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Published on Thursday, 12 July 2018 21:00

TDF 2018 Stage 7

Fougères / Chartres

Friday 13th July, 231kms 

In 2004 Stuart O'Grady won the sprint for the stage win in Chartres, but it wasn't from a bunch sprint, but from a breakaway group that fought out the stage win. But it was more significant for someone who finished 4th on the day, Thomas Voeckler.

The stage was run in stormy weather, with strong crosswinds blowing all day. A decent break got away with 12kms gone and quickly built up a lead to over 12 mins. Two crashes in the bunch with 90kms and 30kms to go saw them slow down and the lead ballooned to over 17 minutes. I remember it fondly, as I quickly did the maths as to who was in the break while watching the lead grow, worked out who was best positioned and took £17 of Thomas Voeckler to win the overall on Betfair at 1000, or 999/1.. 

That evening, Voeckler went in to yellow with his 4th place and held a 9'35" lead over Lance Armstrong. His odds had now tumbled and I was able over the coming days to give myself an all green book, I think I laid Voeckler at a low of around 14/1 or something, I still had him to win about £8000, but also a no lose situation on all the other runners! 

Will we get something similar in today's stage? It's very similar, a flat straight run over 231kms (vs 201kms) but they are coming from the west this time from Fougeres instead of the north-east in Amiens. Everyone expects a sprint finish in Chartres,  but there is still a real danger of crosswinds on this stage and we might well see a different outcome like in 2004.. But will someone gain enough time to take the yellow jersey? We'll have to see...

Stage 6 Review

A break that had no chance, a relatively calm first time up the Mur, then it got a bit crazy. Tom Dumoulin punctured with just 7kms to go, chased (with the help of a team car) but still lost 52", plus another 20" of a penalty for drafting. Romain Bardet punctured with about 4.4kms to go, chased, almost made it back in but cracked on the climb and lost 31". Uran lost 11", similar to the last time up here, Froome lost 8", or 5" to Porte, Landa, Quintana, Thomas and Yates. 

And Dan Martin... why did I doubt him?! You all know me by now as a massive fan of Dan, I would normally have been all over him, but didn't back him here.. His comments post-stage (and pre-stage today) put me off him, I need to stop listening to riders talking themselves down. He was awesome - exploded out of the pack with 1km to go and as Richie Porte was at the front and never chases anything really, he got a gap and was gone. Maybe Porte felt a pang of duty towards Martin after what he did to him in the Tour last year, and let him go..

Yates tried to chase, Alaphilippe tried to chase, but they had nothing and it was Latour who eventually set after Martin, for a while looking like it was Vuillermoz in pursuit of Martin in a role reversal from 2015.. But with Martin hitting 40kmph in the run-in, Latour was not going to catch him. Valverde got up for 3rd, with Alap just behind him and Majka impressing again in 5th. Adam Yates finished 6th for us, good, but not good enough. 

Bauke Mollema was impressive in 7th, Sagan could only manage 8th today and Thomas was 9th. Ride of the day could belong to Roglic too though, he was caught out in the echelons with 100kms or so to go and it looked like it could be curtains for him with a time gap of about 90" at one point and QSF hammering it at the front.. But Kruijswijk, Gesink and Tolhoek did a fantastic job to bring him back, only for him to crash on a traffic island soon after.. But he still managed to finish 10th in the end.  

The Route

A rolling route that passes through the Parc Naturel Régional Normandie-Maine on the way, going over lots of little lumps and bumps on the way. It's a long stage at 231kms, and while it traverses the countryside passing through Mayenne, Alençon and Nagent to arrive at the finish in Chartres they might well find themselves buffeted by the winds that can blow up through central France.

The Côte de Buisson de Perseigne, which is crested halfway, is the only KOM point, and that is just 1.6 kilometres at 4.2%, it'll have no bearing on the stage. The B Bonus sprint comes just 30kms from the line, so we might see the sprinters teams look to try to bring back the break before that point, if the lead is close enough. 

There is a sharp right-hander on a roundabout with 1700m to go, then they descend down to the 1km to go mark, so the speed is going to be furious hitting the last kilometre. The road then flattens out for 500m, before rising up to the line in an uphill finish, nothing too difficult, but still around 3.5%. 

Contenders and Favourites

Could this finally be a day we see a break make it? It's the longest stage of the race at 231kms, so whoever does go on the break today will need to be prepared for a long day out front. Who will do the chasing? Well QuickStep, Katusha, Dimension Data, FDJ, LottoNL, Lotto Soudal and UAE should all be interested in this one so I think there will be plenty of chasers willing to help out and they should reel them in on time for a sprint. 

Fernando Gaviria has obviously shown he's the fastest so far, but that's thanks to his amazing team and leadout too - Max Richeze in particular has been immense, he can pull Gaviria in to position, seemingly no matter how out of position he gets himself! He'll fancy himself again for this one and is understandably the clear favourite. 

Peter Sagan has been incredible of course, with two stage wins and two seconds already, out-muscling the opposition on each occassion, but his positioning and bike handling in the chaos has been a big part of it too. Only Gaviria has been able to get the better of him so far in the sprints, and his Bora team have been superb in protecting him and keeping him where he needs to be to be able to pounce at the end. 

Sonny Colbrelli has run Sagan close twice now, both on the uphill finishes. He has the power, he has been able to position himself well, is it finally the day he can get his nose in front? The uphill finish will suit him more than some of the other sprinters, he is sure to go close again, but he was way off the pace today when I thought he might get involved, maybe he was just saving his legs for tomorrow?

Andre Greipel was fancied by his mate Adam Hansen on Eurosport for stage 4, I didn't think he'd get up myself, but he managed a fine 3rd place, not far off at all. On stage 2 he had started too late and finished 4th, on stage 4 he started too soon he admitted after, but came very close. If he can time it right, coming off of Sagan's wheel late, he could have the speed to do Sagan. Whether that will be fast enough to beat Gaviria too is the question. 

Dylan Groenewegen.. Oh Dylan, wherefore art thou? He seemed to be nowhere on stage 4 again, with no team around him at the finish, yet he still finished 4th.. Is he finding his legs? Will he finally get it right and show that he is, as we thought he was, the fastest sprinter in the race? Hard to know, but he is getting closer and maybe it is time to invest to see if he can pull it off. 

Marcel Kittel was dropped very early on stage 5 (and again today), but not quite as early as Cavendish, but they were never expected to be involved in that finish in Quimper. What was surprising I suppose was just how early they were dropped, they had a long day out the back. His sprint was a very strange one on stage 4 again, he seemed to do all he could to not get involved.. He was floating about 10 riders back, meerkatting over their backs, looking up, looking down, diving left, diving right.

I was thinking "When is he going to get out? When is he going to move up?" But it didn't happen until it was too late again and although he finished very fast, he didn't make the podium again, having to settle for 4th. The uphill sprint shouldn't bother him, I saw him win on the uphill sprint in the Giro in Dublin when he came from a mile back with just 150m to go. If he has the legs, he'll be good enough. But so far it looks like his legs aren't quite there yet. 

Alexander Kristoff has been close, but not close enough, same goes for John Degenkolb, someone in the Trek squad told me that John is 'only at 95% at the moment' - 95% will not win you this sprint. Timothy Dupont, Andrea Pasqualon, Dion Smith,Thomas Boudat - they will all be fighting it out for the 5th to 10th sorts of places

So another sprint, another win for Gaviria is the most likely outcome, unless QSF decide that they don't want to pull to save energy for the weekend.. But if they do catch the break on time and set up a bunch sprint, QSF will just guide him through the last 2kms and deliver him to the last 300m at the front of the pack and he'll probably do the rest.

But there are a queue of guys who are starting to click behind him and deserve a bit of luck, Griepel, Groenewegen and Kittel could all play a part today. And Sagan. Of course Sagan will be there. I'm going to swerve Groenwegen I think for now as they had a really stressful and tiring day today. I'm not sure Greipel quite has it, but I think 7/1 on Kittel is just too tempting to turn down, he'll get it right soon surely. 

Recommendations

1pt each-way on Marcel Kittel at 7/1

In play bet: Take evens on Greipel to finish 4th to 9th with Bet365 (2pts on that)

Matchbets

Degenkolb to beat Arndt, Colbrelli to beat Cort Neilsen and Pasqualon to beat Stuyven - 2pts at 11/8

Greipel to beat Démare - 2pts at evens

Watch out for tweets tomorrow in play for possible finishing positions bets