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Published on Friday, 13 July 2018 14:50

TDF 2018 Stage 8

Dreux / Amiens Métropole  

Saturday 14th July, 181kms

This time last year they were climbing up to the Station des Rousses, and this stage couldn't be further from that sort of profile. Another flat, boring stage in store, one that only the sprinters are looking forward to. 

Well, it's not entirely flat, there are two KOMs along the way! But they are merely speed bumps in the road, the second of which is 110kms from the finish. It does roll a little bit in the closing 100kms, but most of the last 43kms or so is flat, even slightly downhill. The TDF last visited the town of Amiens back in 2015, when André Greipel outsprinted Sagan and Cavendish, will we see the Gorilla on top again this time? 

Maybe the French riders will have something to say about that though, seeing as it is Bastille day, the likes of Démare and Bouhanni will be going all out to land the 'Fete' win. But are any of them really capable of landing a blow against the top guys here?

Stage 7 Review

Yohann Offredo must have been punished for something he did, as he was sent up the road all on his own in the break today. It was bizarre that no one wanted to go in the break, but maybe not considering it was 231kms today (+10kms of a neutral zone..). His DS said in an interview from the car that he did not want their riders to spend the day in the peloton just rolling along at 30kmph, that they came to the Tour to get in breaks.. but maybe he didn't quite expect Offredo to have to do it alone.. 

But suddenly, chaos again as Trek and Movistar of all teams put the hammer down in a crosswind section and caused several splits. Zakarin, Cavendish and Kittel were amongst those caught up in the splits, and very quickly there was a minute between the groups.. But as Dan Martin was also caught out, UAE chased really hard, the bunch eased up, and they got back in a lot quicker than maybe it could have been.

When that happenend Offredo's lead was suddenly decimated, he was reeled in, and Laurent Pichon took off, much to my annoyance. And that is because I had picked him out as an attacker for tomorrow, had written about him below.. 

And so it rolled on to a bunch sprint, almost in slow motion, the bunch were spread all over the road, crawling along, even with less than 15kms to go - no one wanted to take up the pulling too soon. But what we didn't expect was the result.. Our boy Dylan Groenwegen, who I've backed a few times so far this race, finally stepped up and cruised comfortably to victory. Finally LottoNL did something to look after him and get him in position with 4kms to go and he did the rest. 

Gaviria and Sagan are understandably looking tired after an incredilby tough opening week for them and their teams, they've been going flat out every day so far. Démare got a lot closer than before in 4th, Greipel took 8th place to land our evens in-play bet on him and Daryl Impey was a surprise top ten finisher too. 

And Kittel - 118th today.. He really has been appalling in this race and I'm giving up on him now, I can't waste any more money on him. Kristoff and Cavendish were disappointing too, but John Degenkolb is also getting closer, I'm liking the way he's looking for Sunday.. 

The Route

A pretty straight line heading north-east towards Amiens and the cobbles to come. The route is mainly flat, but there are lots of little rolling hills along the way that will sap energy. There are two Cat 4 climbs early on but they are nothing to worry about and the second one is still a full 110kms from home. As they head towards Montroty and in to the last 100kms the road does get quite wavy, but for most of the last 43kms they are descending gently towards Amiens. They will probably average around 50kms an hour for the last hour here, it is sure to be very fast. 

The B Bonus point comes with just 20kms to go, I think we'll see them all back together before that, and then it's battle of the trains over the closing stages. Most of the last 10kms is downhill, with the road flattening out for just the last 2kms. It is quite a tricky finish they face though on the run-in to Amiens. With 2.8kms to go they turn sharply right, then left. As they come off that last downhill section with 2kms to go they again turn sharply left and again turn left on a roundabout with just 500m to go. The last 500m are slightly uphill, but almost imperceptible, around 1%. 

Contenders and Favourites

Here we go again, another sprint finish, the same result? Or could it be a day that the break finally makes it? A lot of teams will be thinking about tomorrows stage, especially QuickStep, considering they have such a lineup for the cobbles, and they were looking a little tired today. GC teams will want to save energy as they’ll be highly stressed on Sunday, and with QSF and potentially Bora, FDJ, Lotto Soudal and Bahrain also looking to save energy there might be no one left to do the chasing.

So – let’s play the breakaway lottery.. we need to look for strong rouleurs with a bit of a kick at the finish, or even just strong rouleurs who might be able to jump away from companions in the last 20kms. Could be any of about 50 guys, but let’s see if we can find a few to back at big odds – you can count on several French riders and teams to be represented, given that it’s Bastille day..

Fortuneo Samsic are probably going to get someone in the break – Laurent Pichon is one that springs to mind, well he was when I started writing this Friday morning.. Then he only goes on the attack today when Offredo had been reeled in.. A strong rider from Quimper, he’s still not too far from home and will like this profile. He's a massive 750/1, probably the biggest price I've backed in a long time..!

Winner of three races last year, including the Classic Loire Atlantique over rolling terrain like this, he took the French Cycling Cup last year too. I still think he could go again, he only had about 60kms on his own today, a shorter effort than normally would be the case if he'd attacked from the start.. 

Julien Simon for Cofidis is another I like for it, a good, strong rider who can finish a race off as he has a good kick on him. Cofidis are sure to have someone in the break too, they need to get as much publicity as they can as they head towards the region where their headquarters are based. At 500/1, he's worth a nibble. 

Wanty Group Gobert put poor Yohann Offredo in the break on his own today, whatever that was punishment for, he rode all day all on his own.. The DS said in an interview that they were here ‘to ride in the breaks’ and that he was not happy for the team to just ride along at 30kmph all day in the bunch.

But it’s a tough one with them, Offredo was up the road today, and Van Keirsbulck might be saving himself for Sunday, where he might like to have a go. Dion Smith, Andrea Pasqualon and Timothy Dupont are unlikely to go as they will want to be involved in the bunch sprint, so it leaves Thomas Degand.. he tried to go today, but also was on his own and waited. No price for him yet though, we'll see if Bet365 price him up. 

Groupama FDJ might be able to let Tobias Ludvigsson go up the road, he was 2^nd in the Swedish roads and won the Swedish TT championships a few weeks back, he might fancy a day in the break here and has the power to go all the way potentially. No price for him yet though. 

But a bunch sprint finish is still strongly the most likely outcome, and we’re likely to see more of the same again from the main protagonists.

Dylan Groenewegen and his team were fantastic today I thought, they finally took up the mantle of a proper leadout and pulled with 4kms to go.. Like all the other leadouts, it fell apart for them at that bend with 2kms to go, but he recovered, surfed wheels and sat floating just behind all the main protagonists as they hit 500m to go.. He dived through a gap, took a bump from a Wanty rider but floated up to Kristoff's wheel.. You could see he was bursting to get out and open up his sprint, but he was very smart and patient in to the headwind and took as much draft off the big man as possible, before unleashing an unstoppable sprint. 

QSF and Fernando Gaviria looked tired to me today in the last few kilometres, they were caught far back a few times, they came up, they didn't take control like they have been doing and it was all a bit of a mess. It's understandable though that they are tired, they went all-in this week to try to win with Gaviria and Alaphilippe. And now they need to think about saving energy ahead of Sunday for Terpstra and Gilbert. It is very close in the betting between Dylan and Gaviria, but I think all what I've said above swings it in Groenewegen's favour. 

Peter Sagan also looked tired today to me, he was beaten by about three bike lengths by Groenewegen and just about held on for 3rd from Demare who almost caught him on the lunge. Like QSF and Gaviria, it's understandable if he's getting tired, he has been going flat out all week in the hunt for stage wins and points, he was even 8th on the Mur de Bretagne for god's sake, surrounded by skinny climber types. 

He too (and his team) might be thinking about Sunday, I think he'd much prefer to win that than stage than this boring sprint, so I'm leaving him out of my bets for tomorrow. 

It's Bastille day, and an improving Arnaud Démare is 12/1... I thought he and FDJ were much better today too, he was right there at the front in the run-in, and almost did Sagan for 3rd, just pipped in the lunge. I think they will give it a big go tomorrow, and with Démare looking better and Gav and Sags looking tired, he might just land the podium for us tomorrow, and maybe the French fever this weekend will carry him to victory. 

Andre Greipel will be a solid 4th to 9th again I think, but the flatter finish might suit him better, look to back him in play again for 4th to 9th place. Alexander Kristoff led out Groenewegen today but had no match for his acceleration in the end, he's another who'll be 4th to 9th tomorrow I think. 

John Degenkolb is getting closer, and looking stronger.. 6th today was a very good result, but I think I'm going to keep my bet on him for Sunday. Trek are sounding confident, my man in the team said that they are all in for John and Jasper on Sunday, and said to me "He definitely is strong enough. Just the question always remains about tactics".. But he could be 4th to 9th again tomorrow. 

Sonny Colbrelli, Mark Cavendish, Christophe Laporte, Marcel Kittel are all just below the level of the top guys here, Kittel was awful again today, coming home in 118th.. Looks like he probably lost his place, got shuffled back and then threw in the towel again. At this rate it's hard to see him even finishing the race, yet alone winning a stage. 

The rest will not be breaking in to the top 3 unless a big crash takes out most of those named above, so I’m not going to even mention who else to consider.. Your sprint winner comes from those named above, I think it will be Groenewegen again, and hopefully he'll land the 'to win 2 stages or more' bets we've had in the 'other bets' preview. Démare will hopefully run him close. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Dylan Groenewegen at 11/4 on Betfair (I'd take the 2/1 with Bet365)

0.5pts each-way on Arnaud Démare at 12/1 with Bet365

0.1pts each-way on Laurent Pichon at 750/1 and Julien Simon at 500/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

Degenkolb to beat Cort Neilsen - 4pts at 8/11 with Skybet (I think this is a great bet) 

Démare to beat Sagan - 1pt at 9/4

Colbrelli to beat Arndt and Pasqualon to beat Impey - 2pts at evens