Tour of Britain Stage 8 Preview

Epsom to Guildford, 155km

Mark Cavendish did it again today in Guildford, but the way he won it was the reason I neither wanted to back or lay him today. In the space of about 100 yards he went from winning, to losing to winning - it could have gone either way.. 

I also think that the fact Cav forced Viviani over on to the rougher left hand side of the road was a shrewd move that may have won him the race - Viviani's back wheel jumped all over the place and probably cost him the race. Pettachi's lead out was top class though, got him the gap that won it. In the morning at the start at Epsom I had spoken to a well known local DS who does a bit of punditry and he told me that Hausler really fancied it today and he was thinking of having a small bet on him at 25/1.. It wasn't to be though as he finished well down the field, but he was kind enough to stop to sign my son's autograph book beforehand! My Main bet Sam Bennett was just out the frame but had another impressive finish in 10th. My match bet treble landed though at 3/1 with Ciolek, Elmiger and Bennett winning their respective battles. 

We started at Epsom, where for most teams there was a nice relaxed atmosphere and we mingled, chatted and got autographs and pictures for my boy's already impressive collection! There were a few fun moments though, when first Dowsett came out of Movistar's bus and chatted and had a bit of banter with the fans and was followed by Madrazo and Quintana.

Madrazo was happy to pose and sign his book, but Quintana was suddenly pounced upon by some Colombian fans who thrust a baby in to his arms for a picture in a quite surreal moment. Quintana looked a little uncomfortable but went along with it, and was then grabbed for a big man hug by the chap who incredibly was even smaller than Nairo (but about twice his weight!). Dan Martin stopped and posed like a gent too and after wishing him good luck for the world's we headed off in to the countryside.

After that we caught them at Cranleigh where they passed us coming in to a sharp bend at about 10kmph, my boy was holding an Irish flag and Martin was sitting very last wheel as they rolled down the hill.. he spotted him, gave him a smile, a thumbs up and a 'howya'.. made his day it did! After that we headed on to Guildford to watch them pass in a blur 35m from the line. Off to London for more tomorrow.   

Stage 8 - London

Not much to say about this circuit, it's the same as they have used before, with 10 laps of a flat 8.88km loop that heads out from Whitehall along the Embankment to Tower Bridge and back to Westminister Bridge and Parliament Street. There will be early breaks go and it will be lightning fast. Expect to see IG send a man up the road, An Post toowill probably be there and maybe a Rapha Condor JLT, Madison Genesis and Garmin rider.. in fact they will all want to be in the break as it's the last day and if it goes to a sprint, Cav will probably win it. It will be interesting to see if Pete Williams is left get in a break by Madrazo as there are only 5pts between the two of them in the battle for the Points Jersey. 

Contenders and Favourites

Mark Cavendish will amost certainly win the stage, but at 1/2 best price ( as short as 4/11), I don't think I have seen a rider that short for a regular stage win, other than say Wiggins for a TT or something like that. It is a silly price, but then again he probably does have a greater than 66.7% chance of winning the stage, so it's a fair price! I won't be backing him again tomorrow, but I won't lay him either again. I would like to have backed Viviani for a top 3 place, as that looks almost as much a certainty as a Cav win, but that is even shorter at 1/4! Nothing else really looks like value to me, so instead I am picking some matchbets again in an accumulator.

Bennett to beat Rathe @ 17.20

Ciolek to beat Modolo @ 11/20

Cavendish to beat Viviani @ 2/7

The treble pays 13/8.