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Published on Friday, 11 October 2013 23:38

Tour of Beijing Stage 2 Preview

Huairou Studio City to Yanqing, 201.5Km 

It was quite funny watching the last 500m of today's stage as I noticed Thor Hushovd do something I found myself doing in some of my races on the Hillingdon circuit at the start of this year. Sprinting sitting in the saddle. 

Now I can in no way claim to be anything like Thor Hushovd in terms of ability, I couldn't hold his wheel in a warm down, let alone in a sprint, but we are similar in age (ok, I am there years older) and today I saw me in him in the way he sprinted for the line. Now you would think it is easy to get out of the saddle and sprint, but I found myself in sprints this year for the first time in 20 years since returning to racing, and something that annoyed me a lot was that in some of them I physically could not get out of the saddle, I was just too wrecked. So I stayed low and drove it as hard as I could to some top 6 places.

So it was funny for me today to see Thor push for the line while glued to the saddle - with only the occassional little spurt out of the saddle, like all he could muster was a few revolutions and had to sit down again. Hell, I know that feeling Thor. But the ease with which he made up the ground and then had the racing nous to lunge at just the right time was super impressive and a lesson to his young rival Mezgec who really should have won.

From a betting point of view it was nearly a washout, as Van Hoff finished 12th, just behind a wall of riders, but Viviani was even worse, rolling in in 17th but way off the pace for the win, despite being given a good leadout most of the way. I say nearly a washout though as I tweeted with 30km to go that I was after backing Matthews in-play to finish in position 4-9 at 11/5. I felt he would be up there but outside the top 3. As it turned out I was spot on and he finished in 5th to land a nice late bet. Lay bets of him to finish in top 3 would also have won but I forgot to place them forgetting how early in the morning the race was going off!

Just backed Michael Matthews to finish in position 4-9 at 11/5 with @bet365, think he will be just outside the top 3.. Just over 30km to go

— Ian (@Cyclingbetting) October 11, 2013

On to Stage 2 then and it can really go one of three ways. It is relatively flat in general, but they have to negotiate 2 Cat 2 climbs and a Cat 3 climb during the longest stage in the race at 201kms. First - we will almost certainly see a long breakaway - the fact that they start climbing almost from the flag drop is sure to see lots trying to get away in the opening 20kms. Whether they can stay away all the way to the line depends on who is in the break and whether the peoloton underestimate them and let them have too much leeway. Secondly, we could see some of the sprinters lose contact on some of the mountains, especially the final Cat 2 climb up to the Yan Shan Tian Chi KOM. This climb is 5km at 5.6% and if the action really hots up out the front we could well see the likes of Bouhanni, Ferrari, Van Hoff and more get tailed off. There is still 50km to go to the finish though, so they have a chance to get back on, but if the pace is super high and they don't get organised fast they may not get back on.

The final possibility is that they all stay together and it ends in another mass sprint like today. I think though it is definitely not going to be the first option and between the other two I am leaning towards a reduced peloton sprint. If so, who is likely to be there or not be there?

Thor was very impressive today and he has a real knack of hanging in there when the going gets a bit lumpy. I had picked him to win some of the lumpier stages of the Arctic Tour of Norway for that reason and he didn't let me down, landing me some very nice bets. I think he is very likely to be up there again tomorrow, but the other guys should be on to him now, they will be keen to not let him get away with it again. I think he will be in the top 3 and the 9/2 with Bet365 is decent enough, he is 3/1 generally (was about 40/1 to win today though I think!).

Bouhanni timed it wrong today and was easily bullied out of it. I think he may well be one to get dropped in the last climb so taking 3/1 or even 5/1 is not for me. Next in line is Michael Matthews at 6/1 generally. Again, I didn't think he would be in the top 3 today despite being evens to do so, and I would have thought the same for tomorrow, but if it is a reduced field then he has a much better chance. Even so I am not backing him for the top three or the win.

Mezgec was very unlucky today and I expect him to be right up there again tomorrow. Even so, I think he may have had his opportunity today and blew it, I can see him just being outside the win again tomorrow. It was interesting to see how fast Nicolas Maes finished today for OPQS, he came from miles back to almost claim the first two but more importantly, beat his team-mate Pettachi in to 4th place. If OPQS decide tonight to put all their power behind Maes tomorrow and Pettachi lends his support to the lead-out like with Cavendish, then he may very well go close again at a very big looking 40/1 with Bet365.

So: a win bet on Thor Hushovd at 9/2 and an Each-Way bet on Maes at 40/1 are my bets for now, will match for more in-play like on stage 1.