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Published on Saturday, 21 July 2018 22:22

TDF 2018 Stage 15

Millau / Carcassonne

Sunday 22nd July, 181.5kms 

Another 'transition' stage, but this one has a really challenging course that could see it turning in to a great little stage, both for the stage win from a break, and possibly with some GC repurcussions.

They start in Millau, and if anyone has ever been to Millau they'll know of the Viaduc de Millau, an incredible bridge that spans the gorge du Tarn, where once upon a time, not so long ago, travellers had to go down in to Millau and up the side of the mountain at the other side in order to carry on heading south to the Mediterannean coast. The bridge was designed by British architect Norman Foster along with Michel Virlogeux, and is one of the world's tallest cable-stayed bridges.

I've done that route a number of times before the bridge was built in 2004, and that old road up the side of the hill is the way that they are leaving from Millau today.They will travel under the Viaduc, where we're sure to see plenty stunning shots of the bridge from the helicopters and below, and let's hope they don't get stuck behind an old camper van crawling up the hill like in the good old days.. 

And as they head south there are a couple of surprises thrown in to the mix - first up, after 54kms they start on the 10km long Cote de Sié, a Cat 2 climb and then after a near-60km long descent they start on the Cat 1 Pic de Nore, a 12.3km climb that averages 6.3%, and it will be where we'll see the last of the sprinters you'd think. There's still 41kms to go, but the pace is going to be very high at this point in order to not let anyone dropped back in to the mix. 

It looks like a day for the break again, they should get a good lead early on, and depending on who's in it, they will probably extend it on the Sié. The strongest of the break will make a difference on the Nore and we might see just 1 or a small number of riders come to the finish on their own to fight out the stage win. If it is a day that the GC men decide to keep the break on the leash and go after them on the Nore, then we could be looking at a reduced bunch sprint finish, so we'll be looking at strong climber types who've got a bit of a kick at the finish.. 

Stage 14 Review

Good day today again, Omar Fraile doing what Omar Fraile does best, playing it cool all day, hanging at the back of the group, skipping turns, pretending to not be able to hold the wheel and then pounce when it mattered most. You have to feel for Jasper Stuyven though, like Kruijswijk the day before, an incredibly brave effort saw him end up empty handed. Fraile made it a very exciting last 3kms though, as first he dropped De Gendt, went off on his own after Stuyven, and suddenly he had the threat of Alaphilippe coming up from behind. 

After trading down to evens in play, Stuyven crumbled up the hill as expected (it's why he never went odds-on), then Alaphilippe traded to short odds-on as he came flying after Fraile, but his charge slowed too, maybe the efforts of the last few days did take its toll on him after all. A 22/1 winner, and the matchbet double won, giving us a 7.3pt profit on the day. 

Behind them, a long way behind them, the GC men came to the hill and really charged up it. Roglic was the most impressive, skipping away up the hill, and in the process recorded a time only 9 seconds or so off Pantani's record from 23 years ago.. truly stunning. Thomas and Froome tried to drop Dumoulin, they succeeded, but like we've seen a few times now, Tom has tremendous staying power and just keeps coming back at them. 

Dan Martin had horror luck again, puncturing with less than 5kms to go, Romain Bardet, Landa, Kruijswijk and Quintana were unable to go with the yellow jersey and lost a bit of time. 

The Route

A straight line almost due south-west as they leave Millau and head up over the first climb of the day to take them out of the Gorge du Tarn, the Cat 3 Cote de Luzencon is just 3.1kms at 5.9%, but coming right at the start of the stage the pace is going to be very high with guys trying to get in the break of the day, knowing the break has a good chance of making it with the Pyrenees looming in front of them. 

It then rolls along for the next 45kms or so before they reach the Cote de Sié, a Cat 2 climb of 10.2kms at 4.9%, rising to almost 1000m. From there they are descending mostly for the next 60kms or so and with 121kms gone they pass through the intermediate sprint at Mazamet, from where the final climb of the day starts almost straight away. 

The Pic de Nore is a nasty little bump to put in before the finish, a Cat 1 climb of 12kms at 6.3%, but which actually averages around 7.5% for the first 7kms before easing back a little later in the climb. 25kms downhill on a very twisty and dangerous descent and they are on the flat run for Carcasonne. The last 10kms are more or less dead flat, but should the last kilometre be fought out by a group, the sprint is slightly uphill, only slightly, about 1.5%, but still something to remember.

There are lots of twists and turns inside the last 5kms, it was almost as if the designer of the course didn't expect a big bunch finish.. The finishing straight is only 200m long for example, after going through a roundabout, with another shap right-hander as they pass 1km to go.

Contenders and Favourites

I think today is another day for the break to make it all the way, there are a lot of tired bodies in the peloton now after this tough week with three Alpine stages and that crazy stage to Mende taking its toll. The rolling start is perfect for a break to go early on and build up a big lead, they could have 4 minutes by the bottom of the Col de Sie and 6 by the top of it, there’s no point in Sky wasting energy chasing it down

The Pic de Nore is a tough climb though, 12kms at 6.3%, with lots between 7.5-9.5% so we could see some attacks on it to try to shake out some GC men if they aren’t feeling 100%. From the top there are 41kms to go, but 35kms or so are downhill, it will be a very fast last 40kms to the line – if someone goes solo over the top and has 30” or more on the tired remnants of a break , they might hold on all the way to the line.

So break candidates – one I want to have an interest in is Thomas Marczynski of Lotto Soudal.. He looked supremely fit before the Tour started, he’s been putting his nose in some breaks without success, but I think this is more like a stage for him. He won two stages in the Vuelta last year, the first was on a similar stage to this, with a Cat 2 climb 40kms from the finish and a downhill run all the way almost. The second stage was very similar too, I remember it fondly having backed him at 150/1 for the stage.

His Polish compatriot Pawel Poljanski was with him in the break on both those stages, finishing 2^nd to him once and 4^th the other time.. They seem to like to go in breaks together, and Poljanski has been trying to get in breaks so far in this Tour too, he might try again.

Julian Alaphilippe might want to go again after the relatively easy KOM points that are out there today, and depending on who’s in the break with him, he could well hang in there over the Pic de Nore and make it to the finish, but he was in the break today and had to put in a lot at the finish, I think he’ll be too tired tomorrow.

Cofidis will try to get someone in the break of course, maybe it’s time for Daniel Navarro to try again. Fortuneo might send someone too, Warren Barguil might go if Alaphilippe goes to try to mark him for the KOM points, Barguil saved energy today by not going in the break. And Wanty Group Gobert might try to get someone in the break too, maybe Marco Minaard might go this time.

Direct Energie will want their share of the TV coverage, so expect someone like Sylvain Chavanel or Rein Taaramae, he might try again, he was unlucky on stage 11. But actually, I think I'll have a go on Lilian Calmejane again tomorrow. He might have been in the break today, but he tweeted after the stage that he was disappointed with today, but that 'tomorrow is going to be better'.

Toms Skujins might like this stage too, he’s been going ok, but has been unable to get in the right breaks lately. He might try again tomorrow and might be able to hang in there over the Nore. I thought he might go today but he didn’t get in the break, he might try again tomorrow.

Bahrain sent Gorka Izagirre up the road today, tomorrow could be the turn of his brother Ion Izagirre who will like that last climb and try and distance his break companions before the descent and finish. And Movistar might send a man in the break again, and it could be Marc Soler this time, he could well ride away from the break on that climb, he could be the best climber in the group.

Astana might send someone up the road too, seeing as Fuglsang’s GC challenge is waning, Omar Fraile took today’s stage in style, maybe instead Tanel Kangert or Michael Valgren could go again? They both have been on the attack and Valgren was great on Stage 11, just faded near the end. He might be able to cope better with this stage and could attack away on the way to the finish. The team will be buzzing now and the pressure is off, we might see more of them for the rest of this race.

Peter Sagan is the favourite of course if it comes down to a bunch (or he may even go in the break again), but will he really want to go in the break with that Pic de Nore near the finish? He knows he won't get over it with the leaders, he has the Green Jersey sewn up, so why bother tomorrow? EBH, Valverde, Van Avermaet, Fraile - all too short for me. 

So it's break lottery again, and this time I'm going to invest in Valgren, Ion Izagirre, Marczynski, Poljanski and Calmejane to see if they can give us an exciting day in the break again. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts win on Ion Izagirre at 25/1

0.5pts win on Tomasz Marczynski at 66/1 

0.5pts win on Pawel Poljanski at 80/1

0.5pts win on Lilian Calmejane at 40/1

0.5pts win on Michael Valgren at 30/1 with Betfair

Matchbets:

Thomas to beat Froome - 2pts at 8/11

Nothing else interests me