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Published on Friday, 27 July 2018 20:48

TDF 2018 Stage 20

Saint-Pée-sur-Nivelle / Espelette

Saturday 28th July, 31kms

Just like last year, we have a time trial one stage from the finish. That TT was mostly flat but with a run up the Notre Dame de la Garde in Marseille, this is a lot more lumpy in general, but has a similar climb of 900m at 10.2%. 

That TT was won in a shock result by Maciej Bodnar, the Pole leading home another Pole with Michal Kwiatkwski leading for a while only to be mugged by just 1" by his compatriot. Chris Froome sealed the GC with a fine 3rd place, but GC 2nd place man Romain Bardet had a nightmare and lost over 2 mins, and almost lost his spot on the podium, hanging on by just 1". 

Hard to see the GC changing much, but you'd think the likes of Bardet, Martin, Quintana and Landa are still going to be concerned about it, the distance is 8kms more than the TT in Marseille last year. On the flip side for the climbers though, it is quite a hilly route, they might be able to limit their losses to less than on a flat route.

But it's not the TT'ers they need to worry about here, they will be fighting out a different battle for the stage win, although Primoz Roglicand Tom Dumoulin are likely to be strong favourites to finish in the top 3 given how well they TT and Froome might be there or thereabouts too given how close he came in last year's TT in Marseille. 

An interesting stat re. the distance of the TT this year - with it being just 31kms, and no prologue, no TTT and no other individual TT, this race has even less TT miles than last year and therefore becomes the Tour with the least amount of time trialling in the history of the race. It will still have an impact on the top 10 of this race though and we could see some last minute heartbreak and winners like we almost saw last year, with Bardet just hanging on to 3rd spot from Mikel Landa.

Stage 19 Review

Epic. From start to finish, there was just so much going on.. Movistar tried moves, Lotto Jumbo tried moves, a decent break got up the road, where Julian Alaphilippe sealed the KOM jersey, Katusha chased hard to reduce the gap, setting up a move by Zakarin later on, and when he went, Majka and Bardet also made moves to bridge up to the leaders, and for a while it looked like they might fight out the stage between them. 

But Lotto started to put the hammer down.. first Gesink pushed for as hard and as long as he could, then Kruijswijk attacked, and there were multiple skirmishes for the next 15kms as the likes of Quintana got dropped, Martin yo-yoed back and forth and Froome and Bernal also were letting gaps go. Majka made one last valiant attempt with about 2kms to go to the top, but it was far too late, if he had the legs he should have gone sooner, not when they were within touching distance of the GC guys. 

The upside though was Majka crested the Aubisque first, taking the 40 double points on offer, and in doing so dragged himself in to 3rd place in the KOM competition and 2pts above Thomas.. and in to the 14/1 e/w money.. Peter Sagan had a horror day, and it looked at one stage at the start of the race like he might not even make it through the stage, his price drifting out to 2.2 from 1.03 last night for the Green.. squeeky bum time for some of those backing him at under 1.05, £45,000 was watched on him below that price. 

Starting the descent of the Aubisque it was more or less altogether, but Lotto, and in particular Primoz Roglic were very keen to keep the speed very high and string things out. Yes, he's a great descender, but I think what also is in his favour is his youthful exhuberance, he has not really had a very bad crash on a descent yet, something that can play on the minds of even the most senior pros when descending at 90+KMPH.

Suddenly Roglic had a gap - Tom Dum complained afterwards it was because a TV moto paced him on the flatter part, giving him a gap that Tom couldn't bridge, even though he said he was sprinting as fast as he could go. Roglic held his lead, even extended it and won the stage very impressively. 

It was very bloody annoying to see Bardet pip Dan Martin for 3rd though, it bust the e/w on Dan (if you took e/w) and also bust the matchbet accas we had with him in it, all the others won, which would have been a nice return. One bloody place. And Herrada rolled home 8 places in front of Vichot of course today to bust that one. Majka and Zak easiliy won their double though to claw something back. 

The Route

The start and finish are only 12kms apart but the riders go out on a zig-zag route north-east of Saint Pée Sur Nivelle. The road starts climbing almost from the flag drop, with the first 4kms averaging 3.2%, but there is a section of 800m right near the bottom that is over 6% average. The next 6kms are a gentle, rolling descent, then it gets a bit steeper but after 11kms they start to climb again. 

The next hill drags on for about 6kms, passing through the first time check at Ustaritz after 13kms, and that hill peaks out after around 16.5kms. Another short descent then back up another punchy little hill and as they roll along the plateau at the top they pass through the second intermediate sprint point after 22kms.

4kms of a descent and they come to the bottom of the toughest part of the course, they'll have to have kept some power in reserve for when they hit this one. The hill itself isn't very long, just over a kilometre, with the official distance on the map given as 900m at 10.2%, but the opening 100m or so isn't too steep, then it kicks up hard, hitting a max of 21%. The top is just 3kms from the finish, most of which is downhill, but as they enter Espelette the road rises again for the last 500m at around 3% average.  

The weather is something to keep an eye on for this one though, we know how wet roads can make a major difference to a rider's time, we saw that in the Giro two years ago when early starters in the dry (like Roglic) took huge amounts of time out of later starters who rode on wet roads. 

Rain is forecast overnight and all morning up until early afternoon. With the last GC riders scheduled to finish around 5.15pm French time, it might well be that the top 10 riders will ride on dryer roads than those who started earlier, with the rain forecast to ease off from about 4pm. There is a slight 8mph headwind coming from the north-west, meaning a slight head/crosswind on the way out to the first time check and mostly a tailwind on the way to the finish. 

Contenders and Favourites

The GC battle is over, and the crowning of Thomas Geraint will dominate the coverage and the headlines, and rightly so as he was fantastic yet again today to easily deal with everything that was thrown at him. There are still places in the top 10 up for grabs though, with only 19" between Roglic and Dumoulin for 2nd place, 13" between Roglic and Froome for 3rd and 3" between Kruijswijk and Landa for 5th. There's also only 35" between Landa and Bardet for 6th, two notoriously bad time triallists!

Tom Dumoulin was probably strong favourite for this stage in everyone's minds pre-race, and even a day or two ago.. If he repeats anything close to his victory in the hilly World's TT last year then he will win. That was over an identical distance to this one, on a rolling course too that ended with the 3.4km climb up Mount Floyen (9% average). TomDum beat Primoz Roglic by a whopping 57", and Chris Froome by 1'21" - and this course probably suits him even better than that one, the climbing part is just 900m long.  

He has been riding really strong in this race and will be going all out to try to hold Roglic off. It's probably impossible to catch Thomas now, but he'll give it a real good go I think and will look to take something out of this race, which has been hugely frustrating for him, what with the puncture and penalty on the Mur de Bretagne stage, he'd be a lot closer otherwise, and maybe in with a shout. But the facts show that Thomas has taken time out of Dumoulin on numerous stages so far in this race, whereas Dumoulin has yet to take a second out of Thomas.

He has to win this I think to salvage pride and satisfaction from the race, and a big ride should at least cement his 2nd place in the GC, he'll be pleased I think to finish ahead of Froome after what happened to him in the Giro.  

His biggest danger might well be Primoz Roglic, and in fact, Bet365 have made him their evens favourite to win the stage. He is pushing Dumoulin for 2nd place and is also looking to hold off Froome for 3rd place. He should be safe enough from those behind him, but he will be going full gas to try to get that 2nd place from Dumoulin.

The World's ITT saw him beat Froome by 24", a pretty impressive result, although he was almost a minute behind Dumoulin. Will he be able to pull a minute back on Dumoulin over the same distance? He has been riding brilliantly, but mostly Dumoulin has been able to match him, so I'm not sure he can swing it by that much. 

Roglic has already won TTs in the Tour of the Basque Country and Slovenia though this year and finished 2nd in the uphill TT in Romandie behind Egan Bernal and of course he won that rolling TT in the Giro two years ago with Cancellara 28" back on him, and notably Dumoulin almost 2 mins back.

But the change in the weather conditions (and a saddle sore for Dumoulin) played a big part in the outcome of that stage, Roglic rode on dry roads, most of the favourites on soaking, slippy roads. He is sure to put in a big performance again though, he has a top 3 on the Tour de France to fight for, and it'll be same conditions for all the GC guys going out last.  

Geraint Thomas is the 5/1 third favourite with 365, and the way he has been riding you wouldn't put it past him to pull out the ride of his life and take the victory here too. He covered every move against him in this race with such ease, he has been just gliding uphill, following and attacking, sprinting to wins, and winning sprints for 2nd like today. British TT champion, winner of the TT in the Volta ao Algarve earlier in the year over 21kms, he might well go very well on this course too, but can he beat the top two? I think with possible wet roads, he'll be just content to get home safely with a decent time and seal the deal. 

Michal Kwiatkowski has been a dogsbody for Thomas and Froome in this race, he has not had a chance to express himself or have any sort of fun for himself in this race at all. Now, this is not going to be fun of course, but maybe it will be a chance for a very good TTer to get some reward from this race? He has ridden himself in to the ground for his leaders though, I think he might well be pretty tired after all the work he has done, but then again he did that in the Tour last year and still came within 1" of winning the final TT. He should be top 10, but I'm not sure he can beat the top two guys here. 

Chris Froome is next, and he is looking very tired to me. He was coughing a lot today as well on the climb, he doesn't look in great shape. But he blitzed the TT course this time last year to take 3rd, it would be just like Froome to pull it out of the bag tomorrow and win the stage.. 

Then we are in to outsiders, with Stefan Kung a good shout if you want an outsider at a decent price to maybe get on the podium, the Swiss TT champ won the 34km TT in the Tour de Suisse just three weeks ago, and was 19" behind Thomas in the Algarve TT earlier this year. He starts an hour earlier than the GC guys though, will the rain have eased off enough to allow him to go full gas?

Soren Kragh Anderson could be another dark horse at a big price of 66/1, he has been TTing very well, including finishing 2nd to Kung in the TDS TT. Maciej Bodnar won this TT last year with a brilliant ride, denying his compatriot Michal Kwiatkowski by just 1".. Can he pull off a repeat performance this year? He should come close, he might lead for a long while as he's one of the first off, but being one of the first off means he will be riding through the wetter conditions and it might work against him to deny him a top 3 finish. 

Jonathan Castroviejo, Bob Jungels and Ion Izagirre are probably the only others that could come close to a top 3 here, it's a pretty limited list of runners really for the win. 

I was suprised tonight to see how the prices opened on Betfair, with Roglic trading at 2.4 and Dumoulin out at 3.25.. I would have almost have had them the other way around.. I know Roglic has been riding extremely well, but so too has Dumoulin and there is nothing to say to me about his performances versus Dumoulin's in this race to suggest that he can pull back a minute on Dumoulin compared to the World's.

They were very evenly matched today, it was just that Roglic descended better. At the prices, Dumoulin has to be the bet, he will be trying to defend his second place, and in doing so he should be good enough to win this.  Stefan Kung is too tempting at 25/1 with Ladbrokes though, he's just 14/1 with Bet365. He might come close to a podium spot. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Tom Dumoulin at 9/4 on Betfair

0.5pts e/w on Stefan Kung at 25/1 with Ladbrokes

Match Bets: 

Jungels to beat Izagirre and Kwiat to beat Castroviejo - 3pts at 1.16/1

Zakarin to beat Kruijswijk - 1pt at 6/4

Kung to beat Bodnar and Martin to beat Bardet - 2pts at 1.2/1