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Published on Thursday, 17 July 2014 00:30

TDF Stage 13

Saint-Étienne to Chamrousse

Friday July 19th, 197.5kms 

After the transition stages of the previous days, we finally start to head in to the 'big mountains'.. They may only be hitting the western edges, but with a Cat 1 and a HC climb within the last 60kms of the stage they will certainly know they've reached the Alps. The final pull up to Chamrousse is sure to be a killer, with a peloton already very tired and beaten after two very hard weeks of racing.  

A small profit today thanks to the 3 out of 4 matchbets that came in, with only Rojas losing out to Dumoulin - by one lousy spot at the finish.. if he hadn't freewheeled the last part of the sprint it may have won. Kristoff Vs Greipel was a good winner as was the lay of Greipel to place in the top 3 as he came to grief with Chavanel with just 3300m to go. We'll never know how he would have fared in the chaotic uphill dash to the line, but I was glad to see him not involved as there would always be the danger he surprised and won.

Degenkolb I think was a very unlucky loser and I am pretty ticked off with Trentin for swerving violently in front of him just as he was starting to fly in the last 100m and nearly driving him in to the barriers. At least he was relegated to last in the group but that's no consolation for the bets that went down. Strangely there was little sight of Gerrans at the finish despite him saying that he was going for this one. Instead, his team-mate Albasini, who I have backed a few times without success so far in the race got up for 4th place.

I should have had more faith in Kristoff, I named him as Degenkolb's biggest danger saying how it was like MSR, but didn't back him. I really should have, as 14/1 was decent each-way odds. Sagan was once again a losing favourite so I hope I steered a few of you clear of him too. Incredibly it was his 4th 2nd place of the race! "It's my destiny to finish second!" he proclaimed afterwards. Taking 3rd place was the surprise package in Arnaud Démare, a rider almost forgotten about for today's stage, but was always in a great position in the last 10kms.

The Route

They are heading mostly eastwards on this stage but with a a little deviation north for the Col de Palaquit and then south for the finish up to Chamrousse. Those who want to get away early will have a chance of attacking on the Col de la Croix de Montvieux which starts after just 10kms at Saint Paul en Jarez. This is 8kms at 4.1% and we could see the break of the day get away here.

The next 100kms or so after the descent are practically flat but then suddenly at the 135km mark they pass through Saint Égreve and start up the little precursor to the Col de Palaquit. It's an uncategorised little lump of about 4kms but then the climb proper starts at the 138km mark. This is the first time they will have gone over the Palaquit and it will be a nasty surprise to some who might underestimate it.

14.1kms of climbing at an average of 6.1% is sure to see a selection made among the GC men and better climbers ahead of the final climb to Chamrousse. It has a very steep opening 3kms with kms 2-3 averaging 10.5%. Then there's a little descent for 2kms which pulls down the overall average to just 6.1%, making it a deceptive level of difficulty. 

Kilometres 5 to 8 are relatively easy, then it suddenly kicks up again at 9.9% between 8 and 9, then the next kilometres average 8.2%, 10.5% and 11.7%, the steepest section at kilometre 11. Then it eases a little for the last two kilometres, but surely the damage will have been done at this stage and we'll get a select group that flies down the 17kms to the base of the final climb to Chamrousse.

This is a proper Alpine climb though even if it is not as notorious as the likes of Alpe d'Huez, the Madeleine or the Colombiers. 18.2kms at an average of 7.3% at a pretty varied gradient the whole way up. The steepest sections come at the 3rd kilometre in and the 6th kilometre which both average over 11%. The rest is up and down the whole way with sections of 4, 5 and 6% as well as 7, 8 and 9. It will be hard to get a good rhythm on the climb as it goes up and down so much and some will like this climb whereas others will hate it. The final 1.2kms are pretty flat though at just 3.1% average so if there is a small group comes to the top together there will be a sprint finish to the stage.  

Contenders and Favourites

Favourite for the stage is the leader of the race and winner of the first real mountain challenge of the race so far to La Planche des Belles Filles, Vincenzo Nibali. He is 3/1 generally but as short as 9/4 to win tomorrow so let's weigh up his chances. The first thing you have to think is that if he accelerates like he did on the Planche then very few will be able to go with him. This is a very different type of climb though, at 18kms long. The weather conditions are also going to be very different - the mist and rain of Monday's stage to La Planche is replaced by high heat. 

Nibali doesn't need to attack either really tomorrow, he can play a defensive game and sit on wheels if he wants to as there is still a lot of racing to go, and a large effort tomorrow might not bring a big reward - his acceleration on Monday only gained him 15" at the end of the day. If he pushes too hard on a stage like tomorrow's he might find himself drained come next week's hard stages in the Pyrenees. 

The climb is tough at the bottom, with some 11% sections inside the first 7kms but then the rest of the climb isn't too steep. As Romain Bardet put it "I think if there’s a fight, it will happen in the last kilometers. The bottom of “Chamrousse” is difficult but the final is pretty easy. The heat will be the determining factor." With that in mind, it looks like Astana may want to try to control it but it is up to all his rivals to do something about it - Sky, AG2R, FDJ and Belkin will all be keen to try to stretch it out and isolate Nibali. His team has looked light at times and the likes of Scarponi and Fuglsang may struggle with the pace and the heat tomorrow. 

The French riders have said they'll attack - whether they will or not or just sit on Porte's wheel again, like they did, much to Porte's annoyance on stage 10. This sort of climb will suit Sky's power pushes a lot more though - 18kms of climbing will allow Kiryienka, Lopez, Nieve, Thomas and Eisel to push it really hard for a long time, burning riders off one by one. We are sure to see plenty of attacks inside the last 5kms or so - there are lots of riders that are stil pretty close to the top of the GC, with the top 11 all still within 5 minutes of Nibali. 

Bardet has said he'll attack "It'll be a standard uphill finish tomorrow. I expect Nibali to play in defense. I'll attack, why not, if legs permit. For now, they're good. It was hot today but it'll be worse tomorrow. I know this region well. Approaching Grenoble, it's usually hard to breathe but it should be a bit fresher on the way up to Chamrousse."

But the scenario with AG2R and Bardet and Peraud is hard to work out - will they make Bardet work for Peraud who seems to have been climbing better? He is still a minute behind his young team mate who is a minute and 3 places ahead of him on the GC and also battling for the White jersey.. Will they be happy with a top 10 for Bardet (which he has said is his target) and the white jersey or will they put everything behind trying to get Bardet on the Podium? It'll be decided on the road as they say but it will be interesting to see their tactics tomorrow as they can 1-2 it on their rivals and take turns attacking in the closing kilometres. 

Bardet is 33/1 and Peraud is 66/1 and it may be that Peraud is the value of the two of those as he may well be given more leeway than Bardet, especially with Pinot marking Bardet's every move. 

Starting out though on the day there will be a break go but they will have a long and really hard day in the saddle with that huge flat section in the middle part of the stage. I don't think they have a chance of making it though and will be reeled in on that final climb to Chamrousse.

It looks though to me like this stage will come down one of the following two scenarios - the GC men will all mark each other and a lesser fancied rider attacks in the last 5 or 6 kilometres to possibly take victory, or else a small group of the main GC men sprinting it out at the finish. With the last 1200m or so only around 3% average, if there is a group of 8 or 10 come to the last km together we will see a sprint amongst them. 

First scenario - who could attack? Well Nibali could to start with, even though I said it is possibly going to be a lesser fancied rider. He has been riding with supreme confidence and aggression, attacking rather than defending on Monday, perhaps he wants to show people he is winning this race on merit, and not because the top two crashed out. But I think he'll hold off on that sort of offensive play tomorrow, unless his rivals are flagging badly, he has said that if he sees an opportunity to steal a few more seconds he'll take it. 

JC Peraud may well attack early on in an attempt to make the other GC men like Pinot, Mollema and Van Garderen take up the chase. He may find it hard to hold off these guys though and I think that attack may come to nothing in the end, but 66/1 is tempting - he may well get up the road and has been climbing well enough to maybe TT to the finish as he has a pretty decent TT in him. 

Mick Rogers at 20/1 could be one for the late attack, possibly even earlier on the climb - they may pull the 'rider in the early break who waits on the climb for his man' trick with possibly Roche going on the early attack and waiting to pace Rogers once he gets there. 

Thibaut Pinot has looked very good and he is full of confidence at the moment, with rumours of him signing for Sky doing the rounds, which are sure to stoke him on to wanting to achieve a great result in this race. He has been climbing very well and got closest to Nibali on La Planche. I wouldn't be surprised if he tried something from a long way out, he is keen to pull back as much time as he can, he wants a podium place.. At 14/1 he might be worth backing with Boyles who are paying out on the first 4 places, he is sure to be pretty close to the top 4. 

Second favourite for the stage is Joaquim Rodriguez - and he is a real conundrum at the moment - one day he is dreadful, off the back, tailed off etc and the next he comes to withing a few kilometres of winning on La Planche with a storming ride. He was absolutely out on his feet at the end of that stage though and he was tailed off again today so I have no confidence in backing him at as short as 5/1, we just don't know which Rodriguez will turn up. 

The man who has been a shadow more or less since the start sits in 3rd place in the betting for this tomorrow though.. Alejandro Valverde is 10/1 and he's another who is a bit of a conundrum.. He hasn't done much so far, yet he is still sitting nicely in 3rd spot on the GC. But he hasn't really had his sort of terrain yet and tomorrow's climb is more like it for Valverde. If it comes to a reduced sprint, he will be hard to beat. 

Richie Porte is available as big as 18/1 but I think he will not go on the offensive tomorrow, but if they have stretched Nibali and his team to breaking point he will of course look to press his advantage and try to claw some time back. He was able to solo away from the field in the TDU but this is a different ball game altogether. I think Sky will look to explode it, but can Richie finish it off? I think he could well be in the top 3 or 4 though if things get really strung out, his climbing legs do look good and these steadier gradients are more up his street.

Tejay Van Garderen looks like he is recovering every day and could well look to light things up early on tomorrow. If Nibali does attack and the likes of Porte and Pinot go after him you'd expect Van Garderen to do so too. He has a good finishing kick so could be a contender for podium also. At 50/1 he might offer the value outsider shot.

Others who are far up the betting - Konig - I don't think he will be up there tomorrow, he hasn't lived up to the hype so far this year and I'll watch and see how he goes for future stages I think. Nico Roche is up there in the betting too at just 33/1, and although he looks in great form and has vowed to keep attacking he may take it easy tomorrow ahead of another crack next week. Daniel Navarro finished in 11th on Monday but he was 40" behind the main GC guys. I can see a similar sort of result tomorrow, 11th to 20th. Majka might be working for Roche and Rogers and Spilak might be working for Rodriguez.

Speaking of Rodriguez, I think he is a poor price at 3/1 and I wouldn't be surprised if he loses a lot of time tomorrow. I have laid 4 points of him for the KOM at 1.48, to lose just under 2pts, we may see him challenged by someone in the coming week and at that price I thougt it was worth a small investment.  

Christophe Riblon, Pierre Rolland and Thomas Voeckler are sure to fly the flag for France but I think they will come up short. Rui Costa has bronchitis so forget about him. Of the bigger prices Laurens Ten Dam was one at 125/1 that got me a bit interested, he may give it a go early doors to help set up Mollema for later on, and he is a very strong and capable rider who seems to be going well in the race so far. At 150s on Betfair he was worth a small stake. 

Arnold Jeannesson was fancied by many to go well in this Tour but he hasn't had a great one so far. He could possibly be another (as long as he is still up there) who could attack early on the final climb to make the others chase in the services of Pinot - at 325/1 on betfair he was worth a tiny stake too. He may even try to get in the early break too.

One who could also go well and cause a bit of a surprise is Frank Schleck. He has been riding really well and sits in 25th overall, but 11 minutes back. He could be underestimated and let slip away tomorrow and that could be a mistake. He was only 40" or so behind Porte and Co on the climb to La Planche on Monday and this is a bit more his style this climb. At 80/1 with Bet365 he might be worth a small investment too. 

Well there you have it - no one really stands out as a great bet and I wouldn't blame some of you for keeping your money in your pocket and just enjoying the stage! But of all of the above, I have said a few I'm interested in at big prices - Peraud at 66/1 could well do it - he is a good climber on these kinds of hills and may just escape the net. Ten Dam at 150s and Jeannesson at 325s are the lottery tickets. But I think it will come down to a bit of a stalemate amongst the favourites and we will get a sprint which Valverde must fancy to take, possibly from Van Garderen, Porte and Nibali.

Recommendations:

0.2pts on Jeannesson at 325s on Betfair

0.3pts on Ten Dam at 150s on Betfair

1pt each-way on Valverde at 9/1 with Skybet (or take the 12/1 win on Betfair)

Richie Porte - 0.5pts each-way with Boyles at 14/1 (As they are paying 4 places) or take the 16/1 with Corals or Skybet

Van Garderen - 0.2pts each-way at 50/1 with Boylesports for the 4 places, or 50/1 with others too. 

F Schleck - 0.1pts each-way at 80/1 with Bet365. 

Match Bets 

Valverde to beat Porte - 2pt at 4/7 with Ladbrokes

F Schleck to beat Horner - 1pt at 13/8 with Bet365 

Ten Dam to beat Fuglsang - 2pts at evens with Ladbrokes 

Van Den Broeck to beat Costa - 4pts at 1/4 with Bet365

Ten Dam to beat Rolland - 2pts at 4/6 with Bet365

Thomas to beat Kwiatkowski - 3pts at 4/7 with Bet365

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