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- Published on Friday, 18 July 2014 22:38
TDF Stage 14
Grenoble to Risoul
Saturday July 19th, 177kms
We hit the Haute-Alpes with this absolute beast of a stage. 177kms which contains two Cat 1 climbs and a HC ascent, there could be some big time gaps open up by the end of today. First up are the legendary climbs of the Col du Lautaret and the Col d'Izoard and is finished off by a new climb to the Tour, the Risoul.
What can you say about today's racing? A totally dominant display by the Champion elect saw him extend his lead to over three and a half minutes with a crushing performance that left all his rivals trailing in his wake. As big a story as Nibali accelerating to win the stage was, it was only one big story today, with Richie Porte's capitulation the other major talking point.
As predicted the break didn't have a chance and coming to the last 15kms or so it was all going so well. Rodriguez was struggling and not winning KOM points so my lay at 1.48 is looking ok, I could hedge it back now at 2.24 if I wanted to (not yet). Schleck, Porte, Ten Dam, Valverde and Van Garderen were all in the front group and seemingly going ok. Then Movistar upped the pace and eventually Valverde attacked and it all kicked off. Pretty soon, Porte was going out the back door like a man who just had an anchor attached to his back wheel and all his (and my) hopes of a top 3 placing were disappearing.
Pinot attacked and distanced Bardet and it carried on like that for 10kms with rider after rider attacking and riding themselves in to the ground. Frank Schleck and Ten Dam impressed like I thought they might and landed two very tasty match bets. In fact we would have had 6 match bets out of 6 had Geraint Thomas not been forced to drop back and help Porte stumble to the finish line, with Kwiatkowski, who was well dropped earlier riding past him in the closing stages. So very annoying on that front.
But when Nibali first rode up to Valverde as easy as he did, the warning signs were there. When he attacked and rode away from them and then did the same to Majka and Konig it was just sheer power rather than explosive efforts like you get from Froome and Contador. He just rode faster and rode away from them sitting in the saddle.
So it looks all over for the GC, unless Nibbles has a SERIOUSLY bad day, but that doesn't look like happening any time soon, he is in fantastic shape. But the real battle now is behind - Bardet performed heroics and rode beautifully with TVG to limit his losses to Pinot and hold on to the white jersey, for now. I just turned a profit again today with the matchbets winning 4.5pts but the stage winner bets losing 4.1pts. Disappointing to have 4 out of 6 picks finish in the top 10 but no return on that front.. There's a big one coming though, I feel it..
The Route
They'll be mostly heading south-east on the road to Risoul but as they pass Briançon with 100km or so gone they start on a more sorely route as they tackle the HTC climb of the day of the Col d'Izoard.
The route features two legendary, mythical climbs in the Lauterat and the Izoard. If you don't have your climbing legs for this stage you will be in trouble very early on. The Lauterat may be listed as starting at the 48km mark and going on for 34kms, but the reality is that they start climbing to it more or less from the flag drop. The first few kilometres takes them up the rise above Rizille and then they descend a little in to the town after just 8.5kms. From there though it is more or less uphill all the way for the next 75kms or so.
Along the way they pass the Intermediate Sprint at La Paute after 40kms and then carry on past Bourg D'Oisans and past the base of Alpe d'Huez. No double, or even single ascension this year, instead they carry on heading east and up to the Col du Lautaret. This is a real beast of a climb. 34kms at 3.9% - the gradient isn't really the problem, it's the distance, the longest climb on the race.
As if that wasn't bad enough, they descend for 30kms, which is tiring in itself when the pace is up, and then they start on the Haute Category climb of the Col d'Izoard, a leg breaking 19kms at 6% average. The Izoard is the highest point in this year's race at 2360m, with the first over the top winning the Henri Desgrange prize.
It doesn't start off too steeply with the first 10kms only averaging around 4%, with a downhill section and sections at just 2-3%. From kilometre 10 though it starts to get a lot harder, averaging closer to 8.5% for the last 9kms. It is a pretty steady and consistent gradient all the way to the top. It is a desolate and bare mountain, not quite as bad as Ventoux, but quite similar. The road snakes its way up the mountain and it is the perfect climb for a team like movistar to thin out the peloton ahead of the final climb to Risoul.
Col d'Izoard
After the summit of the Izoard they descend for over 30kms but it should take them less than a half an hour and then it's back to climbing again, this time to the summit finish at Risoul. This climb reaches a height of 1855m and is 12.6kms long, averaging 6.9%. It is the first time the climb will have been used in the Tour, but the climb itself has been used before for other races, most recently in 2013's Dauphiné.
It is a sinewy, snaking climb up to the ski resort at Risoul, with 10+ steep switchbacks along the way. It is a very steady climb though, with the steepest parts of 8.5% coming with just 2kms to go on the stage. Otherwise it's a pretty consistent 6.5-7% the whole way up. It doesnt ease at all all the way to the top though, the last kilometre averaging 7%. The finishing straight is just 120m long so if there are 2 or 3 riders still together it could come down to a tactical move that wins the stage.
Route Map
Profile
Col d'Izoard
Risoul
Contenders and Favourites
As mentioned above this climb up to Risoul was used in last year's Dauphiné, but it was also used in the 2010 Dauphiné. In 2010 Nicholas Vogondy was a surprise winner, but in 2012, it was none other than breakaway man of the day today Alessandro De Marchi. 24" behind him that day was Chris Froome and Andrew Talansky, but then just after them was Richie Porte, whom Froome had been dragging up the climb but had to leave him when Talansky joined them late on.
All in all there were 10 riders inside a minute of De Marchi's winning time, with Valverde, Fuglsang and Rodriguez also in the top ten that day. It was a very different day though with rain and mist shrouding the mountain (right), a far cry from the 29º temperatures expected tomorrow. They should have a tailwind for most of the day though which will help a breakaway, especially on the exposed Izoard and the final climb to Risoul.
What can we expect tomorrow? Well based on today's performance you can't see past Vincenzo Nibali really can you? He's clearly just head and shoulders above the rest of them with his silky smooth accelerations of power that just eases him away from struggling riders. It would have been fascinating to see the contrast in styles between him, Contador and Froome, would have been interesting to really see what level his climbing is at against those two in full flight.
I think though that we could see a break in with a great chance of making it to the finish tomorrow. It is a hard stage to control and a lot of teams will not be interested in working to pull back a break. It was a very hard stage today to Chamrousse and a lot of riders really suffered in the heat. Astana looked under pressure at times and lost Scarponi early and Fuglsang to a crash. Tinkoff-Saxo and Katusha have only stages really to look for and won't be interested in working to drag Nibali and co to the finish.Some riders will have taken it a little easy today with tomorrow's stage in mind too.
I'll start with some names that could get in the break at big prices - some of them may well get involved and give us a run for our money.. I was going to start with De Marchi given his success on this climb in the Dauphiné, but he had a brutally hard day today and it's unlikelty he'll be able to get up the road again tomorrow.
Blel Kadri - 150/1 with Boylesports - he tried to get away today but the early break he was in was reeled back in. With it rising more or less from kilometre zero he could get away early. It looks like he took a day off today too.. Luis Angel Maté has been riding well and indeed came home in 22nd place today, 6'39" down. He may fancy it to get in the break early for Cofidis, at 150/1 with Paddy Power he might be worth a small bet. His team-mate Nicholas Edet has also been active, especially in the opening stages and he is 150/1 with Bet365.
Nico Roche looked to have had a bit of a rest day today as the heat probably affected him, he went backwards early on the final climb but was still spinning a nice cadence and looked comfortable enough when the camera went past him. The plan obviously was for Majka and Rogers today and tomorrow it could be Roche's turn to give it a go. He has been riding really well and he was impressive when he attacked on Stage 12 up the climb. He could look to get in the early break of the day, but also he could look to get away on the Izoard and bridge to the leaders. At 32/1 on Betfair he is worth a win back I think to trade in play. Edit: I just read this morning in his diary in the Irish Independent that he wasn't feeling great yesterday and hadn't eaten enough so 5km in to the climb he "pulled the plug". Hopefully he'll have recovered for today's stage!
If it does come down to the GC men battling it out there are a few scenarios that I think I'd like to back happening. First, it looks like Plan B is now out the window for Sky, so it might be time for Plan N - for Nieve. He has looked very strong and had to sacrifice himself today for Porte. Porte apparently was treated by the medical car for a stomach problem today.. he may have recovered by tomorrow and if so he could well ride well tomorrow and try to take it to Nibali again - he has got form on this climb after all.
On the other hand, if he does have a stomach problem then he may well be weak tomorrow and they might let Nieve go up the road. Either in the early break, on the Izoard or even on the final climb. If he jumps, he might be let go as the top 10 GC men look at each other. He is the 12/1 third favourite so it looks like others are thinking the same as me.. That is worth a punt though tomorrow as he certainly has a stage like this in him.
Valverde rode like an idiot today, attacking too early and kicking things off and then he couldn't stay with the counter moves when they came. He then rode like an amatuer with Pinot, saying he had nothing left and then attacking from behind him. He will surely have been given a bollicking by the DS and will be a bit more tuned in tomorrow. If he rides more conservatively and things come back together on the final climb there is a chance he can win from a small, select group at the finish.
Vincenzo Nibali looks the most likely winner and I am toying with hammering in to him at 9/2. But I have a funny feeling that he will not be so agressive tomorrow, and not only that his rivals will have to work him over a bit better than they did today. One key thing about Nibali's wins are that he gets a good gap quickly with his smooth accelerations, holds it for a while, but towards the finish he starts to be reeled in again. Today for example he only won by 6" in the end from Majka, and in stage 10 he only won by 15" from Pinot when it looked like it would be a lot more. If he does go again his rivals need to try to stay as close to him as possible and ride steady together - if they do, they may reel him in before the finish.
Tejay Van Garderen was impressive today - he is climbing really smoothly but it just looks he didn't have it in the legs nor did he react quick enough when Pinot and Nibali went. He has to make sure he is closer tomorrow and he might have a chance at the stage win but it will have to be a huge effort. I think though that we may see the main GC guys come home a little closer to each other tomorrow. The final climb is hard but not brutally hard and we may see it be a bit closer with tired riders after today's stage and the preceeding two hard climbs also in the legs. If that is the case then it swings back in the favour of Alejandro Valverde - he showed today at the finish the kick he posesses at the end of climbs like this and if he does get to the finishing 500m with the leaders he will be hard to beat.. He is canny enough to get the right line in to the final bend before the finishing straight which is only 120m.
Joaquim Rodriguez is 2nd favourite at 6/1 and I can't see him being involved in the finish again tomorrow. He may get in the early break and take points on the first two climbs but he will run out of gas on the final one to Risoul again I fear. I think he is a lay around 7/4 - 2/1 to come in the top 3. Pinot and Bardet were superb again today and they will be fighting their own battle tomorrow which may be to the detriment of their chances of a stage win.
So a very hard day to call again, could be anything but I fancy a break winning it tomorrow, if not Valverde is worth a small bet to win between the GC favourites. I will be on twitter in play tomorrow afternoon so watch that for in play recommendations too.
Recommendations:
Blel Kadri - 0.3pts win at 150/1 with Boylesports
Luis Angel Maté - 0.2pts win at 100/1
NIcolas Edet - 0.2pts win at 100/1
Rein Taaramae - 0.2pts win at 190 on Betfair
Mikel Nieve - 1pt win at 13/1 on Betfair
Nicolas Roche - 1pt win at 32/1 on Betfair
Alejandro Valverde - 1pt win at 12/1 on Betfair
Lay Rodriguez to come in the top 3 at up to 2/1 to lose 4pts (to win 2pts)
Match Bets
Nibali to beat Rodriguez - 2pts at 4/7 with Bet365
Nieve to beat Rogers - 3pts at 4/9 with Bet365
Peraud to beat Ten Dam - 2pts at 4/9 with Bet365
A treble on the above pays 9/4 - 1pt win
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