow and time his effort right he could be in the top 3. Could be, but I think probably 4th to 10th, so the 12/1 isn't appealing to me.
Rui Costa showed good legs today to beat Fuglsang for 2nd place, he's going as well as I thought he might based on how well we was going in San Juan. He should be up there in the top 6 again but I think he'll find one or two to good for him, like last year when he finished 9th on this stage. Jacob Fuglsang looks to have good legs, and every second might count if he rides like he did last year on Green Mountain, he will be up there, but maybe 10-15" behind the winner. He was 7th on this stage last year, I think he will be top 6, but is too short with Paddies at 9/1 I think, the 14/1 with Bet365 is a bit more appealing.
Romain Bardet and Fabio Aru will be similar I think, they will be up there, but lack the killer kick to win this. Can any of the 'sprinter' types hang in there to challenge the puncheurs? Sonny Colbrelli might and he's a reasonable price at 33/1 with Paddy Power, he's only 18/1 with Bet365, he's worth a small interest at that price. Simone Ponzi wasn't far off the pace today in 26th place, we backed him today at 28/1, he's 200/1 for tomorrow, it would be soul-destroying if he got involved at that price.
Janier Acevedo was right up there today in 8th, he might go close again at 40/1, and Tanel Kangert could also be involved again, he seems to be riding well too. And what about David De La Cruz? He's right in the mix now for the GC, he's in 8th place, but on the same time as Aru and Bardet. He posted on his website after today's stage that he was annoyed with how it went, he felt he had the legs to win, but Hermans got the jump on them and surprised them. This finish should suit him well too and if Laurens de Plus and Bob Jungels can tow him to the last 500m he might well have a chance to attack. He's 33/1 with Bet365 and that's worth a shot.
Hard stage to call once again, but I think Van Avermaet has a great chance here to notch a second stage win for BMC. Haas will be up there too, but I like Colbrelli, Ponzi and De La Cruz at bigger prices.
Recommendations
Greg Van Avermaet - 2pts win at 7/2 with Paddy Power
Simone Ponzi - 0.2pts each-way at 200/1 with Bet365
Sonny Colbrelli - 0.3pts each-way at 33/1 with Paddy Power
David de La Cruz - 0.3pts each-way at 33/1 with Bet365
Matchbets
Matthias Frank to beat Laurens de Plus and Rui Costa to beat Ben Hermans - 2pts on the double at 6/4
Route Map
Profile
Stage 4
Stage 4
Yiti to Ministry of Tourism
Friday February 17th, 118kms
Soren Kragh Andersen pulled off a 200/1 shock win today for Sunweb, attacking away in the last kilometre to close down and pass Laurens de Plus who had attacked before him. Rui Costa and Ben Hermans showed how strong they are at the moment with 2nd and 3rd, Costa looked unlucky again to not take the victory. Hermans remains in the red jersey, the question now is can he hang on to it on GM? He should be ok in tomorrow's stage, but GM is a different beast altogether and it is going to be very hard for him.
De Plus held on to take 4th, busting our matchbet double, which I think we were unlucky with as Frank managed a very respectable 12th place.. Van Avermaet was out the picture in 13th, but Ponzi wasn't that far off, just 24" down. De La Cruz continues to impress me, taking 6th today, not far off landing a podium for us. He is 5th in the GC, just 11" off Jacob Fuglsang who also continues to impress, taking 5th today. Bardet was right up there in 7th again today and sits 19" behind Costa now on the GC. So all three of my GC picks are in the top 6 on GC, would be nice for the three of them to take 1-2-3 though!
Bardet has his hands full now though with puling back a rampaging Costa, he is in really good shape and has good climbing practice in his legs with his stage victory in San Juan. 19" is the gap, last year Bardet beat Costa by 29". A win for Bardet will add 10" to his lead, so he only needs to beat Costa by, worst case scenaro if Costa finishes 2nd, by 16" to take the lead. But is Costa in much better shape than this time last year, or is Bardet slightly down on his form of last year? I think they are both quite similar, but Costa seems to have that bit more of a punch than Bardet at the moment.
But a punch is no good to you on Green Mountain, save for the last 100m if you are in a duel for the victory, you need to be able to go hard for several kilometres, and I still maintain that Bardet has the edge on him there, he should be maybe good enough for a win by 20" or more again. Fuglsang looks very strong and was pretty close to Bardet last year (only 3" behind him) so he could actually be Bardet's biggest danger seeing as he has an 11" lead over Bardet.
A whitewash on the bets today, not happy with that, but we fight on, tomorrow is another day!
This is the same as stage five from last year, a stage that saw only 34 riders come to the finish together and Dimension Data had four men in there, including Edvald Boasson Hagen who was led out to perfection to take the sprint.
It's 1.5kms shorter than last year's stage at 118kms, not that that will make any difference, but it should be an exciting one as there are plenty of lumpy climbs along the way. It starts out from Yiti with a couple of hills to get over as they head along the coast, but the first two main climbs come after 33kms and 40kms with the Al Jissah climb which they already went over on stage 2 (1.4kms at 9%) and the Al Wadi Al Kabir (1.9kms at 6.3%).
They roll along until the 73km mark where they then start on the Bousher Al Amerat climb which they do three times in total. It's a tough climb that averages 6.8% for 3.2kms and hits 20% max gradients and we will probably see a whittling down of the group every time they go up it. They come over it for the second time from the opposite side, this side is a 3.4kms climb that averages 8.8%. They crest it for the third time with just 13.5kms to go so the final ascension will be crucial in deciding the stage winner.
The last 5kms are pretty flat, so if it is a solo rider or a small group that gets away they will have to be going flat out to hold off the chasers on the run-in - last year Peter Weening and Jacques Janse Van Rensburg were caught with less than 3kms to go after being up the road. In 2013 Froome won a similar stage to this and in 2014 Peter Sagan won it from Rigo Uran on a day they crested the climb four times in the last 60kms, with Nibali leading home the chasers just 2" back.
We are probably going to see a similar scenario to last year in that the break will go, but will be reeled in on the closing stages and the stronger sprinters that are left will fight out a reduced group sprint finish. With a reduced group there are of course chances of a strong late attack from the likes of Bob Jungels or Niki Terpstra of Quickstep, Daniel Oss of BMC, Mike Teunissin of Sunweb etc. But the most likely scenario is we get a strong selection of BMC riders at the front riding for GVA and they will probably be supported by the likes of DDD, Quickstep and Astana as they try to shake off Alexander Kristoff like they did last year, when he came in 1'18" down.
Let's tackle that question first - can Alexander Kristoff hang in there for the sprint? Because if he does, he probably wins. Well, he couldn't last year, and it may well be the same this year. The pressure will be on for the last 50kms to get rid of him, and whatever other sprinters they can. But - on a like-for-like basis, he was one of the last to finish in the stage to Quriyat last year, 7 minutes down. Today, in the same stage, he finished 53rd, only 1'17" down.. That would suggest Kristoff is in better form than last year and may well hang in there, or very close to the front going over the climb for the last time, and If he is there at the finish, he wins. At 13/1 with Bet365, he's worth a small win bet in case he does hang in there..
Can Tom Boonen make it over the climbs with the leaders? It's possible, he's a better climber I think than Kristoff on hills like these, and he looks to be in great shape because of his early season preparation. He was very annoyed after his crash in stage 1 as he really believed that he had the legs to win it. Quickstep had taken over in the closing kilometres, he had plenty of men left with him, but it was just one of those unfortunate incidents. He was so angry he decided to ride back to the hotel to give himself time to calm down.
And you know, looking back at it, I think he'd have had a fair shot at winning. Kristoff did it well, but not spectacularly, and he only just beat Colbrelli and Sbaragli, no geat scalps. I think Boonen with a good leadout would have had him under pressure. Quickstep have a lot of power here to look after him, and even if he loses 10-20" on the climb they'll get that back on the run-in. If he does hang in there he is favourite in my mind to take the stage, despite his crash, he doesn't seem to be too badly banged up to me. He's 14/1 with Skybet, again that's a price that he gets over the hills, as he would be 3/1 or so if it was a flat stage.
Of course GVA has be a strong favourite for this too, having finished 2nd on this stage last year, just pipped by Boasson Hagen (below). After a disappointing result for him (and us) today, he will be back to looking for victory again, I think he worked for Hermans again today at the finish, as I feared might happen. Hermans, Oss, Elmiger, Drucker - they will all be needed to help control things and lead him out on that long finishing straight, as it can be easy to go too soon on it.
I'm not sure a lot of the sprinters who were involved in stage 1's sprint will be involved here, but Sonny Colbrelli probably has a big chance again, he's riding ok, although he lost 1'29" today and finished behind Kristoff.. Maybe he was saving the legs for tomorrow.. He's very short now though at 5/1, but he's a better sprinter than GVA should he get to the finish with the front group.
I know i tipped Marco Canola in the first stage and he was one of the last home, down by over 10 mins, but I found out today that he has had a fever and diarrhoea, but he hopes for a result later in the race.. tomorrow might be too soon. Simone Ponzi again might have a chance at 18/1 with Bet365, he wasn't far off the pace today, only 25" back, I think he might be there at the finish tomorrow and would be one of the better sprinters left.
Soren Kraghe Andersen surprised most today with his victory, but let's not forget he took 3rd on stage 6 last year behind Kristoff on the Matrah Corniche. Based on his performance today he has a real chance of being up there at the finish again, and he knows how to win all sorts of races based on his results as a CT rider with Trefor-Blue Water. As there may not be too many sprinters left at the business end he could well be in the mix again.
Nathan Haas disappointed today too at just 6/1, but he will prefer this stage I think, as long as he can hang in there over the climbs, he'll have a chance in the sprint. And we may even see the GC candidates up there sprinting for time bonuses. Rui Costa has been riding really well and may well want to try to fight for every second he can, if so, Haas will have to lead him out. If they've managed to shake off most of the sprinters he might have a chance of a place at 10/1.
Ben Hermans could also be challenging for the stage for the time bonuses, he will need all the time he can get if he is to have any chance of holding on to it on Green Mountain. If so, that would be the end of GVA's chances as he will be leading him out. It could also be a day for a late break by Bob Jungels, he might be worth a shot at 40/1.
Another impossible stage to predict and there is very little value available. I'm going to take a punt on Tom Boonen getting over the climbs and being there at the finish, he might just be that little bit stronger than Kristoff, and has a super strong team with him. I'm going to give Ponzi another go too as I think he'll be there at the finish, and Jungels might get his chance tomorrow to have a crack in the closing kilometres, we know how well he's going.
Recommendations:
1pt win on Tom Boonen at 14/1 with Skybet
0.5pts each-way on Simone Ponzi at 18/1 with Bet365
0.5pts win on Bob Jungels at 40/1 with Skybet
Matchbets
Acevedo to beat Frank, Colbrelli to beat Hansen, Ponzi to beat Pozzato and Andersen to beat Lutsenko - 2pts on the four-fold at 3/1 with 365
Route Map
Profile
Stage 5
Stage 5
Sama'il - Jabal al Akhdar
Saturday February 18th, 152.5km
Annoyed with myself with today's result.. I said in the preview that Kristoff was worth a win bet at 13/1 as he wins if he hangs in there.. and then changed my mind in the summary and left him out. And lo and behold, he wins. GVA disappointed his backers by finishing 2nd for the second year running in this sprint, but those who took e/w got a little back at least. Colbrelli also got up for his each-way backers for another 3rd in this race. Unfortunately Boonen managed to get himself detached from this group and came in over 5 mins down. Jungels blew his chances of doing something in the closing stages by going in the break of the day. Ponzi was 11th, but good to see Canola back up there in 10th after his sickness at the start of the race.
Fuglsang was active once again, attacking with Keung in the closing stages but was reeled in before it became a bunch sprint. He's either very strong and looked to try to take more time today ahead of tomorrow, or is worried about his climbing legs and tried to steal time.. I think, and hope it's the former, he has looked very good this week.
And so on to stage 4 and the fabled Green Mountain stage. It has been the deciding stage every year they have climbed it and again last year Vincenzo Nibali took the crown with a grinding win that saw him pull away from his rivals over the last kilometer.
The stage is 25kms shorter than last year's as they start in Sama'il, a lot closer to the Green Mountain than last year's start in Muscat. They rejoin the course from last year though around 70kms to go and the rest of the stage is the same. They then ride along rolling, but mostly flat roads until the second intermediate sprint at Birkatal Mouz after 141kms. Right after they pass through it they start on the climb to Jabal al Akhdar, or Green Mountain as it's known.
T
his is a proper hard climb - but not as hard as last year, as they have reverted back to the shorter version, lopping 2kms off the top. It starts hard and doesn't get much easier - it officially average 10.5% for the 5.7kms of the climb but the gradient rises at various pitches at different points on the climb.
The start is relatively easy on the profile, but it its 20% in parts.. The section from 4.5kms to go to 3kms to go is hard, averaging 13.5%, then a slight respite for 1km at 6%, but the last 2kms are really hard again, averaging 13.5% all the way to the line.
It's not right to compare it completely to last year's climb, as it is 2kms shorter, it's better to compare it to the year that Froome won it, in 2014, as that was the shorter version (below). He attacked with about 1km to go after being teed up by Sergion Henao he kicked in the motor and blew Uran and Van Garderen away in no time. It is clear just how difficult this climb is by how Uran and TVG struggled to just keep the pedals turning.
Romain Bardet was unlucky last year, he was the only one able to respond to Nibali's final surge that got rid of Kudus and Canty, but in the sprint in the last 100m Nibali was just too strong. You would have to think that Bardet will be one of the main protagonists again this year and will have to deliver here I think if he wants to justify favouritism and win the overall.
I think there are only seven guys who will probably be in contention at the finish of this stage.. We will have a break that goes again, but it's unlikely to stay to the finish. It's likely to have a BMC man in there, maybe Stefan Keung, as BMC would be happy for the bonus seconds to be snapped up, just in case Hermans is on a good day and he can stay pretty close to the likes of Bardet, he's got a 23" lead over Bardet after all.
Romain Bardet has been right up there on every stage so far, taking 14th today in a sprint finish, taking no chances with splits or crashes. He has been just behind the likes of Costa and Kudus on the short, punchy finishes, but this is more his playground now, a long hard climb ike this.. Nibali is a pretty decent marker to finish just behind last year, it was Bardet did the pushing and attacked in the closing stages, only Nibali could mark him and just outsprinted him at the end.
I think he has a big chance here again this year - this race has been all about staying in there and close to the leaders and going for it on this one.. Did we really expect it any other way? That's what his short price pre-race was about, that he'd win on here and take the overall. He finished 34" ahead of Kudus last year, and 29" ahead of Costa, a repeat of that will seal the win. AG2R have Matthias Frank to help him and he looks to be in great form too, he could be a huge asset to him to help string things out and put Kudus and Costa under pressure.
Merhawi Kudus should be closer to him this year, he has been riding very well this week, and the DDD DS (!) revealed before the race started that he had been training specifically for the effort required on GM, doing hard, 30min training sessions, as he reckons it requires about 30 mins of hard effort. I would think he's probably a good bet for a top 3 placing, but I don't think he has the beating of Bardet just yet.
Rui Costa was 29" behind Bardet last year, and 5" ahead of Kudus.. I think they will be as close to each other again this year, I think they are evenly matched, but can Costa find that extra effort to stay close enough to Bardet? Costa as an 18" lead over Bardet, but if Bardet wins the stage he gains 10 bonus seconds, so it could be very close indeed. I think Costa will be top 3 or 4, but I think Bardet has the beating of him too
Jacob Fuglsang can go close, he will be in the top 5, I think and hope he can hang on to a podium spot too. His team-mate could be the dark horse here though - Fabio Aru. We all know how well he can climb when he's on form, but will he be on form for such a brutally hard climb this early in the season? Well on the uphill finish to Al Bustan he looked ok, finishing 7th alongside Bardet and Frank, so he was climbing very well it seems that day. This is a different matter altogether though - he will either go full gas on the climb and crush them all, or get tailed off in the last kilometre. I think it might be the latter and he might roll in 20-30" down.
David De La Cruz is another who I think and hope can be up there tomorrow, he has been riding superb this week and is still in with a shout for the GC here. He's a very good climber and has the support of a very strong team. They also have Laurens de Plus on the same time, so it will be interesting to see how Quickstep approach this stage, but I think they need to get behind DLC as he's probably the better climber on a finish like this.. He might just have the kick to stay with the leaders here and could outsprint Bardet if he has stayed with him.
And finally Ben Hermans.. Can he hang in there? He has been climbing really well all week (and in Valenciana) and he has the motivation of the leader's jersey. He will find this extremely hard though, something like the climb on the Queen stage of Valenciana when he lost 1'07" to Nairo Quintana, but there is no one of the ability of Quintana here, no disrespect to Bardet & Co.! I think he will struggle in the last 2kms and could lose a minute or so again.
So, I think this is Bardet's to lose tomorrow, he should be too good for the rest of these, although form suggests that Rui Costa should be right up there, along with Jacob Fuglsang. Merhawi Kudus, Fabio Aru and David De La Cruz will also be involved, there could be an excellent battle for 2nd place (and maybe the GC) behind Bardet.
Recommendations:
2pts win on Romain Bardet at 7/4 with Skybet
0.5pts each-way on David De La Cruz at 20/1 with Skybet
Matchbets
Frank to beat De Plus - 2pts at 5/6 with 365
Costa to beat Kudus - 2pts at 11/10 with 365
Route Map
Profile
Stage 6
Stage 6
The Wave Muscat - Matrah
Sunday February 19th, 130.5km
Very strange stage today, don't know what happened to Bardet and Fuglsang, but to finish as far down as they did was incredibly disappointing. Fuglsang went from a probable podium to way out of contention, and Bardet, I mean, come on, how can you be beaten by Nathan Haas on a climb like this?! That was a pretty awful performance from him, very disappointing to finish the race like that.
As for Hermans, yes, he's in great form, but what is he doing winning on a mountain that has seen the likes of Chris Froome, Vincenzo Nibali and Joaquim Rodriguez take stage victories?? I don't know what that was all about.. It is a pretty incredible victory as far as I'm concerned. Kudus - is he ever going to learn that he needs to wait and time his attacks better? Once again he went too soon and was swallowed up before the finish.
The final stage of the race is relatively short at just 130kms, and is exactly the same stage as the final stage last year that saw Alexander Kristoff take a messy sprint ahead of Zico Waeytens. The route first takes them north-west along the coast to Al Seeb before they double back and ultimately start heading in a general easterly direction. After 78kms they go over the climb of Al Hamriyah (800m at 9.8%) and then after 92kms they turn left again at Al Jissah where the first intermediate sprint of the day is located.
Shortly after they climb Al Jissah with 35kms to go, and although it is relatively tough at 9% for 1.4kms, it should be far enough from the finish for sprint trains to drag their sprinters back in to the race for a sprint finish in the Matrah Corniche like last year. The finish comes after four laps of a 7km circuit around the Matrah Corniche, with the last three kilometres flat and straight - it's almost certain to end in a sprint.
Alexander Kristoff wins, let's not beat about the bush - and like with Coquard in Andalucia, he's no value at 8/15. He's just too good for these guys and his team just too strong to let him down. Sonny Colbrelli may well be the each-way bet at 11/1, he's sprinting well and will be all out to impress for Bahrain Merida in their last race in Oman. He got closest to Kristoff in stage 4, it may well be a similar situation here if he can follow his wheel again and try to pounce late.
Tom Boonen disappointed me on Thursday, I thought he would make it to the finish with the lead group, and the fact that Kristoff did, and he didn't was a surprise to me. He is still desperate for a stage win though, and will be feeling a lot better after his crash on the first stage, so he could well run the podium close too at 7/1. Sacha Modolo you just cannot trust at 9/1, he could be 2nd, he could be 12th or anything inbetween. Marco Kump should be working for him tomorrow though so he should be good enough to beat Blythe in a matchbet.
Just for fun though, because of the price he is, Marco Canola is a bet I am having tomorrow, and a massive 300/1 with Paddy Power. Canola told me on Friday that the reason he finished 10 mins down on the first stage was he had fever and diarrhoea, but he hoped to go better later in the race. On the last sprint, he finished 10th, it isn't much of a step up against this pretty average competition to move up a few places, he might just surprise with a podium.
Kristian Sbaragli, Eduard Michael Grosu they can be up there too, as could Roy Jans at 18/1, and maybe someone like Bob Jungels or Yves Lampaert can have a go in the finale and try to surprise the sprinters.
If you want to back Kristoff though, and are feeling really brave, the double with Bryan Coquard in Andalucia pays 6/4 with Bet365. As it is, I think I'll just have a fun bet on Canola, with another on Colbrelli who could come close to Kristoff again.
Recommendations:
0.2pts each-way on Marco Canola at 300/1 with PP
0.5pts each-way on Sonny Colbrelli at 11/1 with PP
Matchbets
Kristoff to beat Boonen, Colbrelli to beat Sbaragli, Modolo to beat Blythe - 2pts on the treble at 7/4 with 365
Haas to beat Kragh Andersen - 2pts at 8/11
Route Map
Profile
Overall Contenders and Favourites
Bet365 came out with prices first on Sunday afternoon and they made Romain Bardet their 6/4 favourite with Fabio Aru at 7/2 and Rui Costa at 11/2. They do look like the three main protagonists for this race, they have the climbing ability to be up there on all the important stages, particularly on Green Mountain.
Romain Bardet was very good here last year, taking the good form he had shown in the Clasica de Almeria, when he attacked on Alto Cuesta de Almerimar and almost winning this race. He was right up there on all the important stages and was unlucky not to win on stage 1, just that Jungels and Pauwels had escaped their clutches on the run-in (left). Unlucky also on Green Mountain, he just couldn't match Nibali's kick in the last 100m. It was enough for 2nd on the stage and 2nd overall, just 15" behind Nibali. He also won the young riders jersey in 2014 when he finished 13th overall.
He had a good year last year, despite only getting his hands in the air once on the Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc stage of the TDF, but he did finish in the top 10 on 18 occasions during the year, showing how consistent he is. He finished the season well with a good 4th in il Lombardia and has prepared over the winter to start with a bang here. He is targeting the TDF this year though, which is a long way out, but he tends to start his seasons well.
He has a reasonably strong team here (despite no Pozzovivo to help him like last year) with Mathias Frank, Oliver Naesen, Hugo Houle, Alexis Gougeard and Sonder Holst Enger here to look after him. He should go well on the finish to Quriyat on stage 3 and on stage 2 with the finsih to Al Bustan, but it should be on Green Mountain that he puts this race to bed, he just needs to make sure that he has kept himself in the race up until that point.
Fabio Aru is generally a slow starter to a season, building up to his bigger targets later in the season. This year, his first big target will be Tirreno Adriatico and the Giro though, as opposed to last year when he was targeting the TDF, so he may be further along in his preparations than in previous years. We wondered whether Nibali was ready for this race last year and got our answer there, so it would be dangerous to underestimate Aru here. Bet365 aren't, as they make him just 7/2 2nd favourite.
He hasn't done this race before, his prep last year saw him start in Valenciana, Algarve and Catalunya, where he finished 6th, 9th and 14th on the GCs, but he was well off of challenging for a win in each of them. He also disappointed in the Dauphiné and was only 13th in the TDF, so it was actually quite a disappointing year for him, taking only one victory, in a stage in the Dauphiné. Based on that, and the fact that he hasn't got a great team here with him, I'm reluctant to back him here, even each-way, as there is no appeal him at just 7/2.
Rui Costa has started the season very well with a stage win and 5th overall in the Vuelta San Juan, winning impressively on Alto Colorado which climbed to over 2,500m. Riding now for UAE Abu Dhabi, he will be out to impress for the sponsors ahead of their 'home race' in Abu Dhabi in just over a week's time. 11th in 2015 and 5th last year, he has gone ok on Green Mountain in the past (6th and 5th), just hasn't been strong enough to match the best climbers.
This could be his big chance though for a podium placing though, with the weak line-up and him having come off of a very good prep race in San Juan. His weakness is surely his team, it's a pretty awful team he has here with him, with the focus maybe on trying to get a stage win with Sacha Modolo, I think he will be on his own at the end of most of the tougher stages, and definitely for the last 5kms of Green Mountain. But he was often used to that at Lampre so it may not be too much of a hinderance for him.
Merhawi Kudus rode well here last year, leading them up on the lower slopes of Green Mountain, looking good in the wheels of Nibali and Bardet, but just couldn't match them when Bardet kicked on in the last kilometre. He rode really well on the queen stage in Valenciana, matching Quintana for as long as he could, finishing 2nd on the stage to Lucena, just 40" down on the rampaging Colombian. He finished nearly 30" ahead of Dan Martin and it may well signal a step-up in his climbing ability and confidence that could see him challenge the podium spots here too.
If DDD hadn't done such a poor TTT in Valenciana he could have been very close to a podium position. There's no TTT here, or even individual TT, so that works in his favour, but he has a weak team here with him too and he'll have to be on the alert on the other punchy stages so that he doesn't lose time ahead of Green Mountain that might put him out of the running.
Jacob Fuglsang and Tanel Kangert are two other options here for Astana, and at 11/1 and 16/1 they might represent a lot better value than Aru at 7/2. Jacob Fuglsang rode very well here last year, working selflessly for Nibali, and still managed to finish 3rd on Greem Mountain and 3rd overall in the GC, coming home on Green Mountain just 12" behind Nibali and just 3" behind Bardet. He also was well up there on the finish to Quriyat (7th) and started this season well too with 9th on the climb to Llucena in Valenciana, good enough to see him finish 6th overall, the 1'52" Astana lost in the TTT costing him a podium place. I think he can go well here, the punchy finishes suit him, and if Aru is not 100%, he should be riding for himself and GC up Green Mountain.
Tanel Kangert can also go ok here, but I think he will be supporting whoever of the top two Astana men will be going for the GC. What might work for him though would be an attack that manages to hold on some day and gain enough time for him to defend on Green Mountain, but it's unlikely.
Ben Hermans represents BMC's best chance here probably, they have none of their top climbing talents here and GVA is going to lose too much time on Green Mountain. He finished an excellent 2nd overall in Valenciana, but that was mainly down to the brilliant TTT by BMC, although he did hold his own on the Queen stage to finish just 1'07" behind Quintana in 7th place. He could go well on the punchier stages, maybe even is capable of a late escape on one of them, but I think he will be losing 30" or so on GM and that will finish his win chances. Too short for me at 22/1.
Bob Jungels was immense in Dubai, practically towing the whole peloton around day after day, he has an enormous engine on him. Seeing as he went so well here, leading the race after his bold attack on stage 1 to Al Bustan he is probably Quickstep's best chance of success again. He should be right up there on most of the punchy stages, but he lost a load of time on GM last hear and I fear we might see the same again this year, so that rules him out for me. I backed him at 150/1 last year and he gave us some excitement for a while, but he's no value at 25/1 this year.
Instead, Quickstep should be looking to David De La Cruz I think for a good result here. The Spaniard had a good 2016, culminating in a superb victory on stage 9 of the Vuelta for us at a massive 150/1.. He was very active in Valenciana, getting in to the chase group that tried in vain to pull back Tony Martin on stage 1, he also finished 14th on the Queen stage to secure a 7th place in the GC. He looked punchy and strong in Valenciana and he should go well on the stage to Quriyat and maybe can do a top 6 ride on Green Mountain too so could challenge for a podium at 33/1.
Javier Acevedo represents United Health Care's best chance here probably, the Colombian went well in the Herald Sun Tour, taking 12th place in the GC, he finished just 11" behind Chaves and Froome on the Queen stage that was won by Howson, up that tough final climb. He finished 8th, 11th, 17th and 20th on the four road stages, so must have good legs at the moment and at 50/1 he could be a dark horse here for some.
He's never raced in the middle east though, but the heat shouldn't faze him too much, he has won races in Guatamala, Costa Rica and in California and Utah. His best win was probably beating Tejay Van Garderen to a stage victory in the USA Pro challenge in 2013 on a tough stage that finished in Beaver Creek. He also had the likes of Matthias Frank, Darwin Atapuma and Tom Danielson behind him. It's been a while since he last won though, but he will be not watched as closely as some of the other GC candidates and might sneak away one day.
Julian Arredondo had a really disappointing year last year and moved to Nippo-Vini Fantini for this season. It hasn't started off great for him either, finishing a lowly 46th in the GC, with no placing better than 43rd in the stages. I can't see him featuring here. Greg Van Avermaet is capable of going well on a number of these stages, but he won't be winning the sprint stages and will get left behind on Green Mountain by 30" or more, so that rules him out too.
Nathan Haas, Rein Taaramae, Lachlan Morton, Laurens de Plus, Daniel Diaz and several others are similar, they could feature in some of the stages, but aren't good enough to hang in there on the big day.
So it looks like it is between about 3-4 men really. Bardet is a solid favourite, and unless he is under the weather, or gets caught out by an accident or a crazy breakaway taking too much time, I think he looks the winner. He will go well on all the regular stages, could top three on Quriyat and up the hill finish in Al Bustan, and should win the stage to GM.
I'd rather be on Rui Costa at 11/2 than Fabio Aru at 7/2, but the other ones I like are David De La Curz at 33/1 with Skybet (have just come out with prices) and Jacob Fuglsang at 14/1.
Recommendations:
4pts win on Romain Bardet at 11/10 with Bet365 (I'd advise having 4pts now, and if Kristoff wins stage 1, which he should do, play up your winnings on him by adding to your bet on Bardet, he should be the same price after stage 1)
0.5pts each-way on Jacob Fuglsang at 14/1 with Skybet
0.5pts each-way on David De La Cruz at 33/1 with Skybet