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Published on Wednesday, 18 September 2013 23:07

Tour of Britain Stage 5 Preview

Machylleth to Caerphilly, 177.1km

Well for a stage that potentially was going to end in a sprint and possibly be a calm one ahead of two crucial stages, it turned out to be super exciting for the last 12km or so, but ultimately culminated in a great sprint win for Mark Cavendish. 

The early break duly went and they built up a lead which stretched to a max of just under 4 minutes. But interestingly, as the race went on, the lead, although it was dropping, was dropping slowly, and then seemed to stall around 2 minutes with only about 18km left as they headed towards Pen-y-pass. As they hit the steeper parts with about 2km left of the climb Daniel Martin lit it up as I predicted he would, followed by Quintana, but Wiggo and Sky marked it and just when they finally pulled things back together Jack Bauer shot off the front and started hammering down the descent.

The activity behind, coupled by a drop in the cooperation and coordination in the break saw them reeled in with less than 1.5km to go, and the sprinters teams surge to the front. Cav was guided forward by Pettachi and launched himself to the line with 300m to go, and although he was nearly caught by Viviani and Van Hoff on the line, he never looked like he would be beaten. Skills of the day has to go to Steele Van Hoff though who was almost taken out of it by a wayward, diving Viviani, but held it together brilliantly and avoid causing a massive pile up.

Bet of the day was the trading of Cav's price on Betfair in play, where I layed him at 8/11 and 11/8 as the break looked like staying away, then backed him again at 4/1 as the gap dropped, then layed Keisse at evens with about 3km to go.. It turned around a small loss on my other bets to a winning day. Hausler also gave a good run at the 33/1 I recommended him at last night. Overall though the GC remained unchanged but at least we saw that Garmin-Sharp are not going to go down without a fight which bodes well for the days ahead.  

Stage 5 - Machylleth to Caerphilly, 177.1km

Stage 5 stays in Wales and heads south from Snowdonia to finish just north of Cardiff in Caerphilly on a stage that takes in no fewer than 3 Category 1 climbs on the way. There are a number of lumpy hills in the first 35km or so which will no doubt see an early breakaway go again. The first categorised climb doesn't arrive until 79km in though when they hit the Cat 1 Cwm Owen climb. It is 4.2km at an average of 4.6% but there are some steep ramps on the way up. As they approach 2km in to the climb it reaches its max gradient around 16.7%, but there are several other sections around 10-11%. 

After that they will have a fast run for about 20km to the next climb of the day, when they start up the next Cat 3 climb of the Brecon Beacons. The main climb is around 4.3km at an average of 3.7% but it is a very steady drag with only small sections near the very top hitting around 10%. The mountain is longer than that though and if you take the climb from Brecon to the Storey Arms, it is a far longer 12.4kms at 2.3% average. Interestingly, IG Sigma Sport's DS this week, Daniel Lloyd, holds the KOM on Strava for both sections, so he should have his troops well clued up about the climbs! 

There is one more uncategorised climb coming out of Merthyr-Tydfill before they charge down to the finishing circuit around Caerphilly. They do a loop of 8km around Caerphilly, taking in Caerphilly Mountain twice, the scene of where Jonathan Tiernan-Locke won the Tour of Britain last year. It is sure to play a massive part in deciding the winner of the stage and it is made for a dramatic finish. Interestingly, the winner of that stage last year was Leopold Koenig who rode so well in the Vuelta recently. It may be only 1.4km long, but it is a nasty climb with several sections at 20+% and it hits a max of 32% 500m in to it. 

Contenders and Favourites

You have to say it will favour the little guys like Dan Martin and Quintana - I can see them do something just like JTL last year and go hard at it the first time. They will get a small gap of 10-20 seconds, power down the loop and with the chasing pack in pieces because of the climb they should be able to maintain a gap as they start up it again. Next time around they could well put another 20 seconds in to the chasers so they should have enough to fight out the finish on their own. If Martin can take 40-60 seconds on Wiggins it will set it up beautifully for the remaining stages where it could be all to play for. Time bonuses at the finish could be very important too. Martin should be able to ride this like his victory in Liege-Bastogne-Liege, skipping away from them - but to gain maximum time he will have to be in a good position at the bottom of the climb, as it hits 22% just 160m in to it. Quintana is bound to go with him again, they have been testing the bunch, and each other so far and there seems to be a mutual respect between them. It should be fantastic to watch.

If it comes down to a two man sprint, I would fancy Martin to take it, I think he will just want it more, unless of course he has got such a gap to put him close to yellow that he absolutely buries himself over the closing flat kilometres. So who else can possibly join them and win it? Well the bookies make Cav 8/1 which is a ridiculous price, have they not watched the videos of last year's stage? (It is below if you want to watch it..!) There is no chance I reckon he will be near the front at the finish, nor will Wiggo at 18/1 - he simply has put on too much weight to be able to stay with these guys.

Ciolek is second favourite at 5/1 but he seemed to suffer a lot today as he had nothing left at the finish - that would suggest steering clear of him tomorrow too, even if he is the winner of this year's Milan San Remo.. Pirazzi should fancy this tomorrow too though - winner of the mountains jersey in the Giro this year, and in Tirreno-Adriatico, he may well be a joker that can hang on to their wheels, or bridge up to them if they leave him a little bit behind. He is 25/1 with William HIll and I have had an each-way bet on him at that price. There are not many others I think who can get involved and the prices are not that great on the likes of Bennett, Yates, Madrazo and Coledan.

So it should be a stage to savour, and hopefully we will see an amazing spectacle with Martin and Quintana ripping it up Caerphilly Mountain. I want to back Martin, but 3/1 is too short for me - If I can get 5/1 or so on Betfair I will get involved in play.

Stage 6 - 2012 - Jonathan Tiernan Locke on Caerphilly Mountain.