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Published on Saturday, 23 June 2018 17:44

TDF 2018 Stage 2

M.-St-Germain / La Roche-sur-Yon

Sunday July 8th, 182.5km

The second stage looks like being another one for the sprinters, only there is slightly less of the boring build up with this stage being 19kms shorter. Will we see the same outcome though?

It's a very different kind of map to the first stage though, with the route being further inland and almost a circle rather than a run along the coast. The start of the stage is a little hilly, and there's a little bump after 28kms to take them over a Cat 4 KOM point, but the rest of the route looks almost dead flat on the profile..

But there are little hills dotted all over the place, gentle gradients, but with enough pressure it might see the sting taken out of some sprinters legs. It will probably be pretty straight forward for most of them though, and with less chance of winds causing echelons, it looks like the first of a number of stages to switch off until the last 10kms. 

Stage 1 Review

Wow.. what a start we've had then! What was a pretty bog-standard, boring opening sprint stage turned chaotic in the last 10kms. First a crash involving Richie Porte saw him detached from the main peloton, and Arnaud Demare taken out of the sprint. Then suddenly there was a notice on the screen of 'Froome chute' but no sign of a crash for Froome.. until we see he had gone off the road on the right and in to a field.. He was very, very lucky though, he came within millimetres of hitting a bollard that could have made things a lot worse..

As it was though, he was back on the road and on his bike within 9 seconds and joined a chasing group. By the finish Froome and Porte had lost 51" to the likes of Nibali, Landa, Bardet, Uran and Dumoulin, with Nairo Quintana losing 1'15" after he hit a traffic island and damaged both wheels. Egan Bernal also crashed and it could have been detrimental to his white jersey challenge, but in the end he only lost 24" to our boy Guillaume Martin, whereas Pierre Latour lost 2'21", David Martinez lost 2'29" and Soler and Gaudu lost 2'34". 

In the sprint, well the chaotic last 10kms saw a lot of riders out of position and without a leadout, not so Gaviria, who practically had the whole team there for him, and they did an incredible job to string it out, along with Bora in the last 5kms. So fast was the leadout that the other sprinters struggled to get close enough to really land a blow, only Sagan was able to bully his way in to a position to challenge, but he never had the speed to beat Gaviria. Kristoff was closest then but was passed in the dying strides by a fast-finishing Kittel, with Laporte, Groenewegen, Laporte, Matthews and Degenkolb next. 

Groenewegen was nowhere to be seen hitting the 1km to go marker, something must have happened his leadout or something, as they were right in the mix with 3kms to go. He rode his legs off just to get himself in to the sprint, but you could see he was shattered before he even started the sprint. 

So - a head-start then on Froome and Porte for some of his rivals, probably negating a lot of what they might have lost in the TTT on Monday. It makes the race a little bit more interesting and open now though than it was a day ago, let's hope for lots more drama.  

The Route

The stage starts in Mouilleron Saint Germain and starts to head north in to some of the rolling hills of the Vendee, with the first 6kms of the opening 10kms being uphill, although at a pretty gentle gradient of around 2%. After 28kms they go over a Cat 4 hill, the Cote de Pauzauges, but it's almost nothing, 1km at 3.9%.

They carry on northwest, and after 65kms turn left and start heading south-west back towards the finish, passing an intermediate sprint with 50kms to go, and depending on how tight a leash they keep on the break we might already see the peloton reel it in for the points and bonus seconds. 

The last 15kms sees them turn and head north towards the finish, and although it appears pretty flat on the profile, there are lots of little hills over the last 25kms or so. With 4.7kms left they hit a 400m drag at 3%, and with 2.3kms left the road starts to rise at 2.5% for 700m. The last few kilometres are tricky enough too, as they do a funny little loop clockwise, crossing over the finishing straight on a bridge before looping back around and under it with about 600m to go. 

Instead they are now taken past four tricky obstacles (marked on the map), with two small roundabouts, a sharp right-hander and a bigger roundabout that comes just inside the last kilometre. The finishing straight after the roundabout is a false flat of 900m dragging up to the line at 2% gradient. Positioning will be crucial with the uphill finish, you'll need to be in the top 15 or so coming out of the roundabout to stand any chance of victory. 

Contenders and Favourites

So - Fernando Gaviria is the 7/4 favourite for tomorrow, and with the way QSF dominated that last kilometre, and Gaviria sprinted away from the rest, it looks like a pretty good bet eh? Lampaert, Terpstra, Jungels, Richeze, Gilbert.. they were all sensational, just so incredibly powerful.. I think we'll see a lot of this QSF team in this race, there are lots of stages they can throw men at and they could come out of this race with 4 or more stage wins. 

Tomorrow looks like another great chance for them though, it's almost certainly going to be a sprint finish again and it's likely we'll see them take control in the last 3kms as we hit those roundabouts and bends. The slightly uphill finish, like today, will suit him too and based on the way they finished off the job today you'd have to think they'll be very hard to beat. 

But surely the other teams will be able to put it up to him a bit more tomorrow? Surely LottoNL will get men organised at the front to give Dylan Groenewegen a better shot at victory? If this is a bit more of a clearer run to the finish, then there should be lots of other teams fighting it out at the front, which may disrupt QSF a little. If Groenewegen can get Gaviria's wheel, or even Sags wheel, as I think he'll bully his way on to Gaviria's wheel, then he might have a chance, we didn't get to see his speed at the finish today but he did well to get up to 6th from where he was. 

Gaviria seemed to slow up in the closing metres, allowing Kittel and Kristoff to get a lot closer, Marcel Kittel was the fastest finisher of them all, but was also way back when it mattered most. His pace was impressive though and I think there is a stage win in him, at least a top 3 again tomorrow. 

Alexander Kristoff impressed me with his 4th place, he almost landed 3rd, but thankfully, Kittel just mugged him with a lunge on the line to land our top 3 bets. He even said himself before this stage that it normally takes him a few stages, sometimes in to the second week to get going, so to see him fighting it out for the win is interesting.. was it just a poor sprint, or is he in better form than usual?

John Degenkolb got a great tow in to the last 300m from Koen de Kort, but he lost his nerve again when Sagan barged past him and gave him a little shoulder. He didn't have the speed anyway and faded away.. but if de Kort can do that again tomorrow he might go closer and should beat Matthews. Christophe Laporte sprinted well to take 5th, comfortably landing the late 'to finish in the top 10' bet I added this morning, he should be top 10 again tomorrow and if he's anything like 8/11 I'll be backing him again. 

And that's about it really, Cavendish was miles off, Demare must have taken a knock or something in that crash as he rolled home so gingerly, didn't really make any effort to try to get back in, but then again, his chances were pretty slim as the pace was so high at the front. Andre Greipel also was nowhere near, his leadout also fell apart and he was left behind by the Quick-Step express, same with Colbrelli. 

It looks like Gaviria will be very hard to beat again, but I am not convinced that he'll have it all his own way so easily tomorrow. But I can't call Gav or Groenewegen with confidence..  Kittel to finish in the top 3 is evens for tomorrow, I'm going to back that, and I think we can shape a bet on Betfair, if that's your sort of thing where we get around 11/10 on Gaviria winning and scratch if Groenewegen does by backing Gav for 1.5pts at 7/4 and Groen for 0.4pts at 4/1. Not really a stage to get stuck in to I think.. 

Recommendations:

2pts on Kittel to finish in the top 3 at evens

1.46pts on Gaviria at 2.74 and 0.36pts on Groenewegen at 5.0 on betfair to win 1pt if Gav wins or your money back if Groenewegen wins.. 

Will add top 10 bets tomorrow if any interest me. 

Matchbets:

Gaviria to beat Kittel, Sagan to beat Demare and Colbrelli to beat Cort Neilsen - 2pts at 2.1/1 with 365

Greipel to beat Cavendish - 1.2pts at 5/6

Degenkolb to beat Matthews - 2pts at 8/11