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Published on Tuesday, 24 July 2018 22:12

TDF 2018 Stage 17

Bag-de-Luchon / St-Lary-Soulan

Wed July 25th, 65kms 

The shortest stage of the 2018 Tour de France, in fact the shortest regular stage of the Tour in the last 30 years. It may be only 65kms long, but they will spend 38kms of the 65kms going uphill.

We've had short stages in races of late, we've had a stage last year that was just 101kms to Foix that saw fireworks from the start and Warren Barguil winning a four-man sprint from Quintana, Contador and Landa. We've had short stages in Paris-Nice and the Dauphiné, but nothing like this. 65kms is an easy Sunday morning spin for most of us, but then again most of us don't have to climb at 15km climb as soon as we leave the door, and climb three Pyrenéean brutes before we get home. 

And just to mix things up a little more, the ASO have introduced another gimmick to this year's Tour - there is going to be a staggered handicap-style start to the race, but instead of the higher GC riders going off last like in a TT, they are setting off first. The top 20 on GC will go first, followed by the rest of the peloton in four groups, depending on where they sit on the GC. And who knows what's going to happen once the race starts..

With only 65kms to race, some GC men will want to go straight from the gun (the likes of Landa and Quintana) but others like Froome and Uran might want to wait for some of their domestiques to catch up with them to help them out. We are sure to see every rider on the rollers for about an hour before the stage starts though, as this one is going to be fast and hard right from the start. 

There isn't going to be much of a delay between the groups, but as there is a very narrow start to the climb, and the climb starts almost straight away, it will be hard for domestiques down the rankings to move up to support their leaders. It could be brilliant, it could be a load of rubbish and we end up with just a normal peloton inside 5kms.. but I think with the likes of Landa and Quintana in the mix, we might just see the race explode from the start.

 Stage 16 Review

A crazy stage again today with farmer protests, pepper spray attacks, endless attacks for kilometre after kilometre, before eventually a massive 47-man break eventually got away. It contained almost all of my picks, including Bauke Mollema, who seemed to be going really well. Alaphilippe at times made it look like he was struggling, but he's a very canny, shrewd rider who knows exactly when to strike for maximum impact. 

Adam Yates was horribly unlucky, crashing with the race at his mercy, his backers much have been crying at the sight of him hitting the asphalt. And we were very unlucky with Mollema, despite he being in the chasing group of 4 he conspired to finish 4th to deny us the each-way pay out at 33/1. Matchbets made a small profit, overall we had a small loss. The under 148.5 finishers paid out already though, but Alaphilippe to win less than 2 stages lost, very annoying to lose it like that with Yates throwing the race to him with the finish line almost in sight.  

The Route

Just 65kms, 38kms of which are climbing, about 10kms on flattish roads, the remaining 17kms descending. The race starts out from Bagneres de Luchon and heads west all day, but a straight line it is anything but. The race zig-zags its way up and down the three hills, and it will probably feel a lot longer than 65kms to the riders, especially those out the back who will be racing to make the time cut. 

The climbing starts after just 100m of the race, and it's not gentle start, but straight on to the 14.9km long Montée de Peyragudes, which passes over the Col de Peyresourde on the way up. The Cat 1 climb is 14.9kms at 6.7%, but from km 6 to 13 on the Peyresourde it averages closer to 8%. There is a little descent on the top of the Peyresourde for less than a kilometre, then the last 1200m or so to take them over the Peyragudes. 

The Peyresourde featured in last year's Tour, that steep finish where Romain Bardet out-sprinted his rivals to take the stage and Chris Froome struggled a little and was left behind by his team-mate Landa.. I wonder what Landa will do this year on this climb and whether Froome will struggle again?

10kms or so of a descent, in to the valley for about 5kms, during which they pass through the sprint point at Loudenvielle, and on to the next climb after 30kms. The Cat 1 Col de Val Louron-Azet is 7.4kms long at 8.3% and with only 28kms to go from the top we could see some strike out for glory to try to get a head start on the final climb. The descent off the Louron-Azet is very tricky, especially towards the bottom and we could see some of the better descenders leave some of the weaker ones behind. 

A little run along the valley again, passing through Saint-Lary Soulan and about 4kms later they are on to the final climb of the day. The Col du Portet is a nasty, twisting, steep climb that averages 8.7% for 16kms, but there are lots of steep black bits on the way that average 9%, 10% and more, including the last kilometre which averages 10.2%.

The Souvenir Henri Desgrange is at the top of the Portet, which at 2,215m is the highest point in this year's race. The race starts at 15:15 local time and they expect them to be done just over 2 hours later - definitely one to watch from the start to finish if at all possible. 

Contenders and Favourites

This is a new one for all of us, how do you even begin to predict what’s going to happen today? The staggered start is going to be interesting, and as we all probably expect, and I’ve even heard the same from my secret pro, he thinks Movistar are sure to try to go from the gun here to blow things up. As for him him, he said that he was just going to ride tempo to the finish!

Movistar have Landa and Quintana in the first group, with Valverde in the second group, so I can see Movistar having 3 guys in the leading group pretty quickly. Sky also have Froome, Thomas in the first group, but Bernal is in the third group and the rest of them are a long way back, if Movistar go full gas from the start, Bernal might not catch up.

Lotto Jumbo have Roglic and Kruijswijk too in the top 10, so it is in their interest probably to team up with Movistar and try to derail Sky, Roglic could put time in to them and go very close with that TT at the end. 

So the first climb – straight from the gun riders will be under pressure and attacks will be flying off left, right and centre I think. Movistar will go hard, Sky will sit in, they only need to ride defensively and let the others wear themselves out. I think it will be hard for domestiques and lower ranked riders to make their way up and attack, and with so much at stake with so few days remaining, I think it will be a GC day.

So who will come out on top? Froome and Thomas have been so strong, they could easily win this stage, despite maybe being under attack from the off. They can follow, they can let others burn themselves off and then finish it off.. We know Froome can get stronger in the third week of a Tour, but what effect will the Giro have on him this time in the third week? And what about Thomas? He doesn’t have form in the third week of a GT.. so it’s going to be very interesting to see what happens to them. Froome is the very short 7/4 favourite, Thomas is 15/4 second favourite.. the bookies are running scared of another Sky demolition job. 

Mikel Landa will probably attack early, forcing the others to chase, if he can get Kruijswijk or someone to go with him they could well build up a decent advantage and make it all the way.. Landa has form with long-range attacks in the third week of a GT, and after a tough start to the race, he could be coming good at just the right time. I like his chances at 14/1. We also saw Kruijswijk is not averse to a long-ranger, he almost held on on Alpe d’Huez after something like 70kms solo.

Or it could be Quintana that goes, he too has done damage from long-range in the past, remember that amazing stage in the Vuelta in 2017 when Contador attacked inside 10kms of the 110km stage and Quintana went with them and they flipped the race on its head as Froome and Sky were caught sleeping. Like Landa, I think he’ll be up for it from the start, he did a long-ranger in the Tour de Suisse, maybe he was practicing for today.

And Romain Bardet could also be an aggressor and an instigator, he too wants to move up to the podium spots, he sits 3’21” down, or about 90” off the podium, if he can make a big move, with the right companions, he could make up some time.

Tom Dumoulin is apparently really looking forward to this stage, his DS says he’s going to treat it like a 65km TT, so I think he will go from the gun and try to put the others under all sorts of pressure. If he can drop a few, podium is probably secured, but also, he could drop Thomas and/or Froome and it would be game on for the remaining 40kms. The first climb is pretty steady, the last climb too, if steeper.

Maybe be can make the move on the first climb, TT up it, down the descent, along the valley and have a minute or 90” on Froome and Thomas starting the second climb. No one will pull with Thomas and Froome as they are top 2 in the GC, so they could be under a lot of pressure. He said after today's stage that he just couldn't attack today, it would have been just a waste of energy, that he was 'keeping his gunpowder dry' for the right time to attack, he didn't want to go all in just yet.. but it says to me that he is ready to go all in, just a matter of when. 

Primoz Roglic and Dan Martin could be the two rogue agents here though, sitting, watching, waiting, and ready to pounce on the last climb.. Roglic has been happy to do that so far, and attacked on the final climb on the stage to Mende, gaining some time.. He could do the same here and take the stage win and bonus seconds, which would bring him closer and closer to the Sky boys, or even Tom Dum's podium place.

Dan Martin has been on the attack a lot in this race, and might have been trying a dress rehearsal for this too in that kamikaze move on stage 15 when he put a minute in to the GC group before being caught on the descent.. Maybe he’ll try again tomorrow, he has the legs, he has the punch to attack and the gradient of the final climb should suit him too.. he could be a likely candidate to spice things up on a stage like this

Astana’s Jakob Fuglsang has had a pretty disappointing race so far, but Astana have won two stages now with Fraile and Cort landing back-to-back stages.. He too might be interested in lighting up this stage to try to move up the GC, but he hasn’t shown enough to me to say he’ll be winning this stage, his attack today with Kangert was pretty feeble.

And then you have the likes of Warren Barguil, Rafa Majka, Mikel Nieve, Guillaume Martin, David Gaudu, Pierre Rolland, Daniel Martinez etc who might be able to stay with the GC men on the climbs but it will be hard to get away unless we get a little bit of a lull in the action as the GC men take stock and look at each other for a while.. And then Barguil could be one to watch for as he’ll be after the double KOM points at the finish, I don’t think Alaphilippe will be involved so he could take the jersey and take it all the way to Paris. 

Adam Yates was one to watch I thought for tomorrow too, up until he hit the deck on the run-in today.. It's hard to see him pick himself up after that and ride well tomorrow, so therefore I think we have to take him on in matchbets, Nieve is 10/11 to beat him with Skybet, and Majka is 4/7 with 365 to beat him.

So a very hard stage to read, but I’m going to pluck for a few that I think might have a good chance of featuring and could take off on the final climb, if not sooner. I think Tom Dumoulin could go very well too on this stage, I think he's been waiting for this one and will go all guns blazing..

Recommendations:

1pt win on Tom Dumoulin at 13/1 on Betfair 

0.5pts each-way on Mikel Landa at 12/1

0.25pts win on Warren Barguil at 95 on Betfair

Matchbets

Nieve to beat Yates - 2pts at 10/11 with Skybet

Majka to beat Yates and Nieve to beat Kangert - 2pts at 11/10

add Froome to beat Thomas - 1pt at 2.3/1 with 365

Dumoulin to beat Bardet - 2pts at 4/6 with 365

Dumoulin to beat Quintana - 2pts at 8/11