Details: Published on Wednesday, 10 July 2013 01:16

Stage 11: Individual Time Trial, Avranches to Mont-St-Michel, 33km

The Tour moves on to it's first individual time trial with a 33km spin from Avranches to the beautiful backdrop of Mont-St-Michel.

cavbash Stage 10 proved to be exactly what I expected in once sense - not worth watching until 10km to go! But the final 10kms were fascinating as teams swayed and surged at the front to try to lead out their sprinters. They all seemed to get it wrong at different points as Lotto lost Greipel, Argos went AWOL for a while and Cav was left with only one man in the final kilometre, and he soon faded too. The resulting sprint saw Cav get a little too close to Tom Veelers, sending him sprawling on the asphalt and cobblestones and whatever chance Cav had of closing the gap to Greipel was gone.

Kittel's kick in the last 50m was super impressive though, surging past Greipel (who had traded to something like 1/10 as it looked like he had won) to win. So we lost out on our win bet on Cav but it was more than covered by the place bet recommendation on Kittel at 11/10 and the place lay on Sagan at 6/4, who finished 4th as I expected.

tdf stage11 itt On to Stage 11 then and the Tony Martin procession - yep, that's what it is going to be I think and I can see him winning this by a margin of maybe a minute or more. He is an awesome time triallist and should be recovered enough from his horrible crash on stage 1 to dominate this. As he said himself 'anything but a win will be a huge disappointment". Or as Sean Kelly would say a "hyoougge disapointment"!) You won't get rich backing him at 1/2 though, it's only for the big hitters that price!

The most recent meeting between Martin and a lot of his rivals was in the Critérium du Dauphiné in early June. On that day, over almost exactly the same distance (32.5km) Martin beat Garmin's Rohan Dennis by 47" and Froome by 52". Others who are competing again tomorrow are highlighted in the top ten table below.

CDD

As you can see, Martin simply destroyed them! With Rohan Dennis gone home after Stage 8 then the next in line to Martin was Froome, almost a minute back. I think it will be something similar tomorrow, Froome is also a superb time triallist as his performances last year showed, finishing second to Wiggins in both of the Tour's TTs and also taking bronze in the Olympics TT. But the tough last few days will have taken something out of him and I cannot see him beating him, even if he has all the time splits. On both of the TT stages last year he was well clear of any of these rivals and in the Critérium he beat Castroviejo by 16", Kwiatkowski by 21" and EBH by 27". I don't see any bookies offer odds on the forecast yet but if they do I might take a look and see if it is worth backing!

The battle for the last of the top 3 spots seems to be the most intriqueing though, with some of the names in the table above very close on form and ability too. Kwiatkowski, Castroviejo and also Svein Tuft are available generally around 16/1 to 20/1 depending on the different bookmakers, but with most of them paying out 1/5 the odds for a top 3, even if you get 25/1 you are not getting a great return on what will only be a place bet for sure.

castro Kwiatkowski is clearly in great form as I have been mentioning and his lack of presence in today's stage suggested he was being wrapped in cotton wool ahead of the TT. In the Volta ao Algarve in February he finished 2nd to Martin in a 35km TT, losing 1'07" but 23" ahead of Castroviejo. Kwiatkowski is around 5/1 for top 3, which I think is worth an interest. Castroviejo is also a great time trialist (is current Spanish TT champion) and beat Kwiat by 8" in the Critérium TT. He is actually a shorter price than Kwiat to place, has traded around 7/2, which is very strange given their win prices - Castro is 80s, Kwiat is 36s! So in terms of value, the 5/1 to place is worth a bet.

Other than those two, Svein Tuft is being backed (in to around 40s from about 80s earlier), probably on the back of the OGE TTT last week. I can't have him in the top 4 though. Normally I would be looking at the likes of Van Garderen and Contador to maybe show in the top 4 or 5 but with TGV injured and struggling for power and Contador not his old self, I will not be touching them.

It is though a stage for small stakes as sometimes shocks can happen in TTs, remember Dowsett beating Wiggo in the Giro.. One important thing to note though is that they start going off the ramp very early - first man is off at 10:28 CET, with Svein Tuft off second at 10:30. Martin rolls off at 12:36, Froome is off at 16:54 and it should take him about 45 minutes.. so get your bets on early if you fancy Tuft!

So back Martin at 1/2 if that is your thing, Froome will probably finish second, but he too is very short at 1/3 for top 3.

Back Kwiatkowski at 5/1 on betfair for top 3.

Watch for my twitter updates tomorrow should a match bet of interest or a forecast market appear! Good luck!