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Published on Sunday, 06 July 2014 23:20

Tour de France St. 3

Cambridge to London

Monday July 7th, 155kms 

After two fantastic stages oop North, the Tour heads south towards the capital. The locals in Essex will be well jel as the tanned pros whizz through their neighbourhoods and past the skyscrapers of Canary Wharf and on the City of London. It's going to be a spectacular and special day and I personally can't wait! 

It isn't the first time that a race has finished in front of Buckingham Palace on the Mall as the Ride London Classic did so last year, with Arnaud Démare winning a messy sprint finish that saw none of the favourites involved. The pinchpoint coming through Admiralty Arch at the entrance to the Mall caused a squeeze that saw a lot of the favourites, including Sagan, lose ground that they could never recover as FDJ for once did a brilliant job in leading out Arnaud Démare. 

This time though they are coming from the complete opposite side of Admiralty Arch as they go straight through Parliament Square this time instead of turning right to go up  Whitehall. They continue along Birdcage Walk as far as Spur road and then take a right on to Spur Road and then another right in front of Buckingham Palace to head on to the Mall. The finish is straight and flat and wide and is just a few hundred metres from the last bend before the Palace. It should be a very exciting last few kilometres as the run along from Docklands, along the Embankment and up past the Houses of Parliament are extremely fast and have a few bends to negotiate. 

There will be massive crowds for the stage all the way from Cambridge, through Essex and through London. It's going to be a day that the riders won't forget for a while I'd imagine, let's hope the rain stays away and the sun shines and they all leave London fit and healthy! 

The Route

No detailed route analysis tonight as I'm in a car driving back from Sheffield,  will try to add some details later tonight. Safe to say it'll probably end in a sprint on the Mall. 

Contenders and Favourites

With a sprint finish like this I was looking forward to the first massive dual between Cavendish and Kittel since the Champs Élyseés just under 12 months ago. Cavs crazy manoeuvre has put paid to that though with him now out. One more bet lands though with him winning less than 2 stages at 7/4.. Never expected to win it that easy though!

Not a bad day for us today too with Van Avermaet doing the business by finishing 2nd and landing the each way bet at 50/1 for 3.45pts profit, just a shame they didn't manage to catch Nibali to land a big pay day. All three of the match bets landed too to pocket another nice few quid, making it over 6pts profit on the day.

With the removal of Cavendish, tomorrow's stage looks pretty much a penalty kick for Marcel  Kittel. I'll not waste much of your time here, he's as close to a certainty as your likely to see in the next three weeks. Yes,  he's only 4/6 best price but I think it just had to be taken. We won't get rich on it but a 66.7% return on investment will do me. 

His layout should deliver him perfectly,  especially now OPQS have no Cav to scrap for and get in their way, and he'll destroy the rest of these guys you'd think. 

André Greipel is probably going to be in the first three but offers little value at 4/1 best price. We haven't seen him in a while and maybe he'll prove me wrong but I don't think he's going to beat his young compatriot. 

Peter Sagan to me will struggle to get in the top three with these speedier types but will be top 5 so is a no bet for me at 12/1. Arnaud Démare is one that likes finishes on the Mall after winning the Ride London classic last August. He offers a little bit more value than Sagan at 14/1, but I think the 6/4 on Betfair for a top 3 place is worth a bet. 

The forgotten man of sprinting though seems to be Elia Viviani. 150/1 to win a sprint? Even though Sagan will be going for this it seems insane to me? Sagan had a hard day today and had nothing left at the finish, maybe they'll give Viv a go tomorrow?

He may have gotten a lot of sprints wrong in his time and blown a few strong chances but he has also won a lot of sprints in his time. Yes there are a good number of top sprinters and Cannondale will probably back Sagan, but they looked strong at the front at times in the first two stages and might give him a go. A small bet at 150s for interest.

Alexander Kristoff rode brilliantly today to be with the leading GC men coming to the last climb, only just fading when they put in the big accelerations. That could well have cost him a lot of energy but I think he should be ok for a crack at tomorrow's finish, but may just come up short in 5th place or so.

Bryan Coquard did brilliantly in stage 1 to not only finish 4th but to also stay upright as Gerro bounced in to him after he got nudged by Cav. He could well be up amongst the top 6 again tomorrow but I'm not convinced he can break in to the top 3. He should beat Van Poppel though in the match bet with Ladbrokes at 8/11

Recommendations:

6pts win on Marcel Kittel at 4/6 with Ladbrokes 

0.3pts each way on Elia Viviani at 150/1

Arnaud Démare - 1pt on top 3 at 6/4 on Betfair

Match Bets 

Richie Porte to beat Jacob Fuglsang at 6/4 with Bet365 - 2pts bet. Porte should be near the front looking after Froome, Fuglsang won't be sprinting.. 

Bryan Coquard to beat Danny Van Poppel at 8/11 with Ladbrokes - 2pts

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