Tour of Beijing Stage 3 Preview

Yanqing to Qiandiajian, 176Km 

So Nacer Bouhanni triumphed easily in Stage 2, getting a great lead out from Rollin that shot him to the front with 200m to go and the gap he gained was never in danger of being closed. Ferrari and Mitchell Docker battled in vain but Bouhanni was cruising in to the red jersey of race leader. 

There is no chance though that Bouhanni will still be in the red jersey after stage 3, it is a hard day in the saddle with no fewer than 7 categorised climbs on a route that seems to be either going up or going down all day. The climbing starts after just 20kms and they crest three Cat 3 climbs inside the first 45kms, all around 2-3kms, averaging around 5%.

The hardest climb on the day is the Cat 1 Si Hai climb which they hit after 92kms. It is 7.4kms long at an average gradient of 5.1%. They then descend for 25kms to the second intermediate sprint before hitting the Cat 2 climb of Cang Mi Gu Dao (4.6kms at 5.2% average) and finally after 165kms they hit the final Cat 3 climb of Huang Tu Liang. From there it is a fast run in to the finish with just 11kms to go. Whoever takes the summit with a small lead of at least 30" should be able to hold on.

It is a day for a long breakaway I think and there will be many looking to get in the break which will probably go on the first climb, but I wouldn't be surprised if there were counter-attacks that bridged on the second two climbs before a proper break is established before they hit the Cat 1 climb. The climbs though aren't that hard in the Grand Tour scheme of things so we may well see the main peloton chase them down in the run in to the last climb, setting it up for a possible late attack or even a reduced peloton sprint. This seems to be what the bookies are expecting as they have installed the likes of Hushovd, Breschel and Gavazzi at the top of the betting.

Hushovd is 8/1 with Paddy Power, but I think he is a poor favourite at that price. He did well on Stage 1 obviously but disappointed on Stage 2, not mustering anything close to the speed needed to get in the fight for a top 3 place. I think he might struggle tomorrow and will not be backing him. Neither will I be backing Bouhanni, Viviani or Matthews for the stage, I'm not sure they will be in the mix at the finish. 

I don't really fancy anyone strongly for the stage though and my main focus tomorrow is on Paris-Tours, but I will be having a small interest in Adam Hansen for the long breakaway at 150/1 with Bet365 and Christophe Riblon at 150/1 with Paddy Power. It is just the kind of rolling mountainous stage that Riblon will like and we may seem him out there looking for the time bonuses for a tilt at the GC. That is unless he is saving it for Monday's summit finish stage, but this might be a better option for him. 40/1 for the overall each way might be worth taking tonight too.

Juan Antonio Flecha (18/1) and Matt Brammeier (200/1) are other long breakaway candidates, but if it comes down to a late battle of the favourites, then we could see the likes of  Stybar at 16/1 and Bakelandts at 25/1 giving it a go in the last 15kms. And of course don't forget our World Champion, Rui Costa, an attack on that last climb and a charge down the last 11kms are right up his street. A small win bet on him at 33/1 with Bet365 is worth a go.