Tour Méditerranéen - Overall & Stages

Stage 2

Stage 2 - Cadolive to Rousset, 170.6km

Friday 14th February

Friday's stage sees the riders tackle a slightly shorter stage of 170.6km but it is still going to be a tough day in the saddle with two Cat 3 climbs and the HC climb up to the Col Petit Galibier. There is sure to be a selection on the second 3rd Cat climb (which bizarrely, according to the official race guide has no name - just 'Col') and that selection will probably be reduced even further to maybe decide the winner of the stage on the Petit Galibier.

There is 26km still to go from the summit though, so it may regroup somewhat in the fast run-in to the finish in Rousset. Should be a day for the likes of LL Sanchez, Chavanel, Barguil, Betancur and some of the Colombians if it is lit up on the Petite Galibier, but if it comes back together you can't see past yesterday's winner John Degenkolb as he has few rivals who can match his pace in a sprint finish.

 

Stage 3

Stage 3 - Lambesc to St Remy de Provence, 63km

Saturday 15th February (morning)

Stage 3 is quite a strange stage for a professional race, as they are only racing over 63kms - it could be finished in 90 minutes! But this is because they will be doing a time trial in the afternoon over 18kms. Still, the racing should be fast and furious and it should give lower ranked riders a chance to get away for stage glory if the GC men and the TT'ers hold back for the afternoon. They will have two Cat 2 climbs to contend with along the way, the first of which starts more of less from the flag drop and peaks out after only 2.6km!

The second Cat 2 climb starts right after the sprint after 49kms and climbs for 6km - there is then only 8km to go to the finish and the last two kilometres kick up again so it's not a straight forward day for any sprinters. Will be a punchy type rider like Chavanel, Nocentini, Hermans or possibly even Degenkolb if he can hang in there and the hill isn't too steep. 

 

 

Stage 4

Stage 4 - St Remy de Provence to St Remy de Provence, 18.2km

Saturday 15th February (afternoon)

Stage 4 takes place on the Saturday afternoon following the short 63km stage in the morning. It is a relatively short TT at just over 18km but with two hills to get over in the first 10kms it's not going to be easy. I'd like to say what sort of gradient and height those hills are but the official race book is appallingly bad for details and no profile map has any information on heights or gradients.. If I find more details over the next few days I'll add them here though. 

Expect Taylor Phinney to put in a big ride in light of his big showing in San Luis and Dubai, but will it be a little too hilly for him? He has said about his chances "The time trial there is definitely a big goal. It is supposed to be a bit hilly, but I will give it my all regardless and hopefully come away with another big result." Others who should go well are Chavanel, LL Sanchez, Pirazzi and Löfkvist.

 

 

Stage 5

Stage 5 - Bandol to Toulon (Mont Faron), 192.7kms

Sunday 16th February

If the TT will have shaken things up in the GC on Stage 4, Stage 5 will definitely have a major effect on the GC and possibly the overall winner. The climb up to Mont Faron comes at the end of a hard 192.7kms which includes a Cat 2 and 3 climb along the way. But it's the last 15kms or so of this stage that can have a major impact on the GC for many riders - there is first of all that little hill, La Vallette with 179km to go and then with just 5.5kms to go the climb up to the HC summit finish at Mont Faron. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This will be the big battle of the week with the 5.5kms averaging a nasty 9%, with kilometre 1-2 averaging over 11%. It doesn't ease up to the line at all, in fact it is still 9% average for the last kilometre. This is a stage for the like of the Colombians - Duarte, Chalapud, Duque, Chalapud of the Colombia squad and Betancur of AG2R La Mondiale, Fedrigo of FDJ and possibly even the likes of Nocentini, Chavanel and Sanchez. There are sure to be a few wildcards in the mix though given the early point in the season, but it's sure to be an exciting finish to the race. 

**Update - 15/02/2014, 22.30** Steve Cummings put in a superb performance today to win the hilly 18km TT in the afternoon after John Degenkolb had completed a hat-trick of victories in the mornings 63km stage 3. Cummings beat the Austrian neo-pro Riccardo Zoidl by 4" and Sylvain Chavanel by 10" to take the leaders jersey in to the final, pivotal stage which finishes on the summit of Mont Faron over Toulon. 

Cummings victory proved that he is in fantastic shape so early in the season, having followed team-mate Taylor Phinney home in the TT in Dubai, which pushed in to 2nd place on the GC, a position he held until the end. Chavanel pushed him close, but the other likely challenger Luis Leon Sanchez could only finish in 13th, 53" back. There were also very good rides by Jean-Christophe Peruad of AG2R who finished just 15" behind the British rider and Eduardo Sepúlveda who took 5th 34" back. 

It is all set up nicely then for the final stage and the final climb - with three riders within 15" of Cummings he can expect to be attacked on all sides as it gets towards the last 5kms. In fact there are 15 riders within a minute of the lead, but you would have to think the winner will most likely come from the first 5, unless someone pulls off an extraordinary ride. 

So can Cummings hang on? I thought from the start Chavanel and Peraud were two of the hot favourites for this and they are still most definitely in with a chance. Cummings climbing skills wouldn't be one of his strong points and he will be under pressure very early on from IAM, Trek and AG2R. Riccardo Zoidl though is in a fantastic position to take his first stage race as a professional, following some incredible results in 2013. And make no mistake about it, the boy can climb - some of his best results last year were when the roads pointed upwards - 5th in stage 2 of Settimana Coppi e Bartolli behind Ulissi, Rubiano and Cunego, winner of races such as the hilly stage 2 of the Circuit des Ardennes, stage in the Oberösterreichrundfahrt and some great performances in the hills while on the way to overall victory in the Österreich-Rundfahrt-Tour of Austria.

JC Peraud though won this stage by 19" in 2012 on the way to taking 2nd in the overall behind Löfkvist so he clearly likes the climb. Sylvain Chavanel is only 10" back and is capable of riding with the best climbers on his day but I fear that when it gets really agressive and fast towards the climax he may not have the form in his legs to hang on. An interesting candidate waiting in the wings though is Sepúlveda who although 34" back isn't out of it either - it will require him to go early and hard though to try to pull that sort of time back and I don't think his climbing is good enough to have a chance of doing it.

So it should be a fascinating battle for the GC, but right now if I was to pick the most likely winner, it would be a coin toss between Peraud and Zoidl, with Zoidl shading it slightly because of his 11" lead over Peraud.  He may just be able to hang on to Peraud's wheel and take overall victory. Peraud can win the stage and take 2nd overall, Chavanel might just hold on for 3rd ahead of Ludvigsson. Cummings could lose 30"+ tomorrow, but he may also pull out the performance of his life with the yellow jersey on his shoulders, but unfortunately for him I can't see it happening.