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Published on Tuesday, 03 July 2018 13:50

TDF 2018 White Jersey Preview

Like the KOM jersey, this jersey was also introduced in 1975, and this competition has had various criteria over the years as to who were eligible to win it, but it is now just open to anyone who is under 26 years of age.

Since the young rider classification was introduced, it has been won by 37 different cyclists. Of those, six also won the yellow jersey during their careers (Fignon, LeMond, Pantani, Ullrich, Contador and Schleck). One almost won the Giro this year too, with last year's TDF white jersey winner Simon Yates coming oh so close in May.. 

On four occasions a rider has won the young rider classification and the general classification in the same year — Fignon in '83, Ullrich in '97, Contador in '07 and Schleck in '10. The only cyclist to win the young rider classification and the mountains classification in the same year is Nairo Quintana in '13. The only cyclists to win the young rider classification in multiple Tours are Nairo Quintana (two wins), Marco Pantani (two wins), Jan Ullrich (three wins - also finishing first or second on the general classification on all three of these occasions) and Andy Schleck (three wins). Will we see Egan Bernal start a run this year that could blow all of these records out of the water? The 21-year old could well break all records in years to come if the hype is to be believed. 

Simon Yates had followed his brother Adam who won this competition in 2016 in a very close-run contest with Louis Meintjes, just 2'16" separated them at the end. Emanuel Buchmann was 3rd, but was over 40 minutes further back. 

This year also sees another crop of top youngsters coming through, with Bernal the youngest competitor of the lot at just 21 years and 182 days.. Recent form shows that we could be in for another cracking battle for the white jersey, with some of those in contention for it also possibly going to be challenging for a top 10 place. 

Egan Bernal - 11/8

I've talked about him already in the main preview, the young Colombian could be a joy to watch in this race in the mountains, if Sky let him off the leash.. but that is the question.. will they let him off the leash? It may not matter, as even if he just rides to team orders for Froome and Thomas he might well just finish in the top 10 or 20 in the key stages anyway, as he's such a good climber, and that might be enough to take him clear of all his rivals. 

But not only that, he will get a nice lead on the likes of Pierre Latour and Guillaume Martin in the TTT and the ITT, and you can see why he is the 11/8 favourite. But on the negative side, he is just 21, it is his first Grand Tour, and he will have never faced anything like the opening week of this race with the chaotic sprint finishes and the cobbled stage to Roubaix.

Pierre Latour - 5/2

Latour joined the pro ranks of AG2R in 2015 after some fantastic results as an amatuer in the previous year, including 3rd in the Young Giro di Lombardia and 6th place in the Tour de L'Avenir. 

His debut 2015 season saw him finish 3rd to Alberto Contador and Nairo Quintana in the Route du Sud, 7th in the Tour of Austria, 5th in the Vuelta a Burgos and 3rd in the Tour de l'Ain! 2016 saw him finish 2nd in the Criterium International, 14th in Pais Vasco, 12th in Romandie and 3rd in the Tour de l'Ain, before finishing an impressive 28th in his debut Grand Tour, the Vuelta in September. 

Latour sat in 5th place in the Tour last year after stage 4, but the cumulative effects of three weeks of hard racing took its toll on him and he slipped down to 29th by the finish, he struggled on the crucial mountain stages and the final TT, something that doesnt' bode well given the similar finish to this years' race. 

He has been going well this year though, with 3rd place in Catalunya, just 47" behind Valverde, and he also took the young riders jersey. He finished 8th in Romandie, but was 2 mins behind Bernal, then finished 7th in the Dauphiné, also taking the young riders jersey. And just last week he retained his French TT jersey and finished 4th in the Road Race.. He's ready to put up a big fight.

The team will struggle a bit in the TTT, but he should go ok in the cobbled stage, he's a good all-round rider, and he will go well in the final TT too. He will go close I think, but given his collapse at the end of the race last year, I'm reluctant to back him at such a short price for now. 

Guillaume Martin - 11/2

Guillaume who? You might be forgiven for not knowing much about the young Frenchman, as he doesn't get the exposure of his World Tour compatriots, being on the Pro-Conti team Wanty. But this guy can ride.. And is destined for a bigger team in the near future, a good ride in this Tour could see to that. 

No relation to Dan, Martin has been racking up decent results for the past two years with Wanty, and this year has seen his stock rise on the back of some very good performances. Winner of a stage and the overall at the Circuit Cycliste Sarthe, then a 12th place finish in the Dauphiné thanks to three top ten finishes on key mountain stages, including 8th on Mont Blanc, ahead of the likes of Latour, Rolland, Zakarin and Gaudu. 

And then just last weekend he finished 5th in the French Nationals, just 6" behind the group of five who fought out the win. He looks ready for this Tour and the team are fully behind him. Their mission in the first week is to get him to the first mountain stage in touch with the GC leaders, and he will look to consolidate a top position once they hit the mountains. 

Martin hails from Paris, not known for its mountains, but has shown he is well able to climb, his victory in the Giro della Toscana last year ahead of Visconti, Nibali and Bernal was one to mark him out as one to watch. He also won the Espoirs LBL back in 2015, so he should enjoy himself on the road to Quimper. Being from Paris, he's probably trained a lot on the cobbles, and he's done Tro Bro and Brabantse Pijl in the past too.

He rode his first Grand Tour last year in the TDF, finishing 54th, but did land a fine 3rd place on the stage to the Station des Rousses, leading home the main group 50" behind Calmejane. I have high hopes for him in this race, but his TT is a major concern, I want to back him but might do so after the first TT 

David Gaudu - 10/1

Not much older than Egan Bernal, the 21 year old is thrown in by FDJ to his first Grand Tour with high expectations in the absence of Thibaut Pinot. Winner of the Tour de l'Avenir in 2016, Gaudu has been one to watch for a few years now and followed that up last year with a win in the Tour de l'Ain, winning a stage to Oyonnax alongside his mentor Pinot, and an impressive 9th in Fleche-Wallone and 5th in Milan Torino. 

12th in Catalunya this year with a solid, if unspectacular ride, 13th in the Tour de l'Ain, I was expecting something good out of him in the Dauphiné, but a terrible prologue and a crash on stage 2 cost him a boatload of time and that was that. They lost 1'35" to Sky in the TTT, but he started to claw his way back after that, rising from 135th to 45th by the finish, thanks to a fine 15th place on Mont Blanc. 

He will have the whole team behind him, but that team isn't great and is more set up to try to deliver stage wins with Arnaud Démare. He will lose a load of time in the TTT, and more in the ITT at the end, it's not his speciality, so I think he will struggle to justify odds of just 10/1. 4th or 5th to me, no bet at just 10s, give him another few years and then maybe.. 

Marc Soler - 11/1

Winner of Paris-Nice for us at 33/1 earlier this year, he pulled off a miracle ride on the last day to steal the race. What is his role in this star-studded Movistar team this year? Will they let Landa and Quintana do their own thing and maybe assign the likes of Valverde and Amador to looking after Soler for a chance at taking the white? It's the sort of thing I wouldn't be surprised to see them do, and as Soler is such a good climber, he may well be a big danger to Bernal for this title too. 

At 24 he has a lot more experience than the likes of Bernal and Gaudu, and his 5th in Catalunya and 3rd in Andalucia would be enough to convince you that he has a chance of delivering a big ride in this Tour. He finished a decent 48th in his first Grand Tour last year in the Vuelta, with a 3rd and an 8th place finish along the way, but also he finished 35th in the 40km TT, not a bad result at all.

It's his strong team, and his TT'ing that could pull him ahead of a lot of his rivals here, only Bernal probably has a better level in those areas, it might all just depend on what role they give him.. if he's a work horse, he has no chance for the white, if he's not, he might go very close. 

Tiesj Benoot - 11/1

Tiesj is a quality rider, there's no question about that, but 11/1 to take the young riders title against the guys I've named above already? I'm not sure about that.. He will enjoy some of the earlier lumpier stages like Quimper, but he is going to struggle when the road goes up against the likes of Bernal and Latour. His TT is ok, his team have shown sparks of form in TTTs recently, but the only way I think he will win this is to get in a break that takes a lot of time and then limit his losses in the toughest stages.. but his rivals for the jersey won't let him do that, so no bet for me. 

Daniel Martinez - 14/1

3rd in the Tour of California behind Bernal was another young Colombian sensation, namely 22 year old Daniel Felipe Martinez. 10th in the 34.5km TT, 26" ahead of Bernal and ahead of some quality riders, 5th on Gibraltar Road, 30" behind Bernal and 10th on the stage 6 to South Lake Tahoe, he beat some pretty decent riders that week. 12th in Romandie, 7th in Catalunya, 5th in Colombia Ora y Paz, he's had a pretty stellar, if under-the-radar season so far.

What marks him out as a big danger to his rivals here though is his TT ability, he finished 2nd in the Colombian nationals this year, just 6" behind Bernal, and consistently puts in decent rides against the clock. His team will be the weak link you'd think in the TTT, but with Uran, Phinney, Vanmarcke, Scully, Craddock and Clarke, it's not going to be as bad as in previous years. 

And those guys are some seriously talented and experienced guys to have around him, Phinney and Clarke will protect him for as long as they can in the mountains, but he may not need protecting, he could be one of those guys who is in the last group of 10-20 of the favourites as the race whittles down. EF Cannondale don't have a great record of delivering bright prospects, there are guys like Formolo and Villella who promised much but have left Cannondale to further their ambitions. But Martinez could be one of the last men standing I think, and that TT at the end could lift him in to the top 3 in the young riders classification. 

And there are lots of other quality youngsters in this year's race who could have a say - Gianni Moscon, Antwan Tolhoek and Gregor Muhlberger to name a few. But it should be a fantastic battle between the guys above, they all have their strong points - Bernal backed by a brilliant team and capable of delivering a brilliant time trial, Latour with experience and a crafty team around him, Martin with raw talent and a decent time trial, and Soler who has winning experience to fall back on, and a super team who knows how to win competitions like this.

I'm going to back Guillaume Martin, a little now, a little more after the TTT when his price might be bigger, and I'm also going to nibble at Soler, I think he has the quality to finish top 3 here. 11/1 is a decent price, he's only 13/2 in other places. I've just realised though that none of the bookies are offering each-way betting on this market, so win bets it will have to be for now. 

Recommendation:

0.5pts win on Guillaume Martin at 6/1 with Bet365

1pt win on Marc Soler at 11/1 with Bet365