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Published on Thursday, 19 September 2013 23:29

Tour of Britain Stage 6 Preview

Sidmouth to Haytor, Dartmouth, 137km

If there was any doubt about the burgeoning talent of young Sam Bennett after his second place on stage 2, it was well and truly silenced after a fantastic victory today in Caerphilly. He went with the select group which fought out the finish and showed maturity beyond his 22 years to easily outsprint some top class opposition. 

My 25/1 pick Pirazzi certainly gave us a run for our money, but not in the way I hoped - he got in the break of the day with Rathe, Madrazo and Williams and although they built up a lead of nearly 4 minutes at one point, and attacked again as they hit the foot of Caerphilly mountain, he was never going to win. I hoped he would have tried going at the finish with Martin and Co, but he obviously had other ideas!

Quintana and Martin also did as I expected and Martin traded to odds on when he powered away impressively up the climb, but Wiggo had Stannard who did a magnificent job to pull it all back together with about 3km to go. As they hit about 1km to go I quickly did an assessment, saw Sam Bennett was in the lead group but no real sprinters amongst them and hit the 10.5 that was available on him on Betfair. In the end he took it rather easily to crown a great week when he was named in the Irish World's squad. Incidentally, the other final candidate for a place on the Irish squad Matt Brammier also won today in the Stekene Koers, moving to the top step after a 2nd and 3rd last week. 

Stage 6 - Sidmouth to Haytor, Dartmouth, 137km

Stage 6 is the shortest stage on the Tour but that doesn't necessarily mean it is going to be easy! In fact it is one of the hardest stages of the week as it zig-zags through Devon and takes in three Cat 2 climbs and the Cat 1 summit finish in to Haytor. Not only that though, there are two hard climbs in quick succession right at the start of the stage as they depart from Sidmouth and head up towards Honiton. 

It is sure to see an early break of 6 or 8 go away again, which will more than likely include Madrazo as he aims to take an unassailable lead in the KOM competition. We will probably also see some IG Sigma Sport riders in there as they have been very busy all week, along with possibly a Saur Sojasun rider like Delaplace (3rd in the KOM comp), but I fear they will not stay away tomorrow either as Sky, Garmin and Movistar look to control the race to set it up for their men. 

Six Mile hill after 117km could be where the fireworks start, as there are only 20km left to go after the summit. Just before they hit the climb there is a little warm-up up Farrents Hill in Dunsford which is 7% average over 800m with sections at 16-20% about half way up. The climb itself then of Six Mile Hill is in fact around 4.7% at an average of 4.9%, but it is a real jagged climb with uneven gradients, and according to the Strava section, hits gradients of 30%+!! 

They then descend down in to the bleakness of the Dartmoor National Park before tackling the final climb of the day, the Cat 1 summit finish in Haytor. Make no mistake about it, this climb is going to really hurt and the race will blow apart on its slopes that hit 13-15% in several sections and average 6.4% for 4.6kms. Daniel Lloyd holds the KOM on strava for it at 11'36" and it will be interesting to see if that goes tomorrow when Quintana and Martin rip it up! It is steep all the way to the finish and it is perfect for the lightweight boys again.  

Contenders and Favourites

There are surely only two men in this again, Martin and Quintana - they both showed how sharp they are today again, and not only sharp, but when it gets steep, there are very few in the race who can stay with them. What will be crucial though will be when they time their attacks - if they go too early they might be pulled back by some of the grinders. I think Martin has to decide between two things tomorrow though. Give up on the GC ambitions, if he has any left and go for the stage win, which means he should probably wait for the last km to go like in L-B-L, or if he thinks he can take back a minute or more on the climb then he has to go early on the steep parts in the second kilometer and push it all the way to the finish.

If he does that, he may well be joined by a few others like Quintana, Simon Yates, Lelay, Madrazo and Reichenbach and it will make it harder for him to take the stage win. I still think though that he will win from whatever group goes with him, and make him an outstanding favourite. The only problem is the bookies do too and he is very short at just 7/4! Quintana is joint favourite at 7/4 with BetVictor, Bet365 make Martin 5/4 favourite, Quintana 2/1. 

With the top two favourites making up nearly 73% of the book, there are plenty of big prices around for others. Pardilla at 18/1, Yates at 20/1 look interesting, but I think I am going to stick to one main bet tomorrow and that is on Dan Martin to make it two Irish stage wins in a row at 7/4 or bigger. 

Only a few match bets interest me -  Pirazzi over Madrazo at 7/20 (I think Madrazo will have done his work for the day before then) and Lopez over Stannard (Stannard will have worked his socks off again in the lead up to the climb) and Pardilla over Bongiorno at 11/20. The treble pays 6/4.