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Published on Wednesday, 25 July 2018 22:48

TDF 2018 Stage 18

Trie-sur-Baïse / Pau

Thursday 26th July, 171kms

A brief pause in the climbing, a chance for the remaining sprinters to have a bit of fun before the pain and punishment resumes again the next day with a 200km killer to Lauruns. 

It's yet another stage that visits Pau, the third most visited town in the Tour de France's history after Paris and Bordeaux, with the race having started or finished in the town on over 100 occassions. On the flip side, the departure town of Trie Sur Baise is a TDF town for the very first time.

And I don't think there is a single rider who will not be looking forward to this stage, a bit of a rest-day in between doing battle in the mountains. The GC men can relax and recover a little as the sprinters teams maybe keep tabs on the break and possibly reel them in before the Cat 4 climb 20kms from the finish. 

Stage 17 Review

Well that grid start was a load of shit, completely pointless as the race just carried on as normal within 3kms. Riders were all over the place pretty early on, Movistar sent guys up the road and Tanel Kangert started to pull away and led by over 2 minutes in to the final climb. 

Dan Martin and Nairo Quintana attacked, Martin couldn't stay with the flying Colombian but instead of folding and dropping back in to the Sky-led peloton he rode a brilliant race to finish 2nd on the stage. Roglic tried, Dumoulin marked, Froome struggled and eventually got dropped, but not before Romain Bardet who didn't have a great day. Stephen Kruijswijk rode a great race to cement his place in the top 10, I think that bet should be safe enough now. 

And what about Geraint Thomas - incredible again, if Quintana and Martin hadn't been up the road he'd have won the stage again. The win almost looks assured now for him, he just needs to stay with 30" of Dumoulin probably in the last mountain stages and he's home and hosed. 

The Route

The stage is a strange one, thrown in between two mountain stages in the Pyrenées, a flat stage that when first revealed looked like it should end in a sprint finish. It's not far as the crow flies between the start and finish town but they take off on a horse-shoe shaped loop north, before heading south for the last 55kms. 

There is a Cat 4 climb after 52kms but it won't have any bearing on this stage, but there is another Cat 4 bump with 20kms to go that could shape the outcome somewhat. The Cote d'Anos may only be 2.1kms at 4.1%, but there is a false flat for another 6.5kms which will make it very hard for sprinters who were struggling on the climb to get back on. That tops out at Morlaas with just 12kms to go, 7kms of which are on a slope of around 4%, with one tight hairpin bend, the last 5kms are also downhill but just a very gentle slope of around 0.5%. 

There is a sharp bend with 1200m to go, but the last 500m are dead flat and straight and perfect for a fast sprint finish. 

Contenders and Favourites

There aren’t many sprinters left in the race, it could have been a very short preview this.. but are there enough sprinters left to make the sprinters teams pull back a strong break? This is the last chance for the Baraduers to get a stage win, the remaining stages are mountains or the sprint in Paris, so there should still be a big battle to get in the break and they will give it everything to stay away.

I spoke with my pro tonight and in his words "I'd say 90% chance a break survives" and followed it with "It'll be a big one". He thought the same as me, "Too many teams with nothing, and no climber, so last shot". I agreed, I think that with the rest of the stages for the climbers/GC men and sprinters in Paris, it's all or nothing tomorrow. 

With Peter Sagan battered and bruised after his crash today and with the possibility that FDJ may not have any allies following the allegations from Greipel of Arnaud Demare getting towed up the climbs again today, there may not be too many teams that are going to be able to, or want to chase. I did say it a week ago that there was a lot of resentment and suspicions about Demare and his ability to make time cuts, I don't think he has many friends in the peloton at the moment.. 

So break candidates then.. strong men, time trial type guys, that can put the power down all day.. First up, Magnus Cort and Michael Valgren – I think there will be a big break go, possibly 20 or 30 guys and Astana could have 2 or more in the break again – Valgren and Cort looked so strong on Sunday, either of them could have won. Super strong rouleurs, great finishers, they both could be involved in the break and would have a good chance at victory.

Nikias Arndt has been climbing impressively well in the last few days, he seems to have very strong legs, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him try his luck, and if it comes to a break sprint, he’d have a good chance. And even if it came to a sprint finish, he could be up there too as he still seems to be pretty strong. 

Arthur Vichot has also been riding extremely well, he finished 32^nd today on that brutally fast day of climbing, but he is also very good in breaks and in sprints against lesser sprinters. With FDJ possibly not having much confidence in Demare after two days of torture in the mountains, maybe Vichot will be let go in the hope others like UAE will take up the chasing? 

Pawel Poljanski, Maciej Bodnar or Daniel Oss could all have a go tomorrow if Sagan is not in a fit state to be contesting the stage win, Bora have been very active in breaks, they are sure to get some more guys in the break tomorrow and I’m going to take a chance on Poljanski being the one.

I’ve picked Simon Clarke before and he has started to show his nose at the front of the race a bit more in the last few days, trying to get in breaks, maybe he could sneak in this time, he’s a massive price at +$40000, he’s worth a small interest.

And Nils Politt is another I’ve had in my picks before, and he too has been trying to get in breaks without any success either. Katusha have had a horror show in this Tour so far, but Politt has the legs I think to get in a break like this and help power it along.

Thomas de Gendt is sure to fancy it too, he has tried and tried but just hasn't had any luck, nor has he looked like he has the legs either, he just hasn't been able to power away and make a break count. But even if he goes tomorrow, I'm not sure he can ride away. Jelle Vanendert has started to feature a bit more in the last few days, getting in some breaks, and this finish with the Cat 4 could see him ride away from the others late in the stage. 

QuickStep are sure to have someone involved, they want to win every stage they start, so the likes of Yves Lampaert and Niki Terpstra could be up for it, it's unlikely Alaphilippe or Jungels will go, but the two of those are very likely and very capable candidates. Yves Lampaert has been a lot more active than Terpstra and now that Bardet is out of the running more or less, Lampaert might be let get up the road. 

Toms Skujins, Jasper Stuyven, Sylvain Chavanel, EB Hagen – all are other likely break candidates at big prices you can back if you like them, they might get involved too. This doesn't really look like a stage to get heavily involved in though, it could be totally random tomorrow. 

The break has an 80% chance of making it I think, but if not, it should be a good battle between Kristoff and Demare, with a slight fancy for Kristoff seeing as he has been riding a lot better than Demare lately. But don’t be surprised to see that Sagan, in a full body cast still beats both of them.

But I'm going to cast the breakaway net and hope we get a few up the road at massive prices, with Cort as a solld bet which could win from the break or possibly even get involved in the sprint if it comes to it. 

Recommendations:

0.75pts each-way on Magnus Cort at 14/1 with Ladbrokes

0.5pts win on Michael Valgren at 66/1 with Ladbrokes

0.2pts win on Nils Politt at 300/1 with 365

0.2pts ew on Arthur Vichot at 200/1 with 365

0.2pts ew on Yves Lampaert at 50/1 with 365

0.2pts ew on Nik Arndt at 50/1 with Ladbrokes

Match Bets 

Magnus Cort to beat Sonny Colbrelli - 2pts at 4/6

Lampaert to beat Van Rensburg - 2pts at 8/11

Pasqualon to beat Dupont and Kristoff to beat Degenkolb - 2pts at 4/5