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Published on Thursday, 10 July 2014 23:10

Tour de France St. 7

Épernay to Nancy

Friday July 11th, 234.5kms 

This should be an interesting stage and a break from the sprint outcomes we have had on all of the flat stages so far. The reason being is that this looks like a day for a breakaway, with a challenging last 30kms that includes two Cat 4 climbs and another uncategorised lump just before them on the run-in that could act as a springboard for a final solo attack. 

It was an interesting stage 6 today, with Greipel seizing his opportunity after Kittel missed out on the sprint to take his first victory of the race. It's a shame that Kittel wasn't there as it would have been interesting to see if Greipel could have beaten him in a straight up sprint. Greipel looks like he is back though and is one to watch going forward now. Kristoff did the business at least, nabbing another 2nd place for me, another close shave to a good pay day. 

Démare had a nightmare, crashing badly and then getting caught out by the echelons, so the matchbets involving him went down. Van Poppel didn't get much luck either, puncturing just as his team brought him up for the sprint. 

The Route

After leaving Épernay they head north-east for around 125kms through Champagne country before taking a hard right turn and begin heading in a mostly straight southerly route. The forecast is for light showers and a gentle 7mph tail wind as they head south towards Nancy so it will help a little any breaks that are still out there in the home stretch.

This is the longest stage of the race so far though at 234.5kms, so any early break away will have a long day in the saddle. There are a couple of little lumps and bumps along the way that are uncategorised such as the pull up to Douaumont after 116kms, but the key action will all happen inside the last 30kms. First at the 205km mark they go over an uncategorised climb, the first of a trilogy of hills which should play a big part in deciding the winner. 

With 217.5kms gone though they crest the Côte de Maron, a 3.2km drag which averages a steady 5%. Then with just 6.8kms to go they start up the final climb of the day, the Côte de Boufflers, a 1.3km pinch which averages 7.9%. The top of the climb has the steepest slopes and this will be a launchpad for late attacks for sure, as once they crest the top of the climb there are only 5.5km to go, of which 4.5kms is descending, so it should only be about 5 minutes of racing left. 

The finishing kick up will set up late attacks and it could be a solo winner, but also there could be a small bunch sprint. There is a little rise to the line that needs to be taken in to account too though with 300m to go, but there are unlikely to be pure sprinters contesting it anyway. There are a number of sharp turns and roundabouts inside the last few kms and if the rain comes again it could make for a very challenging last 5kms or so.

Contenders and Favourites

There are just so many possible winners and ways to win this stage it's hard to know where to start!

First off, there is the chance that the days breakaway will make it all the way to the finish. They will have a tailwind for most of the daywhile heading south-east and there is a possibility that there will be little incentive from behind for the usual suspects to chase. Unless there is someone high up in the GC (unlikely), Nibali's Astana will not chase. T-S will not chase, will be saving energy too for the days ahead. Giant-Shimano and Lotto-Belisol are probably not going to chase as they will only be setting it up for the puncheurs to leave their sprinters behind on the final climb. So with those sort of possibilites we may see a break hit the 8-10 minute level along this long stage.

First up a quick stab at some breakaway candidates, although this is like finding a needle in a haystack. Adam Hansen at 150/1, Jeremy Roy at 150/1, Tom Dumoulin at 100/1 and Jan Bakelants at 66/1 are four that could be worth a pound or two for an interest. 

Chances are though that the likes of Cannondale, Orica Green-Edge, Katusha and Omega-Pharma will up the pace in the latter stages and pull in the break to set up their men for the finish. There are a number who will fancy this sort of finish, either firstly to attack on the way up, attack on the way down or be ready for a reduced sprint finish.

Peter Sagan is the bookies favourite around 5/2 with some 11/4 available too. He will probably have his Green Machine working hard with 40kms to go to stretch things on the first and second lumps before the final climb. If Cannondale, and others with similar ambitions push it hard enough, early enough, they could thin out the peloton by half or more hitting the final climb. There are a lot of tired legs our there after a pretty savage opening week and we could see a lot of guys slipping back as the road rises up. 

If Sagan does hit the last climb in a good position, he is likely to try an early move on the ascent just as much as try it on the downhill or even bide his time for the sprint. He is still hunting his first stage win, and now Greipel has got his he is probably more keen than ever to get on the top step of the podium. 

Alexander Kristoff is next in the betting and did well for us again today with another placing to land the evens return on the each-way bet at 12/1. He revels in long, hard stages, and as we saw in Milan-San-Remo he is well capable of performing over climbs late in the day and fast descents to sprint finishes. I think he has a big chance again tomorrow and he's worth having onside at 15/2 with Skybet each-way as they are paying out 4 places. Even if one or two go solo to the finish he is likely to be challenging for the 'sprint win' behind. 

Tommy Voeckler is next at 18/1 best, but I think he won't be winning. He may try the long range attack but he won't stay away you'd think, and if he tries something on the final climb there are too many too good for him for him to be able to hold off a marauding pack. 

Michal Kwiatkowski did a bit of a suicide attack today, but one that almost came off for him, jumping and catching the sprinters teams sleeping with 1km to go. His attack possibly cost Kristoff the race as it meant Porsev had to start his leadout a lot earlier than planned to reel Kwiat back in. It showed he is feeling good, but it could also have taken a bit out of him and with mountain stages ahead he will need all his energy for I think he will be a bit more controlled tomorrow. 

Two riders who I noticed coming to the fore and finishing well today were Fabian Cancellara and Sylvain Chavanel. Cancellara had a good, but not great day on the cobbles, but showed he has good legs. Again today, he was very prominent in the last 10kms, poking his head out a few times to see what was going on up front. He looked like he was well positioned for the sprint, but didn't waste too much effort and rolled in in 14th place, still a good result. He will like this kind of finish and we could well see him attack on the last climb a little like he did on Stage 1 up the hill in Harrogate and Time Trial his way to the finish. At 20/1 though I think it's a little short for me, I'm going to leave that.

Sylvain Chavanel hasn't had a great race up until now and in fact he lost over 18 minutes on the cobbles. Today though his bright red bike started to make an appearance near the front in the last few kilometres and sprinted to a good 10th place. This finish is perfect for him too, he has an explosive attack for that last climb and is an excellent descender. He may get a gap that he can hold to the line if there is some looking around and passing of the buck behind. At 33/1 he is worth having onside too. 

Orica Green-Edge have two cards to play here at least with Albasini and Gerrans, but I think Gerrans still isn't right after his crash on stage 1, he was tailed off on the run in today again. Michael Albasini is excellent at these kinds of finishes and is in good form too having won three stages in Romandie. He placed an excellent 6th place in Sheffield and has a 10th, 12th and 15th place finishes already in the Tour, showing his consistency and good positioning. If this comes down to a reduced group he could have a great chance of taking the stage victory. It is also possible that he could be in the break of the day, he sometimes does that too. He's 14/1 or so generally, but there is 20/1 available with BetVictor and on Betfair.

Greg Van Avermaet will be another for this finish too, as we saw in the Omloop he likes a long stage and a late breakaway.. He has been riding very well and landed another good placing today, taking 13th in the sprint. He had misfortune on the cobbles, on a day he was really up for it and I think he will be looking to finally land a stage tomorrow. At 29/1 on Betfair I've had a half a point.  

Other than that, there are a whole host of guys who could win. Samuel Dumoulin could be a danger in the sprint, he looked good today nabbing 3rd behind Kristoff; Tony Gallopin could surprise at 33/1if it comes to a reduced sprint; Valverde, Nibali or Contador could try an audacious move, although I think Nibali is the less likely of the three; Degenkolb, Navardauskas, Costa.. it goes on.. 

I almost forgot to mention the Germans - John Degenkolb was one I had marked down for this stage before the start, but seeing as he damaged an arse muscle in the crash on the cobbles I don't think he will be challenging. André Greipel did great today to win but I think he might be left behind tomorrow despite his ability to get over some smaller climbs like these. 

But I'm going to narrow it down to a few who are going to carry smallish bets for me and hopefully we'll get at least one of them in the frame!

Recommendations:

Adam Hansen - 0.2pts win at 150/1

Jeremy Roy - 0.2pts win at 150/1

Tom Dumoulin - 0.2pts win at 100/1

Sylvain Chavanel - 0.3pts each-way at 33/1

Alexander Kristoff - 1pt each way at 15/2 with Skybet (paying 4 places)

Greg Van Avermaet - 0.5pts win at 29/1 on Betfair 

Michael Albasini - 0.3pts each-way at 20/1 with Betvictor

Match Bets 

 Will add v. shortly.. 

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