Stage 1

Unley to Lyndoch, 145kms

Tuesday 16th January 

So we came out at break even on our first bets of the season, with André Greipel indeed taking a top 3 place and beating Viviani in the matchbet in the process. I thought for about 3 seconds that Greipel would take it, but Sagan is just super-strong, even if it looked like he has been on holidays for the last week around Australia. It's a pretty ominous situation for the rest of the peloton if Sagan is winning his first race of the season, outsprinting the likes of Greipel, Ewan and Viviani.. 

The losing matchbet double was covered by the evens on Greipel to beat Viviani and the half a point profit on Greipel covered the loss on the unfortunate Halvorsen who got a baptism of fire in his first big World Tour race, crashing in the sprint and fracturing his wrist. Amazing from Sagan again, watching him from the air navigating his way through the pack is incredible. Watch how he works his way through the peloton with such confidence and control, especially in the last kilometre/minute of this video below.. He almost crashes in to a retreating rider at 1'45", shortly after giving a Sky rider a friendly shoulder to hold his line.. His bike handling getting him out of trouble in the blink of an eye again.  

 

Nice video from the finish of today's People’s Choice Classic! @tourdownunder @southaustralia #TDU #adelaide #seesouthaustralia pic.twitter.com/lhpR2oxLbZ

— Peter Sagan (@petosagan) January 14, 2018

 

The first stage of this year's TDU is almost identical to stage 1 last year again, with an early climb of Humbug Scrub to tempt out those looking to win the KOM jersey. Once over the top they descend towards Williamstown and the Barossa Valley, where they take in three laps of the finishing circuit through Lyndoch, Sandy Creek and Cockatoo Valley. The finish is perfect for a fast sprint, with a descent for the last 7kms that takes them to a flat last 200m.

Last year Peter Sagan tried to lead out Sam Bennett in the sprint, but Caleb Ewan powered past them in the last 100m, with Danny Van Poppel getting up between them to take 2nd place. I had written that I expect to see a similar finish to this year's stage, with Caleb Ewan duelling it out with Bennett and maybe Elia Viviani this year instead of DVP, but we need to reassess after what we saw and found out at the People's Choice.. 

 

First up, Peter Sagan is clearly in brilliant shape, far better shape than I expected to be honest. Ok, no one is in anywhere close to top condition at this point in the season, but you'd have expected Ewan to be closer than 3rd adter his win in the Crit Championships.. But Ewan got a little lost again and struggled to hit the front. 

Secondly, Bora did a brilliant tactical finish I thought to tee up Sagan on the stealth. For the last few kilometres it looked indeed like Bora were working for Bennett, as they led out the pack, lots of checks behind for where Bennett was, and he was sitting in the box seat about 5th in line of the Bora train. Sagan? Well he was just doing his own thing about 10 riders back, keeping a low profile and watching proceedings.

You could see Mitchelton and Lotto panicking a little and looking at Bora and trying to figure out what was going to happen, when behind, Sagan was stalking Greipel like a shark. He got the breaks, the sea parted and he charged up the middle with just more brute force than anybody else. As it turns out, Bennett is sick and has been for the last week or so, they managed to keep that quiet while making it look like they were all working their asses off for him. A perfect job by the Bora boys.   

So what are they going to do tonight? Well, could it be more double-bluffs from Bora and Sam Bennett isn't as bad as they made out and they once again pull the wool over the peloton's eyes by leading him to victory? It's possible.. Sagan is just 3/1 to win this one with Ladbrokes, and I'm not sure that's a good bet at all.. Caleb Ewan is surely going to go better, Lotto will be a bit more organised, and I think the finish will suit them a bit better too, it will be a bit more straight-forward and less chaotic I think. The odds-against on Ewan is looking a little tempting. 

André Greipel is sure to be there or thereabouts again, he only found the World Champion too good for him in the PC, he had Ewan and Viviani behind him.. I think he will be top 3 again probably, it just depends whether his team-mates can hold on for just a bit longer and release him a bit closer to the line so that Sagan and Ewan have less time to come past him. He needs to go quite late, but still be one of the first to go. 

Elia Viviani did a very strange sprint in the PC, they seemed to get the leadout all wrong.. look at the video above again of the finish and you can see one of his leadout men on the right with about 1'48" gone looking around for Viviani, but he's completely on the other side of the road, a long way back. It almost looks like he wasn't going to sprint, then decided to dive to his left and on to the wheel of Battaglin of LottoNL. He quickly passed him and was finishing very fast, but he was too far back. He might get closer this time with a better leadout, but can he beat Greipel in a matchbet? I still think Greipel might have the edge. 

Simone Consonni sprinted well too, coming from a long way back to take 5th, despite almost being put in the barriers by Phil Bauhaus with about 75m to go, the same moment that saw Halvorsen get pushed in to the barriers. Halvorsen's team-mate took a much better line, taking Sagan's wheel with 50m to go, but he just couldn't come past him. He still finished a very respectable 6th in some illustrious company on his first World Tour race. 

Carlos Barbero and Jasha Sutterlin both appeared to be sprinting for Movistar, but they finished 9th and 11th, and Enrico Battaglin and Mark Renshaw made up the rest of the top 10.

I think though that unless there is a crash or a serious upset, It is hard to see anyone outside of the top 4 in the PC winning this stage 1. I think Ewan should do better this time and he might well get off the mark here, and I expect Viviani, Sagan and Greipel to be fighting it out for the podium spots, Sagan possibly more determined than the rest to try to secure bonus seconds. 

As for the overall, I have been thinking about Nathan Haas and the fact that he tweeted a picture of himself at a Chiropractor a few days ago. It may not have been significant, but if he is suffering from a back compaint then he might not be 100% here. He is evens against Jay McCarthy in the matchbets for this stage so I checked the result of the PC.. Haas finished dead last, 3'31" down, whereas McCarthy was 24th. I think the evens on McCarthy has to be backed tonight and the 4/5 on him their GC matchbet also has to be backed, 5pts on that. 

One final little tit-bit, Durianrider, that YouTuber who rides with the pros when they are out training on the course said that Michael Valgren was absolutely flying and looking very strong.. I've had a fun 0.25pts e/w on him at 250/1 just for an intertest. The video of him riding with Katusha though also showed that whom I think was Nathan Haas was training with what looked like a back support/brace of some sort over his team kit, maybe he has back issues alright? We'll soon see.. but if he has, he may sit the sprint out in stage 1 and see how he goes on stage 2 to Stirling instead. 

Play the Zweeler Tour Down Under Fantasy Game here . 

 

Recommendations:

3pts win on Caleb Ewan at 11/10 

 

Matchbets

4pts win on McCarthy to beat Haas at Evens with Ladbrokes

Consonni to beat Bahaus - 2pts at evens with Ladbrokes

Greipel to beat Viviani and Ewan to beat Sagan - 2pts on the double at 15/8 with Bet365

 

 

Stage 2

Unley to Stirling, 148.6kms

Wednesday 17th January

A superb sprint from Greipel then in the first stage, I knew I should have stuck with him.. very annoying. He was very very impressive to come out of Ewan's almost non-existant slipstream and charge right past him in the last 50m. Ewan held on for 2nd, pipping Sagan to take the match-bet at least. Viviani was a lot closer this time and for a brief moment with about 50m to go it looked like he might actually take the stage. Consonni sprinted well again to pip Bauhaus in the other matchbet, so despite the two big bets losing we didn't come out too far behind, just 1.25pts. 

What was surprising though, and most annoying was Nathan Haas sprinting to 7th place to bust the matchbet with McCarthy who was back in 17th. And not only that, but he 'won' the bunch sprint for the intermediate bonus second ahead of McCarthy out on the road, showing his intentions for the race. Got that one all wrong then, maybe we'll get a chance to trade out a little of the GC matchbet, but I'm not sure anyone will offer the matchbets now the race is on. Sagan is also after picking up 4 bonus seconds and sits in 4th in the GC now. 

Stage 2 is similar to stages in 2015 and 2016 that went from Unley to Stirling, but the route to Stirling's finishing circuit is different. Unley to Stirling is a very popular route for the TDU, and Stirling has been used as a finish for stages almost every single year. Unley is a suburb of Adelaide, and after some 6kms of a neutral zone they hit the course proper at Walkley Heights and after just 12.8kms they hit the only KOM of the day at Tea Tree Gully (2.5kms at 6.3%).

They enter the final circuit after 75kms and after 85kms they pass the finish line for the first of three circuits of 21.1kms, going over the climb to the finish line in Stirling a total of four times.The climb up to Stirling is in two parts with the total distance from the bottom of the climb being about 8kms. The first part is about 5kms long, then they descend for around 1.5kms. The final kick though is 1.3kms long at an average of 7.1%, but the gradient average is deceptive as there are several steep sections which hit 12-14% around half way up. It eases slightly about 100m from the line to just 2.8% but by then the winner is more than likely to be ahead.

Five out of the top 6 from 2016 are here, with McCarthy, Ulissi, Dennis, Wyss, and Bevin taking each other on again. Ulissi of course won this stage back in 2014 ahead of Gerrans and Evans, with Richie Porte back in 6th. That was the year that Ulissi was done for Salbutemol abuse though we can't forget. It's likely we'll see most of these guys in the mix again this year, with McCarthy and Ulissi two of the favourites to take victory today. 

Jay McCarthy looked strong in the Road Nationals, sprinting to 2nd, almost catching the winner Edmonson. He was also sprinting against Haas in the intermediate sprint in stage 1, so he is clearly feeling good and ambitious. He will have the support of a very strong Bora team for this finish, with Oss, Bednar, Selig, Kennaugh and of course Peter Sagan to help him in the last 2kms. If he has Sagan leading him out to the last 200m he has a big chance of taking the stage again, we know he has the kick to do it and is in good form. 

Peter Sagan could even go for this stage too, I guess it all depends on how he really is feeling and if he thinks he can stay close enough to Porte on Willunga to win the GC with time bonuses from this and other stages to come, but I think it will be all in for McCarthy tonight. I think he is still capable of a top 10 if he keeps sprinting, even after dropping McCarthy off. 

It was only a bike throw that separated McCarthy from 2014 winner Diego Ulissi in 2016, with McCarthy getting the early jump but Ulissi almost nailing him on the line. Ulissi was out battling for intermediate points on stage 1 too, so he clearly has GC ambitions too, it's likely he will be one of the main protagonists here again. He has Rui Costa to help him be in the right position and the finishing kick to be a winner here. 

One of their big rivals, like today, is going to be Nathan Haas by the looks of things. Haas has a result of 85th marked against him the last time up here in 2016, but that was because he was caught up in the crash with 500m to go that took down Gerrans and Thomas amongst others. He was quite a way back though, not sure he'd have been contesting the win. He is clearly in good form though and can't be ruled out, he'll need to get bonus seconds on this stage I think to maintain his GC hopes. 

Richie Porte and Rohan Dennis are sure to be there or thereabouts too, but neither really have the kick to win this, I don't expect Porte to lose any time here, Dennis might lose a few seconds at worst. Simon Gerrans of old would have had a big chance here too (he was 2nd behind Ulissi in 2014) but he looks like he just doesn't have it any more. Maybe he'll get a new lease of life with BMC, but I'm not sure. I think he'll be working to keep Porte in a good position. 

The Izagirre brothers have chances, but it might be a bit too short and punchy for them, but Ion Izagirre has won the GP Miguel Indurain in 2016 on an uphill finish like this and Gorka Izagirre did win that stage in last year's Giro to Peschici, when he out-battled Visconti up the hill with the peloton snapping at their heels. Gorka also finished 3rd on this stage in 2015, won by his Movistar team-mate JJ Lobato, so he has previous form here. I'm not sure either of them will be good enough to win this though, or I think we'd have seen them win more races like this in the past.

There does seem to be some very strange confidence in Ion Izagirre since yesterday's stage, he has tumbled from something like 66/1 for the overall to just 11/2 with Paddy Power, and that was after a sprint stage which made no difference to the GC. It is probably that they have taken a smallish bet on him from a marked account and have shit the bed, it's a hard one to understand. We'll soon see if it was inspired or insane. 

Carlos Barbero could be a dark horse here, even though his odds are a lot shorter than I expected them to be at just 9/1 with 365. He won a stage in the Vuelta a Burgos last year over almost the same distance and with an uphill finish, beating Gianni Moscon and Alaphilippe in the process. Movistar placed 1st and 3rd on this stage in 2015 and have no one for the GC here really, so it could be all in for them for this stage. If I can get 12 or 16/1 I'll back him each-way. 

What about Egan Bernal? It might be a bit too short and punchy for him, but he is clearly a special talent and you couldn't rule him out. I think it might be a tad frantic and crazy for him though and he might get shuffled back in the last 500m as the likes of Haas, Ulissi and McCarthy fight for wheels. 

Reuben Fernandez, Sam Oomen, Dani Moreno, George Bennett and Robert Gesink are others who could go well, as could Danilo Wyss and Paddy Bevin who were 4th and 6th in 2016. If Enrico Battaglin gets a good run through he could have a chance, he seems to be sprinting ok and is good at an uphill finish. He'll need Bennett and Gesink to tow him to about the 100m to go mark though and he'll have to give it a career best I think, something he might not be capable of in the 3rd week of January. Michael Valgren could be another dark horse here too, his punchy style has seen him almost win Amstel Gold Race up the Cauberg, as similar sort of climb to this, and apparently he is flying.. at 100/1, why not. 

Simone Consonni has been sprinting well too in the last two races, it will be interesting to see if he can sprint uphill too. Anthony Roux of FDJ apparently has his sights set on this stage, that is, according to his team mate Jussi Veikkanen. Veikkanen says that their target this week is to get as high a GC placing for Georg Preidler as they can, but that Davide Cimolai isn't in great shape yet.. Roux, on the other hand, he says "I can only say that Anthony Roux is very motivated by this stage!". He's 100/1 if you want to believe that.

Sagan is very short at just 13/8 or so, but he probably holds the key to the stage - does he go for it, or does he work for his Aussie team-mate who is going for GC.. I think it's the latter and I fancy Jay McCarthy to go well, he should be top 3 I think so is a 'bet to nothing' maybe at 9/2 with Ladbrokes. I'm also going to have a go on Carlos Barbero, Valgren and Battaglin at bigger prices for an interest.  

 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Jay McCarthy at 9/2 with Ladbrokes

0.5pts each-way on Carlos Barbero - look to try to get better than the 9/1 with Bet365 - PP are 12/1 right now, but are win only at the moment.. if they go each-way I'll take that. 

0.25pts each-way on Enrico Battaglin at 80/1 with various

0.25pts each-way on Michael Valgren at 100/1 with Bet365

 

Matchbets

Valgren to beat Simon Clarke - 2pts at 11/8 with Bet365

Ulissi to beat Impey and Battaglin to beat Roux - 2pts at 6/5

 

 

 

 

 

Stage 3

Glenelg to Victor Harbour, 146.5kms 120kms

Thursday 18th January 

It was announced just this morning that stage 3 was going to be shortened by 28kms due to the extreme temperatures that are expected in the area. The total distance is now 120kms, and will finish with just one lap of the final circuit instead of 3 as originally planned. The new profile is down below, thanks to @laflammerouge16.

Stage 3 is also practically a replica of stage 3 in 2017, starting in Glenelg and finishing in Victor Harbour, but the route in between is slightly different and they end with just three one lap of the finishing circuit and not 4 like last year. The stage is now just 120kms long, but they take in the climb of Pennys Hill Road, rather than Sellicks Hill as last year. 

This is a stage I have fond memories of from last year, landing the 1-2-3 with Ewan winning for me at a massively over-priced 12/1 (bookies got it all wrong last year, over-estimating how tough the finishing circuit is), Sagan 2nd at 6/1 e/w and Bonnifazio 3rd at 20/1 e/w. It will be hard to follow that! Maybe I should have remembered how well Ewan climbed on this stage last year to stay in contention when weighing up the candidates for stage 2...

The climb of Pennys Hill Road takes them on a detour through the McLaren Vale vineyards, but there should be no hangover for the sprinters, it's not too tough at just 2.8kms at 7.6% average. From there the rest of the stage is pretty straightforward and of the four times in recent years the race has finished in Victor Harbour it has always finished in a sprint, with André Greipel winning in 2012 and 2014, Gerrans in 2016 and Caleb Ewan winning last year ahead of Sagan. 

They enter the finishing circuit with around 100kms gone and pass the finish line after 107kms before going out to do just one lap of the mostly flat 13km circuit. One thing to bear in mind though is the route will be buffeted by wind along the way, possibly causing splits and problems for the peloton.

The finish of this stage is quite tricky - as you see on the right, there is a sharp right hander with 600m to go, then a left hander with 500m to go, and a roundabout on the finishing straight about 200m from the line. You will need to be in the first 4 or 5 through those two tight bends to have a chance of victory. I was worried about Ewan last year and thought the skills of Sagan might just swing it in his favour, but in the end Ewan took the stage comfrotably again, with Sagan chasing him home. 

What about last night then? Caleb Ewan outsprinting all the so-called puncheurs for the stage with a superb performance. He was 14/1 to win last night, so was clearly fancied by some/feared by the bookies, I didn't see that coming at all. But then again he's as light as a feather and has won hilly stages in races in the past from time to time. Impey finishing in 2nd was a shock though, but again, he has form here, I backed him in 2015 only for him to finish 2nd that year too to Lobato. 

McCarthy did the business though to get up to land the e/w for us, I think he must have given Sagan a shout in the last 20m to let him know he was coming, as Sagan seemed to ease up and let him through to take 2nd and the bonus seconds.. It was kind of what I predicted would happen, I just didn't expect the two Mitchelton-Scott guys to be ahead of them!

Nathan Haas got up for 5th and Elia Viviani showed just how well he is going too by sprinting to 6th, that's three top 6 finishes now so far for him Down Under. Gorka Izagirre, Pozzovivo and LL Sanchez were three climbers next, and our man Carlos Barbero completed the top ten, although I didn't get a chance to back him as Paddy Power never went each-way betting on the race, the arseholes. Ulissi was surprisingly far back in 13th, one place behind Roux who did indeed go ok on this finish as he hoped he would. Michael Valgren comfortably won the matchbet with Clarke at 11/8 so we ended up just 0.35pts down, no major damage done. 

On to Stage 3 then, and it's back to the sprinters. Given what we have seen so far, it's hard to see beyond Greipel, Ewan, Sagan, Viviani, Consonni and maybe Bahaus, Haas, Battaglin or Lawless. Hard to see anyone else getting in on the act really.  

We have Caleb Ewan at 6/4, Peter Sagan at 5/2, André Greipel at 4/1 and Elia Viviani at 7/1.. with the next closest Jay McCarthy at 22/1. Caleb is quite short, every pun intended, at just 6/4, seeing as he failed to win the two flat sprints that he has taken part in this week. Yes, he won last night, but that wasn't a full-gas, flat sprint, head-to-head against Greipel, it was his lightweight frame and fitness that gave him the edge once he got to the last 100m. 

Peter Sagan comfortably beat him in the People's Choice, but was just pipped by him in stage 1. You'd have expected Sagan to take the likes of Ewan and Impey in an uphill sprint normally, but the fact he wasn't able to puts me off him at just 5/2. Greipel is probably another 'bet-to-nothing' at 4/1, he's sure to be in the top 3, but the only one that offers a little bit of interest to me is Elia Viviani at 7/1..

Viviani was also there in the finale yesterday on the hill to Stirling, after being delivered there brilliantly by Morkov and Devenyns. Just as he was about to make a move though he was squeezed up and lost momentum - he got going again but it was too late and he ended up taking 6th on the day, not a bad result at all. He also sprinted a lot better in stage 1 than he did in the People's Choice to take 4th, I think he might just be able to sneak on to the podium tonight. 

In matchbets, I'm going to stick with Barbero who should beat Sutterlin and Battaglin over Navardauskas, and I think Consonni is capable of beating Bauhaus again too. 

 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Elia Viviani at 7/1 with various 

 

Match bets

Barbero to beat Sutterlin and Battaglin to beat Navardauskas - 2pts at 13/8 with Bet365

Consonni to beat Bauhaus - 2pts at 5/6 with Bet365

 

 

Stage 4

Norwood to Uraidla, 128.2kms

Friday January 19th

The wind was so loud last night it woke me at 3.30am, thirty minutes before I had planned to wake. I checked Twitter, and there was just 6kms left in the stage..! And was I glad I got up to watch it as Elia Viviani powered to victory, catching a sloppy Ewan and Mitchelton-Scott off guard in the last 100m. It looked like QuickStep had got the leadout all wrong as two were going up the right side of the pack with less than a kilometre to go and Viviani and one other (I'm guessing Sabatini) were on the other side of the road, about 15th in line. I was thinking he was too far back, but was dropped off on the tails of the leaders to do his own thing with 200m or so to go. 

It looks like Ewan might just have eased up a little to try to let Edmonson win and in doing so let the door open for Viviani to come flying past him in the last 50m. Sagan just wasn't fast enough again, it was strange from Bora, they were all over the place, and Sam Bennett, who took the intermediate sprint's last bonus second to stop Impey getting it didn't get in a blow in the sprint either. 

It was a great sprint from Phil Bauhaus also, pipping Ewan for 2nd place, but it meant it bust our matchbet with Consonni who actually did very well to finish 4th. There was no sign of Greipel, he struggled badly in the heat and he said that he just had no power in his legs. Simon Clarke sprinted to 6th for EF Cannondale, a strange result as well. Barbero and Battaglin did the business though for us in the matchbet double, and coupled with the 7/1 on Viviani we landed a 10pt profit to put us nicely ahead now for the week. 

Last year this stage went from Norwood to Campbelltown, this year it's Norwood to Uraidla, the finish being a mere 15kms from the start point. A lot of the route is very familiar, with the landmarks like Cudlee Creek, Mt Torrens and Birdwood all along the way again. The main part of the course on the loop north-east of Uraidla is undulating but pretty straightforward. They climb gently more or less for the first 80kms until Lenswood and then take a faster, steeper route back towards the start in Norwood, but just before Rostrevor with just less than 20kms to go they turn left and start climbing towards the finish. 

With 13kms to go they start on the climb of Norton Summit Road, a tough little climb at 5% for 5.8kms and they fight out the KOM points with still 8kms to go. The road flattens a little for 2kms, before kicking up again for another 2kms, 1km of which is around 8%. This might be an opportunity for the stronger climbers teams to make a big reduction on the categorised part of the climb and then tee up their leaders for a big attack on the final steep section to see if they can get away and stay away to the finish. The last 3kms are all downhill to Uraidla, so anyone who has a gap of 15-20" might just be able to hang on. We could see a small group of 10-15 fight out the finish.

Some are saying that this could be a really big stage in the race and could even be a race changer - I don't think so.. It is a tough climb, but it's only 5% after all. That Marmite guy Durian Rider filmed himself climbing this climb with the Katusha team and it didn't look all that hard at all, nothing for World Tour riders. But how much of an impact it will make on the outcome of race will all depend on how hard they race it of course. I can't see BMC losing control here, and in fact I think they will take control on the climb and push a hard pace to thin out the number of rivals to Porte in the final few kilometres.

I do think though that there may only be 30-40 riders coming to the top of the first part of the climb, and that could be 10-15 by the time they are over the final short, steep section. As it's a downhill finish, then you are probably looking for the stronger guys who can hang on on the climb and sprint at the end.. And the question is, how many of the sprinters can hang in there? Can Peter Sagan? If so, then he probably will win it.. But 5/1 favourite? It's a bit short. Can Caleb Ewan hang in there like on the climb to Stirling? If so, then he probably wins. Greipel is probably the least likely to make it to the finish, so I'm counting him out of it for sure.. He really struggled with the heat today too. 

Daryl Impey is clearly going well and is pushing for all bonus seconds etc, he has GC ambitions by the looks of things.. And what better way to put the pressure on Porte ahead of Willunga than to take the stage and the 10 bonus seconds with it (he already has a 6" advantage over Porte from stage 2). He will have Edmonson, Hayman and the rest of the team working their socks off for him to keep him in position, but he may find himself isolated at the finish. 

Jay McCarthy is a big danger too, based on his performances so far in the Nationals and the opening stages.. he is chasing every bonus point and should be comfortable on the first part of the climb, and if on a good day he should stay with the punchy guys on the steep final part. If he gets to the finish with a reduced group then he has a big chance in a sprint of taking the stage. 

Nathan Haas is almost the same sort of profile as McCarthy, and lo-and-behold he's the same price as McCarthy at 7/1. Can Haas hang in there on the climb? I think BMC and Bora might be doing their best to shed him, particularly on the steep final bit. He will have Jhonathan Restrepo and Thiago Machado to look after him, both have been riding well in the services of their team leader this week, trying to nick bonus seconds out of the bunch. But I wonder is that because Haas is worried about his form and knows he won't take the sprints and is just concerned about every second he might lose.

If Haas isn't feeling it, Restrepo could well be a dark horse for this stage, he might attack on the climb, they all watch Haas for a counter-attack, BMC ride tempo to just keep Richie in contention for tomorrow and he might just get away. He has been pretty lively this week, and at 50/1 he's worth a small interest I think. 

I don't think Porte or Dennis will be winning it, but the way Porte rode away from everyone on Paracombe last year, I wouldn't be surprised to see him ride away from them all again on the final 2kms section. He said today that he thinks today's stage will be important, but he feels he's going as well this year as he was last, an ominous warning to the other's ahead of Willunga. If it comes to a reduced bunch sprint though, neither of them will win.

Diego Ulissi was disappointing on the hill to Stirling, he would have expected better than 13th place. He just wasn't in the right place to contest the sprint, he might not be anywhere near his best, which could see him ruled out of this finish too. But he is a quality rider and with the help of Rui Costa, he might just be able to hang in there. Rui Costa also isn't without hope, he should be comfortable on the climb, he goes well early in the season, and he hasn't got a bad kick on him in a reduced bunch of climbers. At 22/1 he offers a little interest. 

Luis Leon Sanchez, Dani Moreno, Ion and Gorka Izagirre and Domenico Pozzoivo should all be able to handle the climbing required here with ease, but one that I'm looking forward to seeing in full flow is Egan Bernal. He finished 25th on Stirling, but that charge uphill isn't really his thing, this could be more like it, and we might see him try his luck as a leg-warmer ahead of Willunga. Michael Valgren is another that I have my eye on, he's capable of staying with the climbers, as long as it really doesn't explode in to a test of the best. If he can stay with them, he's capable of a late attack that could take it. 40/1 isn't great though, I was hoping for 66/1 or bigger. 

This really is a conundrum of a stage - it is an unknown for the riders, and it's an unknown for us. Will the GC challengers go all in today to try to get a sufficient gap on Porte ahead of Willunga? Will Porte just mark them all and destroy them tomorrow? That's what I think will happen, but amongst those that he marks and stays with, there will be a stage winner. It could come from a late attack on that steep climb for 1km, someone, or a small group could stay away to the finish. Or it could be a sprint from around 20-30 riders. I really can't call any with confidence, so am going to have a stab at a few at big prices and just look forward to Porte destroying them all tomorrow on Willunga..

 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Rui Costa at 22/1 with Will Hill

0.5pts each-way on Jhonathan Restrepo at 50/1 with Bet365

0.25pts each-way on Egan Bernal at 40/1 with Bet365

1pt win on Jay McCarthy at 7/1 with Will Hill

Matchbets

Jay McCarthy to beat Impey - 3pts at 8/11

Restrepo to beat Slagter - 3pts at 5/6

 

 

Stage 5

McLaren Vale to Willunga Hill, 151.5kms

Saturday 20th January

Well that was a pretty interesting finish to the stage wasn't it? Sagan, Sagan, Sagan. Best rider of his generation, possibly one of the best of all time. He absolutely bossed that stage again, comfortably hanging in there on the climbs and even going on the attack on one of those rolling uphill sections inside the last 3kms. He attacked, he strung them out, he got back in line and then just outsprinted Daryl Impey on the run to the line. Sagan said in his post-race interview that they were all there for McCarthy in the GC and that he didn't think he'd be able to hang in there with the climbers to win the overall. But the way he's riding here, I wouldn't put it past him now.

But also, if he was here to work for McCarthy for the GC, then why was he not looking for McCarthy and leading him out in the sprint to try to get some bonus seconds?? He was just behind him, was 5th after all, maybe he should have tried towing him to the line instead. But Sagan sniffed a stage win given the opposition I guess, and maybe even thinks deep-down that he might just be able to stick within 20" of Porte and take the GC with maybe the help of some bonus seconds on the final sprint stage. 

Impey was impressive too and is very much in the hunt for the overall win now too, he is one that is capable of staying close to Porte, possibly even fighting it out for the minor placings. He sits 12" ahead of Porte as it stands though, so it will take him finishing in 2nd or 3rd with a small deficit I think in order for him to stop Porte from taking this race, I'd make him about 4/6 now to win, will be interesting to see how the bookies price him, McCarthy, Impey and Sagan up.

Porte did show himself a little today, but as I expected, BMC just looked to take the sting out of any attacks on the Norton Road climb, with Simon Gerrans doing a brilliant job at the front for the majority of the climb. Porte did poke and prod a little bit but I think he realised it was pointless really as they were never going to stay away given that run-in. 

There were also good rides from LL Sanchez in 3rd, he is now 4th overall and a danger I think to Porte given he has a 4" gap on him on the GC.. If he stays with Porte on Willunga he could well outsprint him and take the overall. Ulissi let his e/w backers down by finishing 4th, but he is also in the GC running for sure now, as he sits in 5th on the same time as Porte, if he stays with him on the climb, he will probably win the stage and the overall. Jay McCarthy is still in with a shot too given he has 5" on Porte. And there are still loads of guys who are going ok who could still win it, like the Izagirre's, Pozzovivo, Gesink, Bennett, Costa and Latour to name a few. But it will take a monumental effort to get away and beat Porte here as we know. 

So all to play for then, and on to the Queen stage at Willunga.. If it aint broke, why fix it? This seems to be the motto for the TDU with most stages and editions and none more so than the queen stage to Willunga Hill, which once again is identical to previous years. 

Stage 5 is the ever-important and ever-popular stage to Willunga Hill, which always plays a part in deciding the finishing positions of the race. Richie Porte sure loves it up here and is going for an incredible fourth win in a row on the hill after demolishing the field again up here last year.  

It's the usual course, starting in McLaren Vale and doing three laps of the left circuit of 38kms, passing three times through Willunga at the base of Willunga Hill. With 35kms to go they start up Willunga Hill for the first time, where support riders will start to put the hammer down to thin out the peloton and start putting some at the back in the red. 

Willunga Hill is 3kms long at an average of 7%, starting at the big gum tree on the left hand side of the road. The first part of the climb is the steepest, averaging over 8%, with parts over 10%. After that the road settles down a little bit to average around 6% as it winds its way up the hill at a pretty steady gradient.

They know they've reached the top when they pass the large crown painted on the road. It doesn't really ease up until the last 50m when they turn left on to the finishing straight. Richie Porte holds the Strava KOM on the climb which he he picked up in 2015, (or Pitchie R as he calls himself on Strava), flying up the hill in just 6'39". Who'd bet against him making it four-in-a-row this year?

Richie Porte has claimed that he felt sick the night before yesterday's stage and "felt empty, wasn't feeling great at all" during the stage.. yet he seemed comfortable enough to make Gerro and Scotson drill it up the climb and even do a little attacking and chased down Sagan. So if that's him feeling a little ill, and he's better tonight, then the others better watch out and that evens that he is available at will look like the bet of the year. On the other hand, if he is feeling ill and is feeling empty today too, he might be in for a tough day in the saddle. 

One thing to bear in mind though with regards to how much Porte is likely to win by is that there will be a wind blowing today, and it will be a headwind on the latter parts of the climb. This might force him to leave his attack a little later than the usual point that he goes at, which may mean he doesn't win by as much. It also means that the chasers will have a little advantage over him if they can work together and may not lose too much time. 

Nathan Haas struggled really badly with the heat last night, he said:  "I didn't actually know I was in a bike race in the end. I just had my director yelling at me to stay in the cars. I didn't know where I was." He lost 54" and with it any chance of a podium place. Also looks like the McCarthy Vs Haas GC bet is a winner, I'll take credit that it was a back problem which caused him to struggle in the heat.. :-)

Koen de Kort also reportedly said that after going back to the cars to get bottles for team-mates he suffered a nose-bleed, seems a lot of guys are really struggling with the heat.. Adam Hansen, as the riders union rep has said that he has been abused and screamed at by other riders saying that they shouldn't be riding in that heat, but as one Spanish rider put it apparently, "If you don't like the heat, don't start your season at the TDU!!". The good news for the riders though is that temperatures are forecast to dip to around 29 degrees for tonight's stage, a far more tolerable level. 

Can Daryl Impey stay close enough to Porte? He says that he is feeling good, he obviously is, and Porte aside, I'd fancy him to be one of the first home. On Willunga in 2014, Impey finished 5th behind Porte, 14" down, with Gesink, Gerro and Ulissi ahead of him. In 2015 he finished 12th behind Porte, but was 28" down. In 2016 he finished 33rd, 54" down on Porte. Last year he finished 3'31" behind Porte on Willunga.. maybe he had an issue last year, I can't remember, but his times have been getting progressively worse as he's gotten older, whereas Porte has been getting better.. I honestly can't see him staying within 30" of Porte and could well slide off the podium. 

Jay McCarthy looks to be in good form and covered the moves well last night, I think he could come home in the top 3 or 4 here, but won't be enough to dislodge Porte from the win. It could well see him take a podium spot though as I would put him on the same level as the likes of Ulissi, Gesink and Sancez and has the small advantage over them. 

Luis Leon Sanchez looks in good shape too, but was 20" behind the likes of McCarthy last year and was 40" off of Porte, and in 2016 he was 38" down.  38-40" is a lot of time to make up one a rider on his favourite climb, unless Porte is indeed ill. He should finish with the likes of Ulissi and McCarthy though I think, so we could have a situation where if Ulissi takes 4" for 3rd, they could be on the same time.. I don't think Diego Ulissi is capable of staying with Porte on this climb either, but he has a good chance of winning from the small sprint, it could well see him leapfrog on to the podium, so the 20/1 he is with Corals could be worth a small each-way. 

And what about Peter Sagan? Can he hang in there? I wasn't sure about his form and he looked like he ran out of gas (or let McCarthy through for the bonus seconds) on Stirling, but he was superb last night in controlling the finish of that race, it was almost like something out of a Northern Classic with the rolling hills on the run-in to the line and Sagan attacking and watching everything. But Willunga is a different matter altogether and I think he will struggle.

Last year he lost 6'41" on Willunga, but the only other time he did the TDU, back in 2010, he finished 4th in the company of Alejandro Valerde, Cadel Evans and Luis Leon. If he rides like that tonight, he wins the whole thing. He says he is here for McCarthy, and I think this time he is telling the truth. Of course, he will try to hang in there as long as he can, but he could well find the going too tough when the attacks start and he might have to just try to come home in his own time and hope that is enough to keep him in touching distance ahead of the final stage where he could snag bonus seconds. 

Robert Gesink and George Bennett are two for LottoNL-Jumbo who could have a small chance still, they both seem to be going well, but can you see either of them riding away from Porte and the rest? Same goes for Domenico Pozzovivo, Rui Costa, Brendan Canty and the two Izagirres. The only other guy I am remotely excited about watching is Egan Bernal, it will be the first chance we get to see him stretch his legs in anger in the World Tour. Will he be able to stay with Porte? It's possible, he's a very fast, punchy rider, and if it came to a sprint he'd probably beat Porte. And even if he can't stay with Porte, there is a possibility he can get away from the rest of the pack and go in pursuit of Porte to possibly take a podium spot. 

Jhonathan Restrepo and Tiago Machado are two more who could go ok here, Restrepo had to sacrifice himself to try to keep Haas in the race yesterday, a waste as it turned out as Haas was on his knees. Maybe he'll get a chance to ride his own race today now and could be a dark horse. But I'm going to give him a skip I think. 

So it's maybe not as straightforward as it looked a few days ago, the 'illness' of Porte and the headwind on the climb may just neutralise him a little bit. But I think he is still going to be too good for these guys and is the most likely winner. Jay McCarthy, Diego Ulissi and Luis Leon could well be fighting it out for the minor placings and the overall podium, but I'm hoping Egan Berrnal will upset the applecart and get involved in the finish here too.  

 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Egan Bernal at 20/1 with Bet365

6pts win on Richie Porte at 8/13 with Ladbrokes

 

Matchbets

Impey to beat Sagan, Izagirre to beat Moreno and Porte to beat Bennett - 2pts at 7/4 with 365

Rui Costa to beat Dennis - 3pts at 5/6

Gesink to beat Earle and Canty to beat Hamilton - 2pts at 6/4

 

Stage 6

King William Road, Adelaide, 90kms

Sunday 21st January 

Superb from Porte last night again, but superb from Impey also, where did he pull that ride from? Looking at his rides here in the last 3-4 years it didn't look possible that he could stay within 8" of Porte in full flow, but he did, taking the ochre jersey on countback, having finished higher in more stages than Porte. It is a galling way for Porte to lose the race and a galling way to lose a bet! But the headwind seemed to be the problem, Impey had some shelter from Bernal and McCarthy and was able to jump past them in the last 200m to take the second place and the bonus. 

Ulissi is also going to miss out on the podium by just 4", he could only finish 7th in a little group of five that was led home by Tom-Jelte Slagter, with Slagter instead landing the 3rd spot in a big shock, he was 100/1 before the race started and probably 100/1 for last night too. There was good ride from Egan Bernal to finish 6th on such as stage, he tried to go after Porte and McCarthy but was left out in the wind for too long and struggled.. with another few years experience he may well ride it like Impey and come later. 

And what about Dries Devenyns?! 4th on the stage, where did that come from?? A superb ride from the QuickStep man, he's now 5th overall. The Porte bet won and the matchbets treble landed at 7/4, but there were disappointing rides from two of the fancied runners in Costa and Canty to lose their matchbets. We ended up with a small 1.2pt profit though, but can wave goodbye to the Porte bet for the overall.. 

Just like stage 5, stage 6 is unchanged from last year, the final stage, the final chance to steal bonus seconds for anyone in the hunt for the Ochre jersey. Twenty laps of a 4.5kms circuit that rolls up and down the little hill up War Memorial Drive to the KOM on Montefiore Hill and climbs up King Willam Road to the finish. The road is wide and smooth and slopes up to the line, so suits the lighter, powerful sprinters like Caleb Ewan who took this stage for the last two years running. 

A wide open betting heat, not what we'd have expected before the Tour started, with Ewan a huge looking 9/4 compared to the odds-on he was in the first sprint. I was temped to back him at that price, but with the team probably looking after Impey to get him home, I'm worried he might be left to his own devices a little. 

Elia had a perfect opportunity in the last sprint, and capitalised for us, he's not 7/1 this time though, a far skinnier 9/4. Quick Step do look like they are getting their act together, if they can just all stay together in the finale this time I think he has a great chance to take a second win. 

André Greipel struggled really badly in the heat last time around, he is sure to go better this time. But the accumulated effects of the heat and the hard racing yesterday up Willunga might just have taken the edge off him. I don't know if Sagan will be fast enough in this flat-out sprint, and Bauhaus, Consonni and the rest will be fighting it out for 5th to 10th. 

I'm going in again on Elia to see if he can repeat his skillful finish of stage 3, and having a clip at the matchbet treble as well to try to finish on a high. 

 

Recommendations 

2pts win on Elia Viviani at 9/4 with 365

 

Match Bets

Viviani to beat Greipel, Ewan to beat Sagan and Minali to beat Renshaw - 3pts on the treble at 2/1