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- Published on Monday, 27 April 2015 23:46
Tour de Yorkshire
May 1st - May 3rd 2015
After the magnificent spectacle that was the Tour de France in Yorkshire last July, cycling fans up north must be pinching themselves that a three-day event that draws some world class riders back to Yorkshire has appeared on the calendar this year. Backed by the ASO, it has been given a 2.1 status by the UCI and attracts international talent as well as a selection of local pro squads.
This is only going to be a short preview as I don't have a whole lot of time this week and I'm focusing on Romandie and trying to prepare for my Giro previews too, lots to do there! Don't miss out on that, subscribe now before I close subscriptions off, I am probably going to limit it to 50 subscribers and I've had a very positive take-up so far.
There are a few interesting points about the race though, one of course is that Bradley Wiggins will ride in his first race away from Team Sky, I wonder how he'll cope in a little rented caravan compared to the Death Star Sky bus.. But knowing Wiggins he will have negotiated a massive team bus in to the deal! Team Wiggins also have Owain Doull and a bunch of talented young Brits who will be keen to impress the boss.
The other big story is the return of Marcel Kittel from almost three months off due to a virus he suffered after returning from the Tour Down Under. It hit him before he went to Qatar and he suffered really badly out there (right), forcing him to take a lot of time off to recover, as the team doctor said, there was nothing he could take for it, it was just about resting and recovering. Despite not riding for 77 days and the route being anything but flat, he has surprisingly been installed as the 4/1 favourite with some bookies, and a frankly insane even money favourite with Skybet. It would be a very brave or stupid man who will take that price.
There are a selection of world class riders here too, including one of the men-of-the-classics, Greg Van Avermaet, who comes here with probably the best team in the race, with Samuel Sanchez, Ben Hermans, Jempy Drucker, Dylan Theuns and Rick Zabel also lining up. Thomas Voeckler leads Europcar with Cyril Gautier, and Team Sky come with a pretty decent line-up too with Ben Swift leading the line and second favourite to take the victory here. He has Bernie Eisel, Andrew Fenn, Chris Sutton and Ian Boswell alongside and should go well.
The pro-conti teams will make their mark though for sure - the likes of Cult, led by Russell Downing, NFTO with Ian Bibby, who is riding really well at the moment and also rising Irish superstar Eddie Dunbar, who at 18 years and 244 days will be the youngest rider in the race. More on them in the preview later. Madison Genesis, JLT Condor and Team Raleigh will also look to make their mark in front of the home fans, expect them to be on the attack every day.
The Route
The route has three challenging stages that see them hit some of the roads of the Tour de France last year, albeit in some cases in the reverse direction. The first stage's profile doesn't look like much, but looking closer at it there are five listed climbs, three of which come in quick succession as they head to Robin Hood's Bay, the final climb of the Cote de Robin Hood's Bay is a tough 10.3% gradient for 1.5kms, and this could see a selection that gets rid of a lot of the sprinting types. There is around 30kms left to go though, so there is a chance they can get back on again, but it could be blown apart in to ones and twos in behind.
Stage 2 from Bridlington to Scarborough should be one for the sprinters alright though, as the two climbs are short and easy and a long way from home. Stage 3 is a real brute though with 6 listed climbs, including the longest climb of the race in the Cote de Hebden Bridge which is 4.1kms at 5.5%. The final climb of the Cote de Chevin (1.4kms at 10.3%) comes with not far to go to the finish and it could be the scene for final attacks to try to get away. This stage could be blown to pieces if it is anything like the Tour de France stage over similar roads - there were only 50 finishers inside a minute of the winner, and 120 riders finished over 10 minutes behind the winner, Vincenzo Nibali.
Click on each tab to read stage previews and recommendations. Stage information and predictions will be added closer to each stage.
Stage 1
Stage 1 - Bridlington to Scarborough, 174kms
Friday May 1st
Stage One will start in seaside town of Bridlington and 174km later finish further up the coast in Scarborough. The riders, from all over the world, will pass through spectacular coastal scenery and the iconic North York Moors landscapes. From the start line in Bridlington the riders will head along the Flamborough Head Heritage Coast before turning away from the coast into the North York Moors National Park, through Dalby Forest and towards Pickering. They’ll then take a spectacular journey back to the coast at Whitby, and then south to Robin Hood’s Bay with the ultimate race to the finish line on the seafront at Scarborough.
So the prices are out now with a few days and I still can't understand why Marcel Kittel is the odds-on favourite for this stage. Even if he was close to top fitness I'd be reluctant to back him at odds-on in a race like this. Anything can happen and it could be a bit chaotic. That climb of the Robin Hood's Bay is tough - 1.5kms at 10.3% - and it's likely that he could be shelled out the back if they go really hard up it. There are almost 30kms left though once over the top, so he has a decent chance of getting back in, but with a lack of race fitness, a weakish team and a lot of other teams keen on leaving him behind, he could well not make it back in.
So who wins it then instead? Good question. It's wide open after that. Matteo Pelluchi is the 11/2 second favourite, and although he started the season really well, he crashed badly in Tirreno stage 3 and was off the bike for 5 days, then came back to racing in Catalunya, but failed to finish that too, then went on an altitude training camp in the Sierra Nevada at the start of April. He seems to be happy with his form though, he's been tweeting such in the last few days. Like Kittel though, it's hard to trust him as he hasn't raced in five weeks.
Ben Swift is next at just 6/1, one of the lowest prices I think I have ever seen on Swifty.. Of course Sky will be keen to get the Brit on the winners step in this first stage of the TDY and he hasn't been going badly at all this year. He won a stage in the Settimani Coppi e Bartali, solo, in the mist and rain by 16".. a pretty unusual sort of result for a sprinter.. The field was pretty weak though to be fair, but he followed that up with a 4th place in the lumpy final stage to take 2nd in the GC. 2nd in the first stage of the Volta Algarve behind Meersman, he then headed to the Pais Vasco where he pulled out on the second stage.
He has written the following about that on his website:
"After two difficult days in Pais Vasco, I headed home for some R&R. I felt super fatigued going into this race and didn’t have the legs I needed to achieve the goals I wanted at the race. With Basque been such a difficult race we made the best decision to stop. I am now going to take a few days off the bike to recover a build towards my next goals of the season. Next up for me is Tour of Yorkshire which is going to be a special race for me so I need to be fresh and ready to go!"
So it's clear that the race is a big goal for him and being on home territory, as he hails from Rotherham in South Yorkshire, he will be super motivated. The only problem is the flat sprint finish doesn't suit him as much as a hilly finish would have. 6/1 is quite short for that reason, he may just be squeezed out of a podium spot. The jury is still out though on him!
Gerald Ciolek leads the line for MTN Qhubeka and he has fond memories of this part of the world when he won that stage in the Tour of Britain in Kendal two years ago. Since then though he has found it hard going with very few visits to the podium in the last year or so. He did take a fine 2nd place in a stage in Tirreno, but he DNF'ed in Paris-Roubaix, Flanders and E3. With that sort of recent form it's hard to trust him at such a short price again.
Steele Van Hoff is one that interests me though.. The former Garmin Sharp man was the big name signing for Continental squad NFTO, and he started the year really well with a superb win on stage 4 of the Tour Down Under and a 2nd and a 3rd in the Herald Sun Tour, but then came to the UK and has won the Jock Wadley Memorial and just last week the Rutland-Melton International CiCLE Classic. NFTO have just signed a big deal with Aberdeen Asset management and have big ambitions to step up to Pro-Continental level in 2016, and will be keen to impress in this race. With Ian Bibby the impressive winner of the Chorley GP and Eddie Dunbar settling in to his first season in the big league like a seasoned pro, I expect we'll see plenty of the men in black and red this weekend. 18/1 on Von Hoff is worth a small bet each-way.
Greg Van Avermaet has been incredibly busy in the last two months and has been very successful with a series of top placings in the big races. It could start to catch up with him soon, but he hasn't shown signs of slowing yet. It's possible we see him on the attack on Robin Hood's Bay, but with 30kms left to go to the finish, it's unlikely we'll see him stay away.
Chris Sutton at 25/1 could be involved at the finish, as could Jonas Van Genechten at 50/1, Barry Markus at 66/1 and Russ Downing at 66/1. At the moment though it's hard to make a strong case for any of the top guys in the betting - Kittel may well get back in and could well destroy them all in the sprint, but it's a risk at such a short price - I'd rather lay than back at that price. For now, I'm happy to start with a little bet on the Hoff, I might add more nearer the off.
Recommendations:
0.5pts each-way on Steele Von Hoff at 18/1 with PP.
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PROFILE
Stage 2
Stage 2 - Selby to York, 174kms
Saturday May 2nd
Well what a chaotic stage today. A mad, exciting, uncontrollable day which saw Eddie Dunbar show the world what a special talent he is and also saw the inside of an ambulance as he crashed out with a broken clavicle. I hope I managed to put you all off Marcel Kittel, what a farce to have the star of the show abandon with only half the stage gone. It was a shame to see Ben Swift crash out also as Sky are clearly looking very strong and he could have done well in the end. It was a pity also that Van Avermaet missed the move, he led the first of the chasing bunches home and would have easily won that sprint I think.
So where does that leave us? Well it looks like the race is probably between the 5 guys that fought out the finish today. LPH wasn't even listed by any bookie last night, which is really annoying as I was thinking of backing him, he is now the 4/5 favourite to win overall (as short as 2/5). Voeckler is 9/2 (as short as 2/1) and Sanchez is around 5/1. Deignan is as big as 33/1 and although that looks tempting to me as he might do ok on the final stage, he will probably be asked to sacrifice himself for LPH. After that it's 100/1 Van Avermaet and upwards for the rest, only Van Avermaet is slightly tempting me, possibly Cummings at 150/1, but it's a huge ask to pull back that much time.
Stage Two will see the race start outside the imposing Selby Abbey. The route takes in much of the Yorkshire Wolds, and from Selby will take the peloton towards Market Weighton, through North Newbald and on to Beverley, where they will turn north to Malton, then on to Stamford Bridge. Spectators will have the chance to see a circuit of York and organisers are hoping for a dramatic finish in the town as the riders do three laps of a 20kms circuit before the finish. And as part of the legacy of the Tour de France to get more women cycling there will also be a dedicated women’s event on a circuit through York on day 2, the 2nd May.
So with Swift out and Kittel out it should make it easier to pick a winner from tomorrow eh? Of course not - as we saw today, anything can happen in this race, as I warned in my pre-race preview! The disappointing thing though is that the guy I was hoping to back again, and was hoping would be double figures, is just 11/2. That of course is Steele Von Hoff - do we give him another go after the disappointment of he not even getting a shot at the sprint today? He was going well today up until things blew apart, NFTO said to me in a tweet that he was 'sitting comfortably' in the main group. He finished in the 5th group today, 3'39" along with Moreno Hofland, but they were well ahead of the likes of Matteo Pelucchi.
I think he is worth another shot, with Eddie Dunbar crashing today the team will need a pick-me-up and also it means that they will be focused on trying to get a result tomorrow. 11/2 isn't great, but I thought he'd win today and tomorrow's stage is easier.
Moreno Hofland was going very well today for a while but blew up also on the Robin Hood Bay climb, he could go close tomorrow too, but again, he's quite short at 5/1. Lotto Jumbo could really do with a win soon, can he provide it for them tomorrow? It's possible, but I'm not backing him at that price.
Matteo Pelucchi should be the fastest out and out sprinter left in the race though, but he didn't do very well today, he was 15th last on the stage today, 16'40" down. That doesn't instill me with much confidence in him though, but maybe he jacked it in early in order to save the legs for tommorrow.
Reinart JV Rensberg blew up badly today after dragging Cummings in to the mix, not sure he'll be sprinting tomorrow. Given that the race ends in three laps of a 20km circuit, the likes of Russell Downing could get involved, he's a quality Crit type rider. With Kittel out of the race it could be up to Ramon Sinkeldam to sprint for Giant-Alpecin, but the Dutchman hasn't done anything this year to warrant backing him at just 11/1.
Gerard Ciolek is pretty short too around 9/1, he could well be right up there, but not at that price for me. Van Avermaet is only around 14/1 too, but he showed today at the finish that he has a very good sprint on him even after a hard day's racing. He wouldn't be the greatest sprinter in the world by any means, but then again, he's not up against the greatest sprinters in the world either. He will be smarting after today's result, he was clearly the fastest in the second group, he was just very unlucky to have been held up and dropped. He came to within spitting distance of the lead group, but it was just as Philip Deignan was ripping it to pieces at the front of the group. He could be involved, but it could be 5th or 6th place.
Jempy Drucker and Jonas Van Genechten could get involved at big prices, as could Rick Zabel, I believe he was 200/1 earlier, he's 50/1 now, so I might leave him.
It could be a really messy sprint, and Pelucchi may well be one of the fastest sprinter in the race, he is likely to be in the top 3 tomorrow. 9/2 is a little short but it's worth a little saver on him I think. Steele Von Hoff should be up there too and he is my main bet again tomorrow, hopefully we'll get a result tomorrow..
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Steele Von Hoff at 11/2 with Bet365
1pt win on Matteo Pelucchi at 9/2 with Bet365
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Stage 3
Stage 3 - Wakefield to Leeds, 167km
Sunday May 3rd
Annoying to have picked Pelucchi win only today when he finishes second, Von Hoff disappointed given the amount of work NFTO had done at the front to reel in the stubborn resistance of the Bert de Backer and Mark McNally breakaway. A great sprint by Hofland though, I said he was going well, but was reluctant to back him at just 5/1.. ah well.
Stage Three will see the peloton make a return to some of the roads raced in the 2014 Yorkshire Grand Départ of the Tour de France, only with a twist; starting in Wakefield, riders will travel south to Barnsley before heading to Holmfirth where they pick up the Grand Départ route in reverse, racing to Ripponden before riding the iconic Cragg Vale - which in the Tour de France was the country’s longest continual climb and now becomes the longest continual descent. The riders will then make their way to Hebden Bridge, Oxenhope and through the famous cobbled streets of Haworth, one of the most iconic images of the Tour de France in Yorkshire. After a steep climb at Goose Eye the riders will once again see Ilkley, with the famous climb up the Cow & Calf before a sprint point at Arthington and then what is expected to be a hugely popular finish line in Roundhay Park in Leeds.
What a stage this could be. It has all the hall-marks of a one-day classic, every man for himself sort of stage. It will be impossible to control, there could be riders all over the road and it could be a very select group fights out this finish. I think this could be a crazy day with a Tour of Flanders type of selection process over all the hills. For that reason I think Greg Van Avermaet is a strong favourite for the stage. He has shown he still has good legs despite the amount of racing he has been doing at the highest level, he just missed out on the winning break on stage 1 but chased so hard in behind on his own and pushed the chasers all the way, before jumping away easily from them all at the finish.
Again today he showed his attacking spirit with an audacious attack in the last kilometre that almost made it, he was caught with less than 200m to go. I think tomorrow's stage is made for him and BMC have been looking reasonably strong with Hermans, Drucker, Sanchez and Lodewyck being prominent in the last two days. There will be an interesting dynamic within the team though as Sanchez is sitting in 2nd place, just 10" behind LPH. I think BMC will send Van Avermaet up the road reasonably early, he could attack around Goose Eye or the Cow and Calf with 36kms to go. With GVA up the road, and as he is still within reach of the podium being 1'20" down, the others like Sky and Europcar will have to chase hard to shut him down. That will leave Sanchez able to sit in and get a ride to the finish where he could maybe counter attack later in the stage if GVA is pulled back in.
I really fancy GVA to have a big race tomorrow and the 5/1 with PP offers a little bit of value, he's only 3/1 with Bet365. This also got me thinking about another of his team-mates - Jempy Drucker has had a good classics season, taking 10th in the Handzame Classic, 11th in Dwars Door Vlaanderen, 16th in Gent-Wevelgem and 28th in Flanders and just today he sprinted to 4th place in York. I think he could enjoy it tomorrow and if BMC look to split things up and he can sit in there with Sanchez and it comes to a reduced sprint finish, he could well be there, whereas the likes of Hofland, Pelucchi and Sinkeldam may not be anywhere near the front after a day like this. 66/1 with Paddy Power was a cracking price I thought, he's only 25/1 with BetVictor.
Lars Peter Nordhaug is favourite with Paddy Power at just 4/1, I think that's a little short. He's going to have his work cut out for him to try to control everything tomorrow, Phil Deignan is looking strong but the rest of the team not so much.. He could well find himself isolated a long way from home and there are plenty of guys who will want to attack him. He has been very strong obviously of late and was clearly the strongest rider of the front group on Friday.
Samu Sanchez and Tommy V rolled back the clock on Friday with vintage performances. Voeckler was his usual awesome self, hanging in by the skin of his teeth on the climb of Robin Hood's bay and attacking several times on the run in even though he looked cooked. Can he repeat that sort of performance tomorrow? I doubt it to be honest. This sort of relentless, rolling climbing on sticky, heavy roads could catch him out and he may not be fighting out the finish. Samu Sanchez could try the 1-2 with Van Avermaet but although he went well on Friday, this may not be his cup of tea either and he doesn't have the power any more at the finish as we saw too though. If he comes to the finish with a small group he won't win.
Julien Simon could have a big chance tomorrow too, he has been going well on the hilly races recently, with a 21st place in La Fleche Wallone and 17th in LBL. He has been scoring some good results over the last few years on courses like these and has been in the top 20 on the first two stages here. He is 2'31" behind so he may be given some more leeway than say the likes of Van Avermaet. Cofidis have come here with a strong team that have been very active so far and he could well go on the attack tomorrow with Rosetto sitting in 4th place. 16/1 might just be worth taking as he could go well tomorrow on this course.
It's wide open after that - Stephen Cummings, Russ Downing, Gerard Ciolek or the likes of Bialabloki, Bibby, or at a massive price, Cyril Gautier, could go well too on what should be a very exciting stage.
Recommendations:
1pt e/w on Greg Van Avermaet at 5/1 with PP
0.5pts e/w on Jempy Drucker at 66/1 with PP
0.5pts e/w on Julien Simon at 16/1 with Bet365
0.25pts e/w on Cyril Gautier at 125/1 with PP
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Overall Contenders and Favourites
This is an almost impossible task to pick the winner of this race.. anything can happen this week, like we saw in the Tour of Britain last year when Dylan Van Baarle suprised everyone and took the win. Ben Swift is the 7/2 favourite with PP, followed by Matteo Pelucchi and Marcel Kittel. Also, the hills and roads of Yorkshire can be really, really tough. Just look at the carnage of the stage of the TDF to Sheffield last year, there were riders all over the place and huge time gaps after just two stages. The weather can go through four seasons in one day and it could get really wet and nasty up in the hills. There's also the possibility of coastal winds to split things up on the first stage as they hit Robin Hood's Bay.
There are time bonuses of 10, 6 and 4 seconds to the first three in each stage and also 3,2 and 1 second for intermediate sprints. So it is possible that someone like Ben Swift, who will be up there in every stage, can win this race if it comes down to three bunch gallops. He is also capable of picking up some intermediate bonuses too, especially on the third stage where the two sprint points are located inside the last 38kms, the last with just 15.5kms to go.
The noises coming out of the Sky camp are very positive indeed and he is very confident of a big result. He needed a rest after going too deep to try to defend the lead in the Copa e Bartali and suffered in Pais Vasco, but has had a good break since and has trained well for this. With his local knowledge and a course that should suit him on two out of three days in particular, he should go very close to winning this. He is 4/1 with Skybet and an each-way bet should give us at least our stake back with a shot at the victory too. He's a pretty strong shout for a podium spot at the least.
I have a feeling we won't see Marcel Kittel fighting out the finish on stage 3, and he may even lose too much time to have any chance of taking the overall. He should win stage 2, he may win stage 1, but I'm not taking a chance on him to do so.
Matteo Pelucchi looks too short to me, not sure I can trust backing him at odds of just 7/1, and definitely not the 4/1 with Skybet. Moreno Hofland is next in the betting at around 10/1, and how can you be backing a guy at those sorts of odds whose latest results read DNF, DNF, DNF, 110, 77, 152, 121.. He did manage to finish 7th three days running in Paris-Nice, and also finished 7th in a stage in Andalucia, and I think that's the sort of placing that he will achieve this weekend again.
Gerard Ciolek has tasted success in the north of England before, pipping a rising star Sam Bennett to the stage win in Kendal in the TOB two years ago. He can cope with lumpy roads and wet conditions, as his famous win in Milan-San-Remo showed. He has a decent sprint on him and could well be involved in all three of these stages too.
Greg Van Avermaet - is there anything he can't do at the moment? Despite riding under a cloud with his ongoing investigation, he has been one of the riders of the year so far. Stage 1 and 3 could suit him very well, especially stage 3, just remember how well he did on the stage to Sheffield in the TDF last year, he came very close to winning it for me at 50/1! As long as he isn't fatigued after a very busy spring, and not treating this as a bit of rest and recuperation then he should be a key player in this race. I can see him attacking on the final climb on stage 1, up the Robin Hood, and he should also enjoy stage 3. He hasn't a bad sprint when a reduced bunch so he could well be a podium contender if the race gets blown apart on stage 3.
There are loads of others of course who could get involved, but don't waste your money on Brad Wiggins.. This race has a danger of being the Brad show, a 3-day lap of honour and that's fine, as long as it doesn't distract from the race itself. He won't be winning it though. Instead, there are some of the home riders who excel in these sorts of races and these kinds of conditions who could have some fun over the weekend.
Guys like Ian Bibby, who has recently won the Chorley Grand Prix, aided by his young Irish team-mate Eddie Dunbar should go well in this race with his NFTO squad. Former winner of the Tour of the Reservoir, he might just be able to slip the leash on one of these stages and could get in a decisive break. Another home rider that could go well is Russ Downing, leading the Cult team in this race. He has been riding well this year and has gone well in the TOB in the past. This is a big race for him this year and he is sure to be active.
Finally, Steve Lampier of Team Raleigh is a seriously strong rider for stages likes these. Runner-up in the Chorley Classic and the Tour of the Reservoir, he clearly has really good legs at the moment. Home riders have often gone well in the races like the Tour of Britain and the Ride London Classic etc and we could well see a 'local' rider cause a surprise this weekend. These guys are worth a small little investment at big prices.
Overall though, it is likely to be won by Bonus seconds won in the sprint finishes and out on the road. Team Sky and Ben Swift look the most likely to be consistent enough to pull it off, but there isn't a great deal of value in his price. I am struggling to make a strong case for anyone else though so he is the bet. Greg Van Avermaet, could be a man to try to split the race apart on the 3rd stage and Ian Bibby, Steve Lampier and Russ Downing could try to upset the apple cart and strike a blow for the locals. It could be a race to wait and watch as well though and take a view before the final stage, it might still be very close.
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Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Ben Swift at 4/1 with Skybet
0.5pts each-way on Greg Van Avermaet at 16/1
0.25pts each-way on Ian Bibby at 100/1 with William Hill
0.25pts each-way on Steve Lampier at 200/1 with William Hill
0.2pts each-way on Russell Downing at 66/1 with BetVictor
