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Published on Tuesday, 10 July 2018 17:44

TDF 2018 Stage 5

Lorient to Quimper

Wed. 11th July, 204.5kms 

This is like a day in the Ardennes, with a tough, rolling course over 204kms, with five categorised climbs in total to test the GC men's mettle. After a long, tough day in the saddle they then have to take on a 4.8% climb for the last kilometre.

This could be a chaotic day, with all sorts of elements thrown in to the mix - the first 50kms sees them run along the coast, where we could see splits early if the winds whip up. The next 150kms are just a relentless barrage of hill after hill after hill, with two category 4 climbs and three category 3 climbs in 80kms.

They head north, south, east and west during this stage, so any winds that are blowing will buffet them from all angles. This is one stage I'm really looking forward to, it'll be like watching Liege-Bastogne-Liege, but with a lot more GC men in the mix at the finish. 

Stage 4 Review

A break of four with three Frenchman and a Belgian, cue all the jokes about the World Cup match tonight. Cofidis got two men in the break, because it turns out that Laporte injured himself in that crash on Sunday and was not going to be sprinting today. The break almost made it, they held a lead of over a minute with less than 10kms to go, and the big crash that hit the peloton increased their chances slightly. 

None of the sprinters were caught up in the crash fortunately, so no excuses, and we saw a chaotic, weaving, swaying peloton reel in the break with less than 1km to go. No one team seemed to be in charge, or were willing to take charge in to the headwind, but suddenly Max Richeze dived down the left barrier with Gaviria in tow with 400m left and they forged ahead. 

Gaviria pulled out with some 250m still to go and held on brilliantly to land the odds for us, Sagan was incredible again to almost win it after his suffering yesterday. Andre Greipel pulled off a surprisingly good sprint to finish 3rd, with Groenewegen again coming from way too far back but landed 4th place.

As for Kittel, watch his sprint again if you can, I have no idea what he was playing at.. he was moving left, moving right, looking up, looking down, getting on the wrong wheels (Cavendish's), when he should have been glued to Sagan or Gaviria. When he did finally get going it was too late again, he had to settle for 5th. He sprinted like a young guy in his first ever Tour, not like someone who won 5 stages last year.  

The matchbet double and treble landed, which was nice, but it seems Colbrelli went back on babysitting duties today for Nibali, which fucked our e/w bet and the matchbet. Apparently he was saving his legs for tomorrow. He better do something now after that, because I thought he'd be involved in that finish today.

The Route

A wild route that could result in a cracking stage, we could see GC casualties today if some aren't careful. They head northwest for the first 50kms along the coast in parts, briefly dipping inland for a while, but after they pass through Concarneau they turn inland and the route starts to get pretty lumpy. Between 55km gone and 85kms gone the road climbs to over 220m, but the climb isn't one of the categorised ones.. 

Shortly after they pass through the intermediate sprint with 92kms gone, the first Cat 4 after 106kms (1.7kms at 7.1%), and then the next Cat 4 just 7kms later. There are four more little hills before they reach the next categorised climb, the Cat de la Roche du Feu after 140kms, it's short at 1.9kms, but averages 6.6%. Down the dip in to Chateaulin and on to another Cat 3, the Cote de Menez Quelerc'h, which is a bit longer at 3kms and averages 6.2%. 

Another little bump 5kms later, and they almost reach the coast, but instead turn south just before Locronan and start up the final Cat 3, the Cote de la Montagne de Locrnanan, a rather grand title for a hill that rises to just 233m and is just 2.2kms at 5.9%. As they descend towards Quimper they still have three more little hills to get over plus pass through the B Bonus point spot with just 12kms left, as they go up over the Cote de la Chapelle de la Lorette. 

With 4.5kms to go they get over the Chemin de Troheir, and start to descend. The road is a narrow road through farmland, gently sloping, but it's going to be very fast.. There are a couple of tight bends, but on the whole, it's pretty straight. A fast, small group might have a chance of holding on down the narrow descent.

At the bottom of the descent they go right around a sharp roundabout, under a bridge (above) and then the road rises from the 2kms to 1km to go through some really narrow roads, barely wide enough for 3 riders abreast. (below).

Positioning is going to be crucial, you will need to be in the front 30 or so coming under that bridge and on to the narrow roads to have a chance, it will be very hard to move up at that point. 

At the top of the Allee Meilh Stang Vihan they take a sharp left and it then kicks up for the last kilometre on a slightly wider road, climbing in a pretty straight line up a stinging 10% for 600m, then eases back to around 2.7% for the last 400m after a sharp left turn on to the finishing straight.  

Contenders and Favourites

After three sprint stages and a TTT, the race gets a little bit more interesting with this lumpy, energy-sapping stage of just over 200kms. It's up and down more or less all day, with a tough little finish too. It's unlikely we'll see a lot of the sprinters involved, and if they're not careful we could see some of the GC men caught out and possibly lose some time too on that tight and tricky finish up the narrow roads.

As this is a sort of cross between a Flanders stage and a LBL stage, with lots of little bergs, then we have to look at some of the Classics specialists for a finish like this I think. Peter Sagan is the obvious choice, he will love this course, he'll probably try to break it up long before the finish to test the others and then he'll like this finish too. Will the 600m at 10% be too steep for him? Probably not, and once they are over that, they'll be pretty strung out and he'd he a strong contender from what's left at the front of the peloton. 

Julian Alaphilippe is another obvious one, he'll fly up that steeper part, he'll have Jungels and Gilbert and Lampaert to get him in position and he should be one of the first 20 as they enter the last 500m. He doesn't have a bad sprint on him either, so he's another one for the shortlist for sure. And with him being just 7" off Van Avermaet we could see him leap in to the yellow jersey at the end of this stage. QSF could rack up three stage wins in a row here, possibly even four.. 

Greg Van Avermaet was one I pencilled in as potentially liking this course too, the rolling hills could have seen him attack in the last 25kms or so.. But being in yellow probably puts the kybosh on that idea, he's unlikely to attack now.. But he could well be a key player still in that finish, we have seen him outsprint Sagan on uphill finishes, like in St Flour a few years ago.

But also, GVA might be asked to look after Porte now that he's had his day in yellow, Porte is sure to find trouble on a finish like this and GVA is the ideal person to tow him to the line if there are any problems. But on his day, Van Avermaet should be able to stay close to Alaphilippe in order to hang on to his yellow, can he do it tomorrow though? 

An uphill finish after a lumpy day with lots of hills? Well, it might not be the Mur de Huy, but Alejandro Valverde is sure to be interested in this finish. Movistar could in fact have 3 or 4 guys right at the front of this race coming in to the last kilometre - Landa, Valverde, Soler and maybe even Rojas could be involved, but Valverde is probably their best option. 

Sky are sure to have a few near the front too, Geraint Thomas, Chris Froome, Michal Kwiatkowski, Gianni Moscon - they'll all be looking forward to this finish too, and will want to be near the front to avoid any splits that could cost them time.

Michal Kwiatkowski is in the same sort of mould as Sagan and Alaphilippe and I could very well see him attacking in the last 20kms and taking a few guys with him. Depending on who's with him he'd have a good chance of winning a sprint. And Thomas could take the yellow today too depending on how it turns out, so he's sure to be going flat out for the win. 

Alexis Vuillermoz is also one to keep an eye on, he likes these sorts of punchy finishes, the 10% section is sure to be a launching pad for him for a late attack, unless he has been asked to stay with Bardet. There's a good chance though he'll keep his powder dry for stage 6 up the Mur de Bretagne.

Sunweb have two options here, one if Michael Matthews can hang in there, which is slim but not impossible, but also Edward Theuns is a likely candidate on this sort of finish, but his form this year hasn't been good enough for me. Matthews could be a real dark horse for this though, we saw him sprint to victory last year on two tough stages, the stage to Rodez in particular had a similar finish to this one when he outsprinted GVA.

I think he might just about be able to hang in there up the steep part (look where he finished in Fleche-Wallone this year (4th)) and with the likes of Dumoulin and Geschke to drag him in to position he might just be the fastest sprinter left. 

Mitchelton-Scott also have two good candidates here with Adam Yates for the tough steep part, and Daryl Impey for the slightly easier uphill sprint finish. Impey was in good form and I had him marked down as one who could go very close here I think, he has the team to support him and the uphill sprint suits him perfectly.. He did crash on Saturday which was a bit worrying, but he finished as part of the team of five that crossed the line together in the TTT so he must be feeling fine. He's a dark horse for me on this stage too. 

Dan Martin might go well on this stage too, we know what he's like in the Ardennes, he's similar to Alaphilippe and Vuillermoz for a finish like this. He will have to attack hard on the 10% section though and try to get a gap, but that's going to be really hard with the opposition here. 

Primoz Roglic is probably LottoNL's best chance on this stage, he is very strong, but maybe he'd like the final hill to be longer. Tiesj Benoot, Jelle Vanendert and Jens Keukeleire are three guys I expect to be involved coming in to the final 2kms, and it might be that Lotto Soudal take up the pulling to try to launch Benoot in the closing kilometres. But watch out for Vanendert too - he won on a rolling tough course of the Belgium Tour a few weeks back, he could be a real dark horse too at a decent price. (Forget about Tiesj Benoot, he's in pieces after crashes, he might not even start tomorrow).

And there are loads of other guys who could get involved - Jakob Fuglsang, Omar Fraile for Astana, Yoann Offredo of Wanty, Toms Skujins, Bauke Mollema or Jasper Stuyven of Trek, Arthur Vichot for FDJ, Tom Jelte Slagter, Rigo Uran or EB Hagen for Dimension Data, or the Izagirre brothers and Vincenzo Nibali for Bahrain.

But actually, Sonny Colbrelli could be the one that they work for here, he took it easy today to look after Nibali apparently, with the intention of going for it tomorrow. We saw what he can do on hilly finishes already this year with his win on the Hatta Dam in Dubai and the Brabantse Pijl, if he can hold a reasonable position until the last 400m uphill he could well be a major player here too.  

I'm not sure too many of the GC men will be getting involved, but they will be trying to stay out of trouble and finish as high up as they can, as there could be splits and time gaps with that tight and twisty finish. And of the sprinters, maybe Fernando Gaviria and Arnaud Demare might be able to hang in there too, they are both good over hilly finishes (as we've seen in races like Milan San Remo), Bet365 seem to think they'll be up there as they've made them 8/1 and 12/1 respectively, quite short, especially Gaviria. 

It's a really hard one to call, this finish is going to be chaotic and it's going to be brilliant I think. That narrow, twisty bit with 2kms to go to 1km to go will string it out in to one long line and if you're too far back there, forget about it, you won't have time to move out as there is only about 700m left when they turn right on to that wider road, the Avenue Sully (not named after me, I swear).

Even though it looks like a good stage for a break to hang on, I don't think they will, I think they'll have reeled them in by the B Bonus sprint with 20kms to go and there will be a GC battle for that whichwill kick off a wave of attacks over the next 20kms.

I think though it will all be together, or close enough to being altogether hitting the last 3kms, as in we will have a main peloton and maybe some smaller groups tailed off that have called it a day, a lot of the sprinter types such as Kittel.. We may get a very select group come over the top of that narrow road together, led by Peter Sagan, and we'll have an eye-balls-out slow motion sprint up the final hill. 

Sagan has to be fancied, I think we have to have a saver on him, but I also like Impey and Vanendert at bigger prices, but Colbrelli should be up there too. Matthews, Alaphilippe, Martin and Valverde are sure to be close too. 

UPDATE - 08:02

Jelle Vanendert is 200/1 with Skybet and that's worth a nibble e/w, he might be up there, especially with Benoot as injured as he is, Lotto should get behind him. He'll have Marczynski, De Gendt and Keukeleire to look after him and he could go well up that final hill. 

Also my Secret Pro fancies Demare over Gaviria too, he doesn't think Gaviria will be there at the finish and it will be all for Alap and Gilbert for QSF. He thinks it will be like the stage Nibali won in Yorkshire a few years ago, with maybe 40-50 guys fighting out the finish, as they will open it up on the last Cat 3, he thinks.

Also, I like Impey at 11/8 with Skybet to finish in the top 10, if he doesn't win it for us, I don't think he'll be far off.  

Recommendations:

2pts win on Peter Sagan at 3.2 on Betfair

1pt each-way on Sonny Colbrelli at 17/2 with Betfair sportsbook/Paddy Power

0.5pts each-way on Daryl Impey at 50/1 on Bet365

0.2pts each-way on Jelle Vanendert at - well, no one is pricing him yet, I'll try to get someone to price him and report back. (200/1 with Skybet)

1.5pts on Daryl Impey for the top 10 at 2.38 with Skybet 

Matchbets

Vichot to beat Slagter, Van Avermaet to beat Gilbert, Alaphilippe to beat Gorka Izagirre and Colbrelli to beat Magnus Cort Neilsen - 2pts at 9/4 with Bet365

Demare to beat Gaviria - 2pts at 5/6

Romain Bardet to beat Bauke Mollema - 2pts at 4/6

Michael Matthews was apparently sick all night, back Sagan to beat him at 2/5 with Hills.. 5pts on that.