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Published on Saturday, 14 July 2018 19:04

TDF 2018 Stage 9

Arras Citadelle / Roubaix

Sunday 15th July, 156.5kms 

After a phoney war for a week, things get serious now. So serious could this stage be, that we've had all the GC contenders training over the cobbles on over the past 3 months or so, and some even raced on them.   

The last time that the TDF raced over the roads of Paris-Roubaix was back in 2015 when Tony Martin attacked away with 4kms to go from the group that had formed after the last sector of pavé and soloed to victory. He also took the yellow jersey that day, after it was cruely denied him before by one bonus second. Chris Froome had been guided through the cobbles by Geraint Thomas, and even tried to attack from a select group of eight that had formed after the cobbles. 

In 2014 Lars Boom was the winner of the stage from Ypres to Arenberg, but Vincenzo Nibali was the big winner on the day, when the Astana captain surprised everyone with a brilliant ride over the cobbles, aided in no small way by Jacob Fuglsang. They finished just 19" behind Boom, but Nibali gained almost 2 mins on Porte, over 2 mins on Bardet and almost 3 mins on Contador. 

In the end it was not really decisive in the overall from the time gained point of view, as Nibali won by over 7 minutes from Gadret, but it was a strong psychological blow on only the 5th stage.

This is going to be a Sunday spectacular, like watching Paris-Roubaix, and all the better if it rains.. But as I'll be standing on the roadside for the day, I hope it doesn't rain!

This stage and the next three after the rest day will play a major part in shaping the outcome of this race. And two more different stages you couldn't possibly get either side of the rest day.. You will really need to show all-round bike skills, strength and power to still be in contention come the half-way point of this Tour. 

Stage 7 Review

A good result for us today with Dylan doing what I hoped he would do and blasted to another stage win to land the bets for today and also to land the 'to win two stages or more' bets, which I was starting to get very worried about a few days ago. He was immense again, the way he ducked and dived and bided his time was very impressive. 

Gaviria was unlucky, he got a bit boxed in and had to head-butt his way out from behind Greipel, but by then it was too late, DG was gone.In the end, Greipel and Gaviria were both demoted to last in the group for irregular sprinting, meaning John Degenkolb was lifted up to 3rd, with Kristoff in 4th and Démare in 5th, not good enough for our each-way. 

And Sagan does what Sagan does best and took yet another podium in 2nd. Degenkolb easily landed the 4pt matchbet, I thought that was a fantastic bet at 8/11, I'm just annoyed Skybet wouldn't let me have more on.. 

Dan Martin was today's unlucky loser, crashing with 16kms to go and losing 1'15" and a lot of skin.. we might see him lose more time tomorrow if he's in pain, he might just soldier on through the rest day, the Alps and then maybe go on the attack in the Pyrenees if he has recovered enough. 

The Route

Like a mini Paris-Roubaix, this stage is just 156kms long, but is packed with 15 sectors of cobbles, the first of which comes after just 47kms, shortly after they turn north after passing Cambrai. At 21.7kms of pavé it's the longest total amount of cobbles to be used in Tour in the last five times they've included cobbles. 

The route then zig-zags its way north towards Roubaix, hitting a cobbled sector roughly every 6kms, before finishing in Roubaix. But they are not finishing in the Velodrome this time, but outside it, meaning that we could see another sprint finish, should the peloton come to the finish together, which, let's face it, is pretty unlikely.. 

The longest sector of cobbles, sector 9 of d'Auchy a Bersée comes with 52kms long and could be a key sector, it's 2.7kms long.. This is then followed just 5.5kms later by the well-known sector of Mons en Pevelé, which is short at just 900m, but as we see in Paris-Roubaix, quite a tough one. The B Bonus point comes with 18kms to go, but there are still two more cobbled sections to go, first the Camphin en Pevelée with 17kms gone (1800m) and that's followed 9kms later by the final sector, de Willems á Hem (1400m).

From the end of that sector, there's just 8kms to go, with a little hill to get over with 4.5kms left, but it's only about 1.7% for 1km, and from there it's slightly downhill for the last 3kms straight in to Roubaix. 

Contenders and Favourites

This is going to be an amazing stage.. we all hope.. It's what the riders have been fearing and looking forward to in equal measure, depending on who they are. GC men could see their overall race hopes go up in smoke by the first rest day, and others could have pulled a nice advantage out ahead of three tough stages in the Alps. Some might not even make it to the end of the stage depending on how their luck runs on the cobbles. 

There are two races going on here, with some characters intertwined between the two.. The race for the stage, and the race for the GC. The likes of Nibali, Thomas and Fuglsang could be thinking about both, but most of the GC men and their teams will just be thinking about getting to the finish in one piece and without having lost too much time. 

Starting with the stage winner then, and it's hard to look past Peter Sagan once again isn't it.. Two wins, three seconds, a third and an 8th place finish (and 7th in the TTT) shows that he is in superb form. Spectacular winner of Paris Roubaix in April, outsprinting his breakaway companion Silvan Dillier in the Velodrome, he added the king of the classics to his Tour of Flanders win and three Gent Wevelgem wins. 

His bike handling skills are second to none, his power over the cobbles is immense and he knows just when to turn the screw and put his rivals under pressure to snap the elastic. And his team are super-powerful for this challenge too, he will be well looked after at all times and will be at the head of affairs when things kick off.. and if not, they will chase for him. He has to have a massive chance of landing his third stage win of this race. 

Even though Bora have Majka looking good at the moment, potentially a top 10 finisher on the GC, I think Sagan will not be asked to look after him, there are enough guys like Muhlberger, Postlberger, Oss and Bodnar who can look after Majka. My only worry is that he and the team are starting to tire a little after a very hectic opening week..

Who can be his biggest rival? Well it may be the entire QSF team - they have an unbelievable squad here full of potential winners. They have 2014 Roubaix winner, and winner of the Ronde this year Niki Terpstra, who might just be building his entire Tour around this one stage..

We haven't seen much of him so far, he's been conspicuous by his absence at the front of the race, but then again, he's not needed to be on stage's that just aren't his bag. This is far more up his street though, and with the squad they have, he is just one of the multiple punches they could throw to try to land the knockout blow. 

Philippe Gilbert has never won Roubaix, but he has won Flanders, Lombardy, LBL and so much more. He is looking in good form too, he was quite lively towards the end of stage 5 and almost got away from them. He  could be one of the first to try a dig, or if not, can try late in the stage to get away too. Yves Lampaert is one who could attack earlier in the stage and could go with a little group, he's very strong and familiar with the cobbles too. And even Tim Declerq and Bob Jungels could have fun on this stage.

The two who might struggle for them will be Gaviria and Alaphilippe, they could be left behind quite early on, but I don't think QSF will be too bothered about that if they've put in a shift up until they are dropped. 

BMC are going to be working on several fronts though and they'll have to think and react quickly to events on the road - Greg Van Avermaet is still in yellow and will want to hang on to it over the rest day, and we know what he's like on these roads, having won Roubaix in 2017, and taking 3rd and 4th in 2014 and 2013. He might have to ride his own race if they let him go for stage victory, as the rest of the team might be asked to look after Porte, but he's capable of looking after himself anyway. 

He has been riding very strongly so far, but the dilemma as to whether to back him or not comes down to whether they will allow their best cobble man to just do his own thing, or to shepherd their GC hope Porte to the line as safely as possible. And given that the rest of the team are no great shakes on the cobbles, I fear it will be the latter, enough reason to put me off backing him. 

AG2R have an interesting team here too, with Oliver Naesen a master at the cobbles, and Silvan Dillier who pulled off the ride of his life in April to finish 2nd behind Sagan in Roubaix. I can't see Dillier pulling off a repeat perfomance, and Naesen will probably be given the task of looking after Bardet and Latour, they have two men that definitely need looking after here, Bardet really can't lose any more time after his incident on Thursday, and Latour showed he has the legs on the Mur to potentially challenge for the white jersey.

And with Domont out, they are down to just 7 riders, and you wouldn't want to be relying on the likes of Vuillermoz or Frank to look after the leaders on the cobbles on their own.. Tony Gallopin would have been a help possibly, but he has injured ribs, I can't see him being of much use, although he did try to get in a break on Friday.

Normally you'd be looking to the likes of Lotto-Soudal too for a stage like this, but with Benoot out already after crashing, they are without their great hope for it. They still have some guys who could go ok, and they can get involved in moves all day, they don't have any GC man to be looking after. 

Jens Keukeleire could go ok, but he hasn't got a great record in PR, Jasper de Buyst, Marcel Sieberg, and even André Greipel can go well and hang in there for most of it, but I can't see any of them being good enough, unless they infiltrate an early break that makes it all the way..

Another potential stage winner, who might have his hands tied again looking after a GC man is Sep Vanmarcke, what with Uran having lost some time on Thursday, he won't want to lose any more. He's in a good position in the GC now, he'll want to stay there with the Alps coming up. Vanmarcke though would have to be on the shortlist, were he given the freedom to do something. 

But really, with Taylor Phinney (8th this year in PR) and maybe Simon Clarke to look after Uran (and Daniel Martinez potentially), it might be touch and go as to whether he'll be asked to do a babysitting job for Uran. Craddock is crocked and Rolland isn't going to be much use. But if Vanmarcke is let go he has to be on the short list. 

Team Sky - what do they do? Geraint Thomas has a big chance of pulling on the yellow jumper on Sunday afternoon, depending on how the stage pans out, but in order to do so he needs to be right at the front of the race. And I think he is one that will be left do his own thing, Sky will have enough firepower besides to look after Froome, what with Kwiatkowski, Moscon, Rowe and Castroviejo.. And I wouldn't put it past Froome to have targeted this stage to do something, he likes pulling off the surprise, unexpected moves... 

The only other thing we need to consider is what they do with Egan Bernal.. Do they just tell him stay with Froome and try to look after both of them? If he gets dropped, do some of them wait for him? He might be given Kwiat or one of them possibly, with the rest looking after Froome.  

Bahrain Merida have Vincenzo Nibali, the man who turned the equivalent stage to this one on it's head in 2014, coming home in 3rd behind Boom and his team-mate Fuglsang, with Sagan a further 42" behind. He doesn't have Fuglsang this time around, but they have drafted in Heinrich Haussler to the squad to look after him.

He doesn't really have a lot of cobble firepower beyond that, Colbrelli might be able to help him for a good while, as might Koren and Pellizotti, but the rest aren't really built for this kind of terrain. But Nibali might not need them, if he attacks this again like he did in 2014, he might have them all under pressure behind. He said in an interview before the Tour that he has no fear of the cobbles and likes riding them and is looking forward to seeing if he can make a difference on them on Sunday.

Mitchelton Scott have brought a team here that looked designed to give Adam Yates the best possible start in the TTT and to look after him on this stage. The team is packed full of engines, and in Matt Hayman they have the 2016 winner of Roubaix. Hepburn, Howson, Impey, Bauer and Durbridge will form a formidable defensive wall for Yates, but hard to see any of them winning it. 

Movistar will be all about just getting through today unscathed I think, but they have two pretty fragile creatures in Quintana and Landa, neither of which can afford to lose time. Alejandro Valverde is made of sterner stuff and did surprisingly well in Flanders this year, kicking things off which led to Terpstra's counter attack that won him the race. And beside Rojas (who's a very long shot), there's no one on that team who will be doing anything other than trying to survive along with their leaders. 

Team Sunweb have lost a man in Matthews who could have been challenging for this stage, and they'll also I think be completely focused on getting Tom Dumoulin home safely, especially in light of his time loss on Thursday. But they do have some guys who would be considered longshots for a win here if they are let go up the road. Edward Theuns, Simon Geschke, Soren Kragh Anderson and Nik Arndt could all have chances, Arndt's best chance would probably come if they can take a small group to the line without the likes of Sagan and he can then win the sprint.. 

UAE could have a chance with Alexander Kristoff, he can sometimes go very well on the cobbles, he has won Flanders after all, but he also has never had much luck at Roubaix. The rest of the squad will be looking after Dan Martin, as he was going really well until he crashed today, he'll need looking after tomorrow. So it's hard to know what they do with Kristoff, he might be told to just go follow Bora or QSF. 

Dimension data wasted a lot of energy at the front on Thursday for nothing, after being very prominent coming in to the Mur, they disappeared, with Tom Jelte Slagter being their best finisher in 29th place. They do have a few possible candidates for this stage though, Julien Vermote is a likely candidate for the break of the day, or Slagter, With EB Hagen being a possible front-runner towards the end of the race. 

Tony Martin might be one to watch for Katusha, but they don't seem to have a whole lot of other guys to look out for today - except maybe Nils Politt, the big German machine finished 7th in Roubaix this year and has finished 5th in Le Samyn. 

Jakob Fuglsang might be looking forward to this stage to try to pull back some time against some of his rivals, if he can ride like he did in 2014.. But Astana also have Magnus Cort Neilsen and Michael Valgren who could go well here, both are good on the cobbles and are very powerful at the finish if they can get in a small group that ends up fighting it out. 

Trek Segafredo will be looking after Mollema as he seems to have great legs, but they have two outsiders for this too in John Degenkolb and Jasper Stuyven. Degenkob has finished 1st and 2nd in this race when he was at his peak, his win in 2015 was incredible, he was just so powerful and smooth over the cobbles. He was only 95% I was told a few days ago, but also that they were targeting this stage for him and they hope to get him to the finish with a shot at victory. It might be that he is one of the few sprinters left if he can stay with the main move. 

And Jasper Stuyven finished 5th in Roubaix this year, if he can get up front again he has a big chance of a top 10 placing. If he can get in a small group with Dege, then they have a great chance of maybe pulling something off between them. 

Arnaud Démare could be another sprinter left though, he isn't the worst over the cobbles, but always seems to find bad luck. Groupama FDJ don't have any GC men to look after, and Démare has a slim chance of hanging in there and sprinting to the win, so I think they will be all in for Démare for this. He finished 6th in PR last year, and 2nd in the Juniors race in 2009.. He could be a dark horse here, given the roads will be dry and not as dangerous, he might just make it to the finish in with a chance. 

Wanty, Direct Energie and Fortuneo will all have men probably in the break of the day, but other than maybe Guillaume Van Keirsbulck, Damien Gaudin, Dimitri Claeys, Florian Vachon or Sylvain Chavanel, I can't see any of the rest of them being involved.. 

So as you can see, there is going to be a whole lot of minding and babysitting going on in the main peloton and there are sure to be a lot of nervous and anxious guys flying down small country lanes at high speed... The safest place to be is going to be up the road in the break, and with everything that is going to be going on behind, the break might just make it today, if there is the right mix of teams and strong riders in it. 

This is a really hard one to call, as the GC men might reign in some of their team-mates who might ordinarily have a good chance of winning here. But some will be given some freedom, and others won't have to worry about any GC men and it could be these guys who will be going for the win.. I'm going to scatter a number of bets around, involving break candidates, cobble masters and tough sprinters to hopefully see if we can land a winner. I think Degenkolb is a great price at 33/1, I'd have taken 16/1 on him.. 

Recommendations: 

1pt e/w on John Degenkolb at 33/1 with Bet365 (I'd take down to 20/1)

1pt e/w on Niki Terpstra at 8/1

0.2pts win on Nils Politt at 200/1 

0.3pts win on Dimitri Claeys at 125/1

Matchbets

Démare to beat Greipel - 3pts at 8/11

Majka to beat Zakarin, Vanmarcke to beat Phinney, Offredo to beat Chavanel - 2pts at 9/4

Naesen to beat Dillier and Sagan to beat GVA - 2pts at 9/10