Stage 10: Saint-Gildas-des-Bois to Saint-Malo, 197km
After an incredibly dramatic two days in the Pyrenees, we are served with what will probably be one of the most boring stages of the Tour! 197km of more or less flat transition which, barring some miracle escape, will end up in a big bunch gallop.
After picking Dan Martin at 55/1 for Sunday's stage it can only go downhill from here! That was, I think the biggest price overall winner I have picked in my tipping career and to say I was an elated and proud Irishman on Sunday afternoon would be an understatement! I did back Thomas Voeckler back in 2004 when he got in that break that gained around 30mins on the peloton - I quickly did my maths, worked out the GC and saw he was the 'virtual leader' and backed him at 1000/1 on Betfair to win the Tour.. what a fun 10 days or so that was as he clung on to the jersey. He eventually traded down to about 25/1 which gave me the opportunity to take a profit regardless, with Tommy standing to win me around £12,000 if he had won the Tour!
The stage heads north to St Malo with a run in that is almost dead straight for several kilometres and almost dead flat, just a very slight downhill run to the line. The only slight concern would be that as they take that left turn around the 20km to go mark and start heading west along the coast, there could be some strong cross winds that could split things. But I still think it has to finish in a sprint, the only question being is Cavendish value at 6/5 to win the stage?!
Considering he was odds on, around 4/5 I think it was, to win a tougher stage last week, first reactions are it is better value at least, being odds against. 6/5 is still ridiculously short a price to be taking considering his showing thus far, but I think he will not be beaten tomorrow.. He has had a really tough last 3 or 4 days with the crash, then two brutal days in the mountains - his face when he crossed the line Sunday was distorted in pain.. But he has had his rest day and we have seen plenty of times before how dangerous Cav is when he is 'wounded'!
Lotto-Belisol and Argos are sure to try to boss the lead-out trains on the run in, especially given that it is so straight and flat for the last 5kms or so. Lotto will probably win the battle to get the best 'last' leadout going with 500m to go, as Argos seem to get it wrong more often than not and always seem to start too early and get swamped with less than a km to go.. If Greipel gets a leadout from Henderson, who is probably the best in the peloton right now at delivering his man (Steegmans needs to up his game) he will be hard to beat. But I can see Cav fighting his own corner, jumping on to Greipel's wheel and kicking early - with a likely tail-wind he could be gone before Greipel is let off the leash - and if he is, Greipel won't catch him.
Kittel should be right there too though, even if AS get it wrong in the lead-out, he too has a good knack of getting on the right wheels and I can see him taking third behind Greipel. Forget Sagan tomorrow I think, he will be 4th or 5th at best, so a place lay possibility at 6/4. Also a match bet between Kittel and Sagan should go Kittel's way at 4/6.
Outsiders to consider to get in the mix would be Kwiatkowski at 10/1 to place - he rode superbly on Sunday to take 3rd place ahead of Moreno and Rodriguez so is clearly in great shape. There has also been mentions of Julien Simon of Sojasun as he is from the area as are his team, but even at 260/1 for the stage and about 50/1 to place I'm not interested!
So Cav wins at 6/5
Kittel Place bet at 11/10
Lay Sagan to place at 6/4
Kittel to beat Sagan in match bet at 4/6
Small interest in Kwiatkowski for top 3 at 10/1 or bigger.
- watch for in-play clues and bets on my twitter - @cyclingbetting
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