Tour de France Stage 8: Castres - Ax 3 Domaines, 195km

A great stage for me yesterday with my headline bet Sagan landing the odds at 4/1 after a superb performance from the Cannondale boys to rip it up the Cat 2 climb and leave the sprinters trailing in their wake.

I almost nailed the 1-2-3 with Degenkolb finishing 2nd and Bennati denying me a 14/1 place bet on Kwiatowski as he finished 4th by a bike length or so. A bit of in play trading also worked out very well, as I laid Eddy B for a top 3 placing at odds of 2.0 and 1.58 (posted on the Kingston Wheelers forum at the time here and also as an update to yesterday's post at 15.30). I can't believe someone was willing to back Eddy B at odds of 1/2 for a top 3 with the likes of Degenkolb and Kwiatowski still in the pack - that's a bet I'll happily take on any day! So a nicely profitable day to set us up for the big stages to come. 

Stage 8 is the first real showdown for the GC contenders. Most of them are relatively unscathed, bar perhaps Quintana who has now crashed three times in total! Something to keep in the back of your mind when thinking about betting on him.. The stage starts out flat, but then suddenly kicks up for the climb of the Col de Pailhères, the first HC climb of the Tour.

The climb more or less starts after the intermediate sprint after 119km and goes on for about 45km. It's the kind of climb you can expect the Sky train to just power up, looking to thin out the main bunch and tire the other GC candidates as much as possible. 

The terrain up until then is bound to tempt breakaways, but unlike when Riblon managed to solo to victory here in 2010, I can't see something similar happening this year, any breaks will be reeled in probably on the final climb if within 2-3 mins of the GC group. 

So what happens next?! Well Chris Froome is solid 3/1 favourite and probably deserves to be favourite. Sky will try to control it. Froome will have Porte by his side for the final climb. Last year he won the first serious mountain duel and already has signaled his intentions with his little attack on stage 2. But he may not have it all his own way, and until we see what sort of form he really has versus what the opposition has, I am not going to back him at that price. I won't be laying him either though as that is dangerous!

Instead, I am backing Rodriguez to win tomorrow. He has been very quiet so far, but this sort of finish is perfect for him. He can let Sky and Saxo duel it out to the last 2kms and then either attack on the 8% bit with 2km to go or just chase down whoever does go and will beat them in a sprint. It could come down to 4-6 riders battling it out at the finish.. I have backed him at 9/1 to win and looking to back him at 2/1 to place, but may have to take around 6/4.

So who else will be in the shake up and worth an interest maybe? Well Contador simply has to be there if he really wants to win this years TDF. If he loses time to Froome on the first serious test then it is all over for him I think. He did look powerful in the TTT though so I think he will be Froome's shadow tomorrow. Valverde could be up there too, but I am not going to back him to place as he could be dropped in the last 2kms maybe.. I want to play a watching brief on Quintana for now given his crashes, but ordinarily I think he would he flying off the front with 4km to go when it hits 10.5%. I don't think Rolland nor the BMC boys have the kick to win a finish like this, so I am going to look to two lively '2nd tier' riders for an e/w interest. 

Dan Martin showed in Liege-Bastogne-Liege that not only is he turning in to a supreme climber, but that he can outdo the master at finishes like this when he attacked and held Purito at bay rather easily. Slight worry is that when the pace cranks up in the last 4km he might find it a little tough like he did in stage 9 of the Tour de Suisse this year, but if he can hang in there he is a lively contender at 30s for the win and 7/1 for a place. Second one is Igor Anton - there are only 2 chances this year for the Spanish riders to shine in the Pyrenees so expect the Euskatel boys to be active for this one - we may even see one or two of them try to get up the road early to help Anton should he try to attack on the last climb. So at about 40/1 he is worth an e/w interest too. 

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