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- Published on Friday, 26 July 2013 23:56
Tour of Poland Overall & Stage 1
First off let me caveat this preview by saying trying to do a preview of something like the Tour of Poland is far harder than something like the Tour de France, or even any of the one-day classics. The routes and important climbs etc are generally not well known and it is hard to know who is really going for it or who is just doing some training for the Vuelta or the Worlds!
Having said that, I have been asked by a number of follower to do a preview so I will give it a go with the information I have to hand. There is of course plenty of past races to visit for reference and most of the big guns at the top of the betting are pretty familiar to us - anyone remember some chap called Bradley Wiggins?
To give an indication of just how open the race is this year and how hard it is to predict, the bookmakers are all over the place with the pricing:
Bet365 have Nibali 4/1 favourite, Paddy Power have Henao the 4/1 favourite along with Boylesports who are 9/2, then Boyles have LL Sanchez at just 6/1, whereas he is 18/1 with Bet365! Wiggins varies from 9/2 to 9/1, with Nibali 4/1 to 7/1. So - what is value and what is a poor bet? This shows the benefits of shopping around for prices though as a tenner on Sanchez with Bet365 pays out £120 more than the same bet with Boylesports.
Before we take a quick run through some of the candidates at the top of the betting let's take a look at the course and the stages that lie ahead.
The Parcours
The race actually starts with two tough mountain stages - in ITALY! These are the first stage from Rovereto to Madonna di Campiglio over 184.5 km and the second stage from Marilleva Val di Sole to Passo Pordoi Val di Fassa over 206.5 km. With a number of flat stages thrown in to the middle of the race, riders will be looking to try to create early time gaps on the first and second stage. These time gaps may well be crucial to doing well come the final stage as it is a 37km individual Time Trial. The race has attracted TT specialists Wiggins, Cancellara, Phinney and you could add Nibali in there given his improvement in TTs this year, so riders who don't fancy their chances in the TT need to build up a big enough buffer come Saturday.
This year's Tour of Poland will be used as a testing ground for the UCI to introduce a new classification to the WorldTour with the aim of creating more excitement during the race. Bonus points will be available for riders over predetermined sprints or KOMs under the "Race Appeal" banner with time bonuses also up for grabs. In another bid to create more attacking competition throughout each stage, teams will be made up of just six riders, as opposed to the usual eight that's allowed. Not sure these 'time bonuses' will make a huge difference at the end of the week, but it might see the non-TT'ers going for whatever time bonuses they can get their hands on.
Stage One
Stage one sees the riders tackle the Dolomites and along the route the peloton will encounter the Category 1 Fai Della Paganella, the uncategorised Passo del Ballino, and the Category 2 Passo Del Durone. These climbs are hard and uneven and difficult to get a good rhythm on, something that might play in to the hands of the like of Nibali, Henao or LL Sanchez but against the likes of Wiggins, Cancellara and Scarponi who will not be comfortable.
Favourite for the 1st stage is Henao around 9/2 and I can see why, with that tough climb up to Madonna di Campiglio, which is 11km long at an average of around 6.5%, but which has parts at 10%. I expect lots of attacks on this climb to split things up and we could well see the like of Henao, Nibali, Duarte and Uran going at it on the very first day. Of that lot I would have to fancy Henao given his early season form so I think he is a decent enough bet at 9/2 to get the opening stage off with a bang. Others to consider would be LL Sanchez, as it does level off to about 2.6% for the final few kilometers, he may well hang in there and jump at the finish, something he is an expert at. He might be worth an interest at a big 33/1 with Bet365.
Overall Contenders
So on to my thoughts for the overall, I'll quickly go through them - I think LL Sanchez could have a good race and I have taken the 18/1 with Bet365 tonight. He can climb very well, is great at the punchy, rolling type courses as well (2nd last stage will suit him too) and he is a pretty decent time Triallist (Spanish TT champion last year, 2nd this year). I think he may be a little 'off the radar' for the likes of Nibali and Wiggins and can exploit that. He has skipped the Clasica San Sebastian, a race he has won twice to go to this race, so he must fancy his chances.
Vincenzo Nibali - early season was briliant, winning Tirreno-Adriatico and the Giro, but he hasn't really been seen since. A brilliant climber, he should not lose much if any time in the first two days. His time trialling has also improved markedly this year after reportedly doing a huge amount of wind-tunnel testing, positioning adjustments etc over the winter. He will have a great chance, especially with the race starting in Italy to give him extra encouragement! At 7/1 he should be there or thereabouts.
Bradley Wiggins - I honestly don't think he will win it and the 9/1 available on him looks poor value to me - I don't think he will be close enough to the leaders to steal it in the TT on the last day. His poor early season was compounded by his disaster at the Giro and who knows what sort of physical (and mental) state he will turn up in. Definitely do not take the 5/1 on offer for him, that is a shocking price!
Rafal Majka - he is an interesting runner and is clearly fancied by some given he is as low as 7/1 (he is 22/1 with Bet365). Obviously he will be carrying the hopes of the Polish nation and his 7th place in the Giro was an excellent result. He has the two Sorensens and Oliver Zaugg to help him in the mountains, but I still don't think he is worth a bet, even at 22/1 - not sure that team is strong enough if he needs help on the first two days.
Scarponi is around 33/1 and may well scrap for the top 6 but I don't think he has the legs to create enough of a time gap on any of the favourites to be able to hold them off in the TT. So no bet for me. Rigoberto Duran Duran is an interesting candidate at 14/1, but you would think that Henao will be the team leader and unless he disappoints he should be the more likely of the two to succeed - a look at last years results saw Henao finish in 3rd place and Uran in 10th, 13" behind him, and I can see a similar result this year, albeit with bigger time gaps. Henao is a good favourite, but a little short for me (pun intended!) at just 5/1 or so.
Tanel Kangert is another fancied rider and I can see why - he has been riding very well this year, with a 6th place finish in the Tour de Suisse. He is a very good climber and is the current Estonian TT champion, so he is pretty handy against the clock. There isn't much value in him at 7/1 but I think he may well be trying a lot harder than some of the others during the week and may sneak a top 3.
The other two Poles Spilak and Szmyd are outsiders, but you can be sure we will see plenty of them on their home race. But even at 18/1 and 66/1 I am not really tempted, I don't think either of them are good enough to trouble the big guns. Szmyd did finish 6th in 2010 though.
So overall, I am backing Sanchez at 18/1, Nibali at 13/2 and a little interest in Kangert to hit the top 3. If you are looking for a long shot outsider, try Marco Pinotti at 25/1.
