- Details
- Published on Monday, 23 July 2018 07:32
TDF 2018 Stage 16
Carcassonne / Bag-de-Luchon
Tues 24th July, 218kms
Another 'transition' stage as we edge closer and closer to the Pyrenées, but this is a tough-looking stage that could be another one for the breakaway men, with the stages to come on the minds of the GC men.
Some points of note about this stage - the descent of the Col de Portet d'Aspet sees them pass the monument to Fabio Casartelli, the Italian rider who died when he struck his head on a concrete bollard at the side of the road in 1995. I remeber it vividly, I was watching it live on TV and when you saw a rider on the ground motionless with blood streaming from his head, you knew straight away it was bad.
Secondly, this finish in to Bagneres du Luchon.. who can forget what Chris Froome did here in 2016, when he took off at the top of the descent.. Some rivals like Bardet and Nairo Quintana thought he might be just trying to get ahead to eat something, grab a bottle or whatever, no need to worry. But suddenly Froome goes crazy on the descent, descending on the top tube in the manner that we are now accustomed to seeing him doing, charging in to bends, time-trialling and spinning as fast as his legs could manage, and suddenly he had a sizeable gap and they were all panicking behind.
Froome gained 13 seconds in the end on the other GC guys by the finish, and the 10 second bonus and suddenly he jumped from 6th in the GC to first, as the yellow jersey wearer Van Avermaet lost a tonne of time and slipped down. Froome was never to relenquish his hold on the jersey for the rest of the race, and he eventually extended his overall lead to 4'05" to Romain Bardet by the finish. Bagneres du Luchon was also a stage finish in 2014 when Michael Rogers won and in 2012 when Thomas Voeckler was the victor.
The weather could be an important factor too on Tuesday, storms and rain are forecast during the day, with a lot of rain possible in mid early afternoon. That could make the descents off the climbs tricky and we could see some come to grief.. certainly something for Geraint Thomas to be mindful of.
Stage 15 Review
A big break, we had all my picks bar Tomasz Marczynski in it, and even after it started to break up late on we still had Valgren, Ion Izagirre and Calmejane in with a chance for us. But with Trek, Bahrain and Astana each with two men in the lead group of 8, there was always going to be a case of cat and mouse.
Unfortunately for us, Magnus Cort Neilsen was in the group too, and when he jumped with Mollema and Ion Izagirre, Valgren had no choice but to sit up, even though he was looking the strongest of the whole lot of them. I think we were very unluky to come away empty-handed, if we'd have gone e/w on Ion we'd have been paid the e/w money at 25/1..
The big news story behind was Gianni Moscon was booted out of the race for swinging a punch at Elie Gesbert, so the Sky train has lost a strong man and are now down to 7.. There has been a big shift in prices too for the GC, with Thomas diving from 7/4 last night to 11/10 tonight, and Froome has gone the other way.. I wonder does it mean the word coming from Sky HQ was to now work for a Geraint win??
The Route
They head mostly west on this stage, slowly starting to go more south as the stage wears on. It's a tough stage from the start, with a rolling course on energy-sapping roads, which include two Cat 4 climbs in the first 72kms, and many more uncategorised little bumps. And it's a long stage, at 218kms it's the second longest stage of the race after stage 7 which is 231kms.
After the sprint point at Saint Girons after 124kms the road starts to climb as they start on the lower slopes of the double ascension of the Col de Portet d'Aspet and the Col de Menté. The Portet d'Aspet is up first and is 5.4kms at 7.1%, but the last two kilometres are much tougher, around 9.35% average. 4.5kms of a descent, 4kms on a rolling bit of flat/false flat and they start on to the Menté. This is tough - 8.1% for 6.9kms, with the last 1.5kms closer to 9% gradient.
Another 10kms charge downhill, down a very twisty descent, then around 10kms of the flatter roads and they cross in to Spain briefly after 192kms and start on the lower slopes of the final climb, the Col du Portillon. The Portillon is 8.3kms at 7.1%, but this is a pretty steady climb the whole way up, one that you can get a good rhythm going on and maintain a good steady speed. The top comes with just 10kms left, shortly after they re-enter France as they start the descent and descend all the way to the last kilometre.
The descent is tricky, with three tight hairpin bends in succession with about 5kms to go, then down in to Bagneres Du Luchon. The last kilometre is flat and if you're on your own at this stage it's pretty straightforward.
Route Map
Profile
Col de Portet-d'Aspet & Menté
Col du Portillon
Last Kilometres
Finish Map
Contenders and Favourites
Another day for the break, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the same sort of faces that have been in the last two breaks. You need to be strong to get away, and as always in the final week of a Grand Tour, the stronger guys start to feature more and more, as the weaker guys just think about surviving to Paris.
Adam Yates is favourite, but I'm not too sure about that, he has just been so poor lately how can you trust him at just 7/1?? He has been dropped on nearly every incline, but he did manage to come home with the GC group yesterday, not that that was too difficult, they weren't going full gas up the final climb.
Julian Alaphilippe is second fav at just 9/1, and to be honest, that just doesn't appeal to me either. I think there will be stronger climbers in this group than him and he could be left behind on the Portillon if some good climbers put the hammer down, they have to win on the uphill as they won't win a sprint against faster guys at the other side. And he was dropped on the Nore on Sunday, he might have been saving energy, but I think he's getting tired, my Pro said that he didn't think he'd win, as the last week has taken a lot out of him.. a lay to finish in the top 3 sounds more appealing.
Warren Barguil is 12/1, and there's a good chance he'll be trying to get in the break to take the KOM points today, especially if Alaphilippe tries to get in the break, he'll be on his tail I'd say. He needs to start racking up points today I think if he wants that jersey, stage 17 is probably going to be a GC day unless he can hang in there with the GC men, but he has a chance of going with them as he won't be too far back as he's 23rd on the GC.
If he has the legs he has a good chance of riding away from the others on the Col de Portet d'Aspet, it's pretty tough near the top, a tougher climb than the final one, so if anyone wants to break the weaker climbers, I think they have to go hard on the Portet d'Aspet. It's only 41kms to the finish, of which 21kms are descending. I hope he does go and takes the KOM points as we're on him for the jersey, I might just watch and enjoy if he does go rather than back him for tomorrow I think.
Rafal Majka was unlucky on Sunday, there was just too far to the finish once over the top, this is a lot shorter run-in, just 10kms.. He's likely to get in the break again, he seems up for it at the moment, and he seems to be climbing well too, riding away from the others in the break on the Nore.
The next in the betting like Roglic and Froome I'm not really interested in as I think the break will be let go again, it's all about the following stages for the GC men and their teams I think. One thing that is of note in this stage too of course is that they dip in to Spain for a while.. so we are sure to see some Spaniards go on the attack for that reason...
So first up, Mikel Nieve - unlucky on stage 11 to La Rosiere when Thomas the Tank flew past him in the last 500m, he had done everything right up until then. It looks like he saved the legs on Sunday as the stage was won, he rolled home a couple of minutes after the GC group. He might have his eye on this one too, wouldn't be surprised to see MS with a few riders in the break.
Next - Ion Izagirre - close, but no cigar on Sunday, outsprinted by a sprinter, what can you do... I think he has good legs and could go again, and this time he might just shake off the sprinter types on the final climb. Omar Fraile is another one I want onside, he's going well as we saw with his superb stage win on Saturday, I think he will like this course too and the visit to Spain will inspire him to get out there and enjoy the cheers for his win. 33/1 he is, bigger than the 22/1 he was when he won, so yes please.
And finally, it was a toss-up between Daniel Navarro and Jesus Herrada for Cofidis, but I'm going to side with Navarro as Herrada got in the break on Sunday but was unable to go with the better climbers and rolled home in the second group, 2'31" down.. That to me puts me off him for a stage like this, whereas Navarro gets better as a Tour goes on and this stage looks like one that he could go well on.. 80/1 will do nicely.
One other that I want to have in the book for this stage is Bauke Mollema - he was very impressive to me on Sunday, he looked like he was climbing as well as we know he can, he seems to be after recovering well from his back injury. He's still nearly 26 mins down though, despite gaining all that time, so he'll be let go again. This route looks great for him, I think he could put a lot of guys ender pressure on the final climb, and as we saw in his win in San Sebastian 3 years ago, he is a pretty decent descender when charging down to a finish.
Tom de Gendt, Lilian Calmejane, Pierre Rolland, Marc Soler, Daniel Martinez, Simon Geschke, Michael Valgrem, Magnus Cort, Andrey Amador - others to consider for sure, but I'm not sure they've got the legs for the win here.
As for the GC men, it might explode on the Nore with guys trying to test Sky again, now that they are one rider less and surely the rest of them are getting tired. Bardet will probably attack to try to gain an edge over the top he might hold on the descent, Dumoulin might have someone in the break that waits for his attack on the descent like last week,
Roglic is also another likely candidate for a flyer near the summit, he can descend like a stone too, Dan Martin is sure to try another attack, hopefully this one won't be as pointless and fruitless as the last one.. And of course, Froome has won on this descent before, don't be surprised if he makes a move that surprises everyone and he takes back a sneaky 30" from Thomas, or even worse, with rain forecast..
Recommendations:
0.5pts each-way on Bauke Mollema at 33/1
0.5pts each-way on Ion Izagirre at 25/1
0.5pts win on Mikel Nieve at 20/1
0.5pts win on Daniel Navarro at 80/1
0.5pts win on Omar Fraile at 33/1
Match-Bets
Froome to beat Quintana and Fuglsang to beat Zakarin - 2pts at 1.15/1
Navarro to beat Rolland - 2pts at 6/5
Roglic to beat Bardet - 2pts at 5/6
Nieve to beat Pozzovivo - 2pts at 4/6