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Published on Friday, 20 July 2018 19:12

TDF 2018 Stage 14

St-Paul-Trois-Châteaux / Mende

Sat 21st July, 188kms 

This is a similar profile to stage 14 to Rodez last year, in that it starts out pretty flat, but as the day goes on it gets hillier and higher, culminating in an uphill pull to the finish. 

This is an interesting looking stage, a transition stage on their way to the Pyrenées, but a real challenge thrown in here with the rolling hills of the southern fringes of the Massif Central to contend with. It looks like a stage where we could see a break make it all the way, but if not there should be a great battle up the last hill, the Cote de la Croix Neuve. The hill averages a nasty 10.2% for 3kms, with a kilometre at 10.9%, but if you're first over the top, you still have 1500m left to hang on for victory. 

This finish is on the airport runway at Mende, and this was the scene of the famous victory by Steve Cummings in 2015 when he came out of nowhere in the last kilometre to catch Thibaut Pinot and Romain Bardet who had managed to get away from the pack.. Cummings pounced as the French duo were like rabbits in headlights and he sprinted away to victory (below). The climb is also known locally as Montee Laurent Jalabert after his win there on Bastille Day in 1995. 

Stage 13 Review

Well, we got our sprint as I predicted, seems I was in the minority with that opinion, there was a lot of love out there inexplicably for the likes of Boasson Hagen and Impey, don't understand it myself, but there you go. As it was, FDJ did everything more or less right, maybe did a bit too much work, but they still had two men in front of Demare coming in to the last 500m, and had plotted the perfect leadout. 

The only problem was Démare wasn't able to deliver, he hit the front, but Sagan and Kristoff were just too strong. Disappointing, it was pretty close. I added Kung and Politt this morning, and sure enough my man was right when he said Kung would go in the break, but unfortunately his forray off the front didn't last very long, there was not a lot of interest in getting in the break as I expected and FDJ/Bora shut it down pretty quick. 

De Gendt was in the break, which is annoying as I had him marked down for tomorrow's stage, doubt he'll go again. The matchbet double and Laporte to beat Richeze won, to soften the blow, it was a small 1pt loss or so in the end. But if you caught my tweets in-play I picked Degenkolb to finish 4th to 9th at 4/6 and EBH to finish outside the top 10 at 8/5, both of those won and it should have made it a profitable day if you took them. 

Nothing else to report really from the stage, Nibali didn't start as we know and we're down to 152 riders now, the lowest number of riders at this point in the Tour in decades.  

The Route

They head in an westerly direction predominantly, alternating between going north-west and south-west as they zig-zag through the Drome departement. The opening 90kms are rolling, tough roads, with a Cat 4 thrown in after 81kms (1km at 7.4%), quickly followed by the intermediate sprint. They're now heading north-west towards Mende and the road starts to climb and climbs steadily for the next 40kms. It peaks out with 59kms to go on the Cat 2 Col de la Croix de Berthel, with the official climb given as 9.1kms at 5.3%. 

8.5kms of a descent and on to the Cat 3 Col du Pont Sans Eau, the wonderfully named 'Hill of the bridge without water', this one is short at 3.3kms, averaging 6.3%. This is quickly followed by an uncategorised hill that drags on for about 8kms, taking them to the highest point of the day at La Baraque de l'Air. 20kms of a descent, 10kms on the flat in the run-in to Mende and they arrive at the foot of the final climb, the Cote de la Croix Neuve. 

This is a nasty finish to the day, averaging 10.2% for 3kms, with a kilometre at 10.5% and 10.9%, hitting 18% in parts.. If there is a small break comes to the finish here, we could see it blown apart as the strongest man rides away to victory. Once at the top of the hill though there's a slight downhill section for 1km, then a gentle pull up to the line for the last 700m along the landing strip of Mende Airport.  

Contenders and Favourites

Now this is an interesting little stage thrown in on their way to the Pyrénées, a stage that could be a toss-up between the break and the GC men, and I think that the break might have a good chance today of making it all the way.

I think the GC men will be looking forward to a day off and to save some energy for a blast up the final hill in Mende, some could lose/make time on that run in - it might only be seconds, but the top 3 and even top 10 could be decided by seconds in this year's race. So it’s breakaway lottery time then and I think we need some strong rouleur/climber types who can put down the big watts all day and really make it count over the last 90kms or so.

First man that sprung to mind for me was Thomas de Gendt, this looked like a profile that will suit him and I thought he'd give it a go, but he went today.. It's unlikely he'll go again tomorrow, but you'd never know with De Gendt, he knows they are all getting tired too.

Edward Theuns could get the chance to go up the road today, Dumoulin will have a day off in the peloton more or less and the likes of Soren Kragh and Geschke can look after him. Theuns tried to get in the break on Wednesday, he was one of the first on the attack but it didn’t work out for him. This is far more his sort of territory though, the rolling hills and punchy uphill finish could see him go well here today.

Toms Skujins has won on roads like this in the Tour of California, he’ll like the rolling terrain and the finish. We've seen him go in the break already in this race and climbed the easier climbs pretty well, and he's still feeling pretty good. The stage he won to Laguna Seca in the Tour of California this year was similar with lots of hills out on the course and the uphill pull before they got on to the motor circuit, this time it's on to an airstrip.. He's a big price and hopefully he can give us a run for our money..

Julian Alaphilippe and Philippe Gilbert are two more who will like this route, and I think Alaphilippe has a big chance of winning this. He will probably go in the break to pick up easy KOM points to try to stretch his lead, and not many will be able to stay with him if he kicks for home on that final hill in Mende. He's the 3/1 favourite, which is very short, but I think he has a big chance. And also, as we've backed him to win less than 2 stages, it would make sense to have a saver on him tomorrow just in case.

Gilbert also will like these rolling hills and would be suited to this finish, he could be one to try attacking on the descent down to Mende to make the rest of the break chase him to set up Alaphilippe's counter. Gilbert will find it tougher to stick with better climbers at the highest points of the stage, but if he can hang in there he has a chance. He tried a cheeky move in the last 500m today, got a small gap but was swallowed up, just testing the legs?

Warren Barguil might go, but I think he will just save energy for the big climbs next week with all the points. Omar Fraile has been anonymous in this race, we normally see more of him, but Astana have been pretty poor all round. He tends to come good later in races though, so maybe he’ll fancy it tomorrow. He's only 22/1 with Bet365 though, so I guess they feel the same, but I'm going to have a nibble anyway. 

Michael Valgren is another from Astana who could get up the road, but the final hill might be the undoing of him, unless he’s solo, he's been active in the breaks in the mountains, which was a bit of a surprise to me, and hung in there longer than others, so he clearly has good legs. He too could attack on the run-in rather than be left behind on the hill.

Peter Sagan might go in the break again, he is hunting a 4th stage win and nothing seems to faze him or stop him.. I thought he might be tired today, I thought he was way too far back with 3kms to go, but up he popped to win the stage. I think though that unless he has soloed away from his companions before they hit the hill in Mende, I think others will beat him.

Simon Clarke could give it a go for EF Drapac, they haven’t had a lot to cheer about in this race, and now with Uran out they can send men up the road and Clarke might like this course. They sent Scully away today, I think they will try with someone else tomorrow. 

With Nibali out of the race I expect Bahrain to go more on the offensive too, and the two Izagirre brothers might fancy this one. Of the two though, I’d prefer Gorka Izagirre, I think he’s more suited to this finish. But Sonny Colbrelli was very disappointed with his sprint today, he wanted to try to win to dedicate it to Nibali. He might try to get in the break tomorrow, if he does, he could pull off a Hatta Dam finish and accelerate away from the rest, or go with the likes of Alaphilippe and outsprint him at the finish. 

What about my old friend Tomasz Marczynski? I think he will get in a race-winning break at some point, so at the price I don’t want to miss him, his big engine and experience could be very important on a stage like this and we've seen him go well on stages like this in the Vuelta. 

BMC were quite active today, Stefan Kung tried to get up the road today, failed, I think he'll try again tomorrow. Schaer was the one who made the break from BMC in the end, but we could see the likes of Greg Van Avermaet try to get in the break, and might even have a chance if it comes to a bunch finish too. He was right near the front in the last 10kms and popped up to take 5th in the sprint in the end, a pretty impressive result. 

As for the GC men, there will be a battle royale up that last hill in Mende – it’s narrow, it’s steep and nasty. I have a good feeling that Tom Dumoulin will go well here and could drop Froome. Romain Bardet should go very well again like the last time, maybe even better, he’s a stronger, smarter rider now. He needs to attack hard and hope he gets a good strong guy or two come with him that can ride to the line with him.. But to win it he'd have to arrive solo I think. 

Thomas might struggle a little on the really steep parts if he’s feeling the effects of a very tough week. Dan Martin should have the kick for this finish too, maybe we’ll see him and Bardet riding away together, and he’d have the sprint to beat Bardet. But he showed signs of fatigue on Alpe d’Huez when he was dropped relatively early, that’s a little concern.

Mikel Landa and Mikel Nieve could go well too, as could Egan Bernal should they give him the freedom to attack and have a little fun, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Sky do that, just to cause a little bit of consternation amongst some of the GC men. But knowing Sky they’ll ask him to look after the top 2 in case they struggle a little.

And the three LottoJumbo guys won’t be far off, Gesink, Kruijswijk and Roglic might be in the top 10 coming in to the climb, but can any of them kick on to win it? Roglic is probably the best bet from them. Alejandro Valverde, Daryl Impey, Pierre Latour, Lilian Calmejane, Damiano Caruso and Rudy Molard are some more who could be involved from the break or at the finish, they could have a chance if you fancy any of them. 

Nairo Quintana, Adam Yates, Jakob Fuglsang, Domenico Pozzovivo don’t seem to have it in the legs at the moment, I’m not sure they can get involved.

But it’s time for the breakaway lottery I think, hopefully some will get in the break for us and give us a run for our money. I'm hoping Colbrelli can get in the break for his mate Nibali and at 150/1 he has to be backed. I'm scattering a bunch of break bets around, hopefully we'll catch a few of them in the break, but Alaphilippe is the main pick as he can win from the break or the GC group if they catch them

Recommendations:

0.3pts win on Sonny Colbrelli at 150/1

0.5pts win on Omar Fraille at 22/1

0.3pts win on Stefan Kung at 150/1

0.3pts win on Simon Clarke at 150/1 

2pts win on Julian Alaphilippe at 7/2 on Betfair

Matchbets

Latour to beat Valverde - 1pt at 7/4

Kruijswijk to beat Zakarin and Dumoulin to beat Bardet - 2pts at 11/10

add Molard to beat Vichot to make it a treble at 2.38/1 - 2pts on that too