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Published on Wednesday, 03 July 2013 12:33

Tour de France Stage 5: Cagnes-sur-mer to Marseille, 228.5km

Today's stage is a difficult one to call. On paper, they say, it should come down to a mass bunch sprint with all the protagonists involved. But as we saw yesterday, what they say and what can actually happen often are poles apart!

The sprinters are the favourites in the betting, ranging from Greipel as fav at 3/1 to Cav at 4/1, Saggers at 6/1 and Skittles at 14/1 with the rest 25/1 and much bigger.

The course today sees 4 categorised climbs and one last climb of 7km at 3/1% with just 12km to go from the summit. The first 3 climbs shouldn't really have any impact on the result as a break of 5-10 will probably go on the first climb and ride over most of these on their own 3 or 4 minutes ahead. But the action should hot up on the Cote de Bastide with 30km to go as if a small select breakaway can get a bit of time up that climb, descend fast and hit the last climb of the Col de la Gineste with a minute or more they might fancy their chances of staying away to the finish.

The sprinters teams will be working hard to keep it together and you would think that they main contenders should be able to hold on in there.. but I'm not sure about Cav - he folded very quickly on the climbs in Corsica, and granted these are not as tough, if the pace is red hot then he might struggle again, seeing as he has the bronchitis issue. I am laying him for a place at 5/4 - not too big to cause too much damage if he does place.

So who could be in that break that stays away? First candidate - Flecha - has been really active every day and this sort of rolling finish suits him perfectly.. needs to get exposure for the team too with Vacansoleil pulling out at the end of this year! At 75/1 for the win and 15/1 for the place hes worth a few quid on betfair, even as a trading bet if he does jump to lay back at a much shorter price. Others like Fuglsang at 1000/1 and maybe Bakelants giving it another crack at 400/1 are other likely candidates.

But it will more than likely end in a bunch gallop, maybe a reduced bunch, but I can see Greipel sticking in there comfortably and belatedly getting his first Tour win following his misfortune of having his derailleur snapped off on stage 1. Greiepel backed at just over 3/1.