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Published on Saturday, 19 July 2014 21:58

TDF Stage 15

Tallard to Nîmes

Sunday July 20th, 222kms 

It's all over bar the shouting as they say. Vincenzo was magnificent again today, extending the lead over his rivals even more and it's now the best part of five minutes to the chasing pack. Once again it was his trademark acceleration that did the damage and once again none of his rivals were able to even get out the saddle to go after him. 

That is all but Jean-Christophe Peraud who rode brilliantly to latch on to the Sicilians wheel and not let go of it until the final straight. Peraud now looks good for a top 6 finish with nearly a two and a half minute lead over Mollema in 7th.

It all started so promising for us and It was almost exactly as I predicted. The early break fancied their chances and it contained no fewer than 4 of my picks in Nieve, Roche, Edet and Taaramae. It also included Purito Rodrguez as I expected and he kept his effort high all the way to the last few kilometres where he faded badly so the 2/1 Top 3 bet paid out. As it turned out they all faded one by one, with the best I was able to do was lay off 0.4pts of Roche in play at 16s (after backing him at 32s). Almost hit the full house with the matchbets again as 2 of the 3 came in, Nieve blowing up badly on the final climb to Risoul. A small loss on the day of around 2.5pts though which is annoying given how good things look

That's the second day running now that Sky's riders have cost me on this Tour, with Porte blowing up yesterday and taking all chances of my top 10 and GC bets with him. It's turning in to a nightmare for Sky with Porte losing more time today and he was getting dropped even on the flat bits leading in to the final climb. Geraint and Nieve were up with the break but capitulated early and the rest of the team are riding like a team that is struck down with a virus or illness or something.

But Chapeau to Rafa Majka, he seized his oportunity brilliantly and showed that he has superb legs. He has partially saved Saxo's Tour with that stage win, it would have been pretty miserable for them if they didn't a stage after Contador's untimely exit. Bardet  and Pinot were excellent again, duking it out on the final few kilometres.. Valverde was awful again, no effort to follow Nibali (well actually they could all be accused of that except for Peraud) and he was eventually tailed off and lost some time to Bardet - he now sits just 13" ahead of the young Frenchman and it's still all to play for for places 2-10. 

Honourable mentions too for Schleck, Ten Dam and Konig who are like three diesel engines and just keep chugging steadily onward. Bad day at the office again for Van Den Broeck though who lost five minutes and Richie Porte who lost just over 5. Chris Horner and Rui Costa had bad days also, with Papy Horner losing 13'39" and is now 24' off Nibali. 

After two very hard days in the Alps ithe sprinters get to do their thing again on the final day before the second rest day on Monday. 

The Route

So a nice flat stage then for them to amble along and recover from the Alps? Think again. To start with, this is a long stage at 222kms, the third longest on the race. Secondly, there is a chance that the strong winds that sweep through this area could cause consternation and echelons. Think of that stage last year to Saint-Amand-Montrond when it was expected to be a bunch sprint and in the end only 13 riders got to the finish togethere and contested the sprint, won easily by Cavendish from Sagan. 

The stage is mostly a rolling descent away from the Alpine region thoughheading south west until the intermediate sprint at La Galine and from there it is slightly north of due west they are travelling until the finish in Nîmes. There isn't much to say about the route really other than it is condusive to an early break that will probably be reeled in.

The key factor to bear in mind though for tomorrow is that there are thunderstorms forecast for during the day and heavy rain. That could make conditions dangerous on the road and we could see some accidents. Also, as they head west from La Galine they are going to be buffeted by a cross wins that is sweeping in from the Mediterannean sea but which will be a tailwind for the finishing sector in Nîmes.

There is a little pull up with 2km to go until about 800m to go and it then goes slightly downhill to the finish which is outside the Amphitheatre in Nîmes on the Boulevard de la Liberation which is a nice long straight finish. 

Contenders and Favourites

Tomorrow could be a real interesting stage. The favourite for it is Marcel Kittel at 10/11 biggest price, but is as short as 8/13 so there is a big variation between bookies on his chances. He is also evens on Betfair so if you fancied him tomorrow it is a big price for if it was a straightforward sprint. The thing is, this could be a really tricky day for Kittel and he could well be caught on the wrong side of the splits if they come, it wouldn't be the first time he got caught out. 

He is the best sprinter in the race but as we saw in stage 6, things can go wrong for him sometimes. He still looks strong though and was one of the last sprinters to get dropped today even though he was probably only giving it 80% with tomorrow's sprint in mind. The sprint should suit him perfectly though if he is still in there in the last 5kms, a long straight power sprint with a tail wind. 

Lotto Belisol saw their GC hopes fall apart with JVDB's poor Alpine performances so they are back to stage hunting now. With two stages and a yellow jersey in the bag already confidence must be high enough amongst the rest of the squad and they may fancy it again tomorrow. The problem is that André Greipel is sometimes caught out in the finale of stages by incidents when badly placed, look at his tangle with Chavanel the other day, he was way too far back in the bunch. There is a chance also that he might get caught out by Echelons should they form, and also the forecast thunderstorms might cause him problems. 

Peter Sagan on the other hand is the master of these sorts of situations, he was in that little group that won in to Saint-Amand-Montrond last year, he never seems to miss opportunities like this. He got in the break today but did no work and took his foot off the gas once the points were mopped up at the intermediate sprint. He should be desperate to win a stage at this point and I'm sure he will drive his Cannondale team to try to form those splts and echelons. 

One team though that could cause the splits and could dominate the closing stages of the race is Omega Pharma Quick Step. With the likes of Martin, Terpstra, Renshaw, Bakelants, Kwiatkowski and Golas they are sure to try to split things and put the sprinters teams under pressure in the last 40kms or so. Matteo Trentin has been sprinting well (ok, not that 'well' considering he screwed John Degenkolbs chances of a stage victory on stage 12, but on stage 11 he came 2nd in the sprint behind Gallopin and Degenkolb. It may be that they work for Mark Renshaw or Trentin, but with this flatter stage finish it may well be that they give Renshaw a go and Trentin helps to lead him out. Renshaw is being backed too and was as big as 33/1 earlier, he is now 22/1 best and that might be worth an each-way bet. 

Alexander Kristoff's Katusha team are another who are sometimes caught napping and with a flatter, easier day tomorrow it may not suit him quite so much. Arnaud Démare has suffered from nausea today and with that in mind I think I'll be steering clear of him tomorrow, he seems to have suffered a lot over the last few days. Bryan Coquard is one who may be close to the front tomorrow but whether he will have many team-mates around him at the finish is another question. Kevin Reza has been excellent so far in this race, working really hard and he may be invaluable to him again tomorrow to try to navigate a path to the front for the closing stages. 

Another who could come close at a big price tomorrow is Daniele Bennatti - confidence and happiness must have returned to the camp with Majka's brilliant ride today and they could be buzzing again tomorrow. As we well know, Saxo are no strangers to causing consternation in a cross wind, it was they caused the damage last year - no fewer than 6 of their men were in that group that split away with 5 of them finishing in the first 12. Bennati has a 4th (3rd in the sprint) and a 6th place already in the Tour and he could well be one to cause a surprise - 40/1 with Betfred for the first 4 home might be worth an each-way bet. 

Sammy Dumoulin, Haussler and Rojas could also be involved but I think they are 6th to 10th places at best tomorrow. 

It's really hard to pick a winner though, and we may even get a break that stays away if the peloton decides to take an early rest day, but I doubt it. There are too few chances left for the sprinters after this one. I think it is one to watch in play, to see how Kittel is getting on and then getting a decent bet on him at down to 4/6 if we have to in-play with 5kms or so to go, depending on how it's looking. I think Sagan could be right in the mix tomorrow too though and the 14/1 with Corals is worth backing each-way. I'm tempted to lay Kittel at evens but I think I'll hold off on it for now!

Small bets on Renshaw and Bennati at big prices might be interesting too. Watch Twitter for in-race updates too. 

Recommendations:

Peter Sagan - 0.5pts each-way at 14/1 with Corals

Daniele Bennati - 0.5pts each-way at 40/1 with Betfred (for 4 places, 50/1 elsewhere for 3 places)

Mark Renshaw - 0.3pts each-way at 22/1 with Boylesports 

Lay Jack Bauer in play with 4kms to go at 3/1 for 1pt profit

Lay Martin Elmiger in play with 4kms to go at 3/1 for 1pt profit

Match Bets 

Peter Sagan to beat Kristoff - 1.5pts at evens with Bet365

Mark Renshaw to beat Coquard - 1.5pts at 4/6 with Bet365

Bennati to beat Haussler - 1pt at 8/13 with Bet365

Romain Feillu to beat Démare - 2pts at 5/4 with Bet365