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Published on Friday, 25 July 2014 22:30

TDF Stage 20

Bergerac to Périgueux

Saturday July 26th, 54kms ITT

The second and third steps on the podium are still up for grabs and it should be a fascinating conclusion to the Tour for fans of Pinot, Peraud and Valverde. A 54km, lumpy individual Time Trial awaits them on this stage and there's going to be some tremendous battles out there on the road to Périgieux.

We were bloody close to hitting the jackpot today. I can't believe Degenkolb was beaten again by a surprise breakaway, that's twice now he and we have lost out to that scenario. With Kristoff taking 2nd in the sprint behind Navardauskas it would have been a 1-2 and a big payout, the big one we've been waiting for.. as it is we'll settle for a small profit again as the 9/1 each way on Deggers paid out and the Kristoff top 3 at evens also. Match bets scored 2 out of 3 with Van Avermaet being caught out by the crash.

Brilliant ride from Navardauskas though as it saved Garmin's TDF, they were on fire at the end of this stage with three of them involved in helping to get Navardauskas away at the end. Chances are that if the crash didn't happen they'd have caught him, but we'll never know. Just pleased to have steered clear of Kittel, Greipel and Coquard. 

The Route

Five little Cols along the way make this a very rolling and challenging course - there is nowhere to hide today as they say, it's going to really hurt if you are trying to post a good time. Heading North of North-East for the entire distance more or less, something that could play a key part in the outcome of the stage is the weather. The forecast is for sun in the morning but for there to be some showers in the afternoon, with the wind picking up during the afternoon too, from 4mph in the morning to 8mph around 4pm. It's going to be very warm too, around 30º in the afternoon. 

The course starts off flat for the first few kilometres, then climbs gently from about the 5km point to the first hill at Lagudal after 15kms. Then they go along a little plateau before another kick up to the second hill after 18kms. On the way down the descent from there they pass through the first time check at Beleymas after 19kms.

After 28kms they pass over the next Col of the day at Sargaillou after a 7km climb. The next time check comes after 39kms at the top of the next Col at Font des Meaux which is the highest point of the day at 212m. Then a short, sharp climb up to the Côte de Coulounieix Chamiers, a 1.5km pinch that averages nearly 6%. From the top there's only 6kms to go, of which 4 is descending and then a little small rise up to the finish for the last 2kms.  

It's a stage where pacing yourself is going to be crucial as you could easily go too hard on the first half of the course up to the summit of Sargaillou. If you do you'll pay for it over the last 26kms. 

Contenders and Favourites

This was possibly going to be a tremendous battle between Froome, Contador and Nibali for the GC if it had all gone according to the script. Unfortunately the script was well and truly ripped up a long time ago, so instead we have this fantastic, if surprising three way battle for the podium places between Valverde, Pinot and Peraud. 

The hot hot favourite though for the stage is of course 'Der Panzerwagen' Tony Martin and he is the ridiculously short price of 1/4, as short as 2/5.. There's no question though that he should be anything bigger, I was hoping for something like 1/2 to pile in to but no such luck. Best we can hope for maybe is that someone starts to come close to his time later on at the first check point or something like that which may push his price out, but even that is unlikely to happen. With Cancellara, Froome and Wiggins not here, Martin is the only world class time triallist left you could say. 

But there are plenty who would have something to say about that! There should be a tremendous battle going on behind, but the likes of Bardet and Pinot are not going to trouble the podium tomorrow. Instead, we have to look at the second tier of TT'ers behind Martin to see who is worth backing. 

First stop is my old friend Tom Dumoulin - I've backed him lots of times and lots of times he has finished runner up! But he is good value for a top three in lots of time trials he does, he still seems to be under-estimated by the bookies. Dutch TT champion this year, 2nd in the TT in the Tour de Suisse (behind Martin), 2nd in the TT in the Tour of Belgium (behind Martin) and 6th in the TT in the Pays Basque (again behind Martin - I bet he hates him!) He is sure to go close tomorrow on a stage that suits him. At 20/1 each-way I had to back him, but also the 13/2 for him to finish 2nd to Martin with Skybet caught my attention, as did the 5/2 on Betfair to come in the first 3.

His biggest danger is probably Tejay Van Garderen.. The old TGV has taken a while to get going but has been performing very well in the last week or so with some very solid and consistent rides. He has made no secret of the fact he want's to win this stage and is quite focused to do so. An excellent time triallist on a course like this, he may well come closest to Martin, but unless Martin has a bad day or is sick or crashes TGV is riding for 2nd place at best. If you're a Tejay fan I can't put you off backing him e/w at 18/1. He's 5/4 for a top 3 with Bet365 and that could come close to landing too. I wouldn't be too surprised also to see him make up 4 minutes or more on some of those above him and finish on the podium. Big ask, but there could be some huge gaps out there today.

Vincenzo Nibali is simply on a different planet at the moment - four stages under his belt and a huge lead in the GC. He is also a very competent TT'ers, and in this sort of condition and confidence he must surely fancy his chances of a top ride tomorrow. How much motivation will he have with just the procession to Paris to come? I think actually he will be full of motivation - he wants to be crowned on merit and to be given the recognition he deserves and not that it was becuase the other two crashed out. He has outwitted them in Sheffield, dominated on the cobbles and crushed them on the climbs - and what better way to sign off your TDF victory than to put in a huge ride in the TT to crown the victory. 

The hilly parcours should be right up his street too, as the way he has been climbing has been sensationally smooth and relaxed but massively powerful - just ask Horner and Nieve when he rode away from them like they were stuck in a 53x12! I can't bring myself to back him though at 18/1, he could just take it easy tomorrow, coast around taking in the cheers of the crowds and settle for a top 10 placing.

He does have the benefit of all the time checks though starting last and the wind may well be at its strongest when he sets off on the course at 16:27. One thing against him though is his lack of TT miles practice this year.. He came 18th in the Dauphiné TT and was behind even guys like Pinot!

Geraint Thomas and Kwiatkowski are both around 25/1 but I don't think either of them will trouble the Podium. Thomas has said that he will be going 'full gas' in the TT but I think he will struggle to break in to the top 6 on the stage. Kwiatkowski has had all sorts of problems on the climbs and I can't see him being strong enough to trouble the podium either - he got dropped on that 1.3km climb today. 

After that they are all the big prices but they are that big for a reason! Durbridge, Barta, Tuft and Chavanel could all put in big rides (Barta is 250/1 with Betfred, around 66/1 everywhere) but I can't see them breaking in to the top 5, let alone the top 3. 

So Martin wins this by over 30 seconds, from Dumoulin and Van Garderen is what I am predicting!

Full start times of all the riders are below the recommendations..

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Tom Dumoulin at 20/1 with Corals who are the only bookies offering e/w betting...

1pt each-way on Dumoulin in the 'Without Martin' market at 11/2 (paying 1/5 for first three)

1pt on Dumoulin to come in the top 3 at 5/2 on Betfair

1pt on Van Garderen to come in the first 3 at 7/4 with Skybet 

Match Bets 

Jeremy Roy to beat Peter Velits (has beaten him in the Pays Basque TT earlier this year and is pretty evenly matched with him in TTs over the last two years) - 1pt at 11/10 with PP.

Lars Boom to beat Daniel Oss at 11/10 - Oss isn't the greatest TT'er in the world, and the last time these two met in a TT was last year in the Tour Mediterannean when Boom won the stage and Oss was 36th, 2'04" behind him. 2pts at 11/10

A hail mary acca to finish the race with - these two above, together with Durbridge to beat Tuft at 2/5, Martin Vs the Field at 1/5, Valverde to beat Konig at 2/5 and Nibali to beat Peraud at 2/7 - it pays 13.3/1 with Paddy Power - 2pts win!

Start Times of all riders - Times in Local Time.

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