Tour of Beijing Overall and Stage 1 Preview

The Tour of Beijing starts this Friday in Shunyi in the Municipality of Beijing and it should bring the season to a close with a bang for some riders who are fighting for some late season glory, UCI points or potentially a new contract. For others like Juan Antonia Flecha it is the curtain call on a great career.

Although the race is missing most of the world's top ten riders, it is still a quality field is taking to the start line, with a number of 2013's stars such as Dan Martin, Ritchie Porte, Rui Costa, Betancur and Riblon in the fight for the overall General Classification. The race is held over 5 stages, starting on Friday the 11th and finishing on Tuesday the 15th. Here is a video preview of the race:

Tony Martin won the first two runnings of this race which began in 2011, a legacy of the 2008 olympic games in Beijing. Martin is back to defend his crown this year, but in his own words "My condition is good. (The) World's really motivated me to get ready for the Tour of Beijing as well, but to be honest the parcours this year is not really for me. There is no TT and there are a few uphill finishes". In fact stages three and four should decide the winner, and it isn't going to be Martin!

The Route

Stage 1 I go in to in more detail on Stage 1 below.. 

Stage 2 is the longest stage of the race, over 201.5km, and features three Category 2 climbs and a Category 3. The three Cat 2 climbs are very similar, all around 4-5kms with an average gradient around 5.5%.  They shouldn't cause too much trouble, but it looks a day made for a long breakaway. The fact that the final climb comes 50km from the finish though gives the bunch plenty of opportunity to reel them in and set up a sprint finish. 

Stage 3 is a made-for-TV roller coaster, featuring 176km of roads that are either going up, or going down. The route features no fewer than seven categorised climbs, including a Cat 1 and two Cat 2s. Again, it is sure to suit a long breakaway but expect the GC men to have a great battle, especially over the final three climbs.

Stage 4 could well be the race deciding stage, with the first summit finish in the three years of the running of this race at the top of Mentougou Miaofeng Mountain. It is a Cat 1 beast that is officially classed as being 12.6km long at an average of 5.7%, but they will actually be climbing for closer to 20km from the bottom of the valley. This should be a stage for the likes of Martin (Dan, not Tony!), Betancur, Astarloza and possibly Porte, Gesink, Frank and De Gendt to battle for the GC. Time gaps could be significant on this stage.

Stage 5 is the final flat criterium like finish around Beijing, from the famous Tianamen Square to the Olympic Park. It is a day for the sprinters finally after two days of pain for them! 

Overall Contenders and Favourites

Daniel Martin has been installed as the 9/4 favourite at Paddy Power and I guess this all hinges on whether he can skip away from the other contenders on that summit finish on stage 4. He clearly is having a great season, with Liege-Bastogne-Liege and the Tour de France stage win, and is still in great form despite his Vuelta crash judging by his strong but ultimately unlucky 4th place in the Giro di Lombardia. He should have no problem on Stage 3's 7 climbs and should roll in with the main GC contenders, but it's whether a break wins by a big enough margin on one of the others days that could scupper his overall ambitiions. 4th overall last year, just 50" behind TT master Tony Martin, and a 2nd and a 6th in stages last year, he clearly likes it over there too. With a 10" time bonus for stage wins, a gap of 10" or 20" on the stage 4 finish along with the time bonus should probably be good enough to take it. The question is, will he win the stage just like that? If you think he will then snap up the 9/4. It's a bit short for me, I'll wait to see if bigger prices are available in the next 24 hours. 

Second favourite at 7/1 is the new World Champion Rui Costa. It was a fantastic ride to win the World's but then he followed it up by getting dropped in his new (awful) white World Champions kit in the Giro di Lombardia, but he had worked his socks off for Valverde, which he took advantage of to finish 2nd.. Maybe a bit of payback for not chasing after him in the last 2kms in the World's!?! He will love stage 3 and 4 and depending on whether he can get away then he has a serious chance of winning a stage, possibly stage 3, with enough of a gap to challenge for the overall. I am not convinced though that the new pressures and distractions of the Rainbow jersey will not affect his performance so we could see a below par effort. 

There are a number of riders close together then ranging from 8/1 to 14/1. Gesink is 8/1 and comes to the race with big ambitions and a strong team in support of him. He will be strong on the mountain stages but not sure he will be able to get away to win by a large enough margin. Ritchie Porte has had a great season too and comes here as the team leader. The route profile and distance is similar to the Paris Nice which he won so he must be in with a shout of a good placing too. He has been a bit off the radar though recently and I am not backing him at 11/1. Carlos Betancur has had a hit and miss season, but more miss than hit recently. He is though one of the possible candidates to stay with Martin if he attacks on the steep slopes and may even jump away from him and take the time bonuses.. One to watch for a podium as he has a very strong team of experienced riders with him like Riblon and Nocentini.

Speaking of Riblon, he is one that I will be watching closely in this race, I can see him fancying it on stage 3 and 4 and at 14/1 he looks attractive, possibly even more attractive than Betancur at 12/1 for a top 3 at least. He will not be marked as closely as Betancur and is likely to try to get away for a long one on Stage 3 or 4 - and as we saw in the Tour on Alpe D'Huez and in the Tour of Poland, he is fantastic at the long range mountain breakaway. I had two fantastic results on him in the TDF and the TOP so I would like to see him do it again and I think 14/1 each way looks ok.

Other than that, two other long shots I like the look of are Stybar at 50/1 and Adam Hansen at 66/1. Stybar could well be one to attack earlier on the summit finish and stay away to take the bonus seconds, and he should have no problem on the other stages. Hansen is the long breakaway specialist and I can see him fancying it on Stage 2 or 3 - if he gets a silly large lead with the right companions they could stay away to the end and put him in a commanding position. 

Stage 1: Shunyi to Huairou Studio City, 190.5km

Stage 1 is a twisting, winding course that departs from the city of Shunyi and heads east for 70km until it hits the Cat 3 climb of the Shang Pu Zi, which is just 1.3km long at an average of 4.5%, They then double back on themselves until they arrive back at Yukou where they take a right hand turn and head north west to the finish at Huairou Studio City. The hills are too easy and too far out to cause any problems, and although we will probably see an early break from the likes of Champion System's Matt Bramieir, it is sure to end in a sprint finish.

And it should be quite a showdown on the first day, with some top quality sprinters ready to battle it out. So far Paddy Power are the only bookie out with odds, which is to be commended, and they have installed Bouhanni as the 5/2 favourite, with Viviani just behind him at 3/1 and Michael Matthews at 9/2. Then the prices jump up to 12/1 for Petacchi, 18/1 for Veelers and Ferrari and it's 22/1 and bigger the rest. 

Elia Viviani is in great form at the moment, winning the first stage in the Tour of Britain recently and finishing 3rd on the final stage in London. He won a race on the track last week at the Three Days of Aigle and also took a stage in the Criterium de Dauphine this year. He has a very strong leadout with him with Wurf, Dall'Antonio (who was a great leadout man in the Giro) Caruso and Basso who are all experienced heads. I think he has the beating of Bouhani and I would rather be backing him at slightly better odds to complete a hat-trick of stage wins in consecutive years at the Tour of Beijing. 

Bouhanni has had a good year with six victories, including one in Paris Nice and three stages in a row at the Tour Du Poitou Charentes, but that was against a pretty weak field. Most of his better results came earlier in the season though so I am avoiding him at such a short price for this frantic first stage. 

Matthews of course had a good Vuelta, but after his stage win he disappointed on a number of occassions when more was expected of him. I am not interested in backing him until I see how he goes on stage 1, and at just 9/2 he is worth a lay for the top 3 in my opinion. 

Of more interest to me though is Steele Van Hoff at a very big 50/1 - a very powerful sprinter and a great bike handler to boot (remember this in the Tour of Britain?!). He has a powerful Garmin Sharp team with him and they have come to win a stage or two with him. I have taken some 50/1 each way with Paddy Power.

So that's my take on stage one, a main bet on Viviani, a Lay for Top 3 on Matthews and an each way long shot at 50/1 on Van Hoff with Paddy Power.