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Published on Sunday, 13 October 2013 23:30

Tour of Beijing Stage 4 Preview

Yanqing to Mentougou Miaofeng Mountain, 176Km 

A quick fire double for Bouhanni in Stage 3 saw him extend his lead at the top of the GC to 11" from Matthews and Bouet. Tomorrow though should see a big change in the GC though and quite likely shape the final placings. 

My 150/1 shot Adam Hansen gave me a bit of excitement, leading until about 12km to go, but he faded as he tackled the final climb. Despite the seven climbs and hard looking profile it was surprising to see so many sprinters still involved at the finish, the climbs mustn't be as bad as they look on the profile.

They start again for the second time in the race from the city of Yanqing but this time they head south in a twisty route that snakes in a figure of eight shape that first loops off towards Xian Ren Dong Village to take in the Cat 1 climb and shortly after the Cat 2 climb of Gao Ya Kao. Xian Ren Dong Village looks a tough climb, 7.7kms at an average of 5.5%, which is followed by a fast 10km descent before they take on the 3.5km Cat 2 climb of Gao Ya Kao, which averages a much steeper 7.1%.

They then descend for more or less 30kms, then a 20km flat respite before starting the climb to the summit finish of Mentougou Miaofeng Mountain. On the way up, they crest the Cat 3 climb of the Chen Jhia Zhuang mountain, but effectively they are climbing for more or less 30kms. The official climb to the summit is listed at 12.7km at 5.7% but it drags up long before that. 

Contenders and Favourites:  

Dan Martin has been installed the very short 9/5 favourite with Bet365 for the stage, and it is easy to see why - purely the lack of comparable opposition should he decide to light it up. Betancur is one of the few that can match him in terms of acceleration and climbing ability, but the fact he is 18/1 for tomorrow shows that the form just isn't there with him at the moment. 

The climb though is a very steady average with only small sections going up towards 9-10% so it could suit a power climber too - someone like Robert Gesink who is second favourite at 6/1 with Paddy Power. Gesink has had a disappointing season but has come in to some form in recent weeks. He won the Grand Prix Cycliste de Québec a month ago ahead of Rui Costa, and came 10th in the Giro di Lombardia last week. He likes a climb he can get in to a good rhtyhm on and this should suit him well. He may have Martin for company if he does, and the fight to the line would be close so I would rather back him at 6/1 than Martin at 9/5. 

Others to consider? Rui Costa looked like he was testing his legs a little this morning but didn't go all out, he may well have been thinking about tomorrow's stage. He is 7/1 3rd favourite with Paddy Power and could well be in a small break of 5 or 6 that fights out the final kilometres. Another one to look for would be Nocentini at 33/1 with Bet365 - he is a better climber than many give him credit for and may well be able to hang in there with the leading climbers. Remember he finished 6th on stage 9 of the Vuelta up Valdepeñas de Jaén, finishing with Nibali, Sanchez and Roche. If he does stay with them he would be hard to beat in the sprint.