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Published on Sunday, 08 July 2018 20:24

TDF 2018 Stage 3

Cholet to Cholet

Monday 9th July, 35.5kms 

It's only stage 3 but we could already see one of the defining stages of the final top 10 of this race, with a 35.5km Team Time Trial. We saw in the recent Critérium du Dauphiné how riders like Vincenzo Nibali and Dan Martin can lose more than 2 mins over a distance like this. 

But the Tour has been thrown up in the air a little with the drama of the opening stage, Porte and Froome have lost the sort of advantage that they would likely have taken over a lot of their rivals in this TTT. Bardet, Uran, Nibali and Dumoulin must have been very pleased with the way things have turned out already, but also Geraint Thomas, as the one second he stole as a time bonus today should see him take the yellow jersey tomorrow. 

It's the first time we've seen a TTT in the TDF since 2015, when BMC beat Sky by just one second, and incredibly close contest went right down to the wire. BMC have been the  TTT kings in recent years, winning almost every TTT they entered, including two World Championship wins and two silvers in the last four years, but Sky showed in the Dauphiné that they will be a force to be reckoned with here too.  

They simply blew all the other GC rivals teams away, Dan Martin lost two and a half minutes, Nibali just over two minutes. Ok, they didn't have their top team with them in the Dauphiné, but then again Sky will have a stronger team at the TDF too. Their rivals will be under fierce pressure to not lose a lot of time to Froome already on only the third stage, it could mean we see several of the Sky team, maybe 5 or 6 of them, in the top ten by the end of the day. 

Cholet last hosted a stage of the TDF in 2008 when Stefan Schumacher won the TT, but he was subsequently busted for doping. He beat Kim Kirchen and David Millar by 18", with Fabian Cancellara 33" back. 

Stage 2 Review

Well, another boring stage for most of the day, that became the Sylvain Chavanel show as he went on a lap of honour around the Vendée, celebrating with his team manager out on the road at one point. But like yesterday, things got lively as we headed towards the finish, with Adam Yates crashing but getting back in, Démare puncturing but getting back in, Kittel puncturing but not even trying to get back in as it came with 7kms to go. 

That was the end of his sprint, but as it turned out, it was soon the end of Gaviria and Matthews sprint too as they came down in the crash with 2kms to go. It left only a small group of about 12 riders at the front, and the monster, Peter Sagan came powering through to take the stage and the yellow jersey. Arnaud Démare did remarkably well to come from the puncture to almost winning the stage, but he faded to 3rd in the last 100m. 

Sonny Colbrelli was on baby-sitting duties yesterday, he said this morning that he was going to be going for today's stage win and was feeling good.. well he almost was true to his word, he came flying after Sagan and almost caught him on the line. 

All the matchbets won to land a 2.8pt profit on the day, the sprinters left us down though, not that Gaviria could do a lot about it, but Groenewegen was nowhere to be seen again, it's been a very disappointing start to the race from him and LottoNL. It looks like they are all about Roglic and Kruijswijk maybe and Groene will have to scrap for himself, which is a very disappointing situation if so for our Green bets. 

Better news on the 'over 5.5 jersey wearers' thought, we will be up to 3 in 3 stages after tomorrow. Bad news for Astana with Luis Leon Sanchez crashing badly today, he's out of the race which is a real shame. They'll miss him for this TT tomorrow. 

The Route

A start and finish just metres apart in Cholet, the anti-clockwise square-ish shaped route is up and down for almost all the route, but the hills are pretty small, if numerous. Not long after starting they have to climb a 700m section that averages 5%, but then it flattens out a little as they head out in to the countryside. Some of the roads are small, but mostly wide, which should make for high speeds.

With 16kms done they climb a small hill again, 700m at 5% again, then on to the town of La Seguiniere. Up over the Cote de La Seguiniere (750m at 5% followed by 750m at 3%). There are a few bends and roundabouts to negotiate in the last 3kms, but nothing too severe. 

The weather is going to be hot, around 29 degrees, but there will be quite a wind whipping up - 12mph winds will be coming at them from the north east, meaning they will have a head wind for the first third of the course as they head up towards the intermediate checkpoint at Saint André de al Marche, but then a tail wind for most of the way home, bar the two little sections where they turn back north with about 9kms to go and 3kms to go. 

It will mean teams will have to decide whether to go hard in to the head wind to start with so they don't lose time to those that go hard here, or to save some for later when they have a tail/cross wind in the last 20kms or so. 

Contenders and Favourites

BMC have been setting the standard for a number of years in this discipline, and so far this year they have won TTTs in Tirreno-Adriatico and Tour de Suisse, beating Mitchelton-Scott by just 4" over 21.5kms in the former and Sunweb in the latter by 20" over 18kms. There was no TTT in last years' TDF, but they also won the TTT in the Vuelta last September, beating QSF and Sunweb by just 6" over just 13.7kms, their fourth TTT victory in 2017.

Richie Porte will want to get off to a flyer though, he has time to make up on a number of his rivals already, and they have a strong team here to help him do that. Porte is obviously an excellent time triallist, even though he's so small he does't offer much drafting advantage, but his power is crucial to the team's performance. They also have Tejay Van Garderen who is a very good TTer, Stefan Kung, who after winning the Swiss TT championships last weekend is rapidly becoming Switzerland's next Fabian Cancellara, Michael Schar, Patrick Bevin, Greg Van Avermaet and Damiano Caruso. 

They will miss the power of Rohan Dennis though, who had his chance at the Giro, and it's a team that has been built to try to look after Porte in all scenarios - on the crazy opening week, in the mountains, and in this TT. They were beaten comfortably though by Tom Dumoulin's Sunweb in the 42.5km World Time Trial Championships last year, a loss that could well play on their minds in this race, but having said that, only TVG and Kung are here of that team that lost. Is Porte a better replacement than Dennis, who was in that team?

It will be interesting to see the reaction Team Sky get from the French again when they line up for the TTT, it's pretty obvious that they don't have a great 'amour' for the Sky lads. They were also booed heavily at the team presentation on Thursday and at the start on stage 1 and 2. I think he will get a lot more of that in the next three weeks, the French are unforgiving and very partisan towards their man Bardet. 

As for their chances in this TTT, well, they have a seriously powerful team here, with Froome and Thomas two of the best TTers in the world, Thomas proving that once again last weekend by taking the British TT championships. He also was flying in the team that won the TTT at the Dauphiné a few weeks back, beating BMC by a whopping 38". 

On the team also that day were the powerhouses Michal Kwiatkowski (Polish TT champ), Gianni Moscon (Italian TT champ) and Jonathan Castoviejo (Spanish TT champ), all brilliant TTers in their own right. And they are joined by Woet Poels and Egan Bernal (Colombian TT champ), two more brilliant TTers.. This is a seriously powerful squad and they will be desperate to start the race by putting their GC men well clear of a number of their riders, they could put a minute or more in to the likes of Martin, Nibali and Bardet. 

Quick Step Floors have been one of the top 3 TTT teams in recent years too, they always have a very strong and cohesive core to the team. The team they have here is super strong as you'd expect, with newly-crowned Luxembourg road and TT champion Bob Jungels leading the way. Yves Lampaert and Niki Terpstra are two more big engines, and Julian Alaphilippe is surprisingly good on a TT bike, as we've seen in his 3rd in the Paris-Nice TT this year and his victory in the same race last year.

Philippe Gilbert, Max Richeze, Tim Declercq and Fernando Gaviria may not be the best on a TT bike, but there is lots of power there to play their part for as long as they can.. A good TT could put Gaviria close to the yellow jersey. 

Sunweb are the current World TT champions and they have to be respected too of course. Any team with Tom Dumoulin in it is going to be a force to be reckoned with, he'd beat most of these teams on his own. Together with Chad Haga, Simon Geschke, Laurens Ten Dam, Nik Arndt, Michael Matthews, Ed Theuns and SK Anderson, they will form pretty cohesive and powerful unit, Dumoulin, Matthews and Andersen were in that World Champs winning team last year.  

LottoNL Jumbo are one of those teams on the fringes that can pull off a good time on their day, but equally can be a big disappointment. They have brought only some of their big guns here though, as they are focused on Roglic for the GC, no Van Emden for example. They won't want to lose too much time for Roglic's GC hopes either, so expect a big ride from them. 

Roglic is a super TTer, and he's joined by Groenewegen, Roosen, Kruijswijk, Tolhoek, Martin, Gesink and Jansen, no real specialists there, but a strong unit nonetheless. I can't see them troubling the podium though, but will be interesting to see who they are pitched against in the matchbets. 

Bora Hansgrohe - what a powerhouse team they have here, will they be able to pull it together in to an impressive TT time? Peter Sagan is no Tom Dumoulin, but he will give it 100% to try to keep that yellow, you know that. But the likes of Bodnar, Postleberger, Poljanski, Muhlberger, Burghardt, Oss and Majka are all very powerful diesel engines and this course might just be to their liking. They could be real dark horses for the 3rd place. 

Mitchelton - Scott were one of the best in this discipline 5 or 6 years ago, but have dropped down the rankings as their team now focuses around the likes of Chaves and the two Yates brothers. But any team with Durbridge, Hayman, Bauer, Hepburn, Howson and Impey have to be respected, lots of watts in that team. Durbridge and Yates crashed today though, Durbridge looked a bit dazed after his crash, could it affect them tomorrow?

Mikel Nieve is the anchor that will be dropped a long way from home, but they will have to keep an eye on Adam Yates and make sure he's not being tailed off, as he needs a good time here in order to stay in the hunt for the GC, he's already lost time. 

Their team with Yates, Howson and Impey finished 4th in the recent Dauphiné TT, just 3" behind surprise package Lotto Soudal, but ahead of QSF. And their team in Tirreno-Adriatico that included Yates, Impey, Hepburn, Durbridge and Bauer came within 4" of beating BMC in the opening TT over 21.5kms.. So definitely one to keep an eye on, they could be capable of a podium spot here too. 

Lotto Soudal as I said above pulled off a stunning ride in the Dauphiné TT, and that team was almost the exact same team that lines up here, with Marczynski, De Gendt, Benoot, Keukeleire and Vanendert lining up there.. The only difference really, but it's a significant one, is that Victor Campanaerts was in that team, and he's not here, and Greipel isn't exactly a like-for-like switch.. I think they will give it a good go, but also there is a real danger that this team will be looking after itself for the stages to come, Greipel will fancy his chances in the sprint and Benoot, De Gendt, Keukeleire, Vanendert and Marczynski will have their eyes on several stages in the days to come.. 

Astana are a real middle-of-the-road sort of team in TTTs, they look like they should go well, but never seem to for whatever reason. Well, one of the main reasons is that they just don't have very many good TTers in their midst! Luis Leon is going to be a massive loss for them, he would have been a key player for them here. Fuglsang is very strong and will be looking to put in a decent time to keep himself in touching distance of the GC and Gruzdev is three-times Kazakh TT champion.

Valgren and Cort Neilsen are big engines also, but have never excelled at the individual TT game really. And then you have Fraile, Hansen and Kangert who would be passengers on a day like today, just looking to help as much as they can for as long as they can. I think they'll do well to keep the time loss to a minute. 

AG2R don't look like they have a decent TT team at all and Romain Bardet is going to have his work cut out to keep his time loss to under 90" I think. A team with a number of these guys lost 1'07" over just 18kms at the TDS a few weeks back and in the Dauphiné over 35kms, they lost 1'30" to Team Sky.

They've got the A-Team out here though and Oliver Naesen will be a big help, but Tony Gallopin crashed in the French nationals and damaged a rib, he might find it very uncomfortable in a TT tuck. I fear for Bardet, he could be looking at a sizeable deficit on only the 3rd stage, a deficit that could harm his GC chances irrevocably. 

Movistar are going to be interesting. Valverde, Quintana, Soler, Amador and Bennati can TT, the rest can't, but Quintana can't afford to lose much more time so will have to be going flat out. Landa will be an anchor they will have to wait for and they too could be looking at 30" to a minute, possibly even more. It will make it interesting in the Alps though as they will have to go on the offensive to claim time back. 

And that's about all I can see coming close to the top 5, the likes of Groupama FDJ, Bahrain Merida, UAE Emirates, Katusha, Dimension Data and the rest will all struggle at this discipline and it will all be just about damage limitation for the likes of Nibali, Martin and Zakarin. 

Team Sky look like the team to beat, BMC will be close, as should QSF and Sunweb and Bora could surprise a few. I was thinking that maybe M-S offer a little bit of value with that team before today, they looked super strong and very motivated, but I'm a bit worried today's crashes might have taken a little bit of the edge off them..  Sky are short at 4/6, but to be honest, that's an ok price, I think they will crush this TTT. The 4/5 you might get on Betfair is worth a go I think. 

UPDATE - 11.04am: So Bet365 have finally added mulitples so I've added some to the bets below. I think Sky will beat BMC, as they are my pick, and Sunweb should be good enough to see off a QSF team who might well be thinking about the sprint stage the next day too and the Mur for Alaphilippe.. Movistar should beat AG2R, Naesen and Gallopin, two of AG2Rs biggest engines are both struggling at the moment. 

My 'secret Pro' was on to me this morning, he thinks that Katusha with Martin and Politt are over-priced at 11/8 now to beat LottoNL, they have drifted this morning from 11/10 I think, someone must be backing Lotto.. But Lotto are no great shakes without JVE and Campanaerts and they have been all over the place in the first 2 stages. 

Also, Trek - they are down to 7 riders already, and there were talks that Gogl had knee pains and had to drop out the break yesterday. But my source on that team tells me that he's fine, he's rested well and is feeling ok.. but that's worrying, they could be down to 6 pretty quickly if it flares up again, and Dege might just be trying to save himself for the sprints and for Roubaix.. So Direct Energie might be worth a small nibble, even though they are pretty poor too they are riding on home roads and will want to put on a show. 

Recommendations:

4pts on Team Sky at 4/5 with Betfair (actually, 1.8 was never traded on Betfair, I had to take 1.71, but that's still worth taking.)

Matchbets:

EF Education First to beat Astana - 3pts at 4/6

Sky to beat BMC, Sunweb to beat QSF, Movistar to beat AG2R - 2pts on the treble at 1.86/1 with 365

Add UAE to beat Wanty - 2pts on the 4-fold at 3/1

Add Bahrain to beat Lotto Soudal - 1pt at 5.3/1

Direct Energie to beat Trek - 2pts at 11/10

Katusha to beat LottoNL - 1pt at 11/8