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Published on Thursday, 26 July 2018 21:48

TDF 2016 Stage 19

Lourdes / Lauruns

Friday 27th July, 200.5kms

After a brief soujourn to the flatlands, this is a proper Pyrenéan stage with six categorised climbs that total 4,800m of altitude gain. But the winner might be the one who descends off the top of the Aubisque to Lauruns the fastest. 

A start in Lourdes, Tom Dumoulin and the rest will be looking for some kind of miracle to get back in the race with just 3 stages to go. It's the last chance also for those looking to win a stage in the mountains, as this is followed by a TT and the sprint stage in Paris. And what a brilliant stage this could be - after a rolling, mostly flat opening 60kms, the big hills come thick and fast over the next 120kms, taking in some of the most iconic climbs of the Pyrenées one after the other.  

This queen stage will be a battle between the breakaway men and the GC guys, but with the GC pretty much wrapped up for Thomas, it's likely that Sky just tries to control the race, while up front the break gets to fight out the stage. The fact that it doesn't end at the top of the Aubisque, but rather 20kms later at the bottom of the descent could well mean that the break makes it all the way. 

One of the climbs they go over is the Col d'Aspin, a climb that has featured in the Tour on a number of occassions, but it has never finished a stage at the summit, but descends to the Lac du Payolle. Steve Cummings was part of a huge break that got away on stage 7 in 2015 and after it started to fall apart with about 70kms to go, Cummings went with Matti Breschel, Danni Navarro and Antoine Duschene..

Shortly before the Aspin, Cummings surprised them with a powerful attack they couldn't follow and he soloed to victory. The stage also saw the yellow jersey strangely be let go in the break, but as Greg Van Avermaet was no threat overall, the GC men were happy to let him go have some fun. He finished 5th on the stage. 

The last time they climbed over the Col d'Aubisque was in 2016, when Robert Gesink took one of his few big victories, when he won on the Aubisque, after ascending from Lauruns, up the climb they will be descending down at the finish on this stage. And in 2012 Thomas Voeckler was first over the top, and first at the finish too to take a famous stage victory. 

Stage 18 Review

A masterclass today from FDJ and Arnaud Démare on how to win a stage, FDJ were on it from the very start of today's stage, chasing down every break that tried to get up to the initial break of five that got away. They were happy with just five in the break, they were happy to keep it on a very tight leash, to the point that it never really got more than about two and a half minutes on the peloton, a pretty impressive job by the team.

It was very disappointing to get only five weak candidates up the road, I really thought (and I wasn't alone here it would seem looking at Twitter this afternoon) that the break would be big and would make it.. but no, depsite it being the last chance for most guys, they were unable to get up the road, there's a lot of tiredness in the peloton now. 

And remarkably, Peter Sagan started to appear near the front as the kilometres ticked down, so much so that he went to about 4/7 to finish in the first 3 (I know as I was laying it) and to evens to win the stage.. incredibly foolish if you ask me, considering how battered he was.. In the end, he faded out of it, he just didn't have the strength to contest the stage win and it was Arnaud Démare who was released with 200m to go, and despite deviating a little off his line to push Laporte out to the middle of the road, he held to take the victory..  

It meant another bet in my 'other bets' landed though, we had 2pts at 5/6 Démare would win a stage, had basically given up on that one.. It also means that our each-way bet on him at 20/1 for the points is back on as he moved up to 3rd. Just as well as the bets today were pretty terrible, the break failing screwed us totally. Lamapert miraculously beat Van Rensburg, but Colbrelli sprinted very well to finish 5th. 

The big GC news was that Nairo Quintana hit the dirt today, and he was complaining afterwards of pain in his hand, that was affecting his ability to change gears, and he also hurt his shoulder and ankle.. but he says he still hopes to give it everything tomorrow.. Such a shame, he was one guy who could have really set things alight.

The KOM competition is basically over, but there are something like 75pts on offer tomorrow, with 40 alone on the Aubisque.. If Warren Barguil has the legs, takes all the points and Alaphilippe doesn't make the break, he wins the jersey! Simple!

The Route

This is a cracker of a stage to finish off the climbing in the 2018 Tour. They start from Lourdes, where lots of holy water will be splashed on bikes before the start, as riders pray for a safe and solid ride to the finish some 200kms later. It's going to be a brutally long stage and the grupetto boys better be careful they don't miss the time cut.. Arnaud Démare will probably be ok though, he never seems to miss a time cut no matter how early he is dropped.

After a relatively flat opening 60kms (it still contains two Cat 4 climbs, one that starts after just 5.2kms), the race heads south towards the Pyrenées and passes through the sprint point at Sarrancolin after 60kms. From there the complexion of the race changes as they almost immediately start climbing the first Cat 1 of the day, the Col d'Aspin, which is 12kms at 6.5%, but as Steve Cummings showed when he soloed to victory, not too hard a climb at all. 

12kms of a descent and then on to the Souvenir Jacques Godet climb of the race, the 2,115m high, Hors Category climb of the Col du Tourmalet. This is 17.1kms at 7.3%, a very long and hard climb, but in fact, if you exclude the slightly easier opening 6kms, it averages over 9% for the remaining 11kms of the climb, with parts hitting 10%. 

A very long and twisty descent off the Tourmalet, over 35kms in total, takes them on to the start of the multiple hill challenge that culminates in the Col d'Aubisque. From the valley at the bottom, it's more than 36kms to the top of the Aubisque, but along the way they first have to get over the Col des Borderes, a Cat 2 climb that 8.6kms at 5.8% (but hits 10% near the top), then they descend briefly for 4.5kms before starting on the Col d'Aubisque.

The HC Aubisque is officially given as 16.6kms at 4.9%, but really it's a climb in two parts - the first part is up to the Col du Soulor, which is 7kms at 8.4%, then they descend for 2kms, have a false flat for 2kms and then 3kms at only around 3.7% average. The last 3kms of the Aubisque average a steady 7%. From the top there are exactly 20kms to the finish, all downhill, but with 3kms to go the road rises up a little for about 800m before descending again to the finish line.  

Contenders and Favourites

Another day for the break you’d think, we’ll probably get two races going on at once here again, one for the stage win and one for the GC battle. Sky are the only team able to truly control the peloton, and they will be happy for the break to go and take all the bonus seconds en-route.

Also, like today's stage with the baroudeurs, it's last chance saloon for the climbers and breakaway artists, so expect a big break again of 30 or so riders trying to get away. It might take up to 40kms to form though, the first Cat 4 is very short, and we could see lots of attempts go and fail, before maybe it's made stick on the second Cat 4, which is a bit longer at 3.4kms.

So we're back to casting the net far and wide and hoping we'll catch a few fish. Rafal Majka has to be top of the list I think, he's been climbing really well in the race so far, and was a little unlucky on Sunday when he was caught and dropped in the run-in after a strong display of climbing. He will want to try to take a stage win as he has been riding so well, and a stage like this is right up his street. But he'll need to get away solo I think to win it.

Julian Alaphilippe might try to go with him to seal the mountains jersey, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him dropped on the Tourmalet, that's quite a beast of a climb, he may not be able to stay with the best climbers if they put the hammer down to try to rid him and his like. 

Adam Yates was desperately unlucky on Tuesday, but the likelihood is that Alaphilippe would have caught him and beat him anyway, as he's such a good descender and finisher. This is another day that looks perfect for Yates, he and Majka could be two of the strongest on this stage and could ride away from the rest, even as early as the Tourmalet. He is sore apparently though, but starting to get better, he might not be 100% and I think you have to be 100% to win this stage. 

And M-S have another candidate for this stage in Mikel Nieve, he should, on paper anyway, like this stage, but he has disappointed me a little in recent stages that he has been unable to stay anywhere near the better climbers, it would worry me a little if backing him at such short odds for tomorrow, I'd want double the 16/1 he is.. 

Movistar have been sending men up the road in every attack, and as a result are now leading the Teams classification by over 24 mins. They are sure to send someone up the road again, in case Quintana does take off on another miracle ride and tries to claw his way on to the podium, but after his crash today, maybe that won’t be possible, so they’ll definitely send men in the break I think, to see if they can pull off the stage win if the break sticks.

The man with the best chance maybe of staying the course for them could be Marc Soler, he's been on the attack quite a lot, but at times then having to wait up for the likes of Quintana. He has been working really hard for the team and maybe he'll get his reward tomorrow. 

Darwin Atapuma has been active too in recent days, with Dan Martin sending him up the road a few times, and he looked strong today when he was put to work at the front for Kristoff. Or alternatively, Kristian Durasek rode well on stage 16 in the break, finishing 20^th in the end, it was his birthday today, he might try to get in the break again tomorrow.

Bahrain are sure to have some guys in the break, with Ion and Gorka Izagirre the two most likely, but I wouldn’t rule out Domenico Pozzovivo from getting in the break either, he was up there on the attack on Sunday and was with the lead group heading to the finish until the three breakers got away to fight out the stage, he finished 6^th in the end. He looks like he might have the climbing legs, but it’s the descending that could see him lose out, but he should go close. Gorka is a better finisher maybe if they do get in the break, I can see him finish ahead of Pozzo, so he might just land a podium spot. 

Astana – they are sure to have riders involved, in fact, they could have several. Omar Fraile is sure to try again, although he seemed to struggle to go with the better climbers on Tuesday after making the initial break, Tanel Kangert might be their man instead, he was riding really well on the short stage 17 and ended up 20^th.

Cofidis came so very close today to winning the stage, Laporte narrowly denied.. They are sure to have the usual suspects get involved, Jesus Herrada, Nicholas Edet and Daniel Navarro, with Nicholas Edet my pick from that three, he seems to be getting in more breaks and finishing nearer the winner than the other two have been. 

Trek have a few possibles too with Bauke Mollema in good form, but possibly is tiring, Toms Skujins who could get in the break too and maybe even Julien Bernard. Damiano Caruso or Tejay Van Garderen are the likely lads for BMC, Tejay might be starting to recover from his crash on stage 9 and could well help power this break along to a decent gap.

EF Drapac will have Pierre Rolland and Daniel Martinez going for it, Martinez has been very prominent in the breaks and is a big price, he might give you a run for your money. Warren Barguil might also get involved, he’ll be disappointed that Alaphilippe has taken his jersey off him, he might have to settle for a stage victory instead. Maybe he’ll look to put in one massive last ride to take lots of points, there are 75pts on offer on this stage after all, if he hoovers them all up and Alaphilippe doesn’t make the break, he could yet take the jersey..!

Robert Gesink rode brilliantly on stage 16 to take 6^th place, and he also came strong at the end of the Giro this year, finishing 2^nd to Nieve on the tough stage 20 to Cervinia. Not only that, he won stage 14 of the Tour of Spain in 2016, which finished on the Col d’Aubisque, the final climb on this stage, so he knows the roads well.. At 66/1, he could well be the satellite rider Lotto Jumbo send up the road again and if the break gets a big enough lead, he'd have a chance to win the stage at a tasty 66/1.

As for the GC men, well what can we expect.. we should hope that someone like Nairo Quintana attacks early on the Tourmalet and tries to blow things up, but he crashed today and has a sore thumb, shoulder and ankle which could hamper him.

Instead, it might be up to the Lotto Jumbo guys to try to do something, with Kruijswijk and Roglic both in the top 10 they should try to go for broke early and shake things up. With Gesink up the road maybe they could join him on the descent of the Tourmalet or early on the Borderes, and try to pull out a big gap. Kruijswijk looks a lot more one-paced than Roglic though, Roglic at least attacked with a bit of power and ambition, SK's attacks were like slow motion. Roglic could like this finish if he can get a small gap at the top of the climb, he descends like a stone and they may not catch him. 

Can Tom Dumoulin try anything? It will be hard for him, but if he was to try anything it would have to be on the Col du Soulor I think, but the likes of AG2R or Lotto NL will have had to try to strip Sky of all their domestiques on the Tourmalet maybe to try to make their lead men exposed.. easier said than done though. But Tom has to take time - probably a minute out of Thomas, in order to win this race..

But going early is probably not a good idea, unless there are real distress signals coming from the Sky boys.. An attack on the Soulor, where possibly he'll have Geschke or Soren Kragh or someone like that waiting for him, they'll help him power away on the little downhill/flat/easy uphill section for 4kms before the final pull up the Aubisque, and who knows, he might start the Aubisque with 30" and it would be game on.. 

Mikel Landa and Alejandro Valverde have looked shadows of themselves, can they pull anything out of the bag on this final stage? I’m not sure.. But if Valverde can get in the break and it stays to the finish, he’d be a big danger in the sprint. If Quintana is stiff and sore in the morning it might give them the freedom to try something different.

Dan Martin has been absolutely flying on some of these climbs, he was very impressive to keep pulling away from the other GC men and hold the gap to a rampaging Quintana on stage 17’s finish. If he can attack hard on the 8% sections of the Cote du Soulor he might pull out 30” or a minute again and hold it over the top of the Aubisque, which would give him a great chance of a stage win.. he may even have Durasek or Atapuma up the road to help him. I really like his chances for tomorrow if the GC men catch the break. 

Thomas and Froome look big prices at 25/1 and 22/1 to take the stage, Thomas was flying on the stage 16 finish and Froome, well it wouldn’t surprise me to see him take a stage win as compensation for Thomas winning the race.Remember what he did in the Giro on stage 19?! If he was to do something similar he'll attack on the Tourmalet.. but it's unlikely he'll attack his own team-mate, isn't it?

Romain Bardet had a bad day on Wednesday, do we think he has recovered on time? I'm not sure.. He could well struggle again on the Soulor or the final slopes of the Aubisque if they are going flat out. Pierre Latour is fighting to defend his White Jersey, and although he struggled a little on the Portet, he did enough to still hold a 6'27" lead over our man Martin and over 8' lead over Bernal.. barring a monumental collapse, he should be safe.

But I think the break have a good chance of making it, so I’m taking a few break candidates, and if it comes to a GC sort of day, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dan Martin dance away to a second stage victory, he seems to be one of the best at accelerating away and getting a gap, and with the GC battle raging behind him they might just let him go.

Recommendations:

2pts win on Dan Martin at 9.5/1 with Betfair or 7/1 elsewhere.. The 9/1 from Will Hill didn't last long

0.5pts e/w on Rafal Majka at 14/1 with various

0.25pts e/w on Robert Gesink at 66/1 with various

0.2pts e/w on Marc Soler at 100/1 with 365

0.2pts e/w on Nicholas Edet at 150/1 with various

0.35pts e/w on Gorka Izagirre at 33/1 with various

Match Bets 

Arthur Vichot to beat Jesus Herrada - 3pts at evens (over their lifetime H2H, Vichot has won 61% of the time)

Martin to beat Bardet and Pozzo to beat Pellizotti - 3pts at evens

Add Latour to beat G Martin to make it a treble - 2pts at 1.6/1

Majka to beat Barguil and Zakarin to beat Fuglsang - 2pts at 6/4