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Published on Sunday, 13 July 2014 00:30

Tour de France St. 10

Mulhouse to La Planche des Belles Filles

Monday July 14th, 161.5kms 

We may have seen Contador fire a shot across the bows of Nibali with his peformance in the last kilometre of stage 8, but today will be the first all-out war for the GC.. The summit finish to the Planche des Belles Filles comes at the end of a very hard day in the saddle and we may well see the end of all hopes for some with only just over a week gone. 

Tony Martin pulled a stunning ride out of the bag to land stage 9 with a long, long breakaway - first with De Marchi as a companion but dropping him on Le Markstein and riding on solo. He had been away early, getting in the early break of the day on the Col De La Schlucht after just a few kilometres. Amazingly for my picks, there was Wyss, Voeckler, Albasini and Feillu in the  early break of 17 but it was still pretty fluid at that stage and despite taking the points at the top of the first KOM Voeckler dropped back again. 

When the break of the day settled down I had Spilak, Albasini and Feillu in there but they were just no match for der Panzerwagen. In the morning I backed Dumoulin at 40/1 each way with Boyles who again did me a favour by paying out on the first five as Dumoulin took 4th on the day. Annoying though as I also backed him in-play to come in the top 3 at 7/2, Cancellara and GVA pipping him for the first 3. I tweeted with about 15km to go when Gallopin was on the break with Cherel that I was laying him at 2.0 on Betfair for the top 3, I was sure they would be caught and he'd have no energy left at the finish. I got 3pts off and it was exactly what happened, so I rescued something from the stage. Annoying to have 2 of your picks come in the top 9 and not get a return from them.

Big day for Gallopin and France though as he pulled on the yellow jersey of GC leader going in to Bastille day tomorrow. He worked really hard in the last 20kms or so to ensure he got enough time so chapeau on that ride. Well done also to Thiago Machado of Team NetApp who moved in to 3rd spot on the GC, a great result for the small team. 

The Route

The journey as the crow flies from Mulhouse to La Planche Des Belles Filles is only 65kms as the crow flies but on this day they take a horse-shoe shaped detour north through Munster and over a bunch of tough climbs along the way. When Chris Froome won this stage in 2012 it was a far easier route along the way, with far less climbs to overcome along the way. By the time they reach the foot of the final climb they will already have had to negotiate three Cat 1 climbs, two Cat 2 climbs and a Cat 3 climb!

There is a flat run out for 20kms to Soultzmatt to the foot of the first climb of the day, the Cat 2 Col du Firstplan which is 8.3kms at 5.4% and they crest that with just 30.5kms gone. Then it's 10kms of descending and a little bit of flat before starting up the tougher Cat 1 climb of the Petit Ballon, the longest climb of the day at 9.3kms at a painful 8.1% average. 

Then another fast 10kms descent and straight back in to the climbing again on this relentless day of climbing. Next up is the Col de Platzerwasel, 7.1kms at 8.4%, and this time it's a much longer descent down to the valley floor again once they get over the top. Then two little ones in the Col d'Oderen (6.7kms at 6.1%) and the Col des Croix (3.2kms at 6.2%) are just little speed bumps compared to what they have to face in the last 25kms.

The penultimate climb of the Col des Chevrères is a nasty one in itself - it may only be 3.5kms long but it averages 9.5%.. but that disguises a really nasty kilometre with 1500m to go to the top - it averages 14.9% for that kilometre and hits 18% in places! The last 500m are a gentle 3% though. It's a narrow forest road where the riders won't be able to ride more than three abreast. From there it's only 18kms to the finish, of which 9kms are descending. We should see the like of Tinkoff-Saxo shred things again on the Col des Chevrères to set it up for Contador to attack from a reduced group on the final climb to La Planche Des Belles Filles. 

The climb to La Planche is a horrible climb - Thibaut Pinot describes it as a 'Disconcerting climb' - "Whether I've been training or racing, I've never felt good there. It's true for everyone as it's hard to find a rhythm there".

It starts off hard and it stays hard all the way - The first kilometre is 9.4% average with a maximum of 13%, then it eases just a little for the next kilometre to just 6.7% with a max of 11%. The next two kilometres average 9.45% with max of 11% and the last two kilometres average 8.25%. But the last kilometre has a little flat section with 500m to go and then it kicks up to a 20% average for the final ramp to the line.

Contenders and Favourites

Straight to the main bet here, Alberto Contador will be very very hard to beat tomorrow, and I think he has to be backed at 13/8. He has shown on Stage 8 that he has all of his rivals, including Nibali in his pocket. His accelerations on Saturday were not even all that vicious but he still left the entire peloton struggling in his wake. He toyed with Nibali and Porte in the last kilometre, Porte nearly got back on and he did another little kick and left him behind again! Then he looked at Nibali a few times - he was sussing him out and reading him like a book - he had him in his pocket. Without expending much energy he took a few seconds and a big pyschological advantage.

Saxo-Tinkoff looked impressive Saturday - their organisation and execution of the delivery of Contador to the finish was excellent - Rogers, Roche, Majka all did a great job, especially Roche who kicked hard and strung everything out as they hit the steep parts of the last climb. Did you notice Tinkoff-Saxo much at the front today? Did you notice Roche at all? Did you see three of them tailed off early on on the last climb? They are going to blitz it tomorrow I believe and had a rest day today ahead of it. 

They will be aided I think tomorrow early on by Lotto-Belisol who have Gallopin in Yellow - there is a chance that if he can stay somewhat close to the GC men tomorrow he can hang on to yellow - he has over a minute and a half on Nibali. Movistar may help out too as Valverde needs to get some time back and the pressure is on. Katusha may work for a rejuvenated Rodriguez who will be possibly hunting more KOM points (unless he gets in the break of the day). If T-S get to the lower slopes of La Planche with most of their team still intact they will absolutely blow it to pieces I think. They will drill it and set up Contador for an attack inside the final three kilometres - how early he goes is hard to say, but he could kick with just under 3kms to go where it is at its steepest at 9.5% from km 3 to 2 to go. Even if he waits until the final steep parts he could take 30 seconds out of NIbali at least. 

Regardless of when he goes, I think he will just be too good for the rest of them tomorrow and will win solo. Nibali could well crack tomorrow but may stick close to him for as long as possible - I can't see him winning it to be honest so am not interested in backing him at 8/1. If you are a fan and think he will come close, then by all means back him each-way as he could well finish in the top 3 but it's not a bet for me. 

The man I think who could get closest to Contador tomorrow is Richie Porte - He seemed relaxed and didn't panic on Saturday and rode at his own pace on a climb that didn't really suit him to finish only a few seconds behind Contador. There is big confidence in the camp at the moment and they know how to win on this climb. He'll be well prepared and will be delivered to the final climb well by Kiryienka, Thomas and Lopez. He will glue himself to Contador's wheel and will try to go with him when he goes. He may not be able to match the sharp accelerations but he will grind his way back to him possibly when Contador settles back down in to a rhythm. We've been hearing he's climbing brilliantly, let's see if that's true tomorrow. I think he will be in the first three though and the 17/1 with William HIll is worth backing each-way. 

Others who could get involved? Valverde could but he didn't look good enough on Saturday to suggest he will be challenging Contador. He let the wheel go of Nibali forcing Porte to come around him and never got going on the climb at all. Joaquin Rodriguez showed glimpses today that he is coming back in to form, but it looks now like he is chasing the KOM jersey and if so may well be spent by the time they come to the last climb. 

Andrew Talansky has had a rough few days with numerous crashes including one on the descent near the finish of stage 8 on Saturday where a road-side fan helped him get going again. I think he will struggle tomorrow with all the bangs and bumps he's had in two nasty crashes and I can't see him being in the first six home.

One to keep an eye on tomorrow will be Thibaut Pinot - he is a local lad from the Vosges and these are his training climbs - he has climbed the Col de Chevreres hundreds of times. He recounted that he and his friend Arthur Vichot once rode up the climb a few years ago and painted their names on the road that was being used the next day by the Tour de Franche-Comté. "They were all over the place" was how he described them climbing it. He also said that "the last four kilometres are difficult and will out them to the test before the drop down to Belfahy. You will have to be well placed at all times from the foot of the Chevreres or you might not see the front of the race again!"

I think Pinot will have to try something tomorow - the pressure on him to try something (from himself as much as anything else will mean he will probably give it a go on the Chevreres. He is worth backing in the 20s on Betfair for maybe a trading bet if he gets away. On the same point above about his friend Vichot training with him on these roads - Vichot is worth a small bet at 200/1 as he may get in the break of the day and ride away from his companions on the Chevreres. As I said on the preview for yesterday's stage, 200/1 on Pinot e/w for the GC might give us something to shout about today too.

With it being Bastille day we are sure to see Voeckler, Riblon, Edet, and some other Bretagne Seche, FDJ and Cofidis riders go in the break of the day, but I can't see them staying away. Van den Broeck, Van Garderen and Mollema will hang in there as long as possible but all three struggled when the real pace came on Saturday and it could well be similar tomorrow. Out of those three Van Garderen did slightly the better on Saturday, just caught for pace with the strong accelerations from Contador.

Two more who could have a say tomorrow are the AG2R duo of Bardet and JC Peraud. Peraud finished with Pinot in a great scrap for 5th spot on Saturday's stage, which was a bit strange he left his man Bardet behind and raced with Pinot, Bardet's rival for the white jersey. Peraud looked good though and this kind of climb suits him well - it depends on whether he is let go in pursuit of a good stage placing or whether he has to look after Bardet. 

Recommendations:

Alberto Contador - 4pts win at 13/8 with Paddy Power

Richie Porte - 1pt each-way at 17/1 with William Hill

Arthur Vichot - 0.1pt each-way at 200/1 with Paddy Power

Thibaut Pinot - 0.5pts win at 21/1 on Betfair

Match Bets 

Nieve Vs Fuglsang - Nieve - 2pts win at 8/15 - Fuglsang has been suffering from stomach problems, he could struggle again.

Richie Porte Vs Valverde - 2pts win at 8/15 on Porte with Bet365

Match bet Accumulator - Nieve, Porte, Contador (vs Nibali) and Ten Dam vs Horner (Horner struggled on Saturday, Ten Dam easily beat him). The acca pays 3.88/1 - 2pts win with Bet365.

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