Details: Published on Saturday, 13 July 2013 23:21

Stage 15: Givors to Mont Ventoux, 242.5km

Well, I almost nailed another cracker today. Michael Albasini, one of my 4 picks at 42s was narrowly pipped by 1000/1 shot Trentin. I really thought he had it and still don't know how he threw it away..

It was almost perfect - I actually had two of my picks in the break of the day, with Lars Back at 29/1 at one point actually leading out Ambasini in the sprint.. With 11km to go things got interesting as Julien Simon, one of my picks a few days ago, took a flyer as they crested the second last Cat 4 climb. He got a gap - 10 secs - down to 2/1... I layed some.. Down to 5/4 when 15 seconds, I layed some more.. Evens with about 4km to go, layed more and my final lay was at 1.60 with about 3km to go.. (tweeted this at the time). The commentators were getting very carried away and calling him the winner a long way from home, but I could see him tieing up. I counted myself and put the gap at 9 seconds when the screen graphics was showing 15..

Trentin wins Stage 14 Tour de France I also layed £16 of my stake on Albasini at 2/1 as they entered the last km, so despite not picking the winner I still made a profit on the day. Albasini or Bak would have been a huge winner for me though.. I still don't understand how Albasini didn't win - why didn't he just go straight past Simon inside the last km when he had a gap of 50m on Burghart? Why did he stop pedalling 10m from the line? Might have been cramp, I certainly know that feeling.. or it could be another feeling I know, when you try to pedal as hard as you can in a sprint and literally can't do any more! Congrats to Trentin though, first Italian stage winner since Petacchi in 2010. 3 out of the last 4 stages for OPQS too.

Anyway, on to stage 15 and the small matter of trying to find the winner of what could be a monumental stage to Mont Ventoux. It is the longest stage of the race and it is of course Bastille day. And what would Bastille day be without some French attacks - there has to be some. But who, and can they hold out all the way to Ventoux's summit?

stage15profil The stage rolls along over small lumps and bumps early on with three cat 4 climbs inside the first 44kms which are sure to set up the break of the day. They will then roll along for almost 100km until a Cat 3 climb and then it's a rolling 80km until the start of the giant of provence.

Given the right composition of the break it could well build a lead of 6-8 mins as they approach the Cote de Bourdeaux where things are sure to heat up a bit with maybe some counter attacks out of the main bunch. Will we see another day like last Sunday where Sky get punched and kicked for 200km until Ventoux? I'm not sure.. It's a very long hard week ahead - but then again it is a rest day tomorrow!

So who are likely to want to get away and put on a show for the French public? A few that immediately spring to mind are Christophe Riblon at 150/1 and Jeremy Roy at a massive 500/1 (both with Paddy Power), Chavanel (if he is left off the leash and isn't babysitting Kwiatkowski) who is a big 250/1 on Betfair and of course Thomas Voeckler. I think he has earmarked this stage and will love the drama of the day.. He is a lot shorter at 36s on Betfair but I expect a run for our money with the gurner supreme. Other than that, De Gendt at 50/1 is taking a few of my pounds, a likely long breakaway candidate.

But what if the GC boys keep it together or close enough to catch easily on the climb, what happens then? Well, we have been told to expect attacks.. Movistar want it, Saxo want it, Belkin might, but I expect them to follow wheels rather than attack. But Froome should be up for all attacks you would think. Sky will drill it as far as they can and depending on whether Porte was bluffing/dying/has recovered we will see if Froom is left alone again or not.

Daniel Martin wins stage 9 of Tour de France One guy who I have to stick with though after our fantastic success last Sunday is Dan Martin - Best priced 34s with the bookies, I have just taken some 44s and 46s on Betfair. He may well slip the net again if Froome is watching Contador, Contador is watching Mollema etc. He can ride a climb like this very well and he has clearly thought about it, judging by an interview with stickybottle.com where he said “It’s a race to Ventoux in the Tour de France. Obviously it’s a monument, it’s so huge, so historic. And I think it’s going to be a hot day so I think it’s going to be a fantastic day, such a long stage so hopefully the distance will suit me as well. It’s pretty close to the distance of Liege-Bastogne-Liege; with a pretty hard effort at the end of it and after two weeks of racing you really have to be on a super day to be able to win the stage. But I like climbing and Ventoux is an historic place so it’s going to be great.”

Other than that, it may well come down to a showdown with the GC leaders.. Froome is too short to back though at 5/2, Valverde will try but not get away so is also too short at 10/1, Contador is interesting at 16s though as he has a super team with him and expect him to have 2 or 3 at least with him near the finish, whereas Froome may be on his own. But it could come down to Froome just trying to kill them all off with an attack like on Ax 3 Domaines. If so, the only one I could maybe see staying with him, if he boxes a little cleverer now he is team leader, is Quintana. And if he does he will jump past him with 200m to go to try to steal it.

Another 'anything can happen' day then, lots of selections, but hopefully they should give us something to shout about and it should be a great day.