Details: Published on Wednesday, 18 September 2013 00:07

Tour of Britain Stage 4 Preview

Stoke-on-Trent to Llanberis, 118.4km

The Tour of Britain heads off from Stoke tomorrow to head towards Wales for a lumpy stage that is sure to provide some more drama. Bradley Wiggins was a super impressive winner of the TIme Trial on Tuesday, taking plenty of risks along the way.

wiggo

It was interesting to hear Wiggins talk after how motivated he was for the stage.. "I had to win today, whatever. The conditions weren't ideal for me, but I thought I'd rather end up in hospital today than be beaten" - he took plenty of risks and his prep work was thorough and it obviously paid off. He destroyed his rivals, but the disappointment was Dowsett who clearly has been more ill than he is letting on and faded to a poor 5th place.

Jack Bauer rode a great TT to finish in 3rd place, leading the race at one point with a blistering 40" faster time than Pirazzi who had been leading. Ian Stannard then rode a storming ride to briefly lead also before Wiggo came in and crushed both of them. I was watching the betting in-play and when Bauer crossed the line with a lightning fast time I managed to get 7/4 on him to be in the top 3. Then also when Stannard hit the half way point with the fastest time I took some 2/1 on him to top 3 it also, so when they finished 2nd and 3rd it turned out to be a profitable day despite Dowsett and my match-bet treble letting us down.

Wiggo has a nice cushion for a 47" gap on his nearest real challenger, Elmiger (ignoring Stannard who is 27" behind him) and he may well hold on to the Gold jersey all the way to the finish in London. But there is a long way to go yet over some very lumpy roads and I don't think this race is over just yet. There are a number of good riders waiting within 2 minutes, so a bad day in the hilly stages to come could see things change.

Stage 4 - Stoke-on-Trent to LLanberis, 188.4km

Stage 4 heads west from Stoke towards Wales and the route is relatively straight forward for the first 90km or so before they hit the feed zone and then the first climb of the day, albeit an uncategorised one. They head up out of Mold towards Caerwys before taking a left turn and heading back down in to the valley where there are 2 sprints within 13kms. Expect an early break to contain some of those with their eyes on the points jersey..

After that they start up towards the two Cat 2 climbs which come in quick succession, first up to Groes, and then up to LLansannan, whose peaks are only 9km apart. Expect plenty of counter attacking from the climbers if the breakaway is within reach - plenty of KOM points available close together. They then descend down a fast and tricky descent towards Betww-y-coed before starting the climb up to the final climb of the day, the Cat 3 Pen-y-pas. The climb itself itself is only about 4.5km long at about 5%, but they will have been climbing gradually for about 10km before that. It may 'only' be 5% average, but after 2km it hits 11%, and then with 2km or so to go it starts to get steep again, hitting 11,12, 13 and even 14%. With only 9, very fast kilometers left to the finish down in LLanberis, expect furious action from the climbers trying to get away over the top. If a rider or a small group goes and gets 30-40" going over they top they may not be caught.

The finish is straight and flat and perfectly suited to a sprint finish, if they were to come to the finish together.

Contenders and Favourites

The bookies seem to think they will though as they have made the sprinters favourites to win the stage, with Cav favourite at only 2/1. I think this is a silly price though and if it was in any other country then it would be the lay of the century I think. FIrst, I think Cav may not even get to the finish with a chance of challenging - I wouldn't be surprised if it is a lone breakaway or a small group of 2-4 riders who contest it. Secondly, I think Ciolek is a far better value bet given what we have seen so far - Cav was nowhere and well beaten on Sunday, Ciolek was a close 3rd. He then proved the form he is in on Monday with a superb victory. He is twice the price of Cav at 4/1 and I would much rather back that then 2/1 for Cav.

In fact, I am tempted to place lay Cav if I can.. Finally, given the lumpy climb they have to get over 9km from the finish, I wouldn't be surprised if Ciolek made it over in a select group and Cav didn't.. That is a longer shot than a breakaway though in my mind as Cav does have a habit of digging in sometimes and 2km around 9% might just be managable for him.

If we are to look for a breakaway winner then I have to start with Dan Martin at a very nice 33/1 with BetVictor. Looking at the profile, a late climb with a descent to the finish is quite a bit like his TDF stage victory this year. That day he jumped a few kms from the top, I could see him jumping again when they hit the steep parts with about 2km to go. He showed on Monday up Holister Pass what great shape he is in, skipping away from the peloton and quickly gaining a minutes advantage with Quintana's help. He also rode a decent TT today so clearly he is up for it this week. He may well get help from Quintana again and maybe one or two others this time who are more alert to it, and if they have 30/40" again going over the top, they may not be caught this time.

Who else might go? Heinrich Hausler should like this kind of finish too and he is being talked up quite a lot this week but has yet had a chance to show it. He is a big looking 33/1 also. Martin Elmiger? Too big a GC danger I think, so hopefuly he won't try to go with Martin! Someone like Lopez or Golas might go to try to cover a move by Martin, but the other clear obvious candidate is Quintana. He too seems like he has come here to race and he should like that last 2km too. We may even see the Martin/Quintana double act again.

He's behind you! Sam Bennett and Gerald Ciolek And what about Sam Bennett? He showed the world the promise he has been showing with some fantastic results in Europe when he almost snatched an amazing stage win on Monday, only to be denied by Ciolek. His An Post CRC team did superbly, bossing the group to give him the perfect leadout. He may well want to try to go with Martin or whoever tries to get away on the final climb, or even if he is in a reduced bunch he must fancy a good placing now that his confidence will have taken a big boost. He is no doubt in the shop window now for a bigger team move and one of the final places in the Irish World's squad is surely his for the taking now. 40/1 with BetVictor is a nice each way price.